Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

[Hoopalotta]

I am at a disadvantage discussing this as I really can't cut and paste anything right now and don't have a mouse. But I still read the Mike Lee piece to be that we made an offer, also when considering the next paragraph after the one quoted.

I just don't believe discussions over $80 million dollar contracts are the sort of thing that happens often and I can't see the Zards turning down an out if offered.

I'll mention more when I'm at a desktop.

[Dat2U]

Wall definitely can stand to improve his advanced ballhandling skills. Are you saying that Wall has advanced ballhandling skills? I'm not debating this, I'm asking you cause I don't know for sure. What better guy to teach him the tricks of the trade than Arenas whose made a career of lulling defenders to sleep & blowing by them with hestitation moves, jab steps, etc? What better guy to teach Wall how to properly use picks & screens to create space?

It's too bad we'll never see it happen.

Are you betting your house on it or running your mouth?

Other than his jumper, Wall's biggest weakness may be his advanced ballhandling skills. Right now his game is based on pure speed and just blowing by people. He lacks a certain craftiness to his game that could really take him to the next level.

I'd bet my house on Arenas being gone. If not by the end of July then by training camp. I have no evidence of this, but I think some folks in the front office feelings are still hurt by the gun incident & the fallout thereafter (see the hit piece by John Mitchell weeks back). My belief is that while Leonsis is ambivalent on dealing Arenas, he's allowing Ernie to make the call. And Ernie & much of the old guard, likely wants Arenas on the first ticket out of town.

[DCZards]

In the proper context, $30M or so for what may be one of the top back courts in the league isn't a bad value. It's what the elite teams are paying their guys. Furthermore, while their may be some defensive matchup issues at times, a healthy Wall-Arenas back court stands to be absolutely devastating offensively. There's just too much strength, fitness and skill. If we can get out on the break, we're going to murder some teams.

I also think that playing alongside a player of Gil's talent and overall caliber is important to Wall's development. Wall needs talent around him to grow and succeed. Shipping off Gil for scraps is just going to (Please Use More Appropriate Word) Wall's growth. There may come a time when the Wiz are "ready" to unload Gil, but I don't think now is that time at all.

Well said, fishercob, well said. I get chills up my leg everytime I fantasize about what a Arenas-Wall backcourt can do if GA, like I think he will, understands what a boost it would be to his career and fame to be paired with Wall.

I appreciate you breaking down the collective salries of some of the other top backcourts. When you put it that way, and consider that Wall will be on the low, low end of that salary scale, it makes a backcourt of Wall, Arenas, Hinrich reasonable...if not downright cheap in comparison to some of the les skilled backcourt combos.

[WizStorm]

I think this deal makes more sense as a 3-way. I just don't see Vince as wanting to being Washington and from our ercpective he'll only be blocking pt from a younger player.

Yes, a 3-way would be best. If nothing else, we could exchange Vince for an expiring contract that doesn't have a $4M buyout obligation next year.

The only question is whether we'll get a better package now or at the Trade Deadline.

If Gil plays like he did last year or even better, I think it's a far greater likelihood that a trade deadline deal for Gil will be viewed as game changer for some contender and the Wizards will get cap space AND prospects in return. No way do I deal Gil as a straight salary dump right now, especially doesn't make sense when you have a GM who say he values collecting assets. I especially hate a deal for a guy with a known reputation for sulking and being a malcontent when not playing for contender. Not the role model you want for John Wall.

[BanndNDC]

just wanted to point out that the accounts do not say arenas was offered for carter straight up end of story. they say that there were some discussions involving the two players and provide no further details. it's pretty much a speculation driven rumor.

my guess is that the wizards wanted something more than just carter (probably a pick) and are wary of the backlash a straight salary dump would incur (and make no mistake there would be a fan backlash). this rumor keeps popping up either as a trial balloon from the wizards side or more likely (considering eg's notrious tight lippedness) is being manufactured by orlando to try and make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[DCZards]

I'd bet my house on Arenas being gone. If not by the end of July then by training camp. I have no evidence of this, but I think some folks in the front office feelings are still hurt by the gun incident & the fallout thereafter (see the hit piece by John Mitchell weeks back). My belief is that while Leonsis is ambivalent on dealing Arenas, he's allowing Ernie to make the call. And Ernie & much of the old guard, likely wants Arenas on the first ticket out of town.

If the "old guard's" problem is that their "feelings are still hurt" over what happened 8 months ago, Teddy needs to kick them in the butt and tell them to "get over it." The Zards have an opportunity to field a backcourt with maybe two of the top ten guards in the game. They can't let hurt feelings get in the way of that happening.

[fishercob]

I like Gilbert and wouldn't mind seeing him go to another team and have a lot of success there while the Wizards continue to rebuild. By the time Gilbert is out of his prime, Wall will be just starting to enter his and hopefully by that time, the Wizards will have built a young, talented, title-contending team.

It would be in the best interests of both Arenas and the Wizards for the two to part ways (IMO).

I don't buy this line of thinking either. Where is it written that all key guys need to be close in age for a team to have big success? Look at Boston with Allen (35), Pierce (32), Rondo (24) and Perkins (25). Denver with Melo (26), Billups (34), Nene (27) and Smith (24). The Spurs with Duncan, Manu, Parker and Hill (33, 32, 28, 24). The Suns with Nash, Amare, J-Rich, Frye, Lopez, and Grant Hill is a total melting pot of ages. Almost all of the time, it's a mix.

I'm not concerned that in three years Wall will be 22,Gil will be 31, Dray will be 27 and Seraphin (nickname alert, please!) will be (23). That looks good to me frankly.

Note that no other contending team has a core piece younger than 24. Indeed most of the young players listed were secondary players (Smith, Hill, Lopez). Rondo is the only 24 year old who is truly an irreplaceable core piece on a contender. So If we follow your plan, we won't be contending until Wall is 24. Arenas would be 33 years old at the time.

It's not a plan and it's not a rule, nate. But if you're looking at it that way, the rules may be different for superstars and #1 overall picks. Shaq was 22 when Orlando went to the FInals. Duncan was 22 (with a 33 year old Robinson) when the Spurs won their first ring. Magic was 21 with a 33 year old Kareem. Parker was 22 with the Spurs in 04-05.

And as I said before, just because it may not "time out right" for Gil to win a ring with Wall, doesn't mean it makes sense to move Gil now. Wall needs talent around him to develop.

But even so, look at the 33 year+ olds playing for contenders this year: Billups, Allen, KG, Duncan, Nash. Pierce, Dirk and Kobe are 32. I expect Gil to be a very effective player when he's 33. I think he'll get another good contract after this one expires.

[nate33]

I think this deal makes more sense as a 3-way. I just don't see Vince as wanting to being Washington and from our ercpective he'll only be blocking pt from a younger player.

Yes, a 3-way would be best. If nothing else, we could exchange Vince for an expiring contract that doesn't have a $4M buyout obligation next year.

The only question is whether we'll get a better package now or at the Trade Deadline.

If Gil plays like he did last year or even better, I think it's a far greater likelihood that a trade deadline deal for Gil will be viewed as game changer with the Wizards getting cap space and prospects in return. No way do I do Gil as a straight salary dump right now for a GM who say he values collecting assets. I especially hate a deal for a guy with a known reputation for sulking and being a malcontent when not playing for contender. Not the role model you want for John Wall.

I hear you. I too think that if Arenas gets the chance, he'll improve his trade appeal. But there's also the possibility that we may be in the midst of a perfect storm of owner generosity with respect to player contracts. There is a lot of money chasing precious few star-caliber free agents. Arenas may never be easier to dump than he is now.

I wish I had a crystal ball.

[CeltsfaninDC]

Magic fan here,wanted to ask you guys if a VC for Arenas trade was to happen,do you think a Arenas/Dwight duo would work,considering Arenas has never played with a dominate big?

I think it would work out fine. Gil does not mind sharing the ball, but has never had a big man to get it to down low. I believe he has had a great amount of frustration over the bigs he has played with in the past who could barely catch the ball. i specifically remember a game we went to with Kwame playing C where he tried 3 times in a row to get him the ball only to have him cough it up, dribble it off his foot or just not catch it at all. After the 3rd time Gil just shook his head all the way back up court and Kwame didn't see the ball again all night.

[nate33]

It's not a plan and it's not a rule, nate. But if you're looking at it that way, the rules may be different for superstars and #1 overall picks. Shaq was 22 when Orlando went to the FInals. Duncan was 22 (with a 33 year old Robinson) when the Spurs won their first ring. Magic was 21 with a 33 year old Kareem. Parker was 22 with the Spurs in 04-05.

And as I said before, just because it may not "time out right" for Gil to win a ring with Wall, doesn't mean it makes sense to move Gil now. Wall needs talent around him to develop.

But even so, look at the 33 year+ olds playing for contenders this year: Billups, Allen, KG, Duncan, Nash. Pierce, Dirk and Kobe are 32. I expect Gil to be a very effective player when he's 33. I think he'll get another good contract after this one expires.

Fair points, but I don't think age is the only reason to unload Arenas. It's just one of the reasons. There's also the fact that he plays the same position as our #1 pick. Yes, we can try to make it work with Arenas playing out-of-position at SG, but it's not ideal. Finally, there's the money argument. Is Arenas (playing out-of-position at shooting guard) really going to help this team more than $20M a year in free agents?

I know there's a certain emotional attachment to Arenas. I feel it too. Not only is he a fun and exciting player who seems like a real person off the court, there's also the "rally around the underdog" angle. We want to support Arenas and then stick our tongues out at the rest of the world when Arenas starts kicking ass again.

But let's face it, retaining Arenas at his salary doesn't make a lot of sense from a basketball standpoint. I'll put it to you this way:

If Arenas was a free agent right now, would you sign him to a 4-year $80M contract? Would you do so knowing you already have two other capable point guards on the roster? Would you do so knowing Arenas' injury history?

[LyricalRico]

If Arenas was a free agent right now, would you sign him to a 4-year $80M contract? Would you do so knowing you already have two other capable point guards on the roster? Would you do so knowing Arenas' injury history?

Wow, I hadn't thought about it that way. You're absolutely right that there is a strong emotional pull towards Gil from a lot of us. But when you put it like that, it's pretty clear that trading Arenas is the rational, responsible thing to do. I really don't see any way you could argue against that.

[DCZards]

I know there's a certain emotional attachment to Arenas. I feel it too. Not only is he a fun and exciting player who seems like a real person off the court, there's also the "rally around the underdog" angle. We want to support Arenas and then stick our tongues out at the rest of the world when Arenas starts kicking ass again.

But let's face it, retaining Arenas at his salary doesn't make a lot of sense from a basketball standpoint. I'll put it to you this way:

If Arenas was a free agent right now, would you sign him to a 4-year $80M contract? Would you do so knowing you already have two other capable point guards on the roster? Would you do so knowing Arenas' injury history?

Yup, there's a lot of love for GA in these here parts...and I'm guilty as charged. Boy, would I love to see the reaction of the Gil haters (like those on the "Sports Reporters" on ESPN980) when Gil starts lighting up the league again.

Can't say I disagree with the essence of your argument that he's probably not the best fit for a team that already has one outstanding PG (Wall) and that the Zards (and it's fan base) wouldn't even be thinking about signing Arenas if he were a free agent. But he's not a free agent. He's ours and someone who has grown on a lot of us. Maybe most importantly, GA's also a very, very good b'ball player that can help this team win games. And those things count for something, too.

[fishercob]

I'd bet my house on Arenas being gone. If not by the end of July then by training camp. I have no evidence of this, but I think some folks in the front office feelings are still hurt by the gun incident & the fallout thereafter (see the hit piece by John Mitchell weeks back). My belief is that while Leonsis is ambivalent on dealing Arenas, he's allowing Ernie to make the call. And Ernie & much of the old guard, likely wants Arenas on the first ticket out of town.

You'd bet your house on a gut feeling? You underestimate Leonsis. He's not signing off on huge moves because Ernie got his feewings hurt. Ted has said publicly on multiple occasions that personnel decisions based on emotion are invariably bad decisions. He wants data to back up personnel moves -- especially big ones.

[jimij]

Nate - I don't think anyone would sign Arenas to a 4 year 80 million dollar deal. However, that's not the situation. My belief is that he should finally be healthy two years after his last knee injury and regardless of cap space, I don't truly believe that there's anyone we will realistically be able to acquire that can help us more than a motivated Gilbert Arenas. He may be overpaid, but by how much is really the question?

In my mind the majority of the "all-stars" in this league are overpaid. I'd love to have Wade/James(choke)/Nowitski etc but once you get past them, there's no one on the market who is worth even 75-80% of the full max deal but many of them will get paid like it regardless. Bosh is the only other guy I would normally consider paying but with Blatche signed at 3 mill per year, I have no interest in Bosh for the max.

I'd rather take my chances that either Gil will end up being worth most of his contract or at the very least that he will generate much more in trade value by actually playing for us rather than us dumping him for expirings just to get out of his contract.

Cap space is great but just look at NY as an example of why its fools gold. They are going to end up missing out on the big targets and then they will have to overpay for Joe Johnson/Amare/Boozer just to have something to show for it. I'll take the bird in hand even though I recognize that I'm probably in the minority with that view.

[fishercob]

It's not a plan and it's not a rule, nate. But if you're looking at it that way, the rules may be different for superstars and #1 overall picks. Shaq was 22 when Orlando went to the FInals. Duncan was 22 (with a 33 year old Robinson) when the Spurs won their first ring. Magic was 21 with a 33 year old Kareem. Parker was 22 with the Spurs in 04-05.

And as I said before, just because it may not "time out right" for Gil to win a ring with Wall, doesn't mean it makes sense to move Gil now. Wall needs talent around him to develop.

But even so, look at the 33 year+ olds playing for contenders this year: Billups, Allen, KG, Duncan, Nash. Pierce, Dirk and Kobe are 32. I expect Gil to be a very effective player when he's 33. I think he'll get another good contract after this one expires.

Fair points, but I don't think age is the only reason to unload Arenas. It's just one of the reasons. There's also the fact that he plays the same position as our #1 pick. Yes, we can try to make it work with Arenas playing out-of-position at SG, but it's not ideal. Finally, there's the money argument. Is Arenas (playing out-of-position at shooting guard) really going to help this team more than $20M a year in free agents?

I know there's a certain emotional attachment to Arenas. I feel it too. Not only is he a fun and exciting player who seems like a real person off the court, there's also the "rally around the underdog" angle. We want to support Arenas and then stick our tongues out at the rest of the world when Arenas starts kicking ass again.

But let's face it, retaining Arenas at his salary doesn't make a lot of sense from a basketball standpoint. I'll put it to you this way:

If Arenas was a free agent right now, would you sign him to a 4-year $80M contract? Would you do so knowing you already have two other capable point guards on the roster? Would you do so knowing Arenas' injury history?

I love and respect you, but I couldn't disagree with this post more. The "emotional attachment" has nothing to do with my argument.

You bring up age, and I think I provide some good data that the age disparity between Gil and Wall isn't good reason to dump Gil. Remember, dumping him is what we're talking about here.

No, I wouldn't sign Arenas to 4/$80M today. But that's incomplete IMHO. Would I sign Arenas and Wall for 4 years at a total of around $100M today? Yeah, I think I would and I think many GM's would too. My point just because someone is "overpaid" in absolute terms doesn't mean they should be traded for expirings if the opportunity presents itself.

I am not convinced that Gil at the "2" is any more out of position than he is as a point guard. His game is a lot more like Wade and Iverson's than it is Kidd or Paul's.

Would I rather have Gil or $20M a year in FA's? I don't know, depends on the FA's. We have an owner who has publicly come out and said he doesn't believed in paying big money for free agents. And projecting down the line, who are we going to get?

From a basketball standpoint, having a talent like Gil next to Wall makes a ton of sense. The Wizards are never going to win anything without at least one more superstar playing with Wall. He needs to learn now how to balance the needs of his entire team. Dumping Gil and playing Wall alongside a bunch of scrubs doesn't help Wall or the Wiz in the long term.

[WizStorm]

I would argue that switching Gil to pure PG was playing him out of position. For years, everyone though Gil with a tall PG would be the ideal complement. Now, for some reason all of a sudden Gil is viewed strictly as scoring PG that has to have the ball in hands to succeed. I hardly think that is the case.

And the "would you sign him now" argument is irrelevant to me. I'd much rather look as the situation as what is the best way to utilize the assets that we have and the best way to maximize the current investments. Trading Gil when his value is somewhere below laughable is not the best time to move him, especially when the Wizards actually have time on their side during this rebuilding effort. There is no big plan to use the immediate cap space from moving Gil and it's going to be a long time (if ever) before you find someone of his talent to be able fill his shoes.

And yes, following Gil all these years and knowing the person and talent he is, I do want to see him have success here in DC. I'd really hate to have the last memory of Gil in DC as him getting drummed out of town unceremoniously because of some bad decisions blown way out of proportion and ownership/management throwing him under the bus as the scapegoat for all the Wizards' woes.

[benb331]

There is some top notch analysis in this thread. Thanks for the great read, guys.

[nate33]

You bring up age, and I think I provide some good data that the age disparity between Gil and Wall isn't good reason to dump Gil. Remember, dumping him is what we're talking about here.

No, I wouldn't sign Arenas to 4/$80M today. But that's incomplete IMHO. Would I sign Arenas and Wall for 4 years at a total of around $100M today? Yeah, I think I would and I think many GM's would too.

Yes, you'd do that because Wall is an incredible value at $20M over 4 years. He's such a good value that you're willing to absorb Arenas' considerably less valuable deal. I too would take them both at $100M. But I'd much rather have just Wall at $20M than both for $100M. It's a no-brainer. And that's the choice we are ultimately being presented with (assuming Arenas for Carter is on the table).

From a basketball standpoint, having a talent like Gil next to Wall makes a ton of sense. The Wizards are never going to win anything without at least one more superstar playing with Wall. He needs to learn now how to balance the needs of his entire team. Dumping Gil and playing Wall alongside a bunch of scrubs doesn't help Wall or the Wiz in the long term.

If your argument is that we need some more talent alongside wall, then we ought to dump Arenas and acquire somebody like Rip Hamilton who is a natural SG and costs half as much. (I'd rather instead explore more BOYD options and use the newfound cap room to acquire more picks and young talent, but that's a different debate.)

The bottom line is that I'm not particularly concerned if Wall struggles a bit during his rookie year as teams gang up on him. It'll just make him better in the long run. It'll also make Blatche better as he bears a greater portion of the offense in Gil's absence. It'll also lead to a higher draft pick next year which makes us a better team in 2-3 years.

[nate33]

One more point: if that Arenas for Vince trade goes down, it'll also satisfy your wish for Wall to have an offensive threat to take some of the scoring responsbility off of Wall. Carter isn't chopped liver. He can still go get 18 points a night on this team.

I think it makes pretty good sense to keep Carter for the first half of the year to take some of the scoring responsbility off Wall. As Wall and Blatche continue to build confidence, we then trade Carter for expirings at the Trade Deadline and make way for the new youth era with a talented young core and an absurd amount of cap space.

[nate33]

I would argue that switching Gil to pure PG was playing him out of position. For years, everyone though Gil with a tall PG would be the ideal complement. Now, for some reason all of a sudden Gil is viewed strictly as scoring PG that has to have the ball in hands to succeed. I hardly think that is the case.

The problem is defense, not offense. I think Arenas and Wall can coexist just fine in a dual-guard offense. Heck, I think they'll be fantastic. I'm worried about defense. I don't want a 6-2 Arenas guarding SG's, and I don't want a 196 pound John Wall guarding SG's. I just don't see a compelling reason to put up with a nightly mismatch and pay $80M for it.

Arenas is a good player, but at $20M a year, he's overpaid no matter how you slice. Maybe it would make sense for the right team in the right situation with the right personnel to go ahead and overpay for his services. But that team is clearly not the Washington Wizards. We don't need a 29-year-old star. We don't need another PG. And we don't need to be paying somebody $20M a year for the next 4 years while we're in the midst of a rebuild.