I was certainly impressed by the Evan Turner narrative over the course of the college basketball season: outstanding production across the board, speedy return from a scary broken back injury, miraculous buzzer-beater in the Big Ten tournament, National Player of the Year.
Turner is widely expected to go to the Sixers at pick no. 2, or to the Nets at no. 3 at the worst, in Thursday's NBA Draft. As such, expectations are high. Nets personnel director Gregg Polinsky called Turner "a guy who can put a team on his back," and my sense is that Turner is generally expected to be an All-Star-caliber player in the league.
After watching several of Turner's games, and also digging further into the details, I am skeptical that he will become an NBA All-Star. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Turner will be a scrub or a bust on the Kwame-Darko-Morrison level. I do think he will be a good player and I wouldn't take him below no. 4, as I think the drop-off in talent after the Big 4 in this draft is pretty steep. I just don't see a lot of evidence of an All-Star.
Cons:
1) lack of legitimate NBA prospects in Big Ten:
Turner essentially matched up against zero bonafide NBA players in the last two seasons in the Big Ten. None.
2) opposing players usually were way smaller than him:
Turner is going to struggle to be nearly as productive a scorer when matched up against players at least as big and athletic as him, often more so.
3) inflated rebounding #s:
rebounding numbers for college swingmen are artificially high because of a lack of size in the modern NCAA game
http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2010 ... liber.html
