Blue Somethings Against Minnawhatevers: July Meh to ?

[Schad]

Tonight's matchup:

Hot Carl vs. Redheaded Stepchild

Tomorrow's matchup:

Some guy vs. Rzevuvuzela

The day after or something:

Some other guy vs. the young guy with the funky glasses. No, not Chacin.

[kwamebargnani]

Litsch is teh suck.

[Avenger]

Can we release this noodleballer already

[Hoopstarr]

O'Doyle sucks!

[kwamebargnani]

LOL @ all these homerun swings. Cito is a happy man.

[Avenger]

praying this start means Jessie Litsch's career with the Jays is done, can't stand that guy and never understood the fascination with his BP arm.

[Hoopstarr]

Carl Pavano, you have just been...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrTK9lvkCQg[/youtube]

...ENCARNACION'D

[Geddy]

The day after or something:

Some other guy vs. the young guy with the funky glasses. No, not Chacin.

Horace Grant?


Just as i tune in i see the Twins score a run... i should turn it off so the blue somethings can win

[Randle McMurphy]

praying this start means Jessie Litsch's career with the Jays is done, can't stand that guy and never understood the fascination with his BP arm.

It's pretty easy to kick someone when they are down a year coming off TJ surgery.

As you know, I've been over Litsch's above-average, Marcum-like FIP/xFIP numbers in his last healthy season (2008) multiple times now. And considering he's still only 25, that's what you are hoping to get from Jesse Litsch going forward (which would make him a good #4/5 option or trade piece).

If he doesn't get it back off the surgery, he doesn't get it back (not that we're anywhere close to coming to that conclusion). But please don't pretend like the guy wasn't a good pitcher or never contributed significantly to the organization (3.6 WAR) in his first two years.

[s e n s i]

Hitters are turning on his patented sauceball at an alarming rate. I don't quite know the nuances of FIP or xFIP, but I do know that Litsch has been serving up the goods for quite a while now- and doesn't seem to have the arm or stuff required to succeed at this level, long-term.

[s e n s i]

Carl Pavano, you have just been...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrTK9lvkCQg[/youtube]

...ENCARNACION'D

What a gem. This NEEDS to be posted after every E5 slobberknocker. I gotta watch this movie again, btw.

[Randle McMurphy]

Hitters are turning on his patented sauceball at an alarming rate. I don't quite know the nuances of FIP or xFIP, but I do know that Litsch has been serving up the goods for quite a while now- and doesn't seem to have the arm or stuff required to succeed at this level, long-term.

He's only a year off TJ and has had 5 starts at this level (if that's what you mean by "quite a while now").

All I'm saying is let's save the judgements for when there is actually something meaningful to judge.

[s e n s i]

His stuff and arm is AAA fodder, and nothing I've seen since '08 indicates otherwise. Everyone has an overachieving stretch in their career once in a while, ya know?

[tsherkin]

All I'm saying is let's save the judgements for when there is actually something meaningful to judge.

It's true that Litsch is coming off TJ surgery... but so was Marcum when he started this year.

Marcum's first 5 games this season came with a 3.44 ERA, a WHIP of 1.00 and 7.4 K/9 (4 K/BB).

By contrast, Litsch's first 4 games had him posting an ERA of 6.98, a WHIP of 1.55, a K/BB of 2.14 and 3.26 K/9.

ERA, of course, is of limited value, but the point is that he's getting smacked around, badly. Marcum made it through 7+ IP in all but one of his first 5 starts (and went through 6 in that start).

In Litsch's first 4 games, he's gone 2.1, 7, 4 and 6 IP.

And then there was tonight. A riveting 5.1 IP performance, Litsch managed to give up 5 ER, 2 walks, 2 dingers and struck out no one while allowing 7 hits.

Coming off of TJ surgery isn't a meaningful excuse in light of what Marcum's doing, and what he's been doing since day one of the season when he came back. There's got to be some allowance, to be sure, but Litsch has been godawful by any measure. His xFIP is over 5.7.

Jesse's throwing a 90 mph fastball on average, which is up a little from his usual stuff, and has looked roughly like what comes after eating a corn dog covered in chili. Can't even blame it on baBIP, since that's only a little higher than league average. He's just been terrible.

Now, one thing that IS true of Litsch is that his control right now is noticeably worse than the 29-game sample that we have of him pitching healthy. IF he can get it back, then he'll turn things around at least a little and he can still be a respectable pitcher. His problem is that his stuff is weak and he doesn't have an outstanding defense behind him, just a decent one (and his control isn't all that hot atm).

I'd say it's not quite accurate to call his arm AAA fodder, though; it's below average, but he's got several MPH more than Marcum on that fastball. Marcum pitches it 87-88 mph and Litsch is throwing 90 mpg right now (or was before tonight's game, which I didn't really watch).

I think the problem is that we have so small a sample for Litsch it's hard to tell who the real Jesse is. He was mediocre in his rookie season, getting smacked around pretty hard and having control issues. Then he was solid to very good in 2008 with a much better defense behind him. Then he was terri-bad for 2 games last year and had injury issues that led to the surgery, and he's been spectacularly poor so far this year. He's been worse than Tallet, actually.

So we'll see. If he can get his command back, his stuff isn't any worse than Marcum's (though Shaun does have a little more movement on his pitches) and he's got MORE velocity, so he could be a valuable back-end starter.

But right now? Holy dung beetles, Batman, does he ever reek.

[Randle McMurphy]

It's true that Litsch is coming off TJ surgery... but so was Marcum when he started this year.

Except Marcum had 19 months of rest off the surgery, Litsch has had only 12. Significant difference.

but Litsch has been godawful by any measure. His xFIP is over 5.7.

He's been very bad so far, I haven't denied that. I just don't think it means much of anything about his future as a pitcher on this team or in this league.

I think the problem is that we have so small a sample for Litsch it's hard to tell who the real Jesse is.

Bingo. In his last full season before getting hurt (I don't put any stock in those 2 starts in 2009), he was an effective pitcher for the Jays. He's only had a total of 7 starts since that season in the majors...hardly enough to write off somebody, especially when you consider the TJ issue.

So we'll see. If he can get his command back, his stuff isn't any worse than Marcum's (though Shaun does have a little more movement on his pitches) and he's got MORE velocity, so he could be a valuable back-end starter.

Marcum has that killer change, though, putting him well above Litsch now in my mind. Those added strikeouts more than make up for his lack of groundballs.

[Hoopstarr]

Good start for Rzep. Got Mauer swinging.

[Peteros]

Hill out for second game in a row??

[Randle McMurphy]

Rzep looks to be starting right where he left off from last year. Good to see.

[Avenger]

now this is real groundball pitcher unlike that joke we threw out the other day

[Geddy]

The Raps board is just plain depressing at the moment with all the spazzing out and bitterness. I think this place will be a good safe haven away from that crap going on there.