Football world cup Group D discussion (Ger/Aus/Ser/Gha)

[Slava]

Schedule

13/06 13:30 Durban Germany vs Australia
13/06 09:00 Tshwane/Pretoria Serbia vs Ghana
18/06 06:30 Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth Germany vs Serbia
19/06 09:00 Rustenburg Ghana vs Australia
23/06 13:30 Johannesburg - JSC Ghana vs Germany
23/06 13:30 Nelspruit Australia vs Serbia

**All times CST

[Foye]

I think Germany and Ghana will make it through.

[Sleepy]

Australia doesn't scare me one bit. Long, high balls to Joshua Kennedy? That's probably the only thing we can defend... and Craig Moore will have all kinds of fun with Marko Marin and Mesut Özil. I like the Socceroos, I like what they did to Italy in 2006, but I can't see them doing much damage next week.

Ghana and Serbia both hat pretty bad friendlies last week. Ghana lost 4:1 to the Netherlands. They needed a WTF-moment by the dutch defense to score and could've easily conceded a few more goals if the Netherlands hadn't subbed their entire team out. Serbia couldn't score vs. Poland and their coach acknowledged that he really hasn't found a working system on offense yet. I think Serbia will advance based on their defensive strength and scrappines, which could also hurt Germany.

Germany has looked really well in the last few games, which is kinda unusual for us. I didn't really expect much of this squad, it's young and inexperienced and was hit pretty hard by injuries, but they have shown some remarkably good football. Jogi Löw is probably one of the better coaches of the Cup, who has really made strides since 2008. It took him 2 years to fully implement the tactic that was created on the fly against Portugal, but now the players seem to have internalized the 4-2-3-1 and execute it well. We could use a strong striker upfront, preferably a false-nine. Klose has been soo freaking bad these last games and while I think he could've played that role 2-4 years ago, we just have to admit that he's past his prime and can't keep up with the pace and speed this new German sytem needs. Give Ivicia Olic or Wayne Rooney a germman passport and it's over... otherwise, we gotta hope that Helmut Cacau starts and takes over the role as the hardworking striker.

Lineup is set except 3 positions. Leftback, Striker and Right Wing.

-----------------Neuer-----------------
--Lahm--Mertesacker--Friedrich--(Badstuber)
--------Schweinsteiger--Khedira--------
(Müller)--------Özil-----------Podolski
---------------(Cacau)-----------------

Instead of Badstuber, we could go for more offense and use Aogo or, to make it suicidal, Jansen. Müller is the best choice as a starter, making Marin the 12th man and joker to take over on offense when the opposing defense is slightly tired and there's some space on the pitch. Cacau is my choice for the striker spot, but I could see Jogi going with Klose, just because it IS Klose after all.

[Foye]

Joshua Kennedy will strike us out of the WC after scoring like 1 goal every season here in Germany

Still think Jerome Boateng is the better choice as a full back than Arne Friedrich. Friedrich/Mertesacker both are not very fast, technically not brillant and will have trouble with more skilled strikers after the group stage. IMO Badstuber isn't really the role model left wing back either.
He doesn't do much offensively and if he does try to do sth. offensively he's slow on getting back on defense. He's best suited as a full back as well. While I can see that Löw didn't want to play a rather unexperienced player next to Mertesacker as a full back I think it would be the better decision to go with Boateng. That defense already makes me shiver a little bit.

Lahm - Boateng - Mertesacker - Aogo (Badstuber) would be my prefered line-up defensively.

Podolski has looked good the last few games (like he usually does when playing for the national team unlike the club team - I think this dude has a motivational problem for the league routine. I remember how he used to play better in European competitions for Munich as well as in the league ). I would probably keep him in the starting line-up with Marin coming of the bench after like 60 minutes.

Not sure if Cacau really is the best solution as the main striker up front. He is an incredible 2nd striker (remember how many goals he assisted Gomez from 07-09) but I don't know if he's suited as the lone striker up front, just not dangerous enough in front of the goal but he has gotten better there this season with Gomez departure and played well lately.

We don't really have a reliable striker at the moment.
Kießling? No. Gomez? No. Klose? No. Cacau? Not really, but at least works a lot for the team (more than Klose does nowadays btw). Müller? Not really what I would call a striker, he needs to come from behind like a "hängende Spitze" don't know how it's called in English
Podolski? Should be one but it seems like he only scores against lesser opponents.

[Sleepy]

We don't really have a reliable striker at the moment.
Kießling? No. Gomez? No. Klose? No. Cacau? Not really, but at least works a lot for the team (more than Klose does nowadays btw). Müller? Not really what I would call a striker, he needs to come from behind like a "hängende Spitze" don't know how it's called in English
Podolski? Should be one but it seems like he only scores against lesser opponents.

That's been dubbed a false-nine recently, but it's a bit different from the classical HS in German systems. A HS has a striker before him, while a false nine drops deep to put the OMs and Winger before him. See here: http://www.zonalmarking.net/2010/01/31/ ... alse-nine/
and especially here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/20 ... han-wilson

We need a player upfront that can create space for Özil/Marin/Podolski. Somebody to drop deep, draw one defender out and by that create a hole in which Khedira or Schweini can play a through ball to a cutting Podolski or Özil. What we don't need is somebody to clog the lanes and draw additional defenders in the middle. Room on the wing or around the box is pretty useless, as we haven't used any crosses or long-shots since 2008. Both Klose and Gomez need passes to be effective, that's why they don't work well in this system. Both are more players for a 4-4-2, where the strikers can create for each other (Kloses no look behind the back pass to Podolski against Sweden in 2006). Now every attack is initiated by Schweinsteiger or Khedira while the three OMs become forwards themselves. The lone striker then oftentimes need to get the out of the way when Özil and Khedira start their one-two game or Podolski starts from deep to get a through pass from Schweinsteiger.

Olic did that great in Munich with his hustle and stamina and spirit. Their offense also came mostly from the wings (Robben/Ribbery) and Olic was the perfect player for that system. Cacau did well against Bosnia, I think he'll be most likely to take that role.

Müller is, imho, the first defender of the squad. He's there to press the opposing DMs, to create some chaos in the opposing buildup. He's no real winger, nothing like Bernd Schneider, and will play more in the center while Özil moves on the right wing. The closest thing to Müller I can think of is Bernd Hobsch. Didn't have an impressive record, but was really important for those Rehagel Werder clubs. An offensive player by position, but his real task comes when the team doesn't have the ball.

[treiz]

Tough one to predict who goes through with Germany, any one of these teams could easily make it. Although I wouldn't mind Australia, after all if England comes first in the group, we get the Aussies!

[Sleepy]

How was the USA-Australia game? Some dude in another forum used the word "slapstick" to describe it, and not in a good way...

Ghana won 1:0 vs. Latvia. Isn't that impressive, either.

[TNBT]

Obviously I'll be supporting the Aussies, but I don't really care about soccer enough to learn much about the players, teams, etc. so I couldn't really say who I think WILL win.

[cgf]

I'm with Foye on the backline, there's nothing I want more than for Friedrich not to play in this tournament. I don't care if it's Boateng, my choice, or Badstuber playing with Merte just so long as it's not Friedrich. On the Left I actually don't mind Badstuber taking the spot. He's not very offensive, but that just means Lahm will have more freedom to press forward as our backline turns into a back 3 when we're in possession, if we had a more traditional holding midfielder I'd be championing Aogo for the spot, but with Khedira and Schweini both liking to charge forward I think we'll be fine with a more defensive option at the position.

As for the striker I actually think Keissling could do pretty well, opposing defenders will have to drop back just because of the cannon he has attached to his hip, plus he'll be very helpful for set pieces and corners. He's not really your traditional false nine, but I think he can manage to draw the defense out of shape and create space for Ozil, Poldi and Marin/Mueller. Plus Keissling I think has the best finishing touch on this squad, and that's been my biggest concern for our offense as we do very well creating chances, we just struggle to convert them.

[and1GS]

IMO Serbia's defense is too good to not get them out of the group stage.

[treiz]

^True, but the France team is too talented and too good to see them lose against China

[and1GS]

I really don' get France, they have an obnoxious amount of talent but they're choking like none other and looked bad in qualifying (didn't they finish behind Serbia?). They have 4 world class wing backs, a superstar, and 2 guys that were on fire after great seasons with their club teams in Malouda/Gourcuff. They might not make it past the group stage...

[treiz]

They've got all the right components to make a great team, the only problem IMO is Domenech, but at the same time he got them to the World Cup Finals last time around.

I'm hoping Laurent Blanc can do a more consistent job.

[and1GS]

Ya, they're crazy talented but I don't know how they're going to pull it all together.

[treiz]

They just need a good manager, I'm really hoping that Blanc does the job after Domenech left.

[and1GS]

Wasn't Blanc the coach after the loss to China? I don't know, I just don't see Uruguay not making it out of that group and didn't somebody say that the host country has never failed to advance out of the group stage?

[treiz]

Blanc is going to take over after the WC.

I want France to go through, but they've just been really dodgy in recent times like I said in that thread I predict Mexico and Uruguay to go through.

Yeah, the host country has always made it out of the group stages.

[cgf]

enough of this france talk in this thread. We can talk about how they're going to end up last in their group in the other thread.

[Sleepy]

I'm with Foye on the backline, there's nothing I want more than for Friedrich not to play in this tournament. I don't care if it's Boateng, my choice, or Badstuber playing with Merte just so long as it's not Friedrich. On the Left I actually don't mind Badstuber taking the spot. He's not very offensive, but that just means Lahm will have more freedom to press forward as our backline turns into a back 3 when we're in possession, if we had a more traditional holding midfielder I'd be championing Aogo for the spot, but with Khedira and Schweini both liking to charge forward I think we'll be fine with a more defensive option at the position.

I don't like Friedrich that much, either, but he was quite superb against Bosnia. Showed great tactical awareness, had good positioning and, with his experience, made better decisions than Mertesacker. Was just one game, but based on that, I'd start him in the center. He's a disaster on the wing and I'm sure Jogi did realize that too, finally, but he can be CD. Hasn't the individual class to defend world class strikers, but no German defender has that (except Lahm, and he doesn't count )

Boateng biggest weakness is his positioning in the zone. He had some bad moments against Hungary in which he let the opposing wing get behind the defense by bad positioning and gambling for interceptions. He's at his best when he can man-mark a strong opposing wing without having to worry too much about where he has to be at a certain moment. The best games of his career came against Robben and Ribery, both of whom he took out of the game in the direct matchups. So, as long we aren't facing strong wingers, we should stay with Badstuber/Aogo at LB. All three are inexperienced, but I expect less mistakes from Aogo (because of his good positioning) and Badstuber (because he stays back all the time) than Boateng. If we get far enough to encounter a really worldclass winger, Boateg can give the black Berti Vogts of 2010. Messi in the quarterfinals would be the first candidate, perhaps Rooney if Germany or England fail to finish first in their groups.

Then we'd sacrifice an OM (or perhaps even the striker if Klose hasn't found his game and nobody else stepped up) and play a 5-4-1 or 5-5-0,

------------Neuer------------
----Friedrich-Mertesacker----
Lahm-------Boateng-------Janogo
-----Schweini----Khedira-----


where Boateng would be following Messi or Rooney over the whole pitch and not be a classical 6. On defense, this becomes a normal 4-man line with Lahm, Merte, Friedich, Jansen/Aogo with Boateng roaming free to put Messi on a leash. On offense. Janaogo and Lahm go forward and leave a 3-man line behind, where Boateng secures the left side, Friedrich the right side and Mertesacker is just being Mertesacker...

That's overkill against Australia, Serbia or Ghana, but if we have to stop one of the best offensive players of the world (C.Ronaldo, Messi, Rooney, Ribery, Robben, not really sure about Spain, Italy or Brazil), Boateng becomes a key player.

As for the striker I actually think Keissling could do pretty well, opposing defenders will have to drop back just because of the cannon he has attached to his hip, plus he'll be very helpful for set pieces and corners. He's not really your traditional false nine, but I think he can manage to draw the defense out of shape and create space for Ozil, Poldi and Marin/Mueller. Plus Keissling I think has the best finishing touch on this squad, and that's been my biggest concern for our offense as we do very well creating chances, we just struggle to convert them.

Kießling is difficult to assess. He had a good year in the Bundesliga, but has never really impressed with the national squad. Just as Gomes and Klose, he works better in an two striker system than being alone upfront. He's also too limited technically to not be a liability in our quick attacking games.
There's just no ideal solution for the lone striker spot in this squad, but basing on what I've seen and read in the last weeks, I'd say that Kießling is the most unlikely candidate for the spot. Current order is imho: Klose, Cacau, Gomez, Kießling.

We could bench Müller and play a 4-4-2 with two attacking wings and deep holding player (similar to what Holland uses).

-------Schweini--Khedira-------
--Özil------------------Marin--
-------Klose-----Podolski------

That would be the best solution for our striker problem. but that's not the game Jogi Löw wants to play. It creates a pretty big hole in the center and encourages long, high balls, two things Löw hates to see. We'll be playing a quick short-passing game, and that's just not possible with two pure strikers.

[Basti]

I'm with Foye on the backline, there's nothing I want more than for Friedrich not to play in this tournament. I don't care if it's Boateng, my choice, or Badstuber playing with Merte just so long as it's not Friedrich. On the Left I actually don't mind Badstuber taking the spot. He's not very offensive, but that just means Lahm will have more freedom to press forward as our backline turns into a back 3 when we're in possession, if we had a more traditional holding midfielder I'd be championing Aogo for the spot, but with Khedira and Schweini both liking to charge forward I think we'll be fine with a more defensive option at the position.

I don't like Friedrich that much, either, but he was quite superb against Bosnia. Showed great tactical awareness, had good positioning and, with his experience, made better decisions than Mertesacker. Was just one game, but based on that, I'd start him in the center. He's a disaster on the wing and I'm sure Jogi did realize that too, finally, but he can be CD. Hasn't the individual class to defend world class strikers, but no German defender has that (except Lahm, and he doesn't count )

I read that two days ago on an info screen on the subway that Löw intends to promote Friedrich to our chief of defense. just reading that headline sent me shivers down my spine but in the article Löw is quoted saying that Friedrich has been very good during the last couple of weeks. I didn't have the opportunity to watch the last two games but I guess our defense didn't really have a lot of work to do.