Does anyone see the belt tightening on salaries?

[td00]

I think we all know how the summer is going to go now that the ASG has decided to bail as soon as they can find a buyer.

- I don't expect JJ to return. We will be lucky to get 2 contributors for him.
- I don't see Chills returning. A revamped plan to move his rights are probably in order.
- Will we just throw this draft away now? Will we take chances on international players who won't be coming over this year?
- Would anyone be surprised to see the Marvin contract or the Smoove contract get moved this summer?

LD and Sund have their work cut out for them trying to retain the current issue.

It won't be business as usual going forward. The ASG is going to want to limit their debts as much as they can so they can find a buyer asap.

Is anyone else feeling relief today?

[evildallas]

This summer is awkward for the Hawks and I still expect a bitter, long lockout the next year to rewrite the rules of how the NBA is run (and I expect the league to ultimately get their way). I think one of the questions affecting this summer will be what Hawks ownership expect to happen with the CBA. If they aren't thinking that far ahead now then I lose what remaining respect I have for the ownership group. Of course, we can't get info on this. They can't speak on the CBA and if they did they would be heavily fined.

Here's the stuff I would be trying to figure out. If the league goes to a hard cap, what will be the transition period to said cap level? It can't be instantly because some teams are over the cap now with guaranteed salaries. What will be the rules during transition to get teams in line with the contract level? Will there be any grandfather exceptions for elite players? Will there be another Allen Houston rule to facilitate the transition (you may buy X players out to get under the cap and they will get their guaranteed money without it continuing to fill up your cap)? What will be the new maximums for length of a deal and length of a rookie deal? If they don't get a true hard cap, what modifications are likely to the current cap (just in case)?

Now given the best information we have on these items, are we better off with Joe under contract for 5 years or by maintaining cap space. If there is a drawn out transition then the answer is probably yes sign him. If the Allen Houston-type rule is brought in again to make more sudden adherence to the new system then we are probably better off with some cap space to take advantage of a group of workers who could choose where to go for low dollars considering they already got paid.

That's my philosophical rant. Here's my what I expect to happen rant.
I expect JJ to walk for nothing, not even a sign and trade (the team that offers him most money won't have anything worthwhile to trade back). Or if it is a sign and trade it is primarily just for the exception.
I expect Childress to return to the NBA and be signed and traded to another team.
I expect us to make the draft pick, but not to be overly excited by the result.
I don't expect Marvin or Josh to get traded this summer. I don't rule out a trade deadline deal or next summer, but I think they get a look under a different leader before such a decision is made.
I expect a run at an inexpensive SG in free agency.
I expect the team to drop off some in record, but still be a playoff team as we transition to a different focal point. It might be better to drop off further and get a better pick for the long run, but I don't expect it to happen that way.

That's all I got. It'll be different, but I'm hoping it will be entertaining.

[azuresou1]

I'm expecting guaranteed rookie deals and semi-guaranteed contracts for all other players for less money, about 60-70% of current salaries.

[D21]

Why a player should earn 15M or more when his team is loosing games and money ?
Just use at least 50% of the salary based on team performace.

NBA champion gives you 100% of the salary
NBA Finals 95%
Conference Finals 90%
2nd round 85%
1st round 80%
17th record (no playoffs) 67%
18th 66%
19th 65%
...
28th 56%
29th 55%
30th 50%

And it would avoid tanking too much

[azuresou1]

That system just punishes bad teams. Players will demand significantly more to play for the bad teams since half their salary might not get paid, and then if by some miracle that team DOES make playoffs, then suddenly the team is on the hook for all this extra salary.

[theatlfan]

The ownership posturing for the CBA is about cutting down the length and, to a lesser degree, $$ for all deals. The push for a hard cap has more to do with a bargaining chip on the Player's Union than the owners thinking it'd actually be a reality. The Bird Rule was brought up by the owners (so the Celtics could retain an icon player), not the players (Bird didn't really seem to care if he was going to leave BOS). For this CBA negotiation, I think the league will focus on the problems with PHI and NYK - 2 top 5 markets that have seldom made the playoffs in the last few years. We've seen max contracts (Brand's in PHI) and MLE contracts (NYK) severely hamstring the FO's ability to readjust their rosters to the point where we're either seen and heard rumors of trading away lottery picks to rid themselves of these contracts. I think ownerships #1 priority is to cut the length of contracts. This will give teams the ability to adjust their roster relatively quickly after a distratous GM, ala NYK and Isaiah, or FA signing, ala Brand. The carrot that ownership is willing to give will be that the actual $$ won't change too much although any adjustments would be in the owners favor. (Personally, I'm going with 3 years for a player switching teams; 4 for players staying. Adjustments in $$ will be more along the lines of obscure than anything concrete - i.e., an adjustment in what % determines a max contract or MLE per years of experience so that players wouldn't lose too much $$ since they'd now have to sign 2 contracts of these contracts in succession as opposed to 1 for the entire time.)

As far as we go, I do think that ASG wants to put a competitive product on the court. They're wary of the new CBA and any labor stoppages, but not so much as to stop them from retaining JJ or upgrading the roster. My expectations are that JJ will be back (LD's hire was a move to retain JJ as will any roster moves we see before we know he's gone), Chills will remain in Greece, and we'll make a "safe" pick with our 1st rounder (Pondexter?). The 2nd rounder will still be a Euro-Stash since that seems to be Sund's MO for our team (... and for the position we're in, that's not a horrible idea). We will shop our tradeable assets (specifically Crawford), but more than likely, there won't large scale changes to the roster. Well, unless JJ does leave...

[evildallas]

I think the hard cap is more than just posturing, but I could be wrong. I believe the owners are trying to come up with a system that protects them from themselves. The current system with all its exceptions allows owners to game the system and overspend the cap by outrageous levels by using contract length to negate the cap (trade expiring for long term). The solution may not be a hard cap, but a different accounting system for cap math that utilizes average salary over term of contract as the basis. Regardless of what wins out I'm expecting a big change in the way the NBA operates. Whether the Hawks are well positioned for this is unsure.

P.S. - I really want them to stop drafting Euro-stash players until they bring at least one guy over here. Until I see one guy play for the Hawks it feels like throwing picks away. Perhaps Sergey Gladyr can bring the string. He was one of the top scorers for his team in the Spanish ACB league this year. He's a long range bomber as well.

http://www.eurobasket.com/player.asp?Cntry=ukr&PlayerID=69279

[theatlfan]

P.S. - I really want them to stop drafting Euro-stash players until they bring at least one guy over here. Until I see one guy play for the Hawks it feels like throwing picks away. Perhaps Sergey Gladyr can bring the string. He was one of the top scorers for his team in the Spanish ACB league this year. He's a long range bomber as well.

http://www.eurobasket.com/player.asp?Cntry=ukr&PlayerID=69279

Honestly, I don't have any problem with getting a Euro-stash for late 2nd. Most of players taken in the area are 12th man/NBDL players anyway. As long as your going to have to develop a player, why not get a Euro-stash guy? Sure, you have to deal with the fact that they aren't in the US so you can't control his development and have to deal with any transition issues when the player does come over, but those are minimal concerns considering that A) you don't have to pay them and B) they'll play against better competition than the NBDL - and maybe even play for a National Team which would help even further with the competition issue. Obviously, if there's a steal sitting there, then I'd prefer to take him over some Euro-Stash. But if it's just another guy who'll compete with Mario West for a spot on the roster, then yeah, I'd prefer a Euro-Stash.

BTW, Gladyr ain't coming over this year. He actually regressed some last year with a substanial decrease in his 3 PT shooting % which was supposed to be his forte.

[evildallas]

P.S. - I really want them to stop drafting Euro-stash players until they bring at least one guy over here. Until I see one guy play for the Hawks it feels like throwing picks away. Perhaps Sergey Gladyr can bring the string. He was one of the top scorers for his team in the Spanish ACB league this year. He's a long range bomber as well.

http://www.eurobasket.com/player.asp?Cntry=ukr&PlayerID=69279

Honestly, I don't have any problem with getting a Euro-stash for late 2nd. Most of players taken in the area are 12th man/NBDL players anyway. As long as your going to have to develop a player, why not get a Euro-stash guy? Sure, you have to deal with the fact that they aren't in the US so you can't control his development and have to deal with any transition issues when the player does come over, but those are minimal concerns considering that A) you don't have to pay them and B) they'll play against better competition than the NBDL - and maybe even play for a National Team which would help even further with the competition issue. Obviously, if there's a steal sitting there, then I'd prefer to take him over some Euro-Stash. But if it's just another guy who'll compete with Mario West for a spot on the roster, then yeah, I'd prefer a Euro-Stash.

BTW, Gladyr ain't coming over this year. He actually regressed some last year with a substanial decrease in his 3 PT shooting % which was supposed to be his forte.

Sure they're cheaper, but they never make it to the league so I don't see a benefit. And as much as I love Mario's energy there are guys drafted in the 2nd round (or undrafted) who actually have the skills to help the team. We ignore them because they aren't perfect prospects or throw away a pick on an Euro lottery ticket that we never even scratch off. It's probably unfair that I am railing against Euros when the real problem is our scouting and decision making. We've chosen poorly on Americans in the 2nd round or given away 2nd round picks like they were worthless. Trading a pick to Dallas for Anthony Johnson when Dallas was trading Johnson to reduce luxury tax implications was a prime example. We should have either gotten a pick for saving them money or the pick had been so conditional that it would have likely expired without transfer, but our GM and ownership failed to value the 2nd round. BTW, the pick that was given away was used on Nick Fazekas by Dallas (34), but had we had the pick it could have gone for Glen Davis (35) or Marc Gasol (48) (a Euro Stash) or Ramon Sessions (56). Any of those guys would have looked pretty good in Hawks uniform.

[td00]

Heading into the draft and FA, there are glowing needs on this team. Like many say, there are few big men that will contribute from the 24th slot in the draft. On the FA side, there are few who are going to want to come here because an offer from the Hawks won't blow any other offer out the door. Sund doesnt' work that way, and I don't see him as the agressor in any transaction.

JJ will get offers elsewhere, and I do not expect him to be back. I don't think he has the backbone to come back here to Atlanta fans and face them for another 4-5 years. I think he looks for a new start, since it will probably be his last big payday, and we have to try to garnish something for his talents.

That alone will set us back some, but with Crawford in place, it doesn't hurt us as much as it could have a year ago.
I take my chances and try to get reinforcements in the post with JJ's contract. Hopefully, he will take interest in being in the West as there is more of an opportunity to get talent in return.

I know it sounds crazy, but we need to fill 2-3 holes in our starting lineup. Whether that is Teague maturing, and Marvin playing like he did in Year 4 (IMO his only productive year) and getting some interior defensive help. Those 3 things will determine if we can make another run at this, with or without JJ.

[theatlfan]

Sure they're cheaper, but they never make it to the league so I don't see a benefit. And as much as I love Mario's energy there are guys drafted in the 2nd round (or undrafted) who actually have the skills to help the team. We ignore them because they aren't perfect prospects or throw away a pick on an Euro lottery ticket that we never even scratch off. It's probably unfair that I am railing against Euros when the real problem is our scouting and decision making. We've chosen poorly on Americans in the 2nd round or given away 2nd round picks like they were worthless. Trading a pick to Dallas for Anthony Johnson when Dallas was trading Johnson to reduce luxury tax implications was a prime example. We should have either gotten a pick for saving them money or the pick had been so conditional that it would have likely expired without transfer, but our GM and ownership failed to value the 2nd round. BTW, the pick that was given away was used on Nick Fazekas by Dallas (34), but had we had the pick it could have gone for Glen Davis (35) or Marc Gasol (48) (a Euro Stash) or Ramon Sessions (56). Any of those guys would have looked pretty good in Hawks uniform.

100% agree with the nonchalant attitude that BK had with 2nd round picks. The same can be said of LAC, I don't think they have their 2nd for the rest of the decade... or so it seems. Ugh, I'm sure we could go on and on about the hatred of BK and how he drove us into league obscurity, but honestly, I prefer to stick my head in the sand and pretend those years didn't happen. We suffered so much at that time that I think I'm just blocking it out.

I don't see how this affects the Euro-stash though. Sure, I'd rather have a 2nd round pick (especially a high one) than a mediocre veteran PG, but if I'm picking between JR Pinnock and Damir Markota (2 of the last 3 picks in 2006) then give me the Euro-stash. I just see too many advantages to the Euro-stash over the American (more years of control, better competition than NBDL) that would make me believe that the Euro has a better chance to actually contribute to the team eventually than the American immediately. Obviously, if you see a Will Blalock (last pick that same year) then my attitude would change... as it would if Da'Shean Butler is on the board @ 53 this year.

I take my chances and try to get reinforcements in the post with JJ's contract. Hopefully, he will take interest in being in the West as there is more of an opportunity to get talent in return.

I know it sounds crazy, but we need to fill 2-3 holes in our starting lineup. Whether that is Teague maturing, and Marvin playing like he did in Year 4 (IMO his only productive year) and getting some interior defensive help. Those 3 things will determine if we can make another run at this, with or without JJ.

While I like the optimism, there's no way we'll compete for anything more than a playoff spot and 1st round exit without JJ. Basically, we'd have to depend on Marvin to become a 20+ ppg scorer while getting more than incremental advances from some of our younger guys AND Jamal Crawford being last year's version and the previous 10 years of his career to be anything more... all are doubtful at best. Personally, if we lose JJ, I prefer to pack it up, decide who'll we'll rebuild around (Smith? Horford? Teague? Som combo thereof?), and get a bunch of picks/prospects to see who fits around them.