Random Trade Thought - Hedo

[evildallas]

Okay this is way outside the box, so think it through before bashing:
Atlanta trades:
Marvin Williams
Mike Bibby
#24 pick

to Toronto for:
Hedo Turkoglu
Marco Bellinelli
#13 pick
*Sonny Weems if needed to make BYC work (not sure on its needed)

Caveats: It is a draft night trade depending on whether someone we like (Xavier Henry) is on the board at #13. If the target is off the board, the trade would wait until July (no BYC) and the picks would be removed in favor of a protected future 1st from Toronto. To be honest unless a much higher touted player drops or Henry is there at 13, I would just as well take my chances at 24 with a lower salary structure and wait for a future pick.

Explanation:
My thought is that the lineup works with or without resigning Joe. If we don't sign Joe, I still like the idea of going after Wesley Matthews in free agency. If we do sign Joe (this deal doesn't really change our overall cap space right now), I don't see a reason he and Hedo can't co-exist especially with Hedo's ability to create offense of the pick and roll late in games. Furthermore, if Joe resigns perhaps the MLE could go toward signing Brad Miller as a backup C to stretch the floor instead of going to a fill-in SG.

Why for Toronto: Marvin gets to go to an up tempo team that might slide him into the 4 spot allowing them to focus on getting other things in a Bosh S&T (Deng is a SF). Hedo's contract is bigger than Marvin which is why we get the pick bonus and Toronto gets a do over on his deal especially after his falling out with the fans.

Bibby is moved to make salary work and to clear PT for Teague at the point. In return, Bellinelli would improve our 2nd unit shooting (DeRozan works better in cap math, but I preferred Bellinelli's shooting).

Hedo's style of play and ballhandling vs. Marvin's is the big difference here. I know he had a down year, but he's historical a more dependable shooter from range and much better at creating offense for others (especially important if Joe leaves). Marvin would probably do better in a system with a dominant PG. My hope with the move is to improve our offensive creation abilities while dumping the rest of Bibby's deal in the process. I'm tired of those long scoreless spells that haunted us against better teams. Also, he's a experienced vet that should we resign Joe is more likely to command a more balanced offensive attack (in other words Joe should share the ball more).

If Joe resigns:
New lineup
Jeff Teague or Jamal Crawford
Joe Johnson/Marco Bellinelli/Xavier Henry or #24*
Hedo Turkoglu/Mo Evans
Josh Smith/#53 pick/A free agent rookie with some bulk
Al Horford/Brad Miller/ZaZa

If Joe doesn't resign:
Jeff Teague or Jamal Crawford
Wesley Matthews/Marco Bellinelli/Xavier Henry or #24*
Hedo Turkoglu/Mo Evans
Josh Smith/#53 pick/A free agent rookie with some bulk
Al Horford/Zaza/A free agent rookie with some bulk

I put an or on the PG situation because I don't know if Teague will be ready to step up and handle the job. The job might be Crawford's for a year. In the scenario where Joe walks we probably spend a little of the MLE on a vet PG as insurance. The other lineup doesn't really require that because we'd have a vet lineup around Teague any way with several ball handlers. If Henry is the draft pick it is possible that we'd pass on making a run at Matthews and still go for a backup big like Brad Miller figuring that Henry would get the start sooner or later and we could always go with Evans or Bellinelli in the short term. If we land Henry I'd feel much better about Joe walking.

The bulk comments are because I'm still dedicated to the concept of finding and training some bigs to compete with Dwight Howard. I just know it will take time and commitment to that course to succeed.

Final note on Turkoglu's contract, it is the same length as Marvin's but admittedly much pricier (3-4.5M per year). I'm less worried about drop off from him than a similar aged SG like Joe because his advantages are from his length, vision, passing, and ballhandling. He doesn't derive an advantage from speed or jumping ability that are likely to drop off suddenly. I don't see his higher salary as having a major difference on our ability to retain key personnel. I do acknowledge that it may force the team in going cheap on the bench down the road if the move turns out to be a flop. This doesn't scare me as I've seen that lack of spending for years.

Okay it's time for you to tell me I'm crazy for even considering this.

[TheChaser]

That's honestly not bad...

[azuresou1]

You're crazy.

Hedo is significantly older, paid more, considerably less athletic, cares even less than Marvin, is a non-existent defender, gave up on his team in Toronto, and didn't even outperform Marvin this past year. He plays very similar to iso-Joe, and we are a team that is significantly more athletic than the typical NBA team. Orlando replaced his spot in the roster with Pietrus and Barnes, who were not only cheaper, but played arguably better.

Hedo has one of the worst contracts in the league - he's making about $10m a year for the next 4 years, when he probably warrants $6m a year at best, and I'd give him no more than $4m. I mean, if you want to make a move for the sake of making a move, at least trade Marvin for Arenas.

[HoopsGuru25]

I don't think it's a crazy idea if the Hawks keep Joe(that's a big if). Marvin on the Hawks as currently constructed(10/5/1 w/o the ability to stretch the defense) is not a good contract. I would rather have Hedo and the 13th pick than Marvin,Bibby,and the 24th pick if we committed to bringing back Joe. Keeping Joe means that the Hawks won't even have the option of rebuilding or getting under the cap for atleast another 3 years so the 2-3 million dollar difference in what they make per year doesn't really mean much.

The problem is that I have no interest in bringing Joe back if he's going to be the 1st option but this is a less painful scenario.

[evildallas]

You're crazy.

Hedo is significantly older, paid more, considerably less athletic, cares even less than Marvin, is a non-existent defender, gave up on his team in Toronto, and didn't even outperform Marvin this past year. He plays very similar to iso-Joe, and we are a team that is significantly more athletic than the typical NBA team. Orlando replaced his spot in the roster with Pietrus and Barnes, who were not only cheaper, but played arguably better.

Hedo has one of the worst contracts in the league - he's making about $10m a year for the next 4 years, when he probably warrants $6m a year at best, and I'd give him no more than $4m. I mean, if you want to make a move for the sake of making a move, at least trade Marvin for Arenas.

I accept all that criticism until you suggest Arenas. Then you invalidated yourself. Arenas who has shown very poor judgment off the court and has lost the athleticism on the court needed to succeed at his size since his repeated injuries has as long a contract and makes twice as much as Hedo over that time. That's the worst contract in basketball. Also they realistically replaced Hedo with Carter. Pietrus and Barnes filled the role that was held by Courtney Lee. They shifted the greater ball handling role from SF to SG and the defense first, spot up for 3s only from SG to SF when they made the personnel change. Also the difference between Hedo as primary ball handler in the 4th and iso-Joe is that Hedo would actually create open shots for his teammates (I'm talking Orlando days as I didn't watch much of Toronto last year) were Joe is more likely to spend 18 seconds without gaining an advantage or making a decision.

[evildallas]

I don't think it's a crazy idea if the Hawks keep Joe(that's a big if). Marvin on the Hawks as currently constructed(10/5/1 w/o the ability to stretch the defense) is not a good contract. I would rather have Hedo and the 13th pick than Marvin,Bibby,and the 24th pick if we committed to bringing back Joe. Keeping Joe means that the Hawks won't even have the option of rebuilding or getting under the cap for atleast another 3 years so the 2-3 million dollar difference in what they make per year doesn't really mean much.

The problem is that I have no interest in bringing Joe back if he's going to be the 1st option but this is a less painful scenario.

I see your point. With Joe we are committed to a path and without changing Marvin and Bibby it is unlikely that it leads anywhere. Without Joe, we are probably better off seeing if Marvin can step up and if not just trying to deal him later with the realization that we might have to take a step back before we can land someone who can get us to the next level. I just can't shake how little drive Marvin seemed to have in that summer plans interview.

[azuresou1]

Arenas even last year after his injuries played significantly better than Turkodu. Every attribute you listed - shooting, handling, creating, etc. - Arenas not only does that better than Hedo, but better than anyone on our team.

Hedo could 'create' shots in Orlando because everyone there other than Dwight could shoot, and with Dwight in the middle teams had the conundrum of who to guard. Turkoglu might actually be the second worst contract in the league after Elton Brand. You want to talk about Marvin having little drive? Hedo called in sick for a game, and was spotted later that night at a club.

Heck, if anything Arenas is going to be extra driven this year - everyone expects him to fail, and he's the kind of person who thrives off outside negative reinforcement.

[Jamaaliver]

I like the trade....alot. I think Hedo has proven what he can do as the primary scorer in the postseason. He was a big part of that Magic team's success last year that rode all the way to the Finals. We saw how they fell apart with V Carter in that same role this year. Hedo provides size, shooting ability and experience.

I take it back....I LOVE the trade.

[azuresou1]

Am I the only one who watched Toronto this year other than when they played us?

[evildallas]

Arenas is the worst contract in the league, bar none. Brand is 2nd worst because he didn't recover from injury leaving him as a shell of his former self. Baron Davis is up there too because his effort is so suspect.

Hedo is overpaid, I admit that. I agree that it is a bad contract and that is why this thought will probably never get considered by the ASG. I think you are basing too much on his year in Toronto in which he never really fit in or hit his stride. Hedo still has a chance to earn his deal although alienating the Toronto fans was a bad move. BTW, if you look at the RealGM Player Rankings for last season his RV was only -28. (RV: The difference between a player's deserved salary based off the Floor Impact Counter (FIC) and actual salary.) There are a lot of players way lower than that.

I'd also like to point out that unless Marvin's situation changes his contract is bad and unless Mike Bibby experiences a rebirth of sorts his contract isn't a good one either. For Marvin's contract to be not be considered bad we need to let Joe walk, move from an iso offense to something centered on a creating PG, give Marvin more offense responsibilities, and hope that he shows some drive and aggressiveness as a result. If he stays the 5th option on offense he'll be worth the league minimum. BTW, Marvin's RV was -18 and Bibby was -15.

[azuresou1]

You'll notice that almost everyone who has a worse RV is either a former superstar near the end of their contract e.g. Kobe (-34), KG (-34), Paul Pierce (-52), Ray Allen (-52), VC (-56), Shaq (-81), or a laughably overpaid role player who everyone knew was overpaid as soon as they signed their contract e.g. Erick Dampier (-69), Nocioni (-69), Jared Jeffries (-60). Arenas had a terrible RV because he got suspended 32 games into the season - his FIC40 is 13.8, which is nearly identical to Joe.

Hedo is a laughably overpaid role player who just finished the FIRST year of his contract - as he gets paid more and gets worse, his contract just gets worse and worse. And if you want to bring up FIC, we hold on to Marvin, whose RV was -18, better than Hedo's. And it's not like Hedo just didn't click in Toronto - his PER was not significantly lower than his career PER or the previous year's PER.

Also, you bring up that for Marvin to not be a bad contract, we need to let Joe walk - shouldn't we be letting him walk anyways, when he was such a huge supporter of Woody's slow iso offense? We clearly aren't going anywhere with this current nucleus (much less replacing Marvin with Hedo) short of LeBron signing with the Clippers and Dwight dying in a car accident.

[HMFFL]

Arenas is the worst contract in the league, bar none. Brand is 2nd worst because he didn't recover from injury leaving him as a shell of his former self. Baron Davis is up there too because his effort is so suspect.

If Arenas, Brand, and Baron among your top 3, how do you rank Rashard Lewis? I bring this up because he makes the most money, has three years left like Elton Brand & Baron Davis, and he's never going to live up to his salary.

Elton Brand depending on what else Philly gives up can be moved and Baron Davis can be moved, but Orlando is stuck with Rashard.

[evildallas]

Forgot about that Rashard Lewis deal. Yes, that one sucks worse than Baron Davis because it escalates. There are other bad deals out there, but I didn't check each team. I overlooked Lewis and I should of had him near the top of the list.

And azuresou1, I agree that we should let Joe, but I say that just as a business decision. I can't get behind a max contract for someone who doesn't sell tickets and Joe Johnson just isn't that marketable. I acknowledge that in doing so we will take a step back overall in team performance because the other pieces aren't likely ready to step up to bigger roles yet. Also, it was more than just let Joe walk in order for Marvin to earn his contract (it took multiple things to work out).

I'll be honest that I'm not wildly confident about a trade for Hedo because it does have a risk that he won't fit here either. I came up with the idea when I was trying to figure out what the potential market for Marvin Williams is (that video really pushed me over the edge) and where he could be traded draft night with his BYC issues. I came up with Hedo, a player who is undoubtedly available for trade and because of his contract and PR issues might net us an extra prize for taking him on. If he regained the form he showed in Orlando it would be a great move. If he played like he did in a down year in Toronto he'd still provide about the same amount of points and rebounds as Marvin and likely generate 3-4 times as many assists. We'd dump Bibby's last 2 years of contract and still get back some shooting for our bench still at rookie deal prices. If Henry's there at 13 I feel strongly enough about his potential to make such a trade because the overall upside is worth the risk on Hedo.

Marvin could still break out in the right situation, but I'm becoming more and more sure that it isn't going to happen here. Marvin just seems happy right were he is as a player and that sickens me (I hope I am misreading the situation). I'm so down on Marvin's drive to be an impact player here that I'd deal him to Minnesota or Memphis is if I thought I could get a middle 1st and a late 1st out of him in this draft. Or a mid-round pick and a rotation player like Sessions. I just think I could replace his current production with a rookie like Quincy Pondexter and out of 3 shots in this draft 1 of them would probably outperform him in the long run.

[Harry10]

Hedo can do well in the right system. he was fine in Orlando because Dwight was able to back him up on defense. Al and Josh will be able to give the same support to Hedo and make up for any defensive mistakes he will make.

but it is a dumb trade because Al/Josh/Hedo/Joe/Bibby and the #12 pick is not going to get you pass the Magic, Celtics, Heat, or any Lebron/Bosh combo.

i don't think the trade would add or take away any wins for the Hawks. so it is really pointless, it is basically a trade for the sake of making a trade.

adding Arenas could defiantly give the Hawks a better change at getting pass the 2nd round.

[azuresou1]

If we're so intent on trading Marvin, I'd think we could ship out Marvin/Bibby/Zaza for Arenas/McGee and some future picks.

[evildallas]

I don't think we'll ever see eye to eye on Gilbert Arenas and his 80M salary. I want no part of him. Reminds me of people pushing to sign Iverson last summer.

[azuresou1]

That's different - Iverson sucked in Detroit, Arenas was decent in the 32 games he played.

[MaceCase]

The deal is terrible if not for the lottery pick and I just don't think that that pick is high enough to take on that contract. Yea I get it, Marvin was terrible last season but then so was Hedo and to me I feel I can say that Marvin's year is an anomaly whereas given Hedo's age (31) you can continue to see a regression in his effectiveness. I just noticed Bibby is in the deal too, I'm not sure how Toronto fans would feel having both Calderon and Bibby manning the point lol. Beyond that I just don't think of both Marv's and Bibbs contracts to be terrible enough to take on an even worse contract, I say no to Hedo.

[evildallas]

That's different - Iverson sucked in Detroit, Arenas was decent in the 32 games he played.

Iverson was also only at the MLE or less, not 20M a year. Also Arenas played only 15 games the 2 previous seasons due to injury before missing most only last season due to stupidity. The thing they have in common is that neither one is a good idea.

[Harry10]

^ if not for events, Arenas was a legit NBA all star, and the best PG in the east, over Rondo and Rose last year.