Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

[Hoopalotta]

iIt's a business. Leonsis may very well have been sincere when he said GA will play for the Zards next season. But you can't hold it against him if a trade comes along that's too good to refuse and GA is dealt. Ted has to do what's best for the team/franchise at that time, and not sweat what he may have said 2-3 months ago.

Yeah. The thing for Ted is that he would have destroyed his leverage if he looked desperate to move Gil so it would have likely cost him and his partners many millions of dollars.

[nate33]

No way. Why trade him when his value likely at his lowest? As long as Gil doesn't get injured or do anything boneheaded his value will only go up. If we are gonna trade him I'd rather trade him during the season where we don't have trade to a division rival and we don't need to receive Vince Carter

I don't think it's quite so simple.

Right now, there is a frenzy in the free agent market. Teams like Miami and Chicago are pulling out all the stops for the right to pay Lebron, Wade and Bosh a max contract. NY and NJ have big money and nothing to spend it on so second tier players like Johnson, Amare, Boozer and Gay are getting swept up in the frenzy. It looks like they'll get big paydays too. Other teams like Dallas, Portland and Orlando see their opponents getting stronger and feel like they have to take steps to counter.

It's the perfect storm for dumping Arenas' contract. It may well turn out that we never have an opportunity like this again.

Nobody can predict the future. I can certainly envision a scenario where Arenas stays in Washington, plays extremely well and is someday worth expiring contracts plus a pick/prospect. I can also envision a scenario where the new CBA reduces teams' ability to ink large contracts, making Arenas' contract seem even bigger and more difficult to move. And there's also the worst-case scenario in which Arenas gets hurt again and becomes completely untradeable.

All things considered, I think Teddy has to seriously consider unloading Arenas if he can do it without sacrificing any assets. I'd really like for him to wait and see if we can dump Arenas to NY for Curry before we send him to Orlando. It would work better capwise, and it at least sends Arenas out of our division so we won't see him 4 times a year.

[The Magic Man]

Magic fan here,wanted to ask you guys if a VC for Arenas trade was to happen,do you think a Arenas/Dwight duo would work,considering Arenas has never played with a dominate big?

[Rafael122]

With their current half court scheme? It's a terrible match. They will need to go more up tempo. Their defense will be atrocious as well, with Rashard and Arenas in the starting 5, as well as the undersized Nelson.

[Dat2U]

According to some, Wall needs to improve his ball-handling and can turnover the ball. Turnovers can be expected but need to be improved. There have been spurts where Gil has turned the ball over but he is a superior ball-handler. My point is this, I think Gil can help make the game easier for Wall and Wall can help make the game easier than Gil. In my opinion, they can share the ball-handling, not 50/50 when they are on the court together, but 40/60 Gil/Wall.

Who do you leave open? When the backcourt was Gil and DeShawn, you left open DeShawn and at one point, DeShawn was I can't feel my face 50/50 on 3's. Take Gil away and DeShawn turned into DeBrick 20/80. What will Wall look like playing next to Gil and what will Gil look like not playing next to DeShawn, but Wall? Could be a win/win situation for both. Could be.

Wall definitely can stand to improve his advanced ballhandling skills. What better guy to teach him the tricks of the trade than Arenas whose made a career of lulling defenders to sleep & blowing by them with hestitation moves, jab steps, etc? What better guy to teach Wall how to properly use picks & screens to create space?

It's too bad we'll never see it happen.

[nate33]

Magic fan here,wanted to ask you guys if a VC for Arenas trade was to happen,do you think a Arenas/Dwight duo would work,considering Arenas has never played with a dominate big?

I disagree with Raf.

I think Arenas will be great alongside Dwight. Orlando has an offense predicated around an inside-out system. Arenas is an incredible shooter with unlimited range. Arenas is also a very good penetrator but isn't the best and dishing off once he gets there. He usually takes the layup (and makes it) himself. Dwight may not get as many easy dunks, but he should get even more offensive rebounds as the defense collapses on Arenas.

Defensively, Arenas looked more fundamentally sound last year under Flips system than in EJ's awful system. On the other hand, his lateral quickness was a bit slower. Microfracture surgery usually takes two years to heal fully. It's possible that he has completely regained his lateral quickness now.

[Hoopalotta]

Yeah, I think it would work for the Magic too, I'll post some thoughts on the Magic forum later when I have a credible keyboard.

[nate33]

Wall definitely can stand to improve his advanced ballhandling skills. What better guy to teach him the tricks of the trade than Arenas whose made a career of lulling defenders to sleep & blowing by them with hestitation moves, jab steps, etc? What better guy to teach Wall how to properly use picks & screens to create space?

It's too bad we'll never see it happen.

Yeah, I'd kinda like to see it too. I'm really torn on this. The best scenario would be to give the Arenas/Wall pairing an opportunity, and then trade Arenas if it didn't work out.

I'm just not so confident that it will be easy to trade Arenas if things don't work out. For that reason, I can completely understand why management would pull the trigger on an Arenas trade now.

[Brenice]

According to some, Wall needs to improve his ball-handling and can turnover the ball. Turnovers can be expected but need to be improved. There have been spurts where Gil has turned the ball over but he is a superior ball-handler. My point is this, I think Gil can help make the game easier for Wall and Wall can help make the game easier than Gil. In my opinion, they can share the ball-handling, not 50/50 when they are on the court together, but 40/60 Gil/Wall.

Who do you leave open? When the backcourt was Gil and DeShawn, you left open DeShawn and at one point, DeShawn was I can't feel my face 50/50 on 3's. Take Gil away and DeShawn turned into DeBrick 20/80. What will Wall look like playing next to Gil and what will Gil look like not playing next to DeShawn, but Wall? Could be a win/win situation for both. Could be.

Wall definitely can stand to improve his advanced ballhandling skills. Are you saying that Wall has advanced ballhandling skills? I'm not debating this, I'm asking you cause I don't know for sure. What better guy to teach him the tricks of the trade than Arenas whose made a career of lulling defenders to sleep & blowing by them with hestitation moves, jab steps, etc? What better guy to teach Wall how to properly use picks & screens to create space?

It's too bad we'll never see it happen.

Are you betting your house on it or running your mouth?

[fishercob]

Gil is as good as gone. It's just a matter of when & for who...

When the Hinrich trade was consummated, that was the writing on the wall.

I don't buy that at all. Hinrich has some appeal as a stopgap, but he's clearly not in our longterm plans. This team has struggled mightily from a backcourt depth standpoint for as long as I can remember. We know all too well that injuries happen. I think there's a great deal of appeal in an Arenas-Wall-Hinrich trio, in that any two can play together.

Yes, Gil is likley going to "overpaid" for the balance of his contract. But you know what? Wall is likely going to severely underpaid for the balance of Gil's contract too. Look at what the starting back courts and back court rotations of top teams made last year and will make this year.

The Celtics paid Allen & Rondo almost $22M, plus another $6.5M for RObinson and Tony Allen. Ray Allen is a FA now, but ROndo's deal jumps from $2M to $9M.

The Lakers paid $28M for Kobe and Fisher, plus another $7M for Vujacic (ugh) and Shannon Brown

The Spurs paid $23M for Parker and Ginobili and another $6M for Mason and HIll.

The Magic paid $24M for Nelson and Carter and another $8M for Carter and Pietrus and another $3M+ for J-Will and ANthony Johnson

Look at what some crap teams paid for their back courts: Pistons paid $30M+ for Rip, Gordon and Stuckey. Toronto paid $22M+ for their collection of backcourt scrubs.

In the proper context, $30M or so for what may be one of the top back courts in the league isn't a bad value. It's what the elite teams are paying their guys. Furthermore, while their may be some defensive matchup issues at times, a healthy Wall-Arenas back court stands to be absolutely devastating offensively. There's just too much strength, fitness and skill. If we can get out on the break, we're going to murder some teams.

I also think that playing alongside a player of Gil's talent and overall caliber is important to Wall's development. Wall needs talent around him to grow and succeed. Shipping off Gil for scraps is just going to (Please Use More Appropriate Word) Wall's growth. There may come a time when the Wiz are "ready" to unload Gil, but I don't think now is that time at all.

[Hoopalotta]

^ By all accounts, we offered Gil for Carter straight up right before the draft. I think Dat's assessment that Gil is as good as gone sounds about right given that.

[fishercob]

^ By all accounts, we offered Gil for Carter straight up right before the draft. I think Dat's assessment that Gil is as good as gone sounds about right given that.

I dunno Hoop. I saw it reported a lot of places, but my impression is that there was a lot of re-reporting of the same report. I didn't see anything from any hardcore insider that convinced me the Wiz had made a concrete offer. I really don't believe everything I read. If I did, I'd be convinced Bosh was going to both Miami and Chicago. I'm guessing it was discussed the way a lot of hypotheticals are discussed and that the Wiz were trying to get a sense of Gil's market value. Maybe I'm totally wrong and Ernie was begging Otis Smith to take Gil off his hands, but that's not how I read the tea leaves.


"Insider" Mike Lee's take:

The Washington Wizards spoke with the Orlando Magic recently about a potential swap of Gilbert Arenas for Vince Carter, according to a league source with knowledge of the situation. The source added that the talks didn't get very far and that it was merely a "business as usual" exploratory conversation between teams around the NBA draft. "Nothing to it now," the source said.

I think this is the kind of stuff that happens all the time. Really no biggee.

[miller31time]

I like Gilbert and wouldn't mind seeing him go to another team and have a lot of success there while the Wizards continue to rebuild. By the time Gilbert is out of his prime, Wall will be just starting to enter his and hopefully by that time, the Wizards will have built a young, talented, title-contending team.

It would be in the best interests of both Arenas and the Wizards for the two to part ways (IMO).

[Hoopalotta]

I don't have a mouse to do any cut and pasting on my wife's wee lil' macintosh right now, but I pretty well took Mike Lee's piece here to mean that we offered the deal:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizard ... lbert.html

My take was that it was downplayed because Orlando wasn't sold on it as of that moment.

Now we've got Ken Berger today up in the wiretap there and if you follow the link to the article, it's interesting; but Berger's definitely a pretty serious insider to my understanding.

[fishercob]

I like Gilbert and wouldn't mind seeing him go to another team and have a lot of success there while the Wizards continue to rebuild. By the time Gilbert is out of his prime, Wall will be just starting to enter his and hopefully by that time, the Wizards will have built a young, talented, title-contending team.

It would be in the best interests of both Arenas and the Wizards for the two to part ways (IMO).

I don't buy this line of thinking either. Where is it written that all key guys need to be close in age for a team to have big success? Look at Boston with Allen (35), Pierce (32), Rondo (24) and Perkins (25). Denver with Melo (26), Billups (34), Nene (27) and Smith (24). The Spurs with Duncan, Manu, Parker and Hill (33, 32, 28, 24). The Suns with Nash, Amare, J-Rich, Frye, Lopez, and Grant Hill is a total melting pot of ages. Almost all of the time, it's a mix.

I'm not concerned that in three years Wall will be 22,Gil will be 31, Dray will be 27 and Seraphin (nickname alert, please!) will be (23). That looks good to me frankly.

[jivelikenice]

I think this deal makes more sense as a 3-way. I just don't see Vince as wanting to being Washington and from our ercpective he'll only be blocking pt from a younger player.

[fishercob]

I don't have a mouse to do any cut and pasting on my wife's wee lil' macintosh right now, but I pretty well took Mike Lee's piece here to mean that we offered the deal:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizard ... lbert.html

My take was that it was downplayed because Orlando wasn't sold on it as of that moment.

Now we've got Ken Berger today up in the wiretap there and if you follow the link to the article, it's interesting; but Berger's definitely a pretty serious insider to my understanding.

I addressed the Mike Lee report above (it was an "edit to add" sich-uh-ation).

Here's what Berger wrote:

To that point, the Magic are said to be actively considering trade scenarios that could provide Dwight Howard with a post-up power forward to play with, a play-maker to replace what Hedo Turkoglu brought to the 2009 Eastern Conference championship team, or a dynamic point guard. It would be easy enough to move Rashard Lewis to small forward and satisfy Howard’s first wish – something he feels strongly enough about to begin “heavily recruiting” free agents that fit the description, according to a source. As for the second item, if I were GM Otis Smith, I’d be exploring a Vince Carter-for-Joe Johnson sign-and-trade; what an upgrade that would be for a team that sorely missed Turkoglu in the conference finals against Boston this year. The third option is the most interesting: A person with knowledge of the Magic’s plans said a trade for Gilbert Arenas, the one-time superstar whose reputation took a massive hit with his gun suspension last season, remains a “definite possibility.” Smith has a good relationship with Arenas, but a stumbling block could be the fact that Howard has questions about whether Arenas would fit in. If Howard gets the answers he’s looking for, there could be legs to the Arenas-to-Orlando scenario.

Again, I'm not seeing anything in there that says the Wiz were shopping this deal hard. This unnamed source may just be presuming the Wiz would make a Gil-Carter swap if offered, and I'm hardly convinced they would. Further, there's no time frame given. A Gil to Orlando deal may make sense down the road for Orlando, once their other options don't work out, but the Wiz just may decide they like what they have in a Gil-Wall backcourt by that time. I think it's a lot of speculation but really nothing resembling evidence that the Wiz are trying to move Gil. Especially not in light of Ted's specific comments about re-embracing Gil as a person and player.

[nate33]

I like Gilbert and wouldn't mind seeing him go to another team and have a lot of success there while the Wizards continue to rebuild. By the time Gilbert is out of his prime, Wall will be just starting to enter his and hopefully by that time, the Wizards will have built a young, talented, title-contending team.

It would be in the best interests of both Arenas and the Wizards for the two to part ways (IMO).

I don't buy this line of thinking either. Where is it written that all key guys need to be close in age for a team to have big success? Look at Boston with Allen (35), Pierce (32), Rondo (24) and Perkins (25). Denver with Melo (26), Billups (34), Nene (27) and Smith (24). The Spurs with Duncan, Manu, Parker and Hill (33, 32, 28, 24). The Suns with Nash, Amare, J-Rich, Frye, Lopez, and Grant Hill is a total melting pot of ages. Almost all of the time, it's a mix.

I'm not concerned that in three years Wall will be 22,Gil will be 31, Dray will be 27 and Seraphin (nickname alert, please!) will be (23). That looks good to me frankly.

Note that no other contending team has a core piece younger than 24. Indeed most of the young players listed were secondary players (Smith, Hill, Lopez). Rondo is the only 24 year old who is truly an irreplaceable core piece on a contender. So If we follow your plan, we won't be contending until Wall is 24. Arenas would be 33 years old at the time.

[bullitz]

I find it interesting that Kirk Hinrich's influence is being talked up on the defensive intensity/hustle side. IMO Gil's influence on the offensive/"nobody's gonna spend more time working on their game then me" side can be just as influential in helping Wall maximize his potential. Also, like it's been mentioned Wall needs adequate offensive options around him to build up his confidence. Surrounding him with inept offensive players will do nothing to mature his game--at least in the sense that he is very unselfish and is best as a facilitator. He's not a Lebron, for instance, that will come in the league scoring like a maniac while being a facilitator because teams are scared to let him score. He's more like a Jason Kidd type whose offensive gave will likely be good enough to depend on at times in the clutch but nothing to rely on consistently--at least initially.

[nate33]

I think this deal makes more sense as a 3-way. I just don't see Vince as wanting to being Washington and from our ercpective he'll only be blocking pt from a younger player.

Yes, a 3-way would be best. If nothing else, we could exchange Vince for an expiring contract that doesn't have a $4M buyout obligation next year.

The only question is whether we'll get a better package now or at the Trade Deadline.