Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

[Benjammin]

The only question is what is the return Washington must get for them to go ahead and pull the trigger. Is it an expiring contract? Pure cap space? A pick or prospect? Or is it just about anybody with a pulse that has a shorter, cheaper contract?

For me, the minimum offer would be something along the lines of:

Curry or raw cap space
Gallo
Future 1st

Otherwise it's just not worth trading him right now, especially since we have a halfway decent chance of competing for a playoff spot (which is okay when you have cap space and a young team). Certainly the Arenas for Turk/Calderon crap won't fly.

Don't go to the Knicks board with that. They think Gallo is a future all star. Their thing is they would consider a deal if McGee is included as sweetener. Obviously the Wizards shouldn't be interested in that.

[Darren]

What about Dampier (non-guaranteed), Stevenson (exp) & 2nd for Agent Zero? Does it serve you guys a little better than VC's exp?

[nate33]

What about Dampier (non-guaranteed) & Stevenson (exp) for Agent Zero? Does it serve you guys a little better than VC's exp?

Sure. DUST > Vince Carter for our purposes.

The real issue is whether or not it's prudent to dump Arenas for cap space. We are seeing first hand that cap space isn't all it's cracked up to be. Arenas posted superstar numbers last season after shaking off the rust. He might still be the Arenas of old, or at least close to it. And that guy was a top 15 player in the league. Is it wise to give away a talent like that when teams are doling out max contracts for guys like Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay? Suddenly, Arenas remaining 4 years at $20M a year doesn't seem so bad.

I've been in favor of dumping Arenas for cap space but I'm in the minority on this board. And to tell you the truth, I'm starting to doubt my convictions. I really would like to see Arenas and Wall play together a bit before I conclude that it can't work.

If Cuban offered a Damp dump for Arenas and said "take it or leave it, now or never", I'd probably go ahead and pull the trigger. But I'm a lot more conflicted about it than I was at the start of this offseason.

[Hoopalotta]

I called the Yi trade and this one too:

You know what's interesting? The number of posters who've changed their minds multiple times on the Gil question.



By no means am I calling anyone out as I'm definitely in that group myself, but it really shows the level of agonizing over the situation.

We're like a sixteen year old girl trying to decide what to wear.

[nate33]

I just want to say I'm still in favor of dumping Arenas for cap space. I haven't actually changed my mind. I'm just a little closer to the fence than I was earlier.

I actually spent the last 10 minutes rereading this thread. After reading all my posts from page 10 to page 14, I've dug in. Dumping Arenas for cap space is unquestionably the smart move for this franchise. It'll mean that next season won't be quite as exciting, but it'll help us win a championship in the long run.

The clincher is that, by having all that cap space, we'll be in position to pick up a ton of bargains in 2012 with the CBA forces teams to "Allan Houston" their overpaid players. We'll have our pick of guys like Okafor and Joe Johnson for peanuts just when we'll be looking for a few veteran free agents to go into "win now" mode.

2012 will be the year. The CBA will push down the cap, players will need to be cut, and Dwight Howard will be a free agent. I don't want to be paying a 31-year-old Arenas $22M at that time.

[willbcocks]

I've been consistent in my desire to get 28 year olds with big contracts who don't play defense off the team.

It started with Caron, moved to Tawn, now must end with Gil.

Give me cap space or expirings.

[verbal8]

If Cuban offered a Damp dump for Arenas and said "take it or leave it, now or never", I'd probably go ahead and pull the trigger. But I'm a lot more conflicted about it than I was at the start of this offseason.

I would hold out for some incentive to move Arenas. I would try to pry away Beaubois even if it meant taking on Matt Carroll instead off Deshawn.

[AceDegenerate]

[LyricalRico]

^ The customary KZ sour grapes post when others disagree with him. Almost as predictable as my one liners for any and all pro-EG posts. Almost...

[LyricalRico]

I just want to say I'm still in favor of dumping Arenas for cap space. I haven't actually changed my mind. I'm just a little closer to the fence than I was earlier.

I actually spent the last 10 minutes rereading this thread. After reading all my posts from page 10 to page 14, I've dug in. Dumping Arenas for cap space is unquestionably the smart move for this franchise. It'll mean that next season won't be quite as exciting, but it'll help us win a championship in the long run.

The clincher is that, by having all that cap space, we'll be in position to pick up a ton of bargains in 2012 with the CBA forces teams to "Allan Houston" their overpaid players. We'll have our pick of guys like Okafor and Joe Johnson for peanuts just when we'll be looking for a few veteran free agents to go into "win now" mode.

2012 will be the year. The CBA will push down the cap, players will need to be cut, and Dwight Howard will be a free agent. I don't want to be paying a 31-year-old Arenas $22M at that time.

That's about where I'm at as well. The fiscal prudence of removing his contract outweighs the desire to satisfy my curiousity to see Gil and Wall play together. Other than adding some short-term excitement, there is absolutely zero longterm value to keeping Arenas. By the time this team is ready to contend he won't be on it. Since we already know that, why not move him now so that we can take advantage of 2012 as nate is suggesting?

Again, this has nothing to do with my personal feelings. I've been a Gil fan since he was at Arizona. Him signing with the Wiz is still the most exciting moment for me as a Wiz fan. If he was only making 2/3 of his current salary, keeping him would be a no-brainer. But the reality of his deal is such that unloading him is the logical thing to do given the current circumstances (the team is rebuilding and the impending CBA restructuring).

[Hoopalotta]

If the Superfriends come together to form the NBA equivalent of Voltron in Myhammy, I'd say that would be another argument for completing the deconstruction and moving Gil.

Remains to be seen how that plays out, but we might as well sign Craig Ehlo if we're trying to be a contender any time soon if things go as Broussard's suggesting.

[Severn Hoos]

Here's the thing about cap space: I understand that it's very useful for more than just outright signings, and I would certainly prefer having cap space to not having it. But I think this once-in-a-century FA summer has affected people's perceptions of what you can do in FA. Try this exercise: Imagine the Wiz do get enough cap space for a max signing, either in 2011 or 2012. Who do you sign?

Take a look at the Drafts since 2005. There really isn't much there. Who would you want to sign, hypothetically?

Well, the first guy is obviously Durant. Just re-upped with the Thunder. Off the market.
Next would be Chris Paul and/or Deron Williams (plus Derrick Rose). Except that we just got our Franchise PG of the future.
Brandon Roy? Signed through 2013, with Player (2014) and Team (2015) options after that. I suppose it's possible that the Blazers might have a reason to trade him at some point, and any team trying to get him would need to have cap space to pull it off. But, um - longer than long shot, to say the least.
Bogut - nice player, signed through 2014. Any lingering effects from the injury?
Horford? Interesting. He'd be a good fit, IMO - but then we'd have a glut of young big men. Nice problem to have, FWIW. Still, he'll be restricted in 2011, no way the Hawks just let him go.
LaMarcus Aldridge? Already got one of those, wears #7.
Noah? Same deal as Horford, Bulls hold the cards and won't let him go.
Oden? Probably won't be available, but even so - you want to take that risk on a max deal?
Love, Lopez, Mayo, Green, etc. - nice players, probably won't come available, and not worth major money.

Wanna trade for Kevin Martin? Might be able to get him (right now has 3 yrs @ $12M per left). Is he better than Gil?
Iguodala? Ariza? Who else has come into the league in the past 6 years who would be a) Realistically available via FA or trade, and b) Worth the money & other assets it would take to get him?

Only one guy - Dwight Howard has an opt-out in 2012. After that, clearing the decks to create cap space is more likely to net you the next Amare (I think he'll flop in NY, frankly) or no one (like the Nets this summer).

Right now, I have to say that Arenas is still much more valuable than cap space and potential acquisitions (which may never materialize). If Ted's willing to spend the money, we're better off with Gil, because I really don't think we'll find anyone better anyway.

[barelyawake]

The question isn't whether we will be better with Gil or capspace. I'd agree that Gil is better. The question is with Gil, how are we going to acquire the needed pieces to build a championship team? If you are of the belief that we currently have enough assets to rebuild with and are ready to take the next step out of the lottery and into attempting to build a championship team with what we got, I'd take issue with that. By jetisoning Gil, we can bottom out and get another franchise player to pair with Wall via the draft. You just demonstrated how we arent getting another via cap. And if you think Gil, Wall and Blatche can compete with the likes of the teams coming out of the free agency, I think that's really building us up to be much, much better than the reality. Now, if you have a plan to get us another franchise player with Gil on the roster, i'm all for it. I just don't see how that happens considering we have few assets to trade and Washington is an unlikely destination for free agents UNLESS we have a team viewed as packed with star youth and poised to have a brilliant future.

[Severn Hoos]

If the Superfriends come together to form the NBA equivalent of Voltron in Myhammy, I'd say that would be another argument for completing the deconstruction and moving Gil.

Remains to be seen how that plays out, but we might as well sign Craig Ehlo if we're trying to be a contender any time soon if things go as Broussard's suggesting.

Funny, because I see it just the opposite - the Leviathan rising from the Keys means we should keep Gil. I don't think Miami can win in year 1. Seems like it's just too much to ask to have those 3 guys carry the entire load for the regular season & 4 rounds of playoffs. Plus, the Lakers are still a very real threat for at least one more year of Kobe 'n Phil. But the cHeat are very likely to be prohibitive favorites in 2011-12 (maybe the Thunder take them down - oh that would be sweet).

So by 2012, Miami is ensconced as the top dog that everyone else is chasing. Chicago is well on their way to being the Stockton/Malone Jazz or Ewing's Knicks or Miller's Pacers: always hanging around, but never a true threat. Boston's toast, and only Orlando stands in the way.

So where does a FA who wants to take down the bullies sign up? Wall, Blatche, Young, and McGee doesn't really inspire fear in opponents or stir the courage of potential teammates. But Wall, Arenas, and Blatche - looking for the remaining piece to take the next leap - could be enticing for someone who would rather fight the BORG than assimilate.

Obviously, there are a million caveats: Is Arenas close to the same player he was? Can he thrive next to Wall? McGee, Young, and Thornton are all probably out in this scenario (though a double S&T for McGee and a huge TPE might be enticing for Big Name FA "X" in 2012. And of course, there's the issue of the new CBA.

I just think there's a far more compelling case to be made to FAs if Gil is on the team than if we're offering Wall and pure cap space.

[Severn Hoos]

The question isn't whether we will be better with Gil or capspace. I'd agree that Gil is better. The question is with Gil, how are we going to acquire the needed pieces to build a championship team? If you are of the belief that we currently have enough assets to rebuild with and are ready to take the next step out of the lottery and into attempting to build a championship team with what we got, I'd take issue with that. By jetisoning Gil, we can bottom out and get another franchise player to pair with Wall via the draft. You just demonstrated how we arent getting another via cap. And if you think Gil, Wall and Blatche can compete with the likes of the teams coming out of the free agency, I think that's really building us up to be much, much better than the reality. Now, if you have a plan to get us another franchise player with Gil on the roster, i'm all for it. I just don't see how that happens considering we have few assets to trade and Washington is an unlikely destination for free agents UNLESS we have a team viewed as packed with star youth and poised to have a brilliant future.

barely, that makes sense - and a frank admission that we're hoping for another high draft pick in 2011 actually does appeal to me, although probably not to most fans, and maybe not to Ted either. If that's the driving factor, than a Gil-for-cap-space deal is the way to go, for sure.

My point is simply that while it's tough to see how the team could acquire that necessary piece(s) with Gil on the roster, I don't see how they can do it without Gil on the roster either. Again, if it's a "Tank and hope for Lotto luck" strategy, then OK - so be it. Harrison Barnes might just be perfect at SF growing with Wall/Dray/McGee. I just think that strategy is fraught with as many or more risks than keeping Gil (for now at least) and seeing how things shake out over the next two years.

[LyricalRico]

Right now, I have to say that Arenas is still much more valuable than cap space and potential acquisitions (which may never materialize). If Ted's willing to spend the money, we're better off with Gil, because I really don't think we'll find anyone better anyway.

Your breakdown of impending free agents was spot on, but (at least speaking for myself) signing a big name isn't my sole motivation for wanting to trade Arenas. For me, it's about breaking this team down and starting back up from scratch.

If we had drafted anyone other than John Wall, I'd be in the "keep Arenas" camp. But with Wall this team has the opportunity to start completely over and build around him. I would much rather do that than watch a healthy Gil keep the team around .500 and we end up in the same situation we were in during the EJ playoff runs - not good enough to contend, but just good enough to miss out on all the top prospects.

And if i understood nate's 2012 plan correctly, it's not all about Dwight Howard or any other specific free agent. If the new CBA is different enough from the current system, there could be quality players still under contract that are available because teams need to get under the new cap (similar to the way quality NFL free agents change teams because of the salary cap). So it's not all about free agency, at least not for me.

I think we're incorrectly boiling this debate down to two false choices:

1. Keep Gil and hope that he, Wall, and Blatche can form the core of a contender.
2. Trade Gil and use the cap space to sign a superstar in 2012 and then become a contender.

The problem is that I don't think that either of those scenarios are likely. I think these are the more likely scenarios:

1. Keep Gil and the team flounders because of chemistry issues.
2. Keep Gil and the team hovers around .500 but can't take the next step.
3. Trade Gil and stink but at least have options to acquire talent in various ways.

Options 1 and 2 can only end with Gil leaving the team before they are a contender, either by a trade down the road or his contract simply expiring. At least Option 3 gives us the chance to accelerate the rebuilding process by getting higher picks and having the cap space to acquire more picks or potentially a star. If we're going to have to wait to be a contender in either scenario, I'd rather take a shot at accelerating things.

And even if in the end we can't accelerate the process, all we will have lost is a couple of seasons competing for the 8th seed, which I don't see as a big deal in the grand scheme of things. For me, the potential to accelerate the path to greatness will beat out almost certain mediocrity every time.

[Dat2U]

By jetisoning Gil, we can bottom out and get another franchise player to pair with Wall via the draft.

How bad do you think we can be? I don't see us being NJ or Minnesota bad, even then, its a shot in the dark.

And honestly, I'm not all that excited in tanking for Mason Plumlee or Jeff Taylor. Nice players I'm sure but the draft really does look suspect next year. They got Donatas Motiejunas at #6 on DX for 2011. Ugh...

I'm not sure tanking is the way to go. I don't see a huge difference b/w drafting 8 or 16. If our cupboard was truly bare or if it was a potentially loaded draft maybe I'd feel differently but IMO there's more long term benefit in fielding a team that can actually compete.

I'm more worried about internal development of the Wizards roster than players who are still in college or overseas. I'd rather Wall, Blatche & McGee get a taste of winning than hoping for another 1 in 10 shot of landing a high pick and having to deal with another miserable season.

[Hoopalotta]

So by 2012, Miami is ensconced as the top dog that everyone else is chasing. Chicago is well on their way to being the Stockton/Malone Jazz or Ewing's Knicks or Miller's Pacers: always hanging around, but never a true threat. Boston's toast, and only Orlando stands in the way.

So where does a FA who wants to take down the bullies sign up? Wall, Blatche, Young, and McGee doesn't really inspire fear in opponents or stir the courage of potential teammates. But Wall, Arenas, and Blatche - looking for the remaining piece to take the next leap - could be enticing for someone who would rather fight the BORG than assimilate.

Very difficult to make the numbers work for that kind of scenario if we're talking about a max player and a shrinking cap. We'd probably have to sign nobody to a deal that ran through 2013 and then let McGee walk with probably at least $35 million tied up in Gil, Blatche and Wall. You bring in a few draft picks with Seraphin and we're well over $40 million with half the roster to fill.

Honestly, we'd just about have to set ourselves up for that in the same way that teams have set themselves up for this summer by making serious compromises fueled on faith. It's not impossible, but I highly doubt we can make that work.

I'm not saying I don't think there's a scenario where we could keep Gil, but I see it as being contingent on making our move next year. We could do real damage to ourselves if we try and set ourselves up for 2012 (edit --> with Gil in the fold; I'm not talking about the Nate/Rico idea). We'd be letting a lot of tangible opportunities to improve the club slip by while hovering around the periphery as a fringe playoff/late lottery team for two years.

[mhd]

We should keep Gil. Cap space is fools gold.

[Rafael122]

If we want to win, we keep Gil. I glanced at the 2011-2013 free agent class and one name sticks out and that's Dwight Howard. And chances are that guy is going to stay in Orlando, with the new arena and all. Our best bet is to keep the team we have now, and then make any necessary trades. The last two seasons have been awful, and I don't think the fanbase will deal with 2 or 3 more losing seasons like that.

With Arenas, he gives us our best chance at winning right now. Trading him, especially for expiring contracts is just a bad basketball decision. What do we have to gain? More cap space? Have you seen what these teams are doing right now?