Kevin O'Connor's trends in the draft

[babyjax13]

Since the drafting of Gordon Hayward a lot of people are questioning Kevin O’Connor as GM. A lot of it has to do with the fact that since reaching the conference finals in 2007 they are yet to win a championship – or even to get as far in the playoffs.

O’Connor and the Draft

Kevin O’Connor has four kinds of players that he often seems to target in the draft. First is small forwards and shooting guards that can handle the ball – second is players that have a “nose for the ball”, next is players that spread the floor (especially centers in recent years after the success of Okur), and lastly is point guards (he really doesn’t seem to target just one type of point guard).

Ball Handlers

Quincy Lewis (1999), Andrei Kirilenko (1999), DeShawn Stevenson (2000), Mo Williams (2003), CJ Miles (2005), Gordon Hayward (2010).

This is one of the areas that Kevin is very good at evaluating. Usually he picks up guys that are talented and multi-dimensional. So far the only “bust” he has drafted is Quincy Lewis (17th). Some people would argue that Stevenson was also a bust, but for a late first round pick (23) he has stuck in the NBA for a long time.

Kirilenko is obviously more of a defensive player, but when he was drafted I think that O’Connor was more excited about the dimension that he could add for the Jazz on offense as a second ball handler. In 2003-04 AK had an amazing season and almost brought the Jazz into the playoffs. Without all of the injuries that slowed his career he would have been one of the better players in the NBA. AK will always be an icon and a fan-favorite in Utah.

Miles and Stevenson were both upside picks that were intended to be groomed over the long-term. Both turned into solid players, and Miles is going to become a guy that can give you 15 points night in and night out. I used to be very critical of his game but last year in the playoffs I think he finally figured out his role.

Of all these players the only ones selected in the top 20 are Gordan Hayward and Quincy Lewis. Lewis never made it in the NBA, but I think that Hayward will.

Tough Guys

Curtis Bortchard (2002), Kris Humphries (2004), Kirk Snyder (2004), Robert Whaley (2005), Paul Millsap (2006), Ronnie Brewer (2006), Kyrylo Fesenko (2007), Wesley Mathews (2009).

Prior to 2006 O’Connor didn’t have much success drafting the bruising type of players that Jerry Sloan loves, but as soon as he drafted Paul Millsap his track record has been flawless when drafting (or in the case of Mathews, signing) these types of players. O’Connor’s draft record suggests that when drafting this type of player there is a 50/50 chance that they will become consistent role players for the Jazz.

Shooters

Eddie Lucas (1999), Scott Padgett (1999), Jarron Collins (2001), Sasha Pavlovic (2003), Morris Almond (2007), Tadija Dragicevic (2008), Ante Tomic (2008), Kosta Koufos (2008), Goran Suton (2009).

This is where most of O’Connor’s draft “duds” come from – he just isn’t good at picking guys that can become solid role players when their main asset is shooting. Right now the jury is still out on Dragicevic, Koufos, Suton and Tomic. Out of those four I think that there are only two with the chance to become good role players for the Jazz and those are Koufos and Tomic. Koufos was very good in his rookie year, but last year he was terrible – hopefully it was just a case of the “sophomore slump” – but to me it looked like he was going through puberty again and hit the stage where you loose your coordination. Tomic has been fantastic in the Euroleague and would be a borderline starter in the NBA (much like Nenad Krstic) but if he bulks up he could be a 15 and 8 type of guy…but he has to be willing to take a pay cut to play in a more competitive league.

Pavlovic is what I would call border line bust material. He wasn’t a bad player, but he only lasted 5 seasons as a contributing player. After his contract expires he will struggle to get another one in the NBA.

Point Guards

Raul Lopez (2001), Mo Williams (2003), Deron Williams (2005), Dee Brown (2006), Eric Maynor (2009).

O’Connor has a decent track record of selecting point guards in the draft. Williams has obviously been fantastic, and Mo Williams has turned into an all-star, sadly it was with another team. Maynor also has proven to at the very minimum be a capable backup and will likely become a capable starter as well. Lopez has often been considered the worst pick that O’Connor has ever made, but he was a very productive player before he got injured and ultimately may have been the reason that the Jazz opted for Deron Williams over Chris Paul in the 2005 draft (because of the difference in size between the two players).

[superd]

Nice historical review. One very noticeable thing to me is only one high draft pick out of the whole bunch, and that was a good one selecting Deron Williams. Considering all the mid-level picks that don't contribute to their teams the Jazz did ok.

Too bad O'Connor fares poorly selecting the bigs. Borchardt, Padget, Humphreys, etc.

[Paper Face]

I thought AK was a Layden pick?

[babyjax13]

O'Connor took over in the off-season between 1999 and 2000 so that one is sort of debatable....He would have done a lot of the scouting at the very least so I am counting it.

[jazzfan1971]

I think a lot of his errors have been on the mental side.

Snyder
Stevenson
Humphries

These are guys that just didn't have the mental makeup to make it on the Jazz. Or in the NBA in some cases. Might be why guys like Hayward who are 'coaches dreams' get some extra love from him now as he realizes how important the space between the ears is for our team.

[Neon Black]

Great write up, but all I'm getting from it is that O'connor targets various player dynamics in almost every position. He's had just as many busts as any other team, in addition to the aggressive pursuit of Deron, the patient acquisition of AK, Millsap and Miles, a reasonable pick in Brewer, and some risks in Fesenko and Koufos that you really can't blame him for taking. It's not his fault Fes is a party-first alcoholic who doesn't realize the position he is in.

He also did well to trade for Boozer and Okur...rebuilding a team that was projected to win 9 wins into a regular playoff contender in 3 seasons. All this in arguably the weakest free-agent market in the NBA.

I've disagreed with some of his decisions, but for the most part I can't complain. Jazz would be much worse under several other GM's...anyone giving up on this team is essentially a huge joke.

[Fido]

The list of shooters feels more like the catch-all for players that didn't go somewhere else. I mean Jarron Collins, the shooter?

[gojazzgo]

Why is mo williams in two different sections and KOC getting credit in both? Also, not paying him the meager amount of money he wanted at the time was a dumb move. Instead we had guys like milt and mcleod.

Also, I think it's important to look at some of the guys we were considering when we made some extremely stupid picks. I know it's easier to look at in hindsight, but we brought Boozer in for not one, but two workouts before drafting borchardt. A lot of other teams may have passed him over as well, but he was 100% on our radar and our front office thought Borchardt was the better player? It's not just me saying it now either, as I hated that pick then and thought Boozer should have been chosen with our pick that year.

[babyjax13]

The list of shooters feels more like the catch-all for players that didn't go somewhere else. I mean Jarron Collins, the shooter?

Well, it was more for guys who spread the floor, and that was Collins only role on offense. A center that hits a mid-range jump shot (consistently) is in my mind a "shooter"even if they aren't exactly the next Memo or Dirk.

[countrybama24]

1st round --- skilled players who don't play defense (hence their skill despite being picked late)

2nd round --- pure awesomeness.