Renouncing and Sign + Trading

[answerthink]

James and Bosh are making $14.5 million each. A contract valued at $107.5 million equates to $14.2 million for Wade. I believe Miller’s contract is now being estimated at $25 million. Anthony’s QO will likely be rescinded (team wouldn’t match any outside offers anyway) and his cap hold reduced to $854k (whereupon he can be offered a substantial raise after all remaining cap space is filled). That leaves $8.7 million to split between Miller and Haslem, perhaps equally (equates to $25 million over five years). Fisher would likely be offered only the minimum ($1.4 million), as would Barnes ($1.1 million).

My estimates are:
James: $14.5 mil
Bosh: $14.5 mil
Wade: $14.2 mil
Miller: $4.3 mil
Haslem: $4.3 mil
Jones (buyout): $1.5 mil
Chalmers: $854k
Anthony (cap hold): $854k
Roster Charges (5): $2.4 mil
Total: $57.6 mill

[Mezotarkus]

http://heathoops.net/

[Dunkenstein]

James and Bosh are making $14.5 million each. A contract valued at $107.5 million equates to $14.2 million for Wade. I believe Miller’s contract is now being estimated at $25 million. Anthony’s QO will likely be rescinded (team wouldn’t match any outside offers anyway) and his cap hold reduced to $854k (whereupon he can be offered a substantial raise after all remaining cap space is filled). That leaves $8.7 million to split between Miller and Haslem, perhaps equally (equates to $25 million over five years). Fisher would likely be offered only the minimum ($1.4 million), as would Barnes ($1.1 million).

My estimates are:
James: $14.5 mil
Bosh: $14.5 mil
Wade: $14.2 mil
Miller: $4.3 mil
Haslem: $4.3 mil
Jones (buyout): $1.5 mil
Chalmers: $854k
Anthony (cap hold): $854k
Roster Charges (5): $2.4 mil
Total: $57.6 mill

What does Miami have to gain by rescinding Anthony's QO?

[answerthink]

Miami has to gain a tiny bit of cap space ($205,731) to be re-directed to four players that have each agreed to take big pay cuts.

In exchange for this, neither the Heat nor Joel loses anything. The Heat can not match any outside offers anyway, which would make the QO largely irrelevant.

And Joel isn't going anywhere anyway. Because Miami continues to retain his Bird rights after the QO is rescinded (assuming it is rescinded on or before July 23), the Heat can, after all its remaining cap space is used up, utilize the Bird rights to offer him a contract of up to his max. While that is unlikely, a reasonable raise would certainly be understandable, particularly since the Heat has no centers currently on its roster.

I explain the strategy better here: http://heathoops.net/2010/06/heat-exten ... l-anthony/

[Dunkenstein]

Miami has to gain a tiny bit of cap space ($205,731) to be re-directed to four players that have each agreed to take big pay cuts.

But is this really true? As a player with a qualifying offer, doesn't Anthony take up a roster spot on Miami's team salary? If Miami rescinds his QO, doesn't he no longer take up that roster spot? So wouldn't Miami then be required to add an additional roster charge? And isn't Anthony's cap hold of $854K plus an additional roster charge of $473K larger than his QO of $1.06M?

[answerthink]

As a player with a qualifying offer, Anthony takes up a roster spot on Miami's team salary.

But if his qualifying offer is rescinded on or before July 23, Anthony continues to be a Heat free agent included in its team salary, now an unrestricted free agent at a reduced minimum salary amount. He would therefore continue to take up a roster spot, which means Miami would not be required to add an additional charge.

As an aside, I keep referring to July 23 because after this date rescinding a QO (i) requires player consent and (ii) means the player is concurrently renounced.

[FGump]

I think in much of the comments above, you guys are failing to see how MIA could work past the cap rules

1 While the actions seem to say it's a moot point, I still believe Haslem could have signed a 6 yr 10.5% raise deal if the Heat's actions had taken the proper sequence. (And if the sequence is different than reported, it might still happen that way.)

2 Unless I'm missing something, (a) Anthony wasn't and didn't need to be renounced, and (b) he can be signed for any amount because he's a Bird rights player. AT, when you say "The Heat can not match any outside offers anyway, which would make the QO largely irrelevant" why couldn't they? That doesn't fit the rules imo.

[Dunkenstein]

Just for the record, the big three have been signed and the Heat have renounced all their FAs with the exception of Anthony.

FGump, you are correct that Haslem could have signed a 6 yr deal with 10.5 raises if he signed a contract starting at $4-5M before Bosh and LeBron were signed. I think, however, that he probably thinks he can get a larger payday elsewhere, maybe the Nets.

And with the report that LeBron picked up Fisher at the airport, Miami may be targeting Miller and an outside shooting PG like Fisher with their remaining cap room, not Haslem.

[answerthink]

FGump,

I mentioned the Heat would not match any outside offers because, from a practical perspective, that cap space is being reserved by the Heat to secure the services of Miller and Haslem.

I will also suggest that I do not believe Joel would accept any offer sheets. The Heat organization respects him very much. I imagine the Heat will ultimately utilize his Bird rights to compensate him fairly. It is a similar situation to the James Jones buyout, in which I mentioned Jones would offer a reduced buyout and the Heat would reward him for doing so. The Heat is now in discussions with Jones.

The contracts of Miller and Haslem have not been dealt with yet because Michael Beasley has not yet officially been traded. An apparent Minnesota bookkeeping issue will delay the issue until the start of next week.

As I mentioned previously, when it comes time for the Heat to execute contracts with Miller and Beasley, I imagine Joel's QO will be rescinded, his $854k cap hold will be retained and the rest of the team's cap space will be allocated between Miller and Haslem as negotiated between the parties. Naturally, until a full commitment from both Haslem and Miller is obtained and the contracts are being executed, JO's qualifying will remain outstanding.

Of course, this is all my own speculation.

[answerthink]

Dunk,

Haslem is a beloved member of the Heat organization, and a favorite of both Wade and Riley. I do not believe a Fisher addition would replace Haslem, unless Haslem were to have a change of heart.

It could certainly be possible that the funds that Miller and Haslem would be splitting would be further split to include Fisher. However, I imagine it is more likely that Miller and Haslem would take the remaining cap space for themselves, leaving only the minimum salary exception for Fisher, as it would provide more total dollars for the three (given that the minimum salary contract could be used with funds that exceed the cap).

Ultimately, I believe Fisher will be a tough sell and will return to the Lakers.

Of course, this is also just speculation.

[FGump]

I mentioned the Heat would not match any outside offers because, from a practical perspective, that cap space is being reserved by the Heat to secure the services of Miller and Haslem.

I still do not see any practical benefit to be gained from rescinding the QO and don't see it happening. If Anthony accepts an offer sheet before Miller and Haslem have signed, he no longer fits in their payroll (assuming they prefer Miller and Haslem) and they simply decline to match. But if they have already signed M/H, and they've retained the QO, then they could match. Keeping the QO therefore offers the certainty of their young developmental center. What's to be gained by rescinding the QO? I see nada.

[Three34]

Joel Anthony turns 28 next month, by the way. And he can't score or rebound. Balls to Joel Anthony.

[answerthink]

I am not sure why this is such a difficult concept to understand.

Rescinding Joel’s QO creates a small bit of cap space ($205,731) to be re-directed to Haslem and Miller.

More simply stated, if his QO is not rescinded, Joel reduces the Heat’s cap space by $1,060,120. If it is rescinded prior to July 23, Joel reduces the Heat’s cap space by $854,389. Therefore, rescinding it prior to July 23 provides the team an extra $205,731 to give to Miller and Haslem, all while retaining his Bird rights (which the Heat can then use to exceed the cap in offering him a pay raise).

Over the course of a 5-year contract, the $205,731 savings equates to $1.2 million total - small, but meaningful.

If your point is that it will not be rescinded until just before the Miller and Haslem contracts are executed, I certainly agree, and have stated that previously.

[FGump]

"If your point is that it will not be rescinded until the Miller and Haslem contracts are executed, I certainly agree, and have stated that previously."

My point is that I don't agree with your repeated assertion that the QO is certainly going to be rescinded - and in fact, don't see it happening at all.

Your numbers and posts keep assuming them wanting to reclaim the 200K for Haslem and Miller. I see that as such a minor difference that it won't be reallocated ... Instead that extra 200K in its present usage is already imo providing a bigger benefit - it allows the Heat to retain RFA control over the only center on their roster until they can fashion a deal that works for both of them.

In addition, I disagree with your statement that "The Heat can not match any outside offers anyway" because they certainly can depending on the timing, and would if the price was right. Of course if someone really wanted him badly, the time to persuade him to take an offer is right now.

[answerthink]

You are certainly entitled to your opinion. As long as readers can understand my rationale, that is all I care about. Allow them to form their own opinions.

I will attempt to more clearly state my own opinion one final time. I feel the Heat will eventually rescind the qualifying offer. I feel this way for three reasons:

1. Before the Miller and Haslem contracts are executed, the Heat would not be able match any outside offers whether the QO was rescinded or not, from a practical perspective. This is because the cap room that would be required to do so is being reserved for Miller and Haslem.

2. At the moment the Miller and Haslem contracts are executed, rescinding the QO would allow the Heat to recover $205,731 of cap space, which they can use to offer Miller or Haslem an additional $1.2 million over the life of a potential 5-year contract.

3. After the Miller and Haslem contracts are executed, if the QO were retained, the Heat could match any offer sheets. However, if the QO were rescinded, the Heat could match any outside offers that are made anyway, because they would still hold his bird rights.

The only real difference between retaining the QO and rescinding it would be that in the former scenario the Heat automatically has the right to match outside offers, and in the latter scenario Joel needs to grant the Heat that right.

There is simply no way Joel Anthony would accept an offer from another team, leaving an organization he has loved (and that has loved him) for years and forgoing the opportunity to start on a team that features Dwyane Wade, Lebron James and Chris Bosh, without first giving Pat Riley the chance to match it. And because of that, the cap space is more vital to the Heat than the qualifying offer.