How many wins do you expect from the Miami Heat this year?

[dennis00]

I vote for 61-65 as I have lots of faith in our next season and except us and the Lakers to be the teams to beat. Celtics, Magic are not as good as us.

I do feel we have a slight weakness in PG and C, but no team is perfect. Lakers, Magic, Cleveland all won about 60 last year, I think we will do a little better.

[Miamis3rdRing]

73-9.

That record-beating 73rd win will either come IN Chicago, or against Charlotte in front of MJ.

I voted 61-65. It would be nice for us to get homecourt advantage throughout the playoff's.

[Flashpoint]

High 60s. Breaking 70 would be pretty great though.

I love the conversations we get to have as a fanbase now.

[mopper8]

Let's compare our Miami Heat to last year's 61-win Cavs (with a little cross-matching just to illustrate

Shaq/Z vs Joel/Z --- Shaq has some advantages over Joel defensively in terms of post defense, but Joel has some advantages in mobility, shot-blocking, and durability. Shaq's offensive advantages, though, win out. Medium Advantage Cavs

Vareajo/(Hickson or Jamison) vs Bosh/Haslem --- Hickson's minutes when Shaq and Jamison were both healthy were basically non-existent, so the comparison isn't with all 3, but rather Vareajo + one or the other. Either way, Bosh/Haslem is obviously superior, by a sizable margin, given the fact that there is very little room between Vareajo and Haslem, and there is obviously a lot of difference between Bosh and either/both of Hickson/Jamison

Lebron/Moon vs Lebron/Mike Miller --- Miller > Moon. Easy enough.

Mo Williams/Delonte West vs Dwyane Wade/James Jones --- Wade and Mo are the lead scoring guards, so it makes sense to match them up. Jones and West are both defensive-minded shooters backing up the 2. Huge advantage for the Heat.

Anthony Parker/Boobie Gibson vs Mario Chalmers/(Arroyo or J-Will) --- Role plaing complimentary guards. Gibson's 3pt shooting and Parker's defense are big advantages. That being said, if Chalmers can shoot like he did his rookie season, J-Will and Arroyo can both run an offense better than guard on the Cavs roster. Medium advantage to the Cavs

Unless you think Shaq and Anthony Parker are that much better than Joel and Mario Chalmers, I think it's pretty obvious that we're a far superior team based on an enormous advantage in backcourt scoring and playmaking and athleticism and scoring at the PF spot. And the Cavs won 61 games. I voted 61-65 though because if we are well out in front of the pack I imagine we'll sit starters at the end of the season

[Heat3]

We're going to smash the record and wipe our behinds with it. Expect Wade to come out as motivated as he did in 2008-09. He'll have his teammates fired up. Too many people calling them out. Putting them down. They will make a statement. A big F U to the league.

[Diggity Dave]

83

[I Never Lied]

IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHEN WE CLINCH HOME COURT ADVANTAGE THROUGH OUT THE PLAYOFFS.

60-65 wins

After that the holy trinity shall rest for the postseason.

[vincent]

98 wins includng the playoffs...

[mopper8]

IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHEN WE CLINCH HOME COURT ADVANTAGE THROUGH OUT THE PLAYOFFS.

60-65 wins

After that the holy trinity shall rest for the postseason.

I'm glad someone else is calling them the holy trinity.

[jmbflame21]

I really think this team is going to be hard to beat. I vote 71+

[Flash4thewin]

To be honest i could care less how many wins they have in the regular season, its all about the playoffs and specifically championships with this roster.

[nbhadja]

If we want to we can break the 72 win mark. The big 3 may sit the last few regular season games though.
Even with that we might still break the record since our team is just so good.

[TheTriforce]

Voted 61-65 to be conservative. I could see them winning more or less 70 easily if everything works smoothly from day1 and we stay injury free.

This will be our norm for the next 5-6 years to hover around 65-70 wins after that.

[DeeDub]

I think 68, although I wouldn't be surprised if it is 70+. First, I think this team will thrive on all the hate and the doubters. Aside from the collection of talent, this is really the players' team. This team was build from scratch with significant input by the Big 3. These guys have had their buddies and their buddies' buddies brought in. They have a huge vested interest in this team's success in a way few players have ever had.

To beat this team, opponents will probably have to accomplish each of the following:

1. Shut down 2 of the Big 3 from the field. By shut down, I mean hold to under 40% shooting (or so) from the field. They will have to stop two of the 3 because the third guy (whoever that is in a given game) is easily capable of going off for 40+ points. Last year, as the clear focal point of his team's offense, LeBron was shut down 9 times in 76 games (11.8%). Wade, as the clear focal point of his team's offense, was held under 40% shooting 16 times in 77 games (20.8%). Bosh, as the clear focal point of his team's offense, was held under 40% shooting 9 times in 70 games (12.8%). Since none will be the clear focal point of this team's offense, it will be even harder for teams to keep any of them under 40% from the field. But even using last year's numbers on different teams, the likelihood of holding 2 of them under 40% shooting is less than 3% (.208 x .128 = .027).

2. Keep the Big 3 off the foul line. All 3 are among the best in the league at getting to the foul line. They averaged a combined 27.7 free throw attempts per game last year. Even if a team is able to keep two of them under 40% shooting, which is pretty unlikely, that team better be able to do it without putting them on the line. That is not an easy task.

3. Prevent Heat from hitting 3s. If an opposing team is able to calmp down on the Big 3, they'll have to be able to do it without giving up wide open 3s. Miller and James Jones are both capable of hitting 3s at a 45+% clip. Chalmers can hit the open 3, as can Ilgauskas and Bosh.

4. Shoot Better than .500 from the field. Last year's Heat team had the 2nd best opponent FG% allowed in the NBA at .439, just .001 away from top ranked Orlando. This team should be at least as good, if not better. LeBron is an elite defender. Bosh is a capable team defender. We will see fewer minutes from Arroyo (if any). With much less offensive burden to carry, I expect even better defense from Wade and LeBron this year. Last year, the Heat allowed its opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field 17 times (losing 13 of those). So if the Heat's defense this year is comparable to last year's team, an opponent will have roughly a 20% chance of shooting 50% or better.

5. Score More Than 100 Points. Last year's Heat team gave up 100 points or more 29 times in 82 games (35%). They lost 20 of those games. When that team held the opponent to under 100 points, it was 38-15 (71.6%). Projected over 82 games, that comes out to 59 wins. And that was a team with a minuscule fraction of the offensive firepower this year's team will have. This team will presumably play at a much faster pace, but I still expect it to be a very good defensive team. It will be very, very hard for an opposing team to beat this team scoring fewer than 100 points.

In short, opposing teams will have to accomplish a bunch of difficult things in order to beat this team. There will be let downs from time to time and opponents will get up to play this team, but a 68 win season means this team lost 14 out of 82 games, or roughly one out of every 6 games. Since I expect this team to have a real home court advantage (unlike the last few years) playing in a loud sold out arena, all but a few of those losses will have to come on the road. It's hard to see this team (if it is close to as good as I expect) losing one out of every 4 games on the road.

[Marc]

Let's compare our Miami Heat to last year's 61-win Cavs (with a little cross-matching just to illustrate

Shaq/Z vs Joel/Z --- Shaq has some advantages over Joel defensively in terms of post defense, but Joel has some advantages in mobility, shot-blocking, and durability. Shaq's offensive advantages, though, win out. Medium Advantage Cavs

Vareajo/(Hickson or Jamison) vs Bosh/Haslem --- Hickson's minutes when Shaq and Jamison were both healthy were basically non-existent, so the comparison isn't with all 3, but rather Vareajo + one or the other. Either way, Bosh/Haslem is obviously superior, by a sizable margin, given the fact that there is very little room between Vareajo and Haslem, and there is obviously a lot of difference between Bosh and either/both of Hickson/Jamison

Lebron/Moon vs Lebron/Mike Miller --- Miller > Moon. Easy enough.

Mo Williams/Delonte West vs Dwyane Wade/James Jones --- Wade and Mo are the lead scoring guards, so it makes sense to match them up. Jones and West are both defensive-minded shooters backing up the 2. Huge advantage for the Heat.

Anthony Parker/Boobie Gibson vs Mario Chalmers/(Arroyo or J-Will) --- Role plaing complimentary guards. Gibson's 3pt shooting and Parker's defense are big advantages. That being said, if Chalmers can shoot like he did his rookie season, J-Will and Arroyo can both run an offense better than guard on the Cavs roster. Medium advantage to the Cavs

Unless you think Shaq and Anthony Parker are that much better than Joel and Mario Chalmers, I think it's pretty obvious that we're a far superior team based on an enormous advantage in backcourt scoring and playmaking and athleticism and scoring at the PF spot. And the Cavs won 61 games. I voted 61-65 though because if we are well out in front of the pack I imagine we'll sit starters at the end of the season

What about the coach? I think Spoelstra is not ready for the big 3. At least, not right now. He might be in the future but i could see Heat losing some games this season because of Spo not being up to the situation.

[Chosen01]

Yea the thing about this team is that even if SOMEHOW the opposing team was able to shut down TWO of the big three. The last one is capable of scoring 35 on any given night, because all 3 are used to anchoring offenses.

This SHOULD play much higher paced this year, theres no way we shouldn't. Wade and LeBron on the open court are just too unstoppable.

I like it when opposing fans say since we have no LEGIT center that it will be a big problem like that they can just dump to that Center and they'll score 100 points on the heat. It doesn't work like that,Dwight Howard isn't prime shaq. If Prime Shaq were still in the league then I would be confident and say he would give this heat ALOT of trouble. But the thing is I expect the heat when facing Orlando to continue to drive and get Dwight in foul trouble.Wade has done by himself several times, Bosh has done it(40pt 18rb game against them) and LeBron has also done it numerous amount of times.

That said I see the heat winning 66-68 wins. But I wouldn't be surprised if they win 70+ wins TBH.

[MartyConlonJr]

I honestly can't see 12 losses this season. Lebron got 66 wins on his own.

Further to that Cleveland comparison posted above - tell me this:

Which PF combo in the league is better than Bosh/Haslem (with LeBron able to play minutes 3rd string)? Pau/Odom? Nowitzki/Marion, Duncan/Mcdyess/Blair?

What SF combo is better than LeBron/Miller? Carmelo/Harrington, Pierce/?, Durant/Green?

What SG combo is better than Wade/Miller? Kobe/Vujacic? Johnson/Crawford?

That is 3 positions that we should win every night, starters and bench.

How many games did LeBrons teammates in Cleveland win 2 or more of their matchups? very few I'd guess. Miami will do that every game.

[mopper8]

Something Lebron doesn't get credit for IMO is also that his teams haven't taken the regular season lightly. The Cavs went 35-6 at home last year, and 33-4 vs teams below .500

They went 39-2 at home and 37-4 vs below.500 teams in 08-09. If there is one thing he (and the Cavs) did well the past two years, it was bring defense and effort every night. Wade and MIami haven't been as great at home, but they went 28-12 vs teams below .500 in 08-09 even though they weren't particularly talented, and went 30-8 on 09-10 in same situations.

Bulls lost to a pretty awful Toronto team in their 72-win season, which goes to show that you can lose to any team on any given night. That being said, there is no reason this team should ever lose to a below .500 team. If a far less-talented Cavs team can average only 4 losses/season against below-.500 teams that past two years, then we have no excuse to lose even 3 of those games IMO. That should be 35-40 wins banked right there. You do that, you barely need to be above .500 vs winning teams to hit 60 wins.

[mopper8]

I honestly can't see 12 losses this season. Lebron got 66 wins on his own.

Further to that Cleveland comparison posted above - tell me this:

Which PF combo in the league is better than Bosh/Haslem (with LeBron able to play minutes 3rd string)? Pau/Odom? Nowitzki/Marion, Duncan/Mcdyess/Blair?

What SF combo is better than LeBron/Miller? Carmelo/Harrington, Pierce/?, Durant/Green?

What SG combo is better than Wade/Miller? Kobe/Vujacic? Johnson/Crawford?

That is 3 positions that we should win every night, starters and bench.

How many games did LeBrons teammates in Cleveland win 2 or more of their matchups? very few I'd guess. Miami will do that every game.

The bolded teams we only play 10 times (in total) all season. Worth pointing out.

As for Spoelstra...he's certainly better than Mike Brown, that much I know for sure

[Teddy Bruckshut]

Around 65-69'ish, but with a mid level addition or two we can really threaten the record in '11 or '12