OT - NCAA Conference Jumbled ****

[Kerb Hohl]

What the hell is going on? Will this amount to anything? I'm so confused I don't know what is going to happen. Looks like the Big 12 has the biggest set of worries.

I'm starting a new thread on this because it goes beyond the Big 10 expansion we discussed a few weeks ago.

[MikeIsGood]

Well yes it will amount to something - something is going to happen - there's just no way to tell what it'll be yet.

P10 is obviously shooting for the stars by (supposedly) offering the B12 schools they did, including Texas and Oklahoma, but in truth I see no reason for Texas to go to the P10. None. They're a Nationally-followed team located in the CST. Why would they want to join a conference whose primary location is the PST; a conference whose games are watched by a smaller audience than they have now in the B12, than the SEC and B10. And out on the East Coast? Forget about it. The TV markets lead to potential revenue, which is trumped probably three-fold by the potential dollars that could be offered by the B10. Texas has also said multiple times that they're concerned with the academic standing of the B12 and would like to move to a more prestigious conference in that regard. So forget the SEC, too. The B10 makes the most sense for them on that account, also.

I'm certainly not saying Texas is B10 bound, but the P10 rumors don't mean a whole lot to me other than to say that the P10 wants to expand, too, because the P10 just isn't the best option for them. Texas joining the P10 would shock me, and the SEC isn't going to happen either IMO.

Also, politicians in Texas are still pushing for Texas to be attatched, theoretically, to some combination of TTU, TAMU, and/or Baylor.

The "ultimatum" given to Nebraska and Missouri seems incredible hollow. It's not like the B12 is going to leave Nebraska out on the street if they say they're leaving but then decide they wanted back in. That would be remarkably stupid and far too prideful IMO. The B12 is just trying to speed the process along. And unless there's some contractual agreement I haven't heard about, there isn't much stopping Nebraska from saying that they're staying in the B12, but then "changing plans" at a later date.

People thought the MWC might offer Boise State, but that didn't end up happening because, I'm assuming, they're waiting to see what happens with the B12. If the B12 does indeed fall apart, the MWC is likely hoping to get in on what would be left of it.

The B10 is going to "accelerate" their process of expansion because of all of the talk of other conferences expanding.

To me, all that's really happened is the P10 has essentially said they want to expand also, the B12 has said they want to get this over with, and the B10 has said 'fine.' The names being thrown around still don't mean a whole lot to me, yet.

[MikeIsGood]

FWIW, I've heard Notre Dame is getting a bit more weary of being left out of all of the new expansion talk and is more open now to talking with Big Ten officials. As has been long speculated, if a move of ND to the B10 did finally happen, the B10 might be content to just stand pat with that and not go for 14 or 16.

But I've also heard and read (Mandel) that they haven't been pushed that far yet. So, you know...grain(s) of salt.

[Kerb Hohl]

That Mandel piece was a great article.

For those who didn't read:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/stewart_mandel/06/07/expansion-scenarios/index.html

[MadCityBucky]

My dream scenario would be Missouri, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Texas and the other two crappy Texas schools (believed you need to bring those schools otherwise no Texas).

I don't believe that the Big Ten will just stay at 12, too much money left on the table to not go to 16 teams when the Pac 10 will. Delaney has even said that their expansion will be greatly influenced by other conferences expansion plans (a.k.a Pac 10). Seems like the Pac 10 has made the first move that all depends on Texas or Missouri/Nebraska.

The biggest gripe I hear about the Big Ten for Texas is location. But the money to be made academically by joining the Big Ten is much, much, much greater than any athletic revenue. Who's going to be making this decision? It's not the athletic director, it's going to be the top heads at the university that will place more importance on academics than athletics.

This isn't just smoke and mirrors, it's real. The Pac 10 recently got a great TV contract with ESPN/ABC and want their own network, which is why they want to expand (imagine the money Texas would bring to a conference).

[ReasonablySober]

Consider this a must read. It's an amazing piece.

[Ryan5UW]

My dream scenario would be Missouri, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Texas and the other two crappy Texas schools (believed you need to bring those schools otherwise no Texas).

Your dream scenario is going to 17 teams?

Why would you want to see the conference expand to that size? I HATE the idea of these huge conferences, and think it's a terrible idea.

[chuckleslove]

Consider this a must read. It's an amazing piece.

Very nice read and interesting take on things. Really makes Delaney look very cut throat in the whole situation.

[MadCityBucky]

Sorry about that, take Missouri out.

I don't like these super power conferences either and I'd like everything to stay the way it is, except the Big Ten adds one team (ND) so we can have a conference championship. But there's a lot of money to be made from these large conferences.

[MikeIsGood]

This isn't just smoke and mirrors, it's real. The Pac 10 recently got a great TV contract with ESPN/ABC and want their own network, which is why they want to expand (imagine the money Texas would bring to a conference).

It's definitely not smoke and mirrors, as the P10 no doubt wants to expand if that's the way the B10 goes, but the P10 wanting Texas doesn't mean anything. Texas has to want to be there, too. Imagine the money Texas would bring to a conference potentially, yes. But Texas wants to know the money a conference will bring to it. The Big Ten is in a way, way better position to give them cash. And a TV contract and potentially a P10 network doesn't change the fact that it will lack East Coast appeal and viewership. The Eastern half of the US is absurdly more populated than the Western half, and the potential for TV markets and more $$$$ lies with the B10 (and other conferences too, but the B10 has a big head start), not the P10. And again, not to mention that P10 lacks the viewers of the other conferences because of when their games are played.

Texas to the P10 doesn't make much sense at all unless the B12 falls apart, they can't go to the B10 for whatever reason, and they don't have any other choice.

[Ryan5UW]

I see it much more likely that Notre Dame joins the Big 10 than Texas goes to the Pac 10.

[MikeIsGood]

FWIW, I've heard Notre Dame is getting a bit more weary of being left out of all of the new expansion talk and is more open now to talking with Big Ten officials. As has been long speculated, if a move of ND to the B10 did finally happen, the B10 might be content to just stand pat with that and not go for 14 or 16.

But I've also heard and read (Mandel) that they haven't been pushed that far yet. So, you know...grain(s) of salt.

Media outlets are reporting the B10/ND thing, now. I guess FanHouse got an article up, FWIW, citing multiple sources. Notre Dame was yet to comment to them, but I've seen reports elsewhere that they're denying the report.

[MikeIsGood]

I see it much more likely that Notre Dame joins the Big 10 than Texas goes to the Pac 10.

The only scenario I can see Texas joining the P10 is if they decide they just can't stay in the B12 anymore for whatever reason, Texas has to take their fellow state-mates, and the P10 is the only conference willing to take TAMU, TTU, and Baylor. Like a package deal in recruiting; yea, we'll take the crappier friends if it means the superstar comes with. Not that TAMU and TTU are awful, but you get the picture.

[Ryan5UW]

I would have to imagine Texas would have a HARD time selling to their fans not being in a conference with Oklahoma anymore. Plus, I agree completely with what you said up above as far as time zone, viewing population, etc. If the Big 12 gets more or less disbanded by Pac 10 and Big 10 expansion, I'd have to imagine Texas would look south and/or east for a new conference, not west.

[MikeIsGood]

Well the same report (or one of them) that says Nebraska will join the B10 on Friday also says that their leaving will result in the collapse of the B12, in which case they say the six B12 schools offered/going to be offered by the P10 are likely to join.

Who knows. I'd still be surprised because I really don't think the P10 makes any sense for Texas. I suppose maybe their hand could be forced though.

[wichmae]

Big report on ESPN right now saying UT may be leaning to joining the "Mega" conference.