How do you judge upside?

[301baller]

over the past few years, i've seen on this board and a ton of other places, people make the comment _______________ has more upside than _______________. How are you determining that? Is it based on youth alone? Athleticism???? What factors are you using to gauge that? In my mind, it's hard to assess that without knowing a particular players work ethic.

[nate33]

Age, athleticism and length. You can't change those (well, you can change athleticism to some degree, but not by too much). Theoretically, anything else can be improved upon with hard work and practice.

[mhd]

I'd also add instinct Nate. That is innate. You either have it or you don't.

[Ed Wood]

I'd also add instinct Nate. That is innate. You either have it or you don't.

Well then you ought to add bowleggedness to the list because in this day and age you either have it or you don't unless you can get your hands (legs) on a horse.

[pancakes3]

don't forget the tantalizing appeal of "flashes of brilliance" games that blatche and nick young are infamous for.

[montestewart]

Also figuring into it is how much of the players has been shown already. A senior or someone who's played in Europe for some time amy have demonstrated many limits, that a freshman in college (who might even still be growing physically) has not shown yet. More of an unknown ceiling, thus more "potential" or upside.

[mzaretsk]

if a player doesn't pan out as per projections, did he not reach his upside or did he not have upside to begin with?

:kfb

[Zonkerbl]

Potential is having the physical tools to develop an NBA skill, but not having figured it out mentally yet, for whatever reason. Blatche's jumper, for example, you could tell he had good mechanics but it didn't start to fall regularly until just recently.

Also a lot of guys just aren't bulked up enough yet. E.g. McGee's defense -- nothing wrong with his defensive game except his head (which should catch up eventually) and his lack of bulk.

If not for his peanut head and his lousy hands KFB would have "reached his potential." He has a nice jumper. Etc. etc. Just never seems to be able to accomplish anything on the court.

[301baller]

if a player doesn't pan out as per projections, did he not reach his upside or did he not have upside to begin with?

:kfb

good effing question. and what I was wondering when people talk about upside (which i persoanlly think is ridiculous) according to today's scouts, Larry Bird, and Chris Mullin wouldn't have ANY upside.

[montestewart]

if a player doesn't pan out as per projections, did he not reach his upside or did he not have upside to begin with?

:kfb

good effing question. and what I was wondering when people talk about upside (which i persoanlly think is ridiculous) according to today's scouts, Larry Bird, and Chris Mullin wouldn't have ANY upside.

Scouts, fans, teams had a fairly high confidence that those two guys games would translate well (in Bird's case, very well) to the NBA. They didn't really need to have any projected upside. Upside is seeing the possibility that a player will develop to be much more than they are at the time of the projection. Maybe the player has a fair set of potential offensive skills, but hasn't shown ability to work within a team offense, play team defense, or stay focused (like NY), all things that might be improved. Maybe a player is tall and haslong arms and great leaping ability and reflexes, but is too thin and hasn't shown ability to work within a defensive scheme and has limited offensive skills (like McGee).

Cole Aldrich vs. Hassan Whiteside illustrates the point. Most observers felt that Aldrich had shown and greatly developed his abilities about as far as he would, and perhaps could have a long career as a solid starter or rotation player, but nothing spectacular. Nothing about his game convinced observers that he might ever blow up to be something much more than he appeared to be at the time of the draft. Not much upside there. Whiteside, a little more risky, with obvious physical attirbutes perhaps comparable to McGee, but failing so far to really put it all together. Is it focus, dedication, need for more weight, hitting the weight room, attitude, who knows? But many observers felt his game could potentially improve greatly in the pros. A little more risk (so he ended up drafted in the 2nd round, below most predraft projections) and possibly much greater reward, or upside.

[no D in Hibachi]

I an attempt to provide some fresh discussion on the board I dug up this old thread (the same should Arenas stay/go has been discussed at length in nearly every thread). I am curious to hear what posters think about the upside of McGee vs. the upside of Blatche. Both are relatively young, Blatche is about to turn 24 and McGee is 22. Both were very impressive during their third go round of summer leage. Blatche posted 19.7/11.0 while McGee posted 19.5/9.3. Both have great length for their position. McGee is clearly more athletic than Blatche, but Blatche isn't a chump athlete to his defense. Blatche has a great skill set for a big, which is better than McGee's, but McGee has great skills as well.

Between the two who has the most upside? Who do you think is most likely to reach their potential? Based on what we've seen do you think a front line tandem of Blatche/McGee can grow to be the front court of a championship caliber team?

[nate33]

That's a really good question. It's a difficult one to answer because the potential for both players is really high, but the mindset for both players to realize their potential is pretty low.

Let's grade them on a scale of 1-10 in four categories: physical attributes, basketball skills, basketball IQ, work ethic. By "physical attributes", I mean length and athleticism. By "basketball skills", I mean the hand-eye-coordination, reflexes and balance to execute basketball functions such as shooting, catching, passing, post moves and defense. By "basketball IQ", I mean the ability to read and react to plays in real time and avoid stupid fouls and turnovers. By" work ethic", I mean their dedication to working on their game in the offseason, and the consistency of their effort during games.

MCGEE:
Physical attributes: 10 - There aren't 5 players in the league blessed with better length and athleticism. The only thing holding him back is a lack of lower body strength, but I figure that'll get better once he stops growing and fills out.
Basketball skills: 5 - Pretty good hands, pretty well-coordinated. Not a good shooter but decent enough from the free throw line. He's not really awkward in any way, but he doesn't really blow you away with his ball skills. He's not Kevin Garnett out there, but he's not Brendan Haywood either.
Basketball IQ: 2 - Just terrible. I should probably give him a 1 but I'm being kind.
Work ethic: 5 - His great motor on the court is offset by his mediocre off the court practices. I have to assume that he doesn't spend much time in the film room given his lack of basketball IQ. And he has failed to put on much strength in the offseason.

BLATCHE:
Physical attributes: 6 - Great length but average athleticism.
Basketball skills: 9 - His ball skills are outstanding in nearly every aspect of the game. He's an excellent shooter, an excellent passer, he has great footwork in the post, he has good hands. The only thing holding him back is that he doesn't have the best technique on defense yet.
Basketball IQ: 5 - He has excellent court vision but he lacks the innate ability to be in the right spot for rebounds, and he is still prone to the occasional stupid foul on D.
Work ethic: 6 - I think he has improved considerably in this regard. Two years ago, he was a 2 but starting last summer he seems to have really committed to working on his game. He still suffers from occasional lethargy on the court, but not nearly as much once he became a starter and was involved in the action more.

Overall, I'd say Blatche will pan out to be the better player on the strength of his basketball skills and superior basketball IQ. If McGee is ever going to beat Blatche, he has to get a lot smarter on the basketball court.

[gesa2]

Great breakdown Nate. The only quibble I would have is with JaVale's work ethic, I think it's more like a 3. His stamina is an issue on the court, and he hasn't shown interest in learning/working on defensive position and technique. It'd be interesting to see how the rest of the posters here rate these 2, or how we would rate NY and Wall too.