Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

[fishercob]

Gil's value won't skyrocket despite how well he plays. A GM will have in mind the gun incident, his injury history, his salary and his lack of defense. He will not net us a lottery pick (or two, or three) -- which is what tanking would give us. Besides, he's a guard. So, a GM has to think of trading big for small. With lottery picks, we can take a top center.

hi barely. I need another one of your jazz mixes this weekend. Preferably with some Monk in it. Maybe some Ramsey Lewis.

Other GM's will absolutely pay more for Gil after a season of high performance than now. Hell, look at CHarlotte. Best defensive team in the league last year, but only 24th in offense. Serious void in the backcourt.

If Gil comes out and lights it up this year, Charlotte would be crazy to not trade some shorter term contracts and a couple of firsts for Gil. Or Milwaukee who was 2nd in D and 23rd and O -- they can trade Mike Redd and a couple of firsts at the deadline. The Bulls, Mavs, or Blazers could all decide that Gil is a lethal 2 that puts them in contention and put together good packages for him.

It would have to be the right situation, but there's no reason to believe the right situation won't be there at the deadline. Suitors will emerge. Let the market come to us.

[fishercob]

Of course there's a path to a championship with Gil. This whole path to a championship thing is bs. The odds are slightly better with Arenas than without. Without Arenas we need two major pieces (elite rebounder and big time scorer) and some complementary pieces (including long range shooter). With Arenas we need one major piece (elite rebounder) and some complementary pieces.

Regardless of what is done with Arenas we have a 3 year window to get into the contender conversation before Wall needs an extension. Next year's draft is gonna suck, a lockout will likely occur and a new CBA will change the rules.

Acquiring those missing pieces requires a lot of luck, whether it be the flight of a ping pong ball, a financially strapped franchise or a disgruntled superstar. Considering our ping pong ball luck and the impact wall will have and a top3 pick is certainly not guaranteed or even likely. As for trades, more than just cap room is required. Teams have to tell their fans that they got something and a rehabilitated arenas (two years closer to expiring) is our best chip. When hinrich goes we wont have any cap issues (except maybe a blatche extension if he isnt traded) before a potential wall extension. our window for making the move that can give us another major piece is in 2 years.

Taking a major step back by trading arenas for nothing (and id actually consider a disgruntled carter to be an additional negative in the locker room) today means we're looking at a five year plan for joining the conversation instead of a 3 year plan. A lot can happen in five years and i dont think the main people involved (wall and the fans) are willing to wait that long. the idea of self sabotaging today for extra powerball tickets (when it's not even a mega millions jackpot) is a major major gamble that's being improperly portrayed as the smart move. if you're gonna call for that type of gamble there needs to be some disclosure of the downsides.


ps: i dont think our growth is even improved by dumping gil. nick young is not a building piece. he is what he is, a streaky gunner who might become a decent complementary piece and nothing more. he is not a long term building block.

[nate33]

We do not have the assets to build a championship team. Period. One way to increase our asset base is to allow some of our existing assets to appreciate in value so that they can he cashed in for better assets then they'd fetch now.

nate keeps saying that it's all about 2012. if that's the case, then how does keeping Gil on our cap this year hurt our long term ambitions? We have plenty of time to trade him, clear room for 2012 and get actual picks in return.

We have to build our asset base. Selling low on Gilbert is the exact wrong way to do it.

If Arenas for Vince Carter (or another similar expiring contract) is on the table, then we are not "selling low". If such an offer is on the table, the other team must already be in agreement with us that Arenas true value is indeed much higher than his Arenas is a Gun-Toting Cancer value.

I just don't consider it likely at all that Arenas will ever be worth more than an expiring contract. If we keep him, the best he'll do is maintain that value while giving us some additional highlights and wins in what is effectively a meaningless season. And the worst-case scenario is that he gets hurt or fails at SG and torpedos his value.

[JonathanJoseph]

Get your expectations up.

When Derrick Rose was a rookie, Rose/Ben Gordon/John Salmons/Luol Deng was 41-41. The current Wiz roster is at least that good and maybe much better.

[fishercob]

I love this thread.

[JonathanJoseph]

We do not have the assets to build a championship team. Period. One way to increase our asset base is to allow some of our existing assets to appreciate in value so that they can he cashed in for better assets then they'd fetch now.

nate keeps saying that it's all about 2012. if that's the case, then how does keeping Gil on our cap this year hurt our long term ambitions? We have plenty of time to trade him, clear room for 2012 and get actual picks in return.

We have to build our asset base. Selling low on Gilbert is the exact wrong way to do it.

If Arenas for Vince Carter (or another similar expiring contract) is on the table, then we are not "selling low". If such an offer is on the table, the other team must already be in agreement with us that Arenas true value is indeed much higher than his Arenas is a Gun-Toting Cancer value.

I just don't consider it likely at all that Arenas will ever be worth more than an expiring contract. If we keep him, the best he'll do is maintain that value while giving us some additional highlights and wins in what is effectively a meaningless season. And the worst-case scenario is that he gets hurt or fails at SG and torpedos his value.

Trading a guy who has been All-NBA for an expiring contract is most definitely selling low.

[barelyawake]

Bannd, all I can say in response is IMO you are severly overrating two things:

1) A rehabbed Gil's value.
2) Our frontcourt, if you believe we are only a rebounder away from competing with the megateams being assembled. This is exactly why I have been fighting the "don't overrate Blatche" argument all Summer. You guys are banking on Blatche being this Allstar player. Don't. I'd rather not revisit this argument for a fifth time.

So, we have two plans thus far. One, luring Gasol away from Kobe. That isn't happening. The other plan, adding Melo. Wall/arenas/melo/Blatche/McGee will not win a championship. Mostly because of defense and lack of rebounding. Now, how do you get that elite, defensive center? You have no cap and no picks.

Btw, Melo isn't coming here because I have heard friends say he doesn't want to be around his old gang with all his money. That and he's creating a superteam in ny.

[nate33]

Trading a guy who has been All-NBA for an expiring contract is most definitely selling low.

If you think Arenas still has "All-NBA" trade value, then I don't see the point in carrying on this conversation.

Using your logic, I can simply counter by saying we'd be acquiring an All-NBA talent (Vince Carter) in return.

[fishercob]

Get your expectations up.

When Derrick Rose was a rookie, Rose/Ben Gordon/John Salmons/Luol Deng was 41-41. The current Wiz roster is at least that good and maybe much better.

They started with Gooden and Nocioni who they traded for Salmons and Brad Miller.

Rose/Gordon/Deng/Salmons/Noah/Miller/Ty Thomas in an Easten Conference that had all of five teams over .500 is far better than Wall/Arenas/Hinrich/Blatche/McGee/Thornton in an East that will have no less than 7. We're going to suck, and it's Ohhh....kaaaaaaaay.

[pcbothwel]

Some of you guys are absolutley hilarious on this matter. You are over thinking the problem to an extreme extent. Gil (barring injury) will see a small decline in his assist numbers but his rebounding and scoring will stay about the same. More importantly, he will most likely be more efficient and he has the uncanny ability (like jordan, kobe, etc.) to absolutely rip an opposing teams heart out.
After this year, a 29 y/o Gil with 3/60 left on his contract can be in play.
Remember, Gil is not holding us back financially as much as his contract would indicate. We are still in play for Max cap space next year if need be.
And what the hell is with this "Gil's gonna cost us draft slots". so instead of getting Gordan Heyward, Aminu, or Expe Udoh...we get Patrick Patterson, Ed Davis, or Cole Aldrich.
WE GOT JOHN WALL. He will be our building block. Gathering picks, much like the Blazers, should be our goal...Were we differ is if we package the young guys, capspace, future picks for the next piece.
I understand If some on this board do not think EG is capable of carrying this out, but that is no reason to deviate.

[gesa2]

Get your expectations up.

When Derrick Rose was a rookie, Rose/Ben Gordon/John Salmons/Luol Deng was 41-41. The current Wiz roster is at least that good and maybe much better.

They started with Gooden and Nocioni who they traded for Salmons and Brad Miller.

Rose/Gordon/Deng/Salmons/Noah/Miller/Ty Thomas in an Easten Conference that had all of five teams over .500 is far better than Wall/Arenas/Hinrich/Blatche/McGee/Thornton in an East that will have no less than 7. We're going to suck, and it's Ohhh....kaaaaaaaay.

This, I agree with. But we won't suck for Gil's entire contract. We'll suck with him, be at the back half of the lottery, then pick up pieces to be good the next year. Gil will be good for a good team before he's too old.

[JonathanJoseph]

Trading a guy who has been All-NBA for an expiring contract is most definitely selling low.

If you think Arenas still has "All-NBA" trade value, then I don't see the point in carrying on this conversation.

Using your logic, I can simply counter by saying we'd be acquiring an All-NBA talent (Vince Carter) in return.

No I don't think that at all. but he has been and may, or may not, be again. So trading him at his lowest value makes no sense. Even if there was a logical reason to do so....which there isn't.

[fishercob]

Get your expectations up.

When Derrick Rose was a rookie, Rose/Ben Gordon/John Salmons/Luol Deng was 41-41. The current Wiz roster is at least that good and maybe much better.

They started with Gooden and Nocioni who they traded for Salmons and Brad Miller.

Rose/Gordon/Deng/Salmons/Noah/Miller/Ty Thomas in an Easten Conference that had all of five teams over .500 is far better than Wall/Arenas/Hinrich/Blatche/McGee/Thornton in an East that will have no less than 7. We're going to suck, and it's Ohhh....kaaaaaaaay.

This, I agree with. But we won't suck for Gil's entire contract. We'll suck with him, be at the back half of the lottery, then pick up pieces to be good the next year. Gil will be good for a good team before he's too old.

I'm with you gesa. This team is going to get a lot better in the next few years.

[barelyawake]

Hey Fish,

I'll be in LA for the weekend, but I'll certainly throw another Jazz mix up soon. Actually, there's a few new albums I've been meaning to throw in that thread too (as well as some new to me old bands).

As far as Arenas goes, I just don't think we'll get anything near the value that we would get by tanking. If we get a first out of someone, which I simply do not think would ever happen, it would be heavily protected.

[no D in Hibachi]

We do not have the assets to build a championship team. Period. One way to increase our asset base is to allow some of our existing assets to appreciate in value so that they can he cashed in for better assets then they'd fetch now.

nate keeps saying that it's all about 2012. if that's the case, then how does keeping Gil on our cap this year hurt our long term ambitions? We have plenty of time to trade him, clear room for 2012 and get actual picks in return.

We have to build our asset base. Selling low on Gilbert is the exact wrong way to do it.

If Arenas for Vince Carter (or another similar expiring contract) is on the table, then we are not "selling low". If such an offer is on the table, the other team must already be in agreement with us that Arenas true value is indeed much higher than his Arenas is a Gun-Toting Cancer value.

I just don't consider it likely at all that Arenas will ever be worth more than an expiring contract. If we keep him, the best he'll do is maintain that value while giving us some additional highlights and wins in what is effectively a meaningless season. And the worst-case scenario is that he gets hurt or fails at SG and torpedos his value.

Trading a guy who has been All-NBA for an expiring contract is most definitely selling low.

In all fairness VC was an All-NBA player as well. Just much longer ago

[JonathanJoseph]

Get your expectations up.

When Derrick Rose was a rookie, Rose/Ben Gordon/John Salmons/Luol Deng was 41-41. The current Wiz roster is at least that good and maybe much better.

They started with Gooden and Nocioni who they traded for Salmons and Brad Miller.

Rose/Gordon/Deng/Salmons/Noah/Miller/Ty Thomas in an Easten Conference that had all of five teams over .500 is far better than Wall/Arenas/Hinrich/Blatche/McGee/Thornton in an East that will have no less than 7. We're going to suck, and it's Ohhh....kaaaaaaaay.

I'm not trying to live in denial, I just don't see what you see.

Joakim Noah was in his 2nd year averaging about 7/8, which is well behind what McGee was averaging at the end of last season (and Noah still has not been invited to the Team USA camp even with a lack of big men). Let's call that one a wash.

Ty Thomas? 11 pts/5 rebs. Blatche this season will be far, far better but let's call that one a wash too.

Rose/Gordon/Deng/Salmons seems pretty comparable to Wall/Hinrich/Young/Thornton.

So the difference is Brad Miller? Who I actually like, BTW.

I don't understand what you see that says that the Wiz will be AT LEAST 10 games worse than that team since that seems to be your ballpark. I still see those teams as being even and that's without Arenas.

[fishercob]

Hey Fish,

I'll be in LA for the weekend, but I'll certainly throw another Jazz mix up soon. Actually, there's a few new albums I've been meaning to throw in that thread too (as well as some new to me old bands).

As far as Arenas goes, I just don't think we'll get anything near the value that we would get by tanking. If we get a first out of someone, which I simply do not think would ever happen, it would be heavily protected.

Have no fear! With Gil in tow, we're going to have 6-8th most lotto balls or so. Ted's going to bring Irene Pollin to Secaucus next summer and we're going to pick 3rd next year without trading Gil .

There's gonna be a lockout and when it's over, we're going to have the option of buying out Gil and wiping him off our cap. That's a huge check, but if Ted believes it's thr right move to build a champion, he and his partners will bite the bullet. Or someone is going to come along in need of a big scorer and offer us a Ray Allen type trade for Gil.

It's all good, barely. We have the right man in charge.

[Bickerstaff]

A lot of teams are built to win now but lack the firepower to keep up with the Lakers and Heat. If Gilbert can prove he's still a top player, you don't think he'll be worth far more to Orlando than merely Vince Carter? At some point, they'll need to get rid of his contract, but there's no need to do it now.

[leswizards]

A few problems with your analogy: GA is not some run-of-the-mill "programmer." He's an all-star talent in a field where that kind of talent is hard to come by. Also, GA was starting to play very well in the last 5-6 games he played before getting suspended. So saying that "he looked a shell of his former self" may apply to your programmer but not to Arenas. Finally, programmers don't play out there careers in public in front of cash-paying fans---many of whom recognize that people make stupid mistakes, yet are willing to give them a second chance.

First, it wasn't my analogy, it was someone else's and I was merely trying to show how unrealistic their analogy was. Second, Gil has not been an all star talent for 3 seasons. Third, Gil played 47 games the past 3 seasons, and in the vast majority of those games, he looked to be a shell of his former self.

[fishercob]

Get your expectations up.

When Derrick Rose was a rookie, Rose/Ben Gordon/John Salmons/Luol Deng was 41-41. The current Wiz roster is at least that good and maybe much better.

They started with Gooden and Nocioni who they traded for Salmons and Brad Miller.

Rose/Gordon/Deng/Salmons/Noah/Miller/Ty Thomas in an Easten Conference that had all of five teams over .500 is far better than Wall/Arenas/Hinrich/Blatche/McGee/Thornton in an East that will have no less than 7. We're going to suck, and it's Ohhh....kaaaaaaaay.

I'm not trying to live in denial, I just don't see what you see.

Joakim Noah was in his 2nd year averaging about 7/8, which is well behind what McGee was averaging at the end of last season (and Noah still has not been invited to the Team USA camp even with a lack of big men). Let's call that one a wash.

Ty Thomas? 11 pts/5 rebs. Blatche this season will be far, far better but let's call that one a wash too.

Rose/Gordon/Deng/Salmons seems pretty comparable to Wall/Hinrich/Young/Thornton.

So the difference is Brad Miller? Who I actually like, BTW.

I don't understand what you see that says that the Wiz will be AT LEAST 10 games worse than that team since that seems to be your ballpark. I still see those teams as being even and that's without Arenas.

I think around ten games worse is right, maybe 8. 33 wins seems reasonable.

They BUlls were 18th in offense and 14th in defense against a weak conference. Wiz were 25th in offense and 18th in D last year for 26 wins. We might improve on those numbers, but given our lack of depth at all three frontcourt positions, we may not improve much. Plus, we'll essentially be playing a tougher schedule due to the East being better.

As an aside, I'm surprised and frankly a little impressed that Flip coaxed the 18th best D in the NBA with the players he had last year. The previous 4 years were 29th, 24th, 28th and 21st. We're going to miss Haywood a ton though.