Should Jays Trade Bautista?

[neddamb]

With this type of season and once again the bluejays on the outside looking in should we load up on prospects by trading a very tradable contract like bautista's? Maybe with Wells having a decent year we can get rid of his handcuffs on our team too?

[Kaizen]

http://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal

Add #Indians' Peralta to #Yankees' potential bench options. #Marlins' Helms also in mix. Prices on Bautista, Wigginton too high. #MLB

[MGD24]

yes

[Peteros]

yes

[Randle McMurphy]

Sure, if the price is right. I think he's still going to have a lot of value going forward, but it's hard to see this not being his peak right now. This isn't a case where the Jays HAVE to trade him, though.

Vernon isn't going anywhere, not unless a team loses its collective mind.

[evilRyu]

i'd hate to do it, but yeah.. i mean, how do you sell to the casual fan that you just dealt the league leader in HR's for prospects..

[Graham's Cracker]

I agree EVILRYU. The casual fans will be turned off by the move. However, a team built for the casual fans is not a team that survives the AL east.

The Jays need to build a winner and then the casual fans will claim they were never casual in the first place.

Personally, I think the JBau situation is interesting. If he can't manage to pull out some nice prospects for him, retaining him for another year isn't the worst thing. He is at his peak value right now, but on the other hand, he offers so much versatility that he would definitely be an asset moving forward next year. The only thing that scares me is him getting a large raise in arbitration and negatively affecting his trade value next year.

It's hard to gauge his value right now. He is the home run leader, but their are also so many people saying "he'll come back to earth". Tough to say what GM's think.

[trellaine201]

If he stays with the Jays then goes to arbritration is it a ONE year salary? If so, Jays could suck up the big contract for a year then let him walk.

Ooops this is barring the Jays from getting a good player(s) in a trade in my opinion.

[Randle McMurphy]

It would surprise me if other teams gave in to Anthopoulos' high asking price for him.

But then again, Brian Sabean is reportedly interested.

[Peteros]

Yep one year. Could be anywhere from 10-12 million.

[evilRyu]

I agree EVILRYU. The casual fans will be turned off by the move. However, a team built for the casual fans is not a team that survives the AL east.

The Jays need to build a winner and then the casual fans will claim they were never casual in the first place.

Personally, I think the JBau situation is interesting. If he can't manage to pull out some nice prospects for him, retaining him for another year isn't the worst thing. He is at his peak value right now, but on the other hand, he offers so much versatility that he would definitely be an asset moving forward next year. The only thing that scares me is him getting a large raise in arbitration and negatively affecting his trade value next year.

It's hard to gauge his value right now. He is the home run leader, but their are also so many people saying "he'll come back to earth". Tough to say what GM's think.

good point.

However the attendance is low as it is, I'm sure they need to keep the fans (casual and diehard) interested for now.

But it seems like the time is now. Bautista has more chances of his stock dropping than increasing. Who knew what we were able to fetch with A-Gon? It'll be a big PR hit, but it may be best to do it

[Randle McMurphy]

Major league HR leader Jose Bautista drawing serious trade interest. Teams that have inquired include Giants, Tigers, White Sox, Braves.
# One reason Blue Jays' demands are high: Jose Bautista's salary next season, after arbitration raise, will be in $5M-$6M range. Cheap power.

And because nothing is ever complete without Keith Law's cynical commentary:

keithlaw

Career .238/.329/.400 hitter before 2010. #bestofluck RT @JeffPassan Major league HR leader Jose Bautista drawing serious trade interest.

[Avenger]

Yep one year. Could be anywhere from 10-12 million.

In arbitration? He'll get nothing close to 10-12 million, that's like a 500% increase from his previous salary and something like that has never happened before in arbitration. If everything goes right for him, he'll probably have to settle for 7-8 million even with this monstrous year he's having, he's better off signing a long term contract.

[Schad]

It would surprise me if other teams gave in to Anthopoulos' high asking price for him.

But then again, Brian Sabean is reportedly interested.

Welcome to Toronto, Madison Bumgarner.

[Avenger]

Jose Bautista + Jason Frasor (salary paid) for Madison Bumgarner?
would be a pretty fair trade and might even be a win for the Giants if Bautista keeps this up next year and doesn't get more than 8 million in arbitration. If this is a flash in the pan career year and he falls back to his 2009(which was still pretty good, starter level) year, it'll be a win for us.

Some rough math in my head says we could be sending out between 8-17 million(depending on the kind of year Bautista has next year and how much he's getting paid in arbitration) in value and getting back about 15 million which is what a top 10 pitching prospect is worth

[Geddy]

It would surprise me if other teams gave in to Anthopoulos' high asking price for him.

But then again, Brian Sabean is reportedly interested.

Welcome to Toronto, Madison Bumgarner.

damn i saw that name on the weekend and was waiting to use it in a post or thread. Didn't realize there was any interest in him. With that name he will be on the jays for sure.

[Schad]

Jose Bautista + Jason Frasor (salary paid) for Madison Bumgarner?
would be a pretty fair trade and might even be a win for the Giants if Bautista keeps this up next year and doesn't get more than 8 million in arbitration. If this is a flash in the pan career year and he falls back to his 2009(which was still pretty good, starter level) year, it'll be a win for us.

Nah, that's still spectacularly bad for the Giants. Compared to other Brian Sabean gems, though, it's a downright steal.

[Avenger]

Jose Bautista + Jason Frasor (salary paid) for Madison Bumgarner?
would be a pretty fair trade and might even be a win for the Giants if Bautista keeps this up next year and doesn't get more than 8 million in arbitration. If this is a flash in the pan career year and he falls back to his 2009(which was still pretty good, starter level) year, it'll be a win for us.

Nah, that's still spectacularly bad for the Giants. Compared to other Brian Sabean gems, though, it's a downright steal.

I'm only starting to learn to evaluate trade values in baseball but i don't think its "spectacularly bad" at all for the Giants.

Madison Bumgarner is a top 10 pitching prospect which is only worth around 15 million dollars, much lower than a top 10 hitting prospect(36.5 million) because of the flameout rate (and the everyday value you get from a position player) of pitchers.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7 ... mpensation

Jose Bautista is worth anywhere between 1.5 to 2.0 WAR for the rest of the season while making about 1.1 million. That provides a net value between 6.1 to 8.3 million for the rest of the season. Jason Frasor should be worth 0.5 WAR and if we paid his salary that's worth another 2 million in value. Bautista and Frasor should be worth 8-10.3 million this year alone, projecting Baustista's value next year is the tough part in this deal. He could make anywhere between 6 to 9 million in arbitration and provide anywhere between 2 to 5 WAR leaving us with a net value between 3.4 million(6 million salary, 2 WAR player) to 14.9 million(8 million salary, 5 WAR player). And if Jo-Bau has another great season next year, he could get you a draft pick in compensation if he leaves when he hits free agency.

Frasor and bautista could provide anywhere between 14 to 25 million in value for the Giants and it's only costing them Madison Bumgarner, even if Bautista has a down year and reverts back to the decent starting quality player he was in 2009, that's still a decent trade for the Giants and if he puts up another 900 OPS season next year it would be a steal for the Giants. There's a reason Alex is asking, he knows that the chances of Jose repeating this year make it worthwhile to keep him around and taking him to arbitration, even if Bautista goes back to being to his 2009 season(2 WAR), he'll easily be worth whatever he'll make in arbitration.

[Schad]

Jose Bautista is worth anywhere between 1.5 to 2.0 WAR for the rest of the season while making about 1.1 million. That provides a net value between 6.1 to 8.3 million for the rest of the season. Jason Frasor should be worth 0.5 WAR and if we paid his salary that's worth another 2 million in value. Bautista and Frasor should be worth 8-10.3 million this year alone, projecting Baustista's value next year is the tough part in this deal. He could make anywhere between 6 to 9 million in arbitration and provide anywhere between 2 to 5 WAR leaving us with a net value between 3.4 million(6 million salary, 2 WAR player) to 14.9 million(8 million salary, 5 WAR player). And if Jo-Bau has another great season next year, he could get you a draft pick in compensation if he leaves when he hits free agency.

But you also need to take into consideration the players that they're displacing. While many of them suck to varying degrees, all of the Giants' outfielders are above replacement level at the moment, which means that you have to discount the bonus a little. If he keeps up his current pace, absent all else, Bautista would add 1.7 WAR...take into consideration the players he replacing and it's probably close to 1.4. Tail off a bit (heh, though that's difficult in AT&T) of it might be close to 1.0.

As for Frasor; there are six guys having better seasons in their bullpen, so there's no way that he'd be getting those high-leverage moments, and consequently he might not add anything of significance.

Frasor and bautista could provide anywhere between 14 to 25 million in value for the Giants and it's only costing them Madison Bumgarner, even if Bautista has a down year and reverts back to the decent starting quality player he was in 2009, that's still a decent trade for the Giants and if he puts up another 900 OPS season next year it would be a steal for the Giants.

Bautista's form entering this year was below 2.0 WAR annually; like most relievers, Frasor falls between 0.5-1.5, and would be on the lower end of the scale in their excellent 'pen. Even a thoroughly average starter can put up 2.5-3.5 WAR a year...Ted Lilly did it four years running, and while pitching prospects do flame out with some regularity, Bumgarner has the potential to do much, much better: 4-5 WAR is hardly a stretch, and that's more than Bautista is putting up in his crazy, aberrant season.

But most importantly, Bumgarner is cost-controlled for quite some time, whereas the other two aren't. And while a sandwich pick or two is nice, it isn't a top pitching prospect.

[Hoopstarr]

Avenger, you are underestimating Bumgarner quite a bit. That bum is garnering quite a bit of attention and it's for much bigger names than Jose Bautista. SF could trade him in a package for Prince Fielder, or straight up for Corey Hart. I think we'd be lucky to get a couple top 100 prospects for Bautista.