Reinsdorf talks Big 3; Regrets Dealing Hinrich

[mysticbb]

http://www.82games.com/0910/09ORL4.HTM

Per 48 at the SG position
Redick 20.7p 4.2a 4.2r 53.2%efg
Hinrich 15.6p 5.5a 4.8r 49.6%efg

Check out the On/Off Court numbers for both, maybe that opens your eyes. Redick had a -9.2 APM last season, that guy isn't helping a team at all. Even though Hinrich's APM was also just -2.1, I rather have him and his defense on the SG spot. Really, if the Bulls want to beat the Heat, they have to do that with defense not with jump shooters with bad defense. Hard, physical basketball like the Celtics are playing it in the playoffs; that is the way to beat a more talented team. Redick is not the answer, imho. I much rather have Brewer and probably a combo guard like Roger Mason.

The best thing would be Hinrich and Sefolosha for the SG spot, that would be two great defensive players to throw at Dwyane Wade without being forced to constant double or trap him.

[clancy]

I thought the Kirk vs. Ben stuff would end when Ben left in free agency.

I really thought it would end when Kirk was also traded.

Can't wait till we're debating which should be hired as an assistant coach.

[The 6ft Hurdle]

Drafting Hinrich was the beginning of the end of the dark days of the Bulls as NBA punchline -- he helped the team reclaim a measure of respect around the league.

He was the posterboy the Bulls tried hard to push, indicating this culture change. But we lost 7 more games his rookie year with him as the starting point guard. We went from 30 wins to 23 wins. We also went 0-9 to start the 04-05 season. It really looked bleak that November '04, winless month, worst team in the NBA.

As far as changing the actual losses into wins and becoming this always exciting (yet middling team) of the late 2000s, that came when BG started doing his thing in the 4th quarter --- everything else fell into place from there.

Talk about trying to skew statistics. What you failed to mention about the 0 – 9 start to the 04-05 season, is that the team tried to start Gordon, and that they did not win, until they changed to starting Hinrich, with Duhon, and the season took of from there. You may remember that they tried to Gordon starting experiment, for several season, in a row, and always had to pull the plug.

You seem to give all the credit for a turnaround, not mentioning that the Bulls added rookies Deng, Gordon, Nocioni, Chandler, who came back to play 80 games, after missing 47 games the previous season. Skiles put a great defensive lineup on the floor, with new starters Duhon, and Deng, and even Nocioni, at times, and changed the mentality of the entire team.

Ben Gordon had a very small, and not necessarily positive impact on turn the team around. It you want to gauge his contributions, just look at the fact that in the season you mention, that even though his only positive attribute is scoring, and that Curry was the leading scorer, Hinrich was 2nd, and also lead the team in assists, Chandler lead the team in rebounds, and blocks. As exciting as his wildly inconstant shooting was, he could have never been considered as one of the top players, on the team, and will not be missed, by anyone in the Bulls FO, and for good reason.

The Bulls FO regrets losing Hinrich, since the team will be worse because of it.

The Bulls FO regrets losing Hinrich because Reinsdorf has a sentimental connection to him. There was very little basketball reason to keep him around.

The BG starting experiment lasted for 3 games his rookie year. I wouldn't describe an 0-6 record with the Duhon/Hinrich starting super-combo as the move that sparked anything other than maybe forcing Gordon to get really mad and do his thing.

Whoever was starting, it was pretty clear that it was Ben Gordon stepping up as the go-to-guy, especially when it came time to close out the game. He led the team in scoring off the bench in 6 of the 19 wins before we got to .500. Curry had 5, and Hinrich had 5, but BG scored in double figures in plenty of those wins as well. He did it against teams like Utah at Utah, Lakers, a KG-led Minnesota team, the defending champion Pistons. There was a reason he was being considered for both Rookie of the Year and 6th man of the year.

So yes, just because he had "only" one skill doesn't mean it wasn't the biggest driver of our victories that season and ultimately one of the biggest factors overturning the "losing culture" change of the next 4-5 years.

[cot2]

Do you always just make stuff up, and hope no one checks, there was no 0 - 6 start with those players. Gordon was so bad that he was pulled from the starting lineup after 3 games that season, but he first game that Hinrich started with Duhon, was the Utah game. They won that game, after a 0 - 9 start, and went on to go 47 - 26 from that point on. They stuck with Hinrich/Duhon in 05-06, when they had the best start in recent history staying pretty much .500, until late December, when they lost Deng. They tried the Gordon experiment again in 05-06, and 06-07,but gave up after 6 games each time. In 07-08 they let it run for 26 games, and a 9 - 17 record, before finally pulling the plug. Hinrich will be missed by the Bulls, for what he brought to the basketball court. Gordon is just not a very good basketball player, and we should all be glad that he is in Detroit. He is already missed by Gordon, who may only be able to resurrect his career, is if they can find a player like Hinrich to pair with him, in the back court, to better help hide his deficiencies.

[coldfish]

http://www.82games.com/0910/09ORL4.HTM

Per 48 at the SG position
Redick 20.7p 4.2a 4.2r 53.2%efg
Hinrich 15.6p 5.5a 4.8r 49.6%efg

Check out the On/Off Court numbers for both, maybe that opens your eyes. Redick had a -9.2 APM last season, that guy isn't helping a team at all. Even though Hinrich's APM was also just -2.1, I rather have him and his defense on the SG spot. Really, if the Bulls want to beat the Heat, they have to do that with defense not with jump shooters with bad defense. Hard, physical basketball like the Celtics are playing it in the playoffs; that is the way to beat a more talented team. Redick is not the answer, imho. I much rather have Brewer and probably a combo guard like Roger Mason.

The best thing would be Hinrich and Sefolosha for the SG spot, that would be two great defensive players to throw at Dwyane Wade without being forced to constant double or trap him.

I want a SG who can shoot. I want Derrick and Boozer to function and as such, they need a deep threat on the floor with them. Putting Hinrich or Sefolosha out there is telling DWade that he can either:
- Not play defense and rest
- Double down on Boozer or Rose

A perimeter defender really can't do that much now that hand checking is illegal. Beyond that, more than half the SG's in the NBA suck meaning that you have a defensive specialist on the floor with no one to defend.

As far as the on/off. Redick had a -5.1 platooning with Vince Carter. Hinrich had a -1 platooning with Janerro Pargo.

[coldfish]

Do you always just make stuff up, and hope no one checks, there was no 0 - 6 start with those players. Gordon was so bad that he was pulled from the starting lineup after 3 games that season, but he first game that Hinrich started with Duhon, was the Utah game. They won that game, after a 0 - 9 start, and went on to go 47 - 26 from that point on. They stuck with Hinrich/Duhon in 05-06, when they had the best start in recent history staying pretty much .500, until late December, when they lost Deng. They tried the Gordon experiment again in 05-06, and 06-07,but gave up after 6 games each time. In 07-08 they let it run for 26 games, and a 9 - 17 record, before finally pulling the plug. Hinrich will be missed by the Bulls, for what he brought to the basketball court. Gordon is just not a very good basketball player, and we should all be glad that he is in Detroit. He is already missed by Gordon, who may only be able to resurrect his career, is if they can find a player like Hinrich to pair with him, in the back court, to better help hide his deficiencies.

Over Gordon and Hinrich's career together, the Bulls were better with Gordon on the floor than Hinrich. As one note, in 06/07, Gordon started the whole second half of the season and in the playoffs, 51 games in total. In 05/06, Gordon started 47 games, again also during the team's best stretch. If you are going to accuse someone of making stuff up, make sure you get your facts straight.

[Rerisen]

Check out the On/Off Court numbers for both, maybe that opens your eyes. Redick had a -9.2 APM last season, that guy isn't helping a team at all.

In 2009, he had a -1.29 APM. Less worse than Hinrich, if you want to put it that way. What happened did he just suddenly become a way worse player? You have to look at much more than 1 year APM to take the measure of a player, its not reliable.

Further, not every player has the same value to every team. The Magic had an abundance of 3 point shooting and maybe that is why Redick wasn't all that helpful to them. The Bulls had virtually none and were at the bottom of the league. This squeezed defenses right on top of Derrick Rose severely limiting his strengths.

Last season the Bulls didn't defend the SG position any better than the year before when Gordon was starting there. I think Hinrich has been living on reputation on defense since 07. He was still above average there, but hardly effective enough to warrant his terrible offensive efficiency and gunshy nature on a team that was already strapped for offensive talent.

[Rerisen]

Do you always just make stuff up, and hope no one checks, there was no 0 - 6 start with those players. Gordon was so bad that he was pulled from the starting lineup after 3 games that season, but he first game that Hinrich started with Duhon, was the Utah game. They won that game, after a 0 - 9 start, and went on to go 47 - 26 from that point on. They stuck with Hinrich/Duhon in 05-06, when they had the best start in recent history staying pretty much .500, until late December, when they lost Deng. They tried the Gordon experiment again in 05-06, and 06-07,but gave up after 6 games each time. In 07-08 they let it run for 26 games, and a 9 - 17 record, before finally pulling the plug. Hinrich will be missed by the Bulls, for what he brought to the basketball court. Gordon is just not a very good basketball player, and we should all be glad that he is in Detroit. He is already missed by Gordon, who may only be able to resurrect his career, is if they can find a player like Hinrich to pair with him, in the back court, to better help hide his deficiencies.

Arguments against Gordon are endlessly cherry picked. The fact is the Bulls best season with the old core was 07, when they won 49 games. This also happened to be the season Ben Gordon started the majority of games at SG (51) and more than in any other season he was here. Not coincidence I think. Ben's offensive game helped spread the floor for lesser offensive players like Deng and Kirk, and they also had their best seasons that year.

It was also the only season we advanced in the playoffs, with Ben starting, and tearing up the Miami Heat in the process.

So it turns out the "Gordon experiment" worked pretty damn well that year. Better than any other SG experiment we had in the other years he was here and starting less.

[The 6ft Hurdle]

Do you always just make stuff up, and hope no one checks, there was no 0 - 6 start with those players. Gordon was so bad that he was pulled from the starting lineup after 3 games that season.

He had 17 points in his 2nd game. Didn't play much in the 3rd game. Seemed like a Skiles decision. Still we lost 6 more games with him out of the starting lineup.

but he first game that Hinrich started with Duhon, was the Utah game. They won that game, after a 0 - 9 start, and went on to go 47 - 26 from that point on. They stuck with Hinrich/Duhon in 05-06, when they had the best start in recent history staying pretty much .500, until late December, when they lost Deng.

You're again just making correlations, you're not actually talking about how these lineups impacted the game.

Gordon was the leading scorer of that Utah game, off the bench, BTW. He was the primary difference-maker.

They tried the Gordon experiment again in 05-06, and 06-07,but gave up after 6 games each time. In 07-08 they let it run for 26 games, and a 9 - 17 record, before finally pulling the plug.

We've always had rough starts to the season. It was bigger than whether BG started or not. There was "no experimentation", Gordon was undisputedly the leading scorer on or off the bench as much as they tried to force Deng or Hinrich into the role.

Hinrich will be missed by the Bulls, for what he brought to the basketball court.

Keep repeating it and it'll come true!

Gordon is just not a very good basketball player, and we should all be glad that he is in Detroit. He is already missed by Gordon, who may only be able to resurrect his career, is if they can find a player like Hinrich to pair with him, in the back court, to better help hide his deficiencies.

Gordon just needs playing time and preferably not with ball and shot-dominating guards.

[mysticbb]

I want a SG who can shoot. I want Derrick and Boozer to function and as such, they need a deep threat on the floor with them. Putting Hinrich or Sefolosha out there is telling DWade that he can either:
- Not play defense and rest
- Double down on Boozer or Rose

Yeah, because you can leave Hinrich wide open. :roll:

Hinrich can shoot the 3, no idea why you think he can't. And being able to defend is also needed. If Redick is out there it is telling Wade or James:

- Attack that white guy with the short arms

I fear that way more than a possible double for Rose or Boozer.

What you are trying to do is out-talent a team like the Heat, that is impossible. You can't beat them this way. You need to force them to take tough shots, shots they don't like, Redick on a team will just give them the opportunity to do what they can do best, attack the opponents 1on1.

A perimeter defender really can't do that much now that hand checking is illegal. Beyond that, more than half the SG's in the NBA suck meaning that you have a defensive specialist on the floor with no one to defend.

True, an individual defender can't do much, that is the reason you need always someone free to help out. It is the concept which helps, but that concept doesn't allow a weak perimeter defender either. Just be on front of the perimeter player, don't go for fakes and have the hand in his face when he is trying to shoot over you. All that is stuff Hinrich can do and Redick NOT.
What Redick brings to the table is valuable on offense, but his defensive failures are bigger than his efficient scoring. That is what I see in Redick and that is also what the numbers support.

In 2009, he had a -1.29 APM.

Yeah, also negative, nice. And that is what Redick has over his career his APM is negative.

Less worse than Hinrich, if you want to put it that way.

Hinrich has a longterm positive APM. You should probably take your own advice. ;)

This squeezed defenses right on top of Derrick Rose severely limiting his strengths.

Yes, and that is the reason the Bulls signed Kyle Korver, a better shooter than Redick and also not such a liability on defense.

Last season the Bulls didn't defend the SG position any better than the year before when Gordon was starting there. I think Hinrich has been living on reputation on defense since 07. He was still above average there, but hardly effective enough to warrant his terrible offensive efficiency and gunshy nature on a team that was already strapped for offensive talent.

Hinrich's defensive APM is among the best in the league. That is for a reason. Gordon is one of the worst. And Gordon usually defended the weakest link on the opponents offense, because he wasn't able to do much more. Hinrich had to go against the best perimeter player on defense.
And you should probably watch Hinrich a bit closer, the guy is making not many mistakes on defense, maybe only Shane Battier has better defensive fundamentals on the perimeter than Hinrich.
And as I showed in the other thread even with his "terrible" offensive efficiency Hinrich made the offense of the Bulls still better, better than Gordon in 2009 or Salmons in 2010. But who cares about those facts, right?

The problem is that even though I also like to see the ball in Rose' hand, sometimes Rose needs a break and has to play off the ball. Hinrich can handle the ball very well, he isn't the greatest passer on earth, but he does also not make many mistakes. That helps an offense too, but most people aren't looking at that. They want to see the fancy passes and alley oop or dunks, but basketball as a game is still about fundamentals and Hinrich's fundamentals are there, that is the reason he is in the league and the Wizards gladly took him on for less than the Heat had to pay for Cook despite his supposedly horrible contract.

[cot2]

The Bulls were 41-41 this year. Without Hinrich, they were 1 - 7, and 40 - 34 with him, and all but one of those games, as Hinrich as the only player missing, and the only win against the hapless Pistons. The Bulls were 4 - 8 without Deng, and 37 - 33 with him, 59% better chance they win when he plays. You may say that the Bulls would be worse without any player, but look at the Pistons.

I think that everyone would agree that the Piston were horrible, and suffered through many injuries. You would think in that situation, that even a NBDL player would help the team win. The Pistons were 27 - 55. When Ben played, they were 19 - 43, and 8 - 12 when he sat out. The Pistons are 31% more likely to lose when Gordon played.

I think it comes down to if a player helps your team win or not. It is pretty obvious what happened when Gordon did not have players that helped him hide all of his deficiencies.

[The 6ft Hurdle]

The Bulls were 41-41 this year. Without Hinrich, they were 1 - 7, and 40 - 34 with him, and all but one of those games, as Hinrich as the only player missing, and the only win against the hapless Pistons. The Bulls were 4 - 8 without Deng, and 37 - 33 with him, 59% better chance they win when he plays. You may say that the Bulls would be worse without any player, but look at the Pistons.

I think that everyone would agree that the Piston were horrible, and suffered through many injuries. You would think in that situation, that even a NBDL player would help the team win. The Pistons were 27 - 55. When Ben played, they were 19 - 43, and 8 - 12 when he sat out. The Pistons are 31% more likely to lose when Gordon played.

I think it comes down to if a player helps your team win or not. It is pretty obvious what happened when Gordon did not have players that helped him hide all of his deficiencies.

You posted this all before and didn't respond at all to anything anyone said.

[mysticbb]

It is pretty obvious what happened when Gordon did not have players that helped him hide all of his deficiencies.

The problem with those deficiencies is that those aren't easily accessable. It is not like there is a boxscore stats which tells us exactly how he used a possession or how his opponent acted against him. How many of his mistakes resulted into easy points? There is nothing like that easily accessable. But for Deng and Hinrich the weaknesses are visible in the boxscore and thus the people assume they are a bigger problem. But when you take a deeper look at it the opposite will be there. And that is the reason the FO decided to go with Deng and Hinrich rather than go with Gordon.

[MiamiHeat04]

Kirk is the only guard that Wade had trouble scoring agaisnt. I think he would have made an excellent SG/PG combo bench player.

[coldfish]

Sigh. I can't believe I almost got drawn into yet another Gordon - Hinrich debate.

Here are the Bulls rankings on offense and defense for the past 6 years, offense then defense:
2010: 27th 11th
2009: 15th 18th
2008: 26th 14th
2007: 21st 1st
2006: 23rd 7th
2005: 27th 2nd

The Bulls need offense much more than defense. Defense is important, but you can get really good defense with a few bad defensive players. Good defense is about scheme and player buy in. That's how Boston is so good with a gimpy Garnett and a bunch of guys who aren't known as good defenders.

[Rerisen]

Yeah, also negative, nice. And that is what Redick has over his career his APM is negative.

Yes, but Redick made a vast improvement last year. He is also coming into his prime for the next 2-3 years, much like HInrich was in 07.

I don't wan't to pay him 7m a year, but for only a 3 year deal, its not terrible. There is not much out there right now. We need to stop thinking in terms of what the SG can do in isolation, and more about how a SG's strengths helps our best player thrive in Derrick Rose.

Hinrich has a longterm positive APM. You should probably take your own advice.

So does Ben Gordon. My point was not to use long term APM, it was that you have to look at more than APM and that is all I ever hear you talk about.

The problem with short term APM is that it is extremely volatile and unreliable. The problem with long term APM is that it is capturing years of a players career that no longer accurately represent who he is as a player. This is exactly the case with Kirk Hinrich who's play has been plummeting for 3 straight years. To use numbers that include how he helped the team greatly in 07 when he was really good, does us little value going into 2011 when he is a much different player.

Yes, and that is the reason the Bulls signed Kyle Korver, a better shooter than Redick and also not such a liability on defense.

Korver can't start at the 2 and play huge minutes. He is more of a SF. Utah played him in specific matchups, and it worked well. You can't get fooled into thinking a matchup guy with limitations can extrapolate his success (be it on/off or whatever) into a larger role in any circumstances.

Otherwise the Spurs would be playing Matt Bonner 40 minutes a game.

Hinrich's defensive APM is among the best in the league. That is for a reason. Gordon is one of the worst. And Gordon usually defended the weakest link on the opponents offense, because he wasn't able to do much more. Hinrich had to go against the best perimeter player on defense.
And you should probably watch Hinrich a bit closer, the guy is making not many mistakes on defense, maybe only Shane Battier has better defensive fundamentals on the perimeter than Hinrich.
And as I showed in the other thread even with his "terrible" offensive efficiency Hinrich made the offense of the Bulls still better, better than Gordon in 2009 or Salmons in 2010. But who cares about those facts, right?

The Bulls defense was only .4 points better per 100 possessions with Hinrich last year, our offense was nearly a point WORSE. Despite his backups being crap.

When Gordon was here the team's offense was better by +3.4, +0.8, and +5.7 going back to 2007. The 'adjusted' numbers are made up numbers, that make guesses at players true value, but they are not what really happened. What really happened was the team was substantially better on offense with Gordon consistently than they were with Hinrich. What happened on defense is Hinrich's impact became less and less each season, as he was living on reputation.

I saw him get torched 1v1 numerous times last year, especially by bigger physical two guards. And the season opp PER SG numbers bear this out. Yes, Hinrich fundamentals and 'grit' are to be applauded and make us feel all warm inside, unfortunately, he was still undersized and outmatched and all his effort was in vain much of the time. The right footwork doesn't do a lot of good when guys are shooting right over you. Interestingly, Hinrich and Gordon have the exact same wingspan, and that is more important than how high the top of your head measures for size purposes on defense.

The year Gordon started 51 games the Bulls had the #1 rated defense in the league by Def Rating. 2 years earlier he also was a key player on the 3rd rated defense. This should be instructive for this team in going forward now that both Kirk and Ben are gone. As we need offense more than defense, it should show us a blueprint of how to bring in a offensive weapon, who while perhaps not being great on defense, we will be able to hide and integrate into a top notch defensive scheme all the same.

[fleet]

so....Orlando is matching for Redick. Since the rationalization in this thread of no regrets because of the Redick safety net is now out the window, I assume the regret is back in effect? A prayer is never as good as a bird (in hand). Seriously, Reinsdorf and the Bulls were taken in by a con, and thats what they really regret. As should we all. We got hurt.

I also saw some speculation that Reinsdorf is so smart he must have seen through Lebron and Co. I'm not sure John Wall's new tutor would agree from Washington DC.

[clancy]

Bottom line is that Kirk and Ben complimented each others' weaknesses and were a damn good backcourt for several years. Both were good citizens while they were here, both worked hard and contributed a ton to the team's success, and both are now gone.

How about instead of continuing to argue about who did more for the team, we just appreciate the good times and move on with the players who are here? No one is going to change their minds on this.