The Sixerfan1976 Off-Season Thread (Update: Page 61)

[sixerswillrule]

To be fair, he only said Joel Anthony is a better shotblocker.

Joel Anthony has 233 career blocks. Brand has over 1400 career blocks. Joel Anthony has a career bpg average of 1.4. Brand is at 2.0. You want to go blocks per 36 or 48? Fine...but think about what Joel Anthony will give you on the floor for 36 minutes versus Elton Brand. There is a REASON why Anthony is a 16 mpg player...and he gets his blocks agaiknst bench players in the 2nd and 3rd quarter....not in the guts of the game.

In this particular case, this is one where statistics do not tell the whole story, IMO.

For me, the comment by the poster (and the attitude that has been attached to some of his recwent posts) deserved the response that it got.

Brand also has career averages of 19 and 10, but he's clearly not that player anymore. Yeah, he still has his great length, but his significant loss in explosiveness has obviously hurt him. He can still be a 1.5 block per game guy but certainly not the 2.5 he was in his prime. Anthony can average that in half the minutes, though. He doesn't get more time because he's just not that good of a player. But the reason he gets any time at all is because of his shot-blocking. He's easily better in that aspect than the Brand we have today.

[tk76]

Elton Brand has been a below average starting PF since the first day he has put on a Sixers uniform. He has been paid 29M for his 1st 2 seasons and provided them production worthy of about 12M(6M/yr.) He will make about 17M/year for the next 3 years.

I really don't care what the reasons are for his poor performance. Whether it is recovering, poor coaching, new injuries or global warming.... You can say he will finally start performing like an above average starter this year- but its been 3+ years since he's been productive, so I'll believe it when I see it.

As far as I'm concerned Brand is nothing more than a sunk cost. He will be gone by the time this team is any good. If he gives them some productive minutes at PF then great. But I would be just as happy to see him transition into an effective bench player, and see a younger PF like Speights step up as a long term answer as the starting PF.

[dbodner]

To be fair, he only said Joel Anthony is a better shotblocker.

Joel Anthony has 233 career blocks. Brand has over 1400 career blocks. Joel Anthony has a career bpg average of 1.4. Brand is at 2.0. You want to go blocks per 36 or 48? Fine...but think about what Joel Anthony will give you on the floor for 36 minutes versus Elton Brand. There is a REASON why Anthony is a 16 mpg player...and he gets his blocks agaiknst bench players in the 2nd and 3rd quarter....not in the guts of the game.

In this particular case, this is one where statistics do not tell the whole story, IMO.

For me, the comment by the poster (and the attitude that has been attached to some of his recwent posts) deserved the response that it got.

I'm talking about 2010 not 2003.

[bebopdeluxe]

sixerswillrule:

While you are PROBABLY right that Brand is no longer a 19/10 guy, I will reserve judgement on exactly far away he is from that until 20-30 games into the season - once this team has had a chance to get Collins' principles down cold. I guess I never thought of him as an EXPLOSIVE guy...in some ways, I thought that he was a lot like what we think Turner will be...smart...good fundamentals...not the most athletic guy, but knows how to get where he wants to on the court...and based on that, I think that he should be able to get back reasonably close to where he was in the past - given that he is playing in a system that makes some sense, and playing with other good players.

Anthony is a 15-20 minute a game guy...playing against other teams bench players for the most part...and he has averaged 1.3 to 1.4 bpg - certainly solid numbers for a backup, but I never take numbers put up by bench guys and just assume that if you were to theoretically make these guys starters and double their minutes, you would double their stats. They would be playing longer stretches of time on the floor, against better competition...yada, yada, yada. When Brand was playing regular minutes in the NBA, he was an ELITE shot-blocker...in addition to being a 20/10 guy. If you want to do a simple "this was what Brand did last season, and these are Joel Anthony's stats" and come to a simplistic conclusion (and perhaps we can agree that the poster's mention of Anthony was a cherry-picked example to make a broader point about what he thought of Brand's current basketball abilities), we could do that all day long.

[tk76]

As for shot blocking and rebounding- it is not all about jumping ability. It also involves quickness. Brand may have never relied on explosive leaping, but he used to be quick on his feet. That will need to improve as much as coaching/scheme for him to start rebounding and blocking shots to where he is an asset on the floor. I don't care about the numbers he puts up, since that is very reliant on his minutes. But I want to see him being an asset on the floor.

[bebopdeluxe]

To be fair, he only said Joel Anthony is a better shotblocker.

Joel Anthony has 233 career blocks. Brand has over 1400 career blocks. Joel Anthony has a career bpg average of 1.4. Brand is at 2.0. You want to go blocks per 36 or 48? Fine...but think about what Joel Anthony will give you on the floor for 36 minutes versus Elton Brand. There is a REASON why Anthony is a 16 mpg player...and he gets his blocks agaiknst bench players in the 2nd and 3rd quarter....not in the guts of the game.

In this particular case, this is one where statistics do not tell the whole story, IMO.

For me, the comment by the poster (and the attitude that has been attached to some of his recwent posts) deserved the response that it got.

I'm talking about 2010 not 2003.

In 2005-06, Brand finished 5th in the NBA with 2.5 bpg.

In 2006-07, Brand finished 7th in the NBA with 2.2 bpg.

Neither of those years, as far as I can tell, were 2003.

[tk76]

In 2005-06, Brand finished 5th in the NBA with 2.5 bpg.

In 2006-07, Brand finished 7th in the NBA with 2.2 bpg.

Neither of those years, as far as I can tell, were 2003.

And since 2006/7 he has blocked 102 shots.. in 3 years! (less than Joel Anthony had in limited minutes last year alone.)

Until Brand shows otherwise, he is just like Jumaine Oneil. Not a scrub- but bringing up past glory does not have much relevance to the present.

[bebopdeluxe]

Elton Brand has been a below average starting PF since the first day he has put on a Sixers uniform. He has been paid 29M for his 1st 2 seasons and provided them production worthy of about 12M(6M/yr.) He will make about 17M/year for the next 3 years.

I really don't care what the reasons are for his poor performance. Whether it is recovering, poor coaching, new injuries or global warming.... You can say he will finally start performing like an above average starter this year- but its been 3+ years since he's been productive, so I'll believe it when I see it.

As far as I'm concerned Brand is nothing more than a sunk cost. He will be gone by the time this team is any good. If he gives them some productive minutes at PF then great. But I would be just as happy to see him transition into an effective bench player, and see a younger PF like Speights step up as a long term answer as the starting PF.

I agree - to this point, it has been a horrific signing. And I am IN NO WAY suggesting that I am expecting to see the EB that we got sold when he signed his "PhillyMax" contract. I am also not suggesting that should he put up the kind of year that I think is well within his capabilities to produce (16/8 with 1.5 bpg and 48-49% shooting in 30-32 mpg with credible low-post defense), that we will be getting anywhere near fair value back...but those numbers would certainly be solid/servicable numbers for an NBA power forward.

What I don't get is the belief among some on this forum that what we saw from him last season is what we should plug in for this season, and - to me - that just makes ABSOLUTELY no sense.

[dbodner]

Joel Anthony has 233 career blocks. Brand has over 1400 career blocks. Joel Anthony has a career bpg average of 1.4. Brand is at 2.0. You want to go blocks per 36 or 48? Fine...but think about what Joel Anthony will give you on the floor for 36 minutes versus Elton Brand. There is a REASON why Anthony is a 16 mpg player...and he gets his blocks agaiknst bench players in the 2nd and 3rd quarter....not in the guts of the game.

In this particular case, this is one where statistics do not tell the whole story, IMO.

For me, the comment by the poster (and the attitude that has been attached to some of his recwent posts) deserved the response that it got.

I'm talking about 2010 not 2003.

In 2005-06, Brand finished 5th in the NBA with 2.5 bpg.

In 2006-07, Brand finished 7th in the NBA with 2.2 bpg.

Neither of those years, as far as I can tell, were 2003.

Are you deliberately missing the point?

BTW, if I say:
He was a great shotblocker in 2003. Now, not so much.

If you respond with:
He was great in 2005 and 2006 as well.

That doesn't disprove my statement.

[bebopdeluxe]

In 2005-06, Brand finished 5th in the NBA with 2.5 bpg.

In 2006-07, Brand finished 7th in the NBA with 2.2 bpg.

Neither of those years, as far as I can tell, were 2003.

And since 2006/7 he has blocked 102 shots.. in 3 years! (less than Joel Anthony had in limited minutes last year alone.)

Until Brand shows otherwise, he is just like Jumaine Oneil. Not a scrub- but bringing up past glory does not have much relevance to the present.

Fair point. I will freely admit that there is an element of hope in my argument that he can return to being a solid (but not elite) NBA power forward. He obviously has to DO IT...but I think that Collins is smart enough to put Brand in situations where he can maximize his abilities, and I think that Brand is proud enough of his reputation and disgusted enough with what happened last season that he will give all he has to win the NBA Comeback Player of the Year award.

We'll see if he can do it.

[bebopdeluxe]

Derek:

I am not missing your point. I am pointing out your hyperbole.

[ZzAzZ]

I think that there is a difference between saying that Brand underperformed (in virtually every aspect of his game) under the SuperFund site that was the Sixers under EFJ - and he would have not been alone in that catagory, BTW - and saying that Brand is such a poor defensive player that you would take a one-dimensional career backup C over him.

Does that make sense?

I don't really get the point you're making now, people singled out his defense and more specifically his shot blocking. My point was it is not a bad thing that (in terms of shot blocking period) he is worse than a shot blocking center who only plays basically to block shots.

[dbodner]

Derek:

I am not missing your point. I am pointing out your hyperbole.

Again, though, it's not an exaggeration.

If I say:
He was a great shotblocker in 2003. Now, not so much.

If you respond with:
He was great in 2005 and 2006 as well.

That doesn't disprove my point. I picked 2003 simply because it was near his athletic prime, not because it was the last time he was an effective shotblocker.

[sixerswillrule]

Anthony is a 15-20 minute a game guy...playing against other teams bench players for the most part...and he has averaged 1.3 to 1.4 bpg - certainly solid numbers for a backup, but I never take numbers put up by bench guys and just assume that if you were to theoretically make these guys starters and double their minutes, you would double their stats. They would be playing longer stretches of time on the floor, against better competition...yada, yada, yada. When Brand was playing regular minutes in the NBA, he was an ELITE shot-blocker...in addition to being a 20/10 guy. If you want to do a simple "this was what Brand did last season, and these are Joel Anthony's stats" and come to a simplistic conclusion (and perhaps we can agree that the poster's mention of Anthony was a cherry-picked example to make a broader point about what he thought of Brand's current basketball abilities), we could do that all day long.

It's not fair to say that Anthony would average 2.8 blocks in 32 minutes per game. But it is fair to say that he would average more than 1.4 blocks in 32 minutes per game, more than Brand. He is (present tense) the better shot-blocker.

[Point-God]

As I stated before, Elton's blocks per minute decreased. He's just an overpaid disappointment who is producing less while out on the floor. Elton has to be the only veteran NBA player that I've ever seen where some members of the fan base hold out hope that he can be the player he was 4 seasons prior. People have come to the realization that the ship has sailed with Shaq and Iverson. But for some reason Brand has a group of supporters that are still hanging on to his past greatest as if it will resurface 4 seasons later. Most people do not feel that way, but there are some who turn a blind eye to his downward production trend. Brand is just another washed up formerly impressive NBA player. It happens...

[ZzAzZ]

As I stated before, Elton's blocks per minute decreased. He's just an overpaid disappointment who is producing less while out on the floor. Elton has to be the only veteran NBA player that I've ever seen where some members of the fan base hold out hope that he can be the player he was 4 seasons prior. People have come to the realization that the ship has sailed with Shaq and Iverson. But for some reason Brand has a group of supporters that are still hanging on to his past greatest as if it will resurface 4 seasons later. Most people do not feel that way, but there are some who turn a blind eye to his downward production trend. Brand is just another washed up formerly impressive NBA player. It happens...

How many people really think Brand is going to have another 20/10 season?

[tk76]

Bebop, I admire your optimism. Its not completely unfounded, but I just am unable to share in it. I hope Brand validates your hope and proves me wrong. I don't think it is for lack of effort.

Again, I really don't focus on numbers (like 16/8.) I need to see him being an above average player while he is on the floor. If he can't give that, then they should find someone else who can and use Brand as a back-up, where I know he is effective.

[Bring Back 1983]

How many people really think Brand is going to have another 20/10 season?

I think somebody said this before, but if Elton has a 20/10 season, we are going to have one long year ahead of us. We're just not built around having him be a centerpiece anymore. My original point was (and still is) Brand is still a contributing player, but given that he is too short too play the 5 and has lost signiifcant athleticism to play with a number of today's 4s, there are large limits as to what he can do out there. I just think that a number of us sided with Brand in his quasi-feud with Jordan last year (for good reason), but that doesn't mean Jordan was 100% wrong about everything.

I think Collins knows Brand's limits. When he talks about getting Brand to "feel good about playing basketball again", I really thinks he wants Elton to get comfortable with a new role given his physical limitations. McDyess did a great job of recreating himself, but he also was differently physically than Brand. Long story short, this will be a touchy issue but I hope they let Collins manage the players without looking at their cap numbers.

[radrmd216]

I think there is too much hope and not enough objectivity, and not just in this Brand discussion.

It sounds like people aren't worried about how or when the Sixers can realistically get a very good big. Also some make it sound like competing for a title is inevitable. Unless the Sixers get a high lottery pick (great player or great tradable asset) or pull off a ridiculously lopsided trade they will not compete for a title.

The way the NBA is set up the Sixers will not compete for a title by winning 55-50 the next several seasons. Something needs to happen because hoping things go best case scenario and fall into place isn't realistic.

Edit: by winning 45-50 games person.

[ChuckS]

As I stated before, Elton's blocks per minute decreased. He's just an overpaid disappointment who is producing less while out on the floor. Elton has to be the only veteran NBA player that I've ever seen where some members of the fan base hold out hope that he can be the player he was 4 seasons prior.

I'll admit that it is only from personal observation, but I did not see the degree of physical deterioration in Brand's game that some are so certain renders him forever useless to us. Conversely, I admittedly do not know at what level Elton can perform in the future. I generally leave such things to those among us gifted enough to foretell greatness from watching clips of high school or college play. I feel they can best also predict future failure and decline. I need to see more than many.

I must also acknowledge that, unlike some, I do not rate blocks from the four position as all determinant of total value. If I did, however, I probably would be less concerned with Elton's one per 30 minutes than I would be about our current alternatives. Thad, Marreese, and Jason, collectively, averaged 1.3 blocks per game in sixty minutes/per.

I try not to totally eschew numbers. I was encouraged that at his career worst, Brand improved our positional PER for the four to the highest of our teams positions. Derek once pointed out that that was somewhat offset by a negative own/opponent differential for the position. But consider that Brand's +/- differential was -0.4, Young's -4.0, Speights' -6.0, and Smith's -13.3, and think how much we should fault Elton.

Also, Elton had the best on court/off court differential, +6, of everyone but Elson's infinitesimal sample. Thad had a +1.5, Jason a +0.1, and Marreerse -7.1.

But I fault no one, and think there could be some plausibility, for fearing Elton is on some slippery slope because of age and injuries. The worry about him, however, makes little sense to me when I look at our alternatives at the four. Elton looks to be here to stay. I prefer to consider more possible solutions for improvement.

Maybe it will waste another year, but I'd like to see a prototypical power forward inside the three point line, and within a real defensive system, for a season, before I join the wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth.

I ultimately make my determinations by observing and trusting my gut, so I apologize for using these numbers for about the third time on this subject. Because there is so much concern, I'm just trying to look at the possibilities in a less subjective manner.