Retro POY '94-95 (Voting Complete)

[ElGee]

Here is my ballot right now. This is not my vote:

1. Hakeem
2. Shaq

I could change my mind here. Shaq had a far better RS than Hakeem. Hakeem did have a better conference playoff than Shaq, but I'm not at all convinced Hakeem outplayed him in the finals. It has been years since I've seen this series outside of Game 1. Does anyone have a link to Games 2-4?

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3. Robinson: The best player in the RS. He had one monster series against LA.

4. Malone: 95 Jazz did disappoint in the PS, but he played great in that series. Their failure was mainly due to Stockton playing poorly. This was also Utah's best shot to win a title and one of the reasons I have little sympathy for Jazz fans who talk about Jordan. The 95 rockets are maybe the weakest champion of the last 30 years and they couldn't even beat them.

Also open to changing my mind here

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5. Barkley

I'm leaning towards Barkley here. Ewing, Payton and Stockton disqualified themselves due to their playoff performances. Barkley himself played poorly in the Phoenix series, but as Kamia pointed out he was injured. Still Barkley's injuries may be due to his conditioning. Does anyone know exactly what happened to him?

He had an injured knee - I have no recollection of how he injured it, but he couldn't jump by the end of the series. It led to turnovers, horrible shots, and just offensive discombobulation on possessions where he tried to force the issue in the last few games of the series.

I'm not sure if exacerbated the problem in G6, but he didn't look completely healthy in G5 but could still player fairly normally (as evidenced by his G6 line). But by G7, he actually left the game at the end of the first half to (presumably) get early treatment in the locker room.

It's certainly an excuse if we look at his career arc, but it's a problem in the POY vote because how in the world could someone win with Charles Barkley in that condition?? HIs rebounding performance was amazing heart, but other than that he was a disaster. Games 5 and 7 are up on youtube to see, and I think it's a real issue for sliding Chuck into the #5 spot over some of those others guys.

[Gongxi]

I'm really unsure how someone can put Shaq lower than #2. If you prize winning, whatever, you all know how I feel about basing individual players on that, but okay you have Olajuwon first. But then Shaq's team advanced further than Robinson's...you want to say well, they both lost to the same team, okay, but you can't give Robinson the nod for that. Then statistically Shaq played nearly to Robinson's level in the regular season and then markedly better in the playoffs. So...

Likewise, if you're gonna go with straight production over the course of the whole season, regular season and playoffs, I think you should go Shaq first, but even if you decide to weight it differently, it should be Shaq second. I'm just not understanding how the same system that is putting Olajuwon over Robinson so consistently- and particularly at #1- can then put Robinson over Shaq. It just doesn't add up. Can anyone educate me about this?

[ronnymac2]

^^^Nah, it seems as though nobody wants to answer that question.


Somebody....anybody.....why put David Robinson over Shaquille O'neal?

[lorak]

For example because of better regular season, better defense and Spurs weren't sweept by Rockets.

[ronnymac2]

Please explain further. Better regular season? How? Robinson was a better player? More productive?

Better defense? Isn't that countered by Shaq's better offense?

Spurs weren't swept by the Rockets......well, that's nice. You're going by team accomplishments. Either way, Shaq and Robinson lost. At least Shaq made the NBA finals. At least he didn't lose his own matchup at C on the biggest stage.

[Gongxi]

Still, even if they have Robinson over Hakeem, one can only imagine they're going the straight statistics (erroneously, in my eyes, but whatever). Alright, but then how to justify throwing Hakeem in between them? I thought we were going by stats?

I can see an argument for Hakeem, and I can see an argument for Robinson. But neither of those arguments allow for the other to be second- they both seem to indicate Shaq should be second.

I mean, if I like writing with a marker because it's bold and very dark, I'm gonna go ahead and assume a ballpoint pen should be 'ranked' second and then a pencil last. If I like being able to easily correct my work, I should rank the pencil first, but the marker doesn't come in second- the pen does; the marker's last. At no time in either argument should you rank the pencil and the marker 1-2 or 2-1. The pen combines both of their strong points (or weak points). That's Shaq this season. No matter which way you slice it, he's at least 2.

[lorak]

By stats (RS+PS – look at mysticobb’s post) it’s 1. Robinson, 2. Shaq, 3. Hakeem. But these stats are mainly offensive stats. In terms of defense its tie between Robinson and Hakeem and Shaq is third. And there’s team achievement – something what seems to be important in this project. So here it’s clearly 1. Hakeem and IMO 2. Robinson. Because of 4-2 vs sweep, because of West was stronger conference (Magic 1st round opponent had below .500 record). But what the hell, lets say that Shaq is 2nd here.

So
Robinson 3 points (1st place in stats) + 1.5 (defense)+ 1 team = 5.5
Hakeem 1+1.5+3 = 5.5
Shaq 2 +1+2 = 5

HO and DR are tied, but Olajuwon outplayed him and that’s the reason why I put Hakeem at number 1 this year. Robinson is second and obviously Shaq 3rd.

[ElGee]

My 1995 POY Ballot:

1. Hakeem Olajuwon
2. Shaquille O'Neal
3. Karl Malone
4. David Robinson
5. Scottie Pippen

Explanation pending.

[An Unbiased Fan]

1) Hakeem - Good RS, Historic PS.

2) DRob - Great RS, would be #1 many other years. Fell short in the PS losing with HCA

3) Shaq - Great year, but his RS wasn't as good as DRob's, nor his PS as good as Hakeem's. I felt the sum of all their RS+PS puts him in 3rd.

4) Stockton - All-NBA 1st, All-D 2nd. 12.3 apg, the #2 was almost 3 behind. 54% FG, 65% TS, 45% 3pt. Shooting dropped in the PS and the Jazz got bounced with HCA.

5) Malone - All-NBA 1st. Solid RS, but shooting efficiency dropped significantly in the PS and the Jazz lost with HCA in the 1st round.

[sp6r=underrated]

I am admittedly opposed to Stockton over Malone this year, especially when Stockton suffered the bigger decline in the playoffs.

Since voting is coming to an end here is my ballot

1. Hakeem
2. Shaq

I went back and forth on this one. There are strong arguments for both players. For Hakeem there is the defensive advantage, and the fact Hakeem had a better overall playoff than Shaq when you look at conference playoffs. Also his team did defeat Shaq's. Shaq's argument is that he outplayed Hakeem by a significant margin in the RS, and arguably outplayed Hakeem in the finals. I couldn't decide so I just went with the consensus.

3. Robinson: I think Kamia is right that there is a major flaw in Robinson's game that does diminish his statistical impact. I do think with proper management that acquired a near dominant guard, which Robinson didn't have in his prime, that flaw could have been overcome and he could have been the best player on a near-dynasty level team. He was good enough to lead his team to 55+ with a pretty average supporting cast, which allowed SA to face weak 1st round teams. That is very valuable.
4. Malone: I think it is a hard sell vaulting Malone over Robinson this year.
5. Barkley: I strongly considered Ewing here, because of Barkley's injury. But I wasn't impressed with Ewing's play that year in the post-season, and I can't justify vaulting Ewing here, despite the fact that it is my preference.

[kaima]

By stats (RS+PS – look at mysticobb’s post) it’s 1. Robinson, 2. Shaq, 3. Hakeem. But these stats are mainly offensive stats.

There's a big problem with that, mainly because the stats say Robinson was the best offensive player, but film and skillset analysis would tell anyone that he was the worst.

And it's not an inversion where Robinson is close, as the other two are on stats, but instead a blowout that places Shaq and Hakeem in an entirely different tier of stars.

Of the four other guys in my top five, Robinson is the least deserving -- by a lot, a lot, a lot -- when analyzing offensive ability.

In terms of defense its tie between Robinson and Hakeem and Shaq is third. And there’s team achievement – something what seems to be important in this project. So here it’s clearly 1. Hakeem and IMO 2. Robinson. Because of 4-2 vs sweep,

To me, it still comes down to the apparent nature of those losses.

The Magic got worked despite Shaq. The Spurs went down because of Robinson V Hakeem.

[kaima]

Why isn't anyone considering Barkley's injury (knee) in the postseason?

That's part of my argument for him.

The Suns were so close with Barkley injured. He also did everything possible while beat up, and still put up impressive numbers overall.

Barkley probably put up a better fight in his sorry state than Robinson did while relatively healthy.

It comes down to Pippen, Barkley and Stockton for 5.

I wouldn't strongly disagree with any of them.

[drza]

This has been a harder year than I would have anticipated, and despite still being unable to participate much in the discussion (I can't WAIT until I get this poster and report done at work) I've enjoyed reading the thread. Before looking back at the year, I expected to have Olajuwon first by a mile just off of my general memory of their head-to-head matchup, with Robinson and Shaq slotted in somewhere behind him.

But there have been some really good arguments in this thread for all involved that have made me really think about my stance. The posts about the Spurs' strategy (stop everyone else) vs the Rockets' strategy (swarm Robinson) have really given me pause. I definitely like to use analytical tools to support my opinions, and according to the three advanced box stats I've got access to (PER, Win Shares, Wins Produced) Robinson and Shaq were a cut above Olajuwon in the regular season. But the unique situation where all three played essentially round-robin elimination head-to-head is almost unique in history and gives another perspective to the stats. And Olajuwon wasn't THAT far behind them in the regular season that he couldn't possibly bridge the gap.

No matter what order I use, I won't be completely satisfied. The Shaq arguments in this thread have convinced me that he has a legit shot at #1 as well, when I didn't really feel that way entering the project. But I feel like the argument that he was 2nd in the regular season and 2nd in the postseason, so he should be 2nd overall...it doesn't really work for me, because the two guys that he's competing against were both first at least once.

Essentially, what it comes down to for me is that if they had not all played head-to-head, I would have probably ranked them Robinson/Shaq/Olajuwon based upon their full season. But Olajuwon's ridiculous postseason gets even more over-the-top when you consider that it was actually against both of these guys, and despite the sound logic about coaching/team strategies I haven't been able to talk myself out of the gut reaction that Hakeem beat both guys head-to-head with dominant personal performances. So he jumps from 3rd to 1st. Robinson and Shaq behind him, in that order.

As for the rest, it seems that Malone is the other consensus top-4 player in this thread. Before I don't know that I would have had a clear separation between him and some of the others, but the numbers and the arguments I've read make him a reasonable choice at 4.

There are a few options at 5, but I think I'm leaning Pippen. Pippen, Ewing and Barkley all get consideration here, but I really like Pippen's combination of defense, versatility and ability to carry a heavy team load. It bears mention that this was the year that Pip led his team in all-5 major categories, a unique accomplishment that I'll use as a tie-breaker for that 5th slot.

1) Hakeem
2) Robinson
3) Shaq
4) Malone
5) Pippen

[kaima]

1) Hakeem - Good RS, Historic PS.

2) DRob - Great RS, would be #1 many other years. Fell short in the PS losing with HCA

Looking at his three peak years, I find that hard to believe.

Everybody votes differently in the context of reasoning, however big or small the gap, but the Hakeem standard of matchup defenestration was a yearly event during Robinson's peak.

Robinson also had only one good series in the playoffs, treating Vlade like Hakeem treated him.

Against Denver, he put up 19 ppg on 43%. Admittedly, this can be mitigated and traced to the fact that the Spurs won relatively easily.

3) Shaq - Great year, but his RS wasn't as good as DRob's, nor his PS as good as Hakeem's. I felt the sum of all their RS+PS puts him in 3rd.

But Shaq, likewise, had the most balance between the two seasons. He played well in the post-season, and against Hakeem.

[CellarDoor]

1. Hakeem. That seems to be the consensus, so I won't argue too much here.
2. Shaq. He got farther in the POs and was more imposing at all times despite stats.
3. DRob. I can't justify putting him any lower.
4. Malone. Same thing here, he was just too good too consistently.
5. Pippen. Trust me, this isn't a compliment even though I'm a big fan. I couldn't find anyone worth the 5th spot. Can I just give the first four .25 extra each or something?

[Doctor MJ]

Why isn't anyone considering Barkley's injury (knee) in the postseason?

I know people have different criteria, but I believe the majority of the group has essentially DQed people who can't go in the playoffs...and Barkley was a shell of himself by the end of the Houston series. He struggled mightily in G5 and the result was just a bad game (his defense was probably even worse than usual) and in G7 he could barely get a shot off. There was a reason it became an isolation game of KJ vs. Kenny Smith. Barkley showed great heart grabbing rebounds at the end of that series, but to me, a healthy Charles Barkley easily sends Phoenix to the next round. It was a fairly serious drop in play due to that injury, and I'm amazed so many people have him over Ewing, Pippen, Stockton (my final cut for the 5th spot) or even Miller or Drexler (spectacular playoff run too). He could barely jump by the end of the series.

I'm really not understanding. Barkley averaged 25 & 13 in the playoffs. He only had 3 games scoring less than 20 points, and on 2 of those games he scored 15+ and had 20+ rebounds. I'm reluctant to read too much into one poor playoff series in general, and Barkley you wouldn't even know he was injured by looking at the stats. How much do you think I should be penalizing the guy?

[ronnymac2]

By stats (RS+PS – look at mysticobb’s post) it’s 1. Robinson, 2. Shaq, 3. Hakeem. But these stats are mainly offensive stats. In terms of defense its tie between Robinson and Hakeem and Shaq is third. And there’s team achievement – something what seems to be important in this project. So here it’s clearly 1. Hakeem and IMO 2. Robinson. Because of 4-2 vs sweep, because of West was stronger conference (Magic 1st round opponent had below .500 record). But what the hell, lets say that Shaq is 2nd here.

So
Robinson 3 points (1st place in stats) + 1.5 (defense)+ 1 team = 5.5
Hakeem 1+1.5+3 = 5.5
Shaq 2 +1+2 = 5

HO and DR are tied, but Olajuwon outplayed him and that’s the reason why I put Hakeem at number 1 this year. Robinson is second and obviously Shaq 3rd.

The stats are close enough where using a points system like that isn't exactly great logic either. I can compare Malone to Rodman on offense that way, and Malone ends up getting 2, and Worm 1. Bigger difference than that.

Robinson is clearly superior on defense, but Shaq, more importantly, is better on offense. That goes beyond the stats. There is no way Robinson is a better offensive player. You can't analyze their games on the court and tell me that Robinson is a more effective offensive player.

I don't care about team success, but there is no way in hell that Robinson should get credit for taking HOU to six games and Shaq should get discredited for getting swept. That is illogical.

[mysticbb]

There's a big problem with that, mainly because the stats say Robinson was the best offensive player, but film and skillset analysis would tell anyone that he was the worst.

Well, the basketball game itself is not just about "having more skills", but about efficiency. How efficient can a player be while using his skillset. Robinson was far more efficient, is offense was well suited for game, especially in the regular season. And as not only I pointed out in the games between the Rockets and the Spurs the game plan for the Spurs was more about stopping everyone else and defend Olajuwon 1on1. Someone said already that the Spurs overall did a better job defensively against the Rockets than other teams. On the other side the Rockets focussed more on stopping Robinson and Olajuwon got way more help for that.
Also in the finals Olajuwon looked worse 1on1 against Shaq than Shaq looked against Olajuwon.

I really don't see how Olajuwon can be ahead of Shaquille O'Neal when he played in reality not as good in the finals against O'Neal, while for Robinson and Olajuwon is the 1on1 duell used.

[ElGee]

Why isn't anyone considering Barkley's injury (knee) in the postseason?

I know people have different criteria, but I believe the majority of the group has essentially DQed people who can't go in the playoffs...and Barkley was a shell of himself by the end of the Houston series. He struggled mightily in G5 and the result was just a bad game (his defense was probably even worse than usual) and in G7 he could barely get a shot off. There was a reason it became an isolation game of KJ vs. Kenny Smith. Barkley showed great heart grabbing rebounds at the end of that series, but to me, a healthy Charles Barkley easily sends Phoenix to the next round. It was a fairly serious drop in play due to that injury, and I'm amazed so many people have him over Ewing, Pippen, Stockton (my final cut for the 5th spot) or even Miller or Drexler (spectacular playoff run too). He could barely jump by the end of the series.

I'm really not understanding. Barkley averaged 25 & 13 in the playoffs. He only had 3 games scoring less than 20 points, and on 2 of those games he scored 15+ and had 20+ rebounds. I'm reluctant to read too much into one poor playoff series in general, and Barkley you wouldn't even know he was injured by looking at the stats. How much do you think I should be penalizing the guy?

As I said, I don't remember the circumstance behind that injury and what happened in game 6. But, I am definitely colored negatively by that injury after having watched both G5 and G7.

You might look in the box score and see 17 and 12 and think everything looks normal. But even in G5, he physically didn't seem right. His game 5 was actually horrible -- 1-6 from the line, 6 turnovers and a number of defensive breakdowns. Furthermore, Houston ran a double at him and he would get stuck and have nowhere to go, sometimes forcing a bad shot, other times finally settling on passing it to Klein or Schayes at 18 feet. It wasn't pretty.

Then G7 was what really concerned me. He literally couldn't jump, so I'm not sure how Phoenix would have been able to get a good series out of him with the WCF tipping 48 hours later. You may see 18 points, 23 rebounds (and it was all heart sneaking into position on some of those boards) but he struggled mightily on both ends. 7 turnovers, a few more defensive breakdowns, creating little offense for his teammates because he couldn't move well or jump (Houston need not double). Down the stretch he threw up an air ball, was stripped, tried to drive and aimlessly threw the ball out of bounds (he went to jump and couldn't) and missed a box out on Horry but then fouled him on the rebound for an and-1. Walton said he had 2 fourth quarter FG's in the first 6 games of the series.

Now, the question might be how much to factor all of that in because it's over such a small time frame. My concern is when it happened and how he played. This wasn't Kobe missing a game or two in the series, but seemed to be something that severely limited him over a number of games and would have been a major factor going forward.

I just see him as clearly behind that first group of 4 anyway, so I'm surprised more people aren't factoring this in with Barkley when deciding about #5.

[Doctor MJ]

So last thought: I've been spending more time thinking about Robinson vs O'Neal. I'm still torn, but times up. In the end, my perspective is one where I had Robinson rated ahead of O'Neal in the regular season, so does O'Neal do enough to move past him in the playoffs? I'm not convinced enough to do that, the two put up comparable points, rebounds, win share rates (and Robinson's ahead in blocks & rebounds). Shaq's main claim is how he did better against a common opponent, but as mentioned, there are arguments for why that's not so damning against Robinson, and Shaq's team got swept. To be clear, I'm not dropping Shaq because his team got swept, I'm just reluctant to move a guy ahead on the basis of a series where his team got beaten easily.