Retro POY '94-95 (Voting Complete)
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
So if Ewing had dominated the playoffs like Hakeem, would you guys have him as your clearcut POY ?
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
So, looking further at the various defenses against Houston in these playoffs, something funny: The Spurs did the best pretty easily. Fewest points allowed, lowest TS% allowed, least 3's, lowest 3P%. Seems like Robinson's D gets a bit of a raw deal when people just look at Olajuwon's scoring. The Spurs strategy was to try to tackle Olajuwon just with Robinson, and to not let themselves get killed by the rest of the team - and it worked better than anyone else tried.
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
Silver Bullet wrote:So if Ewing had dominated the playoffs like Hakeem, would you guys have him as your clearcut POY ?
What do you mean by "dominated the playoffs like Hakeem"? Do you mean Ewing's game fundamentally changed?
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
TrueLAfan wrote:Wayne Winston? Not to be rude about it, but if you think that John Stockton was more valuable than Shaquille O’Neal--or, for that matter, Steve Nash--for the decade of the 2000s, you have to have been dropped on your head really hard several times and still be reeling around the fountain. (Okay, maybe being rude is a good call at a time like this.) It’s a classic example of someone who becomes wedded to an analytic tool to the point where he/she can’t see the obvious mistakes it’s making.
I guess you are overreacting here a bit. You know the value of APM and I guess you know the value of a good interpretation. I didn't mention that and brought in that link to make the point Stockton would be Top10 for the decade or something like that. But with a 10000 minutes sample those +8.2 are impressive, especially if we consider his age. The assumption that Stockton's impact was higher than his boxscore numbers would indicate seems reasonable.
As I said before the ON value I calculated via Oliver's ORtg and DRtg has a 0.85 correlation coefficient with OnCourt +/- and Stockton, with the playoffs games weighted 3 times as much as the regular season games, ended up having a higher ON value than Malone. Now with those APM numbers in mind from the early 00's, it seems reasonable to me that Stockton had the bigger impact on those Jazz teams during several years. It is similar to Nash and Stoudemire, just not that huge of a difference due to Malone's better defense.
Stockton lead the league that season in ts% and ast%. He had more Win Shares than Karl Malone and wasn't that far off in PER. Statistically they are closer than they should, if Malone would be the clear cut best player on that team.
I admit putting Stockton over Malone isn't really backed up with facts, but more by using several assumption. But overall I feel pretty confident doing that.
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
1. Hakeem
2. Robinson
3. Shaq
4. Malone
5. Barkley
The bulk of my thought here was on how to rate Robinson. In the end, I conclude that there's not a great reason to say he was far worse on defense than the other stars who lost to Houston. His scoring was sub-par against Houston, but we know that they swarmed him, and we know that he was dominant in the previous round. And in the comparison with Shaq, I just have a real tough time pushing someone ahead based on the post-season when his team gets swept by the team that supposedly embarassed his competitor. Robinson holds on to #2.
Honorable Mention:
Reggie - I had some serious debate in my head between Barkley and Miller. I loved the way Miller played, and think many underrate him, but in the end, I can't put him against Barkley in a year where Barkley may very well came 1 basket away from leading his team to a title.
Drexler - Played a great #2 man on the champion.
Stockton - Another great individual year, and the beginning of truly great Jazz basketball.
Ewing - Disappointing post-season, still a top 10 player.
Pippen - I feel like he gets too much credit for this year - his team was going nowhere until Jordan showed up - but I can't put anyone else ahead of him.
Shout out: KJ. My Honorable Mention is basically my 6-10 each year. I can't put Johnson in that group because of how much time he missed, but my lord was he good in the playoffs. So frustrating how injuries deprived us of amazing player.
2. Robinson
3. Shaq
4. Malone
5. Barkley
The bulk of my thought here was on how to rate Robinson. In the end, I conclude that there's not a great reason to say he was far worse on defense than the other stars who lost to Houston. His scoring was sub-par against Houston, but we know that they swarmed him, and we know that he was dominant in the previous round. And in the comparison with Shaq, I just have a real tough time pushing someone ahead based on the post-season when his team gets swept by the team that supposedly embarassed his competitor. Robinson holds on to #2.
Honorable Mention:
Reggie - I had some serious debate in my head between Barkley and Miller. I loved the way Miller played, and think many underrate him, but in the end, I can't put him against Barkley in a year where Barkley may very well came 1 basket away from leading his team to a title.
Drexler - Played a great #2 man on the champion.
Stockton - Another great individual year, and the beginning of truly great Jazz basketball.
Ewing - Disappointing post-season, still a top 10 player.
Pippen - I feel like he gets too much credit for this year - his team was going nowhere until Jordan showed up - but I can't put anyone else ahead of him.
Shout out: KJ. My Honorable Mention is basically my 6-10 each year. I can't put Johnson in that group because of how much time he missed, but my lord was he good in the playoffs. So frustrating how injuries deprived us of amazing player.
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
Silver Bullet wrote:So if Ewing had dominated the playoffs like Hakeem, would you guys have him as your clearcut POY ?
If he went on a run like Hakeem did, then yes. Kind of like Shaq in 01', who was only 3rd in MVP voting, and 2nd team All-D. His playoff performance catapulted him to the #1 spot.
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
Doctor MJ wrote:So, looking further at the various defenses against Houston in these playoffs, something funny: The Spurs did the best pretty easily. Fewest points allowed, lowest TS% allowed, least 3's, lowest 3P%. Seems like Robinson's D gets a bit of a raw deal when people just look at Olajuwon's scoring. The Spurs strategy was to try to tackle Olajuwon just with Robinson, and to not let themselves get killed by the rest of the team - and it worked better than anyone else tried.
Really good point. And also watch the youtube videos from the finals, Olajuwon wasn't able to stop Shaquille O'Neal 1on1, it was either a foul call or a rather easy bucket for O'Neal, if the Rockets didn't double.
The numbers for the finals:
28/12.5/6.3, 2.5 blocked shots per game, 60.6 ts%
vs.
32.8/11.5/5.5, 2 blocked shots per game, 51.4 ts%
The top 3 (Olajuwon, Drexler, Horry) of the Rockets and the Magic (Shaq, Penny, Grant) were rather equal, but Ellie, Cassell and Smith completely outplayed Shaw, Anderson and Scott. And yes, the guy with more assists and the higher ts% is Shaquille O'Neal. The sweep in those finals wasn't a result from Olajuwon outplaying O'Neal, but from the fact that the role players stepped up for the Rockets and those for the Magic didn't.
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
Doctor MJ wrote:The bulk of my thought here was on how to rate Robinson. In the end, I conclude that there's not a great reason to say he was far worse on defense than the other stars who lost to Houston. His scoring was sub-par against Houston, but we know that they swarmed him, and we know that he was dominant in the previous round. And in the comparison with Shaq, I just have a real tough time pushing someone ahead based on the post-season when his team gets swept by the team that supposedly embarassed his competitor. Robinson holds on to #2.
That is a team thing though. The Magic got swept by the Rockets.
Shaq and Hakeem both played great.
I don't count the Spurs' loss against Robinson. Houston defeated San Antonio.
Hakeem played great. Robinson didn't.
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
Alright well I've read all the posts and so far my list is looking like:
1. Shaq
2. Robinson
3. Hakeem
4. Malone
5. Barkley
Shaq gets the nod over Robinson for being almost as good in the regular season and better in the post season, but Robinson gets in over Hakeem because Robinson was substantially better in the RS and although the playoffs are somewhat damning I can't justify putting Hakeem over him. SAS performed the best against an extremely hot Houston team who matched up well against them. I rewatched a game today from that series (I forget which game it was though) and SAS' main strategy was to single coverage Hakeem and stop everyone else from getting hot, while Houston's plan was to swarm Robinson. I liked the comparison between Paul Pierce and Kobe, just because Pierce outplayed him in the finals doesn't mean I'd take him over Kobe for that year and this situation is similar. It's a lot more difficult to play when a team is geared towards stopping you as opposed to Hakeem where it was DRob defending and that's it.
1. Shaq
2. Robinson
3. Hakeem
4. Malone
5. Barkley
Shaq gets the nod over Robinson for being almost as good in the regular season and better in the post season, but Robinson gets in over Hakeem because Robinson was substantially better in the RS and although the playoffs are somewhat damning I can't justify putting Hakeem over him. SAS performed the best against an extremely hot Houston team who matched up well against them. I rewatched a game today from that series (I forget which game it was though) and SAS' main strategy was to single coverage Hakeem and stop everyone else from getting hot, while Houston's plan was to swarm Robinson. I liked the comparison between Paul Pierce and Kobe, just because Pierce outplayed him in the finals doesn't mean I'd take him over Kobe for that year and this situation is similar. It's a lot more difficult to play when a team is geared towards stopping you as opposed to Hakeem where it was DRob defending and that's it.
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
ronnymac2 wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:The bulk of my thought here was on how to rate Robinson. In the end, I conclude that there's not a great reason to say he was far worse on defense than the other stars who lost to Houston. His scoring was sub-par against Houston, but we know that they swarmed him, and we know that he was dominant in the previous round. And in the comparison with Shaq, I just have a real tough time pushing someone ahead based on the post-season when his team gets swept by the team that supposedly embarassed his competitor. Robinson holds on to #2.
That is a team thing though. The Magic got swept by the Rockets.
Shaq and Hakeem both played great.
I don't count the Spurs' loss against Robinson. Houston defeated San Antonio.
Hakeem played great. Robinson didn't.
I'll try to say it a little different: There are explanations for why Robinson individually doesn't look that good other than "Robinson just didn't play well", and his team did better both defensively and overall against Houston than Shaq's team did. I don't mean to confuse player success and team success, but when team strategy hangs a guy out to dry, it's very important to recognize what happened.
Now though, if by your eye Shaq played great in the circumstance, and Robinson didn't that's fine. What I'm really looking to combat is the individual stat comparison where people are speaking of Hakeem's line as proof Robinson's defense failed, when the goal is never to shut down one guy, but minimize the other team's scoring.
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
One other thing I'll mention: Houston killed San Antonio in the regular season. Pretty amazing. This is considered by many to be one of the greatest playoff choke jobs of all time, and yet the Spurs actually did better against the Rockets in the post-season than they did in the regular season.
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Doctor MJ wrote:One other thing I'll mention: Houston killed San Antonio in the regular season. Pretty amazing. This is considered by many to be one of the greatest playoff choke jobs of all time, and yet the Spurs actually did better against the Rockets in the post-season than they did in the regular season.
And Robinson did much better against Hakeem in the post season than he did in the regular season.
He put up 22 and 10 on 48% against Hakeem.
This was just a bad match up for him. The problem is, his two worst match ups (Hakeem and Malone) were both in the same conference.
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ronnymac2 wrote:That is a team thing though.
Hakeem played great. Robinson didn't.
Actually the more I watch from that series the more I get the impression that Olajuwon played great and Robinson didn't was a team thing too. Robinson defended Olajuwon more 1on1 and the Rockets doubled Robinson more often. In 1on1 situations Robinson was able to make the moves against Olajuwon and to score. The Spurs also made a couple of really dumb plays and looked somehow more nervous to me than the Rockets.
I'm one of those who are saying that Robinson's boxscore numbers are probably looking brighter than his impact was, but I have my doubts that this series should be used as a reference for Olajuwon outplaying Robinson. Even though Shaquille O'Neal looked better to me against Olajuwon than Robinson, I'm not sure whether I should put O'Neal ahead of Olajuwon. But by no means I see how someone can put Olajuwon over O'Neal. O'Neal played in 7 more games in the regular season and played better.
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Again, I don't blame Robinson because his team lost. I haven't blamed him for that. In all honesty.....Houston clearly has the better team. I mean....a bunch of clutch performers with champiosnhip experience, a very hungry Clyde Drexler stil playing like a top 10 player, and the best player in the series (before the series started) in Hakeem. Rudy T is just a decent x's and o's coach, but a great motivator. He's better than Bob Hill, for sure.
SAS had HCA, but I'm not big onto that. Houston won. They were the better team.
I also don't blame Robinson for allowing Olajuwon to score 35 a game. Throughout this thread, I haven't really mentioned anything about Robinson's D.
It's Robinson's offense. SAS can't leave Robinson out to dry here. Great offense is supposed to beat great defense. Why was Robinson so poor on offense? Why did he never take the reigns in the series? Games 5 and 6....Olajuwon took over at crucial moments. Why didn't Robinson even look to do the same in those games (offensively)? 4.5 turnovers and 2.7 assists. Bad shooting games in games 1 and 4. Game 2 is on youtube, and IIRC, his stats make him look a little better in that game, too.
Robinson's offense is the problem.
I see absolutely no good argument for Robinson over Shaq in 1995.
SAS had HCA, but I'm not big onto that. Houston won. They were the better team.
I also don't blame Robinson for allowing Olajuwon to score 35 a game. Throughout this thread, I haven't really mentioned anything about Robinson's D.
It's Robinson's offense. SAS can't leave Robinson out to dry here. Great offense is supposed to beat great defense. Why was Robinson so poor on offense? Why did he never take the reigns in the series? Games 5 and 6....Olajuwon took over at crucial moments. Why didn't Robinson even look to do the same in those games (offensively)? 4.5 turnovers and 2.7 assists. Bad shooting games in games 1 and 4. Game 2 is on youtube, and IIRC, his stats make him look a little better in that game, too.
Robinson's offense is the problem.
I see absolutely no good argument for Robinson over Shaq in 1995.
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mysticbb wrote:Actually the more I watch from that series the more I get the impression that Olajuwon played great and Robinson didn't was a team thing too. Robinson defended Olajuwon more 1on1 and the Rockets doubled Robinson more often. In 1on1 situations Robinson was able to make the moves against Olajuwon and to score. The Spurs also made a couple of really dumb plays and looked somehow more nervous to me than the Rockets.
Why didn't he do anything about that though? Big men have been getting doubled since before Wilt Chamberlain. They performed though. Robinson didn't.
He didn't perform well against double teams meant to take away his offense. He's an offensive star....he should be able to handle that and perform well enough individually. Effect on the game. He faded.
Three other post players that postseason played well against that same HOU team. Robinson is the only one whose offense was silenced.
Pay no mind to the battles you've won
It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle
Open your heart and hands, my son
Or you'll never make it over the river
It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle
Open your heart and hands, my son
Or you'll never make it over the river
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ronnymac2 wrote:Why was Robinson so poor on offense? Why did he never take the reigns in the series?
Robinson's offense is the problem.
Those are valid concerns. To cite Dean Oliver:
Robinson was doing well, but he wasn't carrying his team. Whereas Nowitzki's win—loss percentage came down as he assumed a greater leadership position with the Mavs-—-and the team matched his record—Robinson's win-loss record remained above the team's throughout the time that the team needed him to carry them. Robinson always took the smart shot, but maybe not the big shot.
If he'd created more, his offensive rating would have come down. but the team might have won more. its an odd argument, and they are odd numbers. Don‘t get me wrong—Robinson is perhaps one of the ten best players ever, but so many other great players, players who haven't been subject to the nagging questions about leadership, have win-loss records that match their team totals.
Dean Oliver, Basketball On Paper, pp248
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ronnymac2 wrote:Why didn't he do anything about that though? Big men have been getting doubled since before Wilt Chamberlain. They performed though. Robinson didn't.
Actually I agree with you, I just wanted to point out that the series between the Rockets and the Spurs is not as good of an indicator for Olajuwon being better than Robinson as most people are thinking (and using it).
Btw: I switched O'Neal to #1 and Robinson to #2.
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Doctor MJ wrote:1. Hakeem
2. Robinson
3. Shaq
4. Malone
5. Barkley
The bulk of my thought here was on how to rate Robinson. In the end, I conclude that there's not a great reason to say he was far worse on defense than the other stars who lost to Houston. His scoring was sub-par against Houston, but we know that they swarmed him, and we know that he was dominant in the previous round. And in the comparison with Shaq, I just have a real tough time pushing someone ahead based on the post-season when his team gets swept by the team that supposedly embarassed his competitor. Robinson holds on to #2.
Honorable Mention:
Reggie - I had some serious debate in my head between Barkley and Miller. I loved the way Miller played, and think many underrate him, but in the end, I can't put him against Barkley in a year where Barkley may very well came 1 basket away from leading his team to a title.
Drexler - Played a great #2 man on the champion.
Stockton - Another great individual year, and the beginning of truly great Jazz basketball.
Ewing - Disappointing post-season, still a top 10 player.
Pippen - I feel like he gets too much credit for this year - his team was going nowhere until Jordan showed up - but I can't put anyone else ahead of him.
Shout out: KJ. My Honorable Mention is basically my 6-10 each year. I can't put Johnson in that group because of how much time he missed, but my lord was he good in the playoffs. So frustrating how injuries deprived us of amazing player.
Why isn't anyone considering Barkley's injury (knee) in the postseason?
I know people have different criteria, but I believe the majority of the group has essentially DQed people who can't go in the playoffs...and Barkley was a shell of himself by the end of the Houston series. He struggled mightily in G5 and the result was just a bad game (his defense was probably even worse than usual) and in G7 he could barely get a shot off. There was a reason it became an isolation game of KJ vs. Kenny Smith. Barkley showed great heart grabbing rebounds at the end of that series, but to me, a healthy Charles Barkley easily sends Phoenix to the next round. It was a fairly serious drop in play due to that injury, and I'm amazed so many people have him over Ewing, Pippen, Stockton (my final cut for the 5th spot) or even Miller or Drexler (spectacular playoff run too). He could barely jump by the end of the series.
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
Mysticbb- Well at this point, I'm mainly arguing O'neal vs. Robinson. I still haven't seen an argument for Robinson for O'neal.
Oliver's theory sounds interesting. I definitely agree that taking risks in basketball is something stars need to do. They need to put their ass on the line. Robinson wasn't like that.
Oliver's theory sounds interesting. I definitely agree that taking risks in basketball is something stars need to do. They need to put their ass on the line. Robinson wasn't like that.
Pay no mind to the battles you've won
It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle
Open your heart and hands, my son
Or you'll never make it over the river
It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle
Open your heart and hands, my son
Or you'll never make it over the river
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Re: Retro POY '94-95 (ends Wed morning)
1. Hakeem Olajuwon
2. David Robinson
3. Shaquille O'neal
4. Karl Malone
5. Charles Barkley
2. David Robinson
3. Shaquille O'neal
4. Karl Malone
5. Charles Barkley