Trade Idea: New Orleans-Minnesota

[younggunsmn]

I don't think NO are going to part with the #11 without getting the #16 back in such a deal.

That deal is worth almost 12 million dollars to them when you figure in the luxury tax.

[younggunsmn]

Am I the only one who thinks NO would be better off dealing Peterson at the deadline and keeping that pick?

They will pay even more at the deadline for 6.2 million in raw cap space, likely multiple picks with little protection. We're talking a Kurt Thomas level sale here.
Selling #11 allows a team buying to know what they're getting. Who knows what their future picks will be like. That makes it a ton more valuable.

[Foye]

Am I the only one who thinks NO would be better off dealing Peterson at the deadline and keeping that pick?

They will pay even more at the deadline for 6.2 million in raw cap space, likely multiple picks with little protection. We're talking a Kurt Thomas level sale here.
Selling #11 allows a team buying to know what they're getting. Who knows what their future picks will be like. That makes it a ton more valuable.

Or they might actually get a useful player on a multi-year deal in return if their ownership fiasco has solved by then. Chouest has a lot more money than Shinn so he might be willing to pay the tax.

[younggunsmn]

Maybe. That is an awful lot of money to lose though. They aren't exactly selling out the place.
If they keep their pick and don't move any contracts they are looking at a payroll of 75 million, plus the luxury tax (7-8 million), plus giving up their share of the luxury tax pot.

[shangrila]

Eh, it depends on what they're going for really. If they just want depth then they can get it at 16 with all the big men around. And Hollins, while trash, is still a body they can throw on the court and maybe bulk up to be a poor man's Chandler. And maybe they'd even keep Gomes.

But if it's a huge issue I could be convinced to take Posey instead, but I agree they'd need to get the 16th back.

[shrink]

Ooooh! You know how I love a cap space deal!

1. I don't know how big the talent gap is between 11 and 16, so I can't fairly evaluate the trade.

2. Timing is a big issue here. Gomes only has value to NOH if they can cut him before 6/30. Unfortunately, we won't know at the time if we can trade our entire cap space for far better value, perhaps to CHI, MIA, NYK etc. This wouldn't be trading a bird in the hand for one in the bush .. there'd be a flock of birds in that bush.

3. Many teams over the cap prefer to adopt an approach where they say it'll cost less to move him for cap space at the trade deadline, when only a third of his contract needs to be paid. For example, they may say that

MoPete (with $2 mil left on his deal) + $3 mil in cash for $6.2 mil cap space

.. is a free $1 mil to some team, and deals like this do get done at the deadline. The problem here is that we really don't have an idea who's going to have that much cap space, and there are several teams that are over the lux that may be competing for it.

This Summer there will be a lot of teams under the salary cap, and many will grab free agents to fill their roster up to the cap (say $56 mil). For other teams, the question will be whether they really want to run a team at, say, $42 mil in payroll, and generally get stomped by most teams? Or are they more likely to try to fill their roster with the plethora of other free agents? People forget that teams got their cap space by having many decent players expire - not just elites, and these other players are not going to want to simply end their career. The labor market is full, even after the LeBrons have signed, and buyers will have money. I think its a big risk for all of the teams struggling with the lux to just assume they can get cap space cheaply later.

Lastly, NOH has a decent front office. They desperately needed to get under the lux last season, and probably go far under for the cheap Shinn to keep the team, but his staff was able to get under the lux without touching either Chris Paul or their pick. I would have thought that impossible before the season, but they crept through. Now though, Shinn sold the team to Chouest, a billionaire who has deep pockets and local ties. I think he may be willing to run the risk, rather than show fans his first move is one to save money.

[Dewey]

New Orleans gets:
Ryan Gomes
Ryan Hollins
16

Minnesota gets:
Morris Peterson
11

Reason - New Orleans cuts immediate salary while only moving down a few spots in the draft, allowing them to not worry about the luxury tax and Minnesota moves up to get their guy (I'm assuming it's George) while taking on a veteran with experience.

I could see the Hornets wanting to get rid of Posey instead of Peterson here, but I thought that might be a little much from our end.

Done. MN needs a veteran at this position, especially, when holding an expiring contract.