Breakdown of the Jazz roster so far (long)

[babyjax13]

Alright, I did this last year and I wanted to do it again this year. Just like last time I am going to warn you that it is super long and boring, but there is (IMO) some good information in it if you dig hard enough. I have gone through tons of statistical data to write this breakdown, so hopefully it will give you an idea of what the Jazz will be like next year. While reading this keep in mind that the Jazz won 64.6% of their games last season.

——————————————–Point Guard———————————————-

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sHI0gwaEZs[/youtube]

Deron Williams 19p 4r 11a 1s
Ronnie Price 4p 2a 1s
Sundiata Gaines 3p 1r 1a

Deron proved this year that he is the best point guard in basketball mainly through the way he performed in the playoffs. As far as the regular season is concerned it was fairly normal for him as he averaged 19 and 11 again. One of the best things about his season though was that his three point percentage rose back above 37% again. This was a big part of the Jazz' success. In games where he shot 40% or better from three point range we were 22-7 (75.8% chance of winning) and we were 31-22 when he didn't (58.5% chance of winning). When Deron is shooting the ball better he also averages more assists (320 over 29 games = 11.03; 10.17 the rest of the year).

Deron also makes us better when he is a facilitator. In games where he gets 12 assists or more the Jazz are 29-11 (72.5% chance of winning) and 24-18 (57.14% chance of winning) when he doesn't - this includes games in which he doesn't play.

To say that Ronnie Price isn’t a good backup for Deron is completely untrue. He is the perfect Jerry Sloan player and he is a great defender that can wear down opposing guards. He can also play shooting guard with his tremendous athleticism - he is a versatile player. When Ronnie Price plays 11 or more minutes the Jazz are 25-12 (67.6% chance of winning) and 15-8 when he doesn’t (65.2% chance of winning). The record isn’t really that much different (2.4%) but over the 60 games he played he “created” 1.44 wins. But you have to take more into account as well. As a starter Price averaged 9 points and 6 assists in 31 minutes and was 2-2 (both losses being five points or less). Price is an energy player and when the Jazz play well he plays well (he shoots 44% in wins compared to 35% in losses and averages half a steal more per game). The Jazz were 40-20 when Price was available to play (66.7% win percentage) compared to 13-9 when he wasn't. Had the Jazz continued at that pace through the 22 game stretch he missed they would have finished with 55 wins and been the number 2 seed and matched up with San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs.

So we know that the Jazz play better when Price is available to play and that they are better when he shoots a high percentage – but just what is he doing that makes him play better in those games. Is it the amount of free throws he shoots? Steals? Three point shooting?

The answer is that when he is attacking the hole and active he makes the Jazz better. When Price has 2 or more free throws the Jazz are 14-7 (66.7% win percentage). When he has a steal the Jazz are 21-5 (80.7% win percentage) which to me suggests that his offense is not the main thing he brings to the table, it is his ability to frustrate opposing players. Had this trend continued in every game of the season the Jazz would theoretically have been 66-16. I really don’t think that the Jazz would really finish with that record when Price is playing good defense, but he is certainly a big part of the Jazz success when he plays.

Sundiata Gaines was a nice story in the middle of the season, but I think that the few games in which he played well have been blown out of proportion. I think that he has the potential to be a below average second string player or a very good third string player. Right now that is all the Jazz need, but do you wait for him to reach that potential? Right now his inexperience is glaringly obvious. In home games he does pretty well, averaging 4 points and 2 assists in 9 minutes. In road games he still hasn’t gained the confidence of the coaching staff. He is very turnover prone and not good at directing the offense. When he plays over 10 minutes he really doesn’t help the Jazz (they are 3-3 in that stretch) which points to the fact that he just isn’t ready to be a major part of any team (not that he ever will).

Our point guard position is certainly one of the better rotations in the NBA, if not the best. We will have to rely on Deron heavily throughout the year. I think that if he were to get injured Price would be good enough for us to go .500 at the worst without him, but then you have to worry about the guy behind him. Really it is a shame we didn’t take a chance on a guy like Jeremy Lin instead of letting Gaines come back.

——————————————–Shooting Guard———————————————-
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNXgLxe5ecI&feature=related[/youtube]

Raja Bell 12p 4r 2a
CJ Miles 14p 3r 3a

This is the position in which we will see the most change for the Jazz with CJ Miles playing most of his time here - and with the addition of Bell. With Brewer, Mathews and Korver gone as well it will be very interesting (and possibly frustrating) to see how this position works for us.

CJ Miles has progressed since last season, so much so that he has become what I believe is a legitimate starter. Last year this is what I said about him:

Here is where I am going to go off on a bit of a rant. CJ Miles is a crap player, he is too young to contribute, too selfish, needs to have the ball in his hands to score, is not a spot-up shooter, is not a good complimentary player–he’s a lazy defender and he did not help the team. When he was off the floor we were a better team (28-19 when he plays under 20 minutes, 22-18 when he plays over 20 minutes). When he is off the floor we have a 5% better winning percentage. Miles has always been billed as the team’s best “practice shooter”, but somehow he has not brought that into games. I think he still has several years of development before he starts getting more than 15mpg. There was only one month during the entire season where Miles had multiple 20 point games and if he is going to be a fixture on this team that is going to have to change. When motivated Miles can help us but those moments seem to be very few and far-between. The only things he offers are potential and depth – are those things good? Yes, but not 3.7 million dollars good.

I am now fully willing to retract those statements because of his play in the second half of last season – and especially in the playoffs. When CJ played more than 20 minutes (including playoffs) the Jazz were 29-16 (64.4% win percentage). CJ still needs to work on becoming a better player without the basketball and not rushing his jumpshot, but on the whole he has become a much better player than he was.

I think that his play next year will be very similar to his last 20 games of the season where he averaged 13p 3r 2a 1s and 1b per game, which would be huge for the Jazz. We still need a better scorer on the wing, but I think that CJ is slowly developing to fill that role.

Raja Bell is still the same player he was when he was with the Jazz. He hasn’t slowed down yet, he is a very good defender and a good shooter. In 2003-04 (his second to last season with the Jazz) the Jazz were 29-14 when he had a steal (67% win percentage). When you compare the games where he was active and effective defensively to the ones in which he didn’t play so well there WAS a huge difference in the Jazz success (compare to 13-26 when he didn’t get a steal). Raja is much like Price, he isn’t an offensive juggernaut (although he is a very good shooter) - he is a lock down defender.

Success at this position is going to come down to how well CJ and Raja play defense. We pretty much know what we will get offensively, but if they can slow down opposing wing players on a nightly basis as well we will have the foundation of a successful team, if not – expect a mid season trade to get some help.

——————————————–Small Forward———————————————-

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoHTcbvH3FY[/youtube]

Andrei Kirilenko 12p 5r 3a 1s 1b
Gordan Hayward *Rookie

Until the last month of the season it was pretty easy to say that Andrei was finally coming back to his old form. Kirilenko is one of the best role players in the NBA, and it has been a huge luxury to have him be able to start or come off of the bench. This year I think that he will be a starter and replace Ronnie Brewer’s baseline game (which should help him a lot). I think he will also get a lot of opportunity to post up smaller players and score with Memo pulling the opposing team’s power forward out of the post.

When Andrei played more than 20 minutes the Jazz were 33-15 (68.8% win percentage) and 27-12 when he played above 26 minutes (69.2% win percentage). When he played under 20 minutes the Jazz were 4-3 (57.1% win percentage). When Andrei is healthy the Jazz are a much better team.
One of the things he does that makes him so valuable is his passing. When he had three assists or more the Jazz were 21-8 (72.4% win percentage) and 13-5 when he had 4 or more (72.2% win percentage). He is also a very good rebounder for his position.

Andrei has always had the reputation of being a defensive player – really this is the facet of his game that makes the Jazz so good. When Andrei had 2 or more steals in a game the Jazz were 20-3 (86.9% win percentage) and when he had a block and a steal the Jazz were 21-8 (72.4% win percentage).
Andrei’s scoring is also important to us in big games. When he has 16 points or more the Jazz were 9-4 (69.2% win percentage).

With Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap being the main players in the post defensively Andrei will become even more important due to his shot blocking ability. I expect that his averages for blocks, steals, and rebounds will go up by a fairly significant margin due in part to the fact that the Jazz will need all the help defense they can get, and because the Jazz have players that are better at staying with – and slowing down their man.

As far as Hayward is concerned, I don’t have much to add to what I already have in the past. I don’t feel like digging for his stats at Butler, nor do I think that the Summer League was a good representative of how good he will be in his rookie year. Most of his value will come from the fact that he is an all-around, do anything player. Once he learns to drop his rear on defense he will be a great defender, he is a reliable shooter, he is a great ball handler and he is a perfect system player. There really are no major flaws with his game that I have seen other than being a bit too passive – but once he figures out he can play with good NBA players he will be a big part of the Jazz’ depth chart.

——————————————–Power Forward———————————————-

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TqXjZXzgWY&feature=related[/youtube]

Paul Millsap 12p 7r 2a 1s 1b
Mehmet Okur 14p 7r 2a 1b

Really the depth chart at power forward this year is just a guessing game. I think that I am convinced that Al is best as a center, but I also think that Memo would benefit from playing a bit of power forward as well.

Millsap has been a fan favorite since he started playing for the Jazz, now he is one of our “Big Three”. The Jazz success in many games is linked to the way Millsap plays. In games where he plays and the Jazz when he averages three more points than in losses. In games where Paul had 15 points or more (which I assume will be about what he averages as a starter) the Jazz were 18-5 (78.3% win percentage) and in games where he had 20 points or more the Jazz were 8-1 (88.9% win percentage).
Millsap is an all-around player, so even though we will rely on him being able to score his defense is also extremely important. In games where he has 8 rebounds or more the Jazz were 19-6 (76% win percentage).

Even with Memo coming off the bench this year will be the most important of his career. We need a player that can score, rebound and defend multiple positions in the post coming off the bench because Fess simply doesn’t give the Jazz enough yet. The biggest thing that we will need from Memo is his ability to spread the floor and capitalize on opportunities on offense. Last year when Memo scored 16 or more the Jazz were 15-8 (65.2% win percentage) and when he scored 20 or more the Jazz were 8-3 (72.7% win percentage). Also, in games where Memo made more than one three point shot the Jazz were 16-8 (66.7% win percentage) and when he shot 30% or better on threes the Jazz were 26-11 (70.2% win percentage).

His new found shot blocking ability has also help the Jazz to win more than they would have before. When he blocked a shot in a game the Jazz were 36-15 (70.1% win percentage). Memo is also pretty good at poking the ball away from bigger, slower players. In games where he had a steal the Jazz were 19-8 (67% win percentage).

——————————————–Center———————————————-

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd5Ms89b2bc&feature=related[/youtube]

Al Jefferson 17p 9r 2a 1s 1b
Kyrylo Fesenko 3p 2r .3a .4b

Poor Al Jefferson could never really catch a break in Minnesota. No matter how well he did the Wolves still lost, he could go for 20 and 20 (one game with 26 and 24) and they would lose, he could score over 30 (one with 36 and 14) and it still would not matter. Jefferson, however, is a great player that will fit in perfectly with the Jazz. He is big, has great footwork, puts forth a ton of effort and he is tough.

I expect that Jefferson will return to the form he had in the two seasons prior to this one where he averaged 21 and 11 then 23 and 11. Jefferson’s size and scoring ability will really help the Jazz against teams like the Lakers (where he averaged 19 and 11), Celtics (19 and 8), Dallas (26 and 11) and Houston (23 and 18).

One concern that people have with Al is his recent injuries. Last season Al improved his scoring average in each month except February which points to the fact that he is rehabbing well. I fully expect him to be at 100% come game time.

Now we are finally on to the last player on the Jazz roster, Fes. There really isn’t too much for me to say about him since he plays so little. He is a big body, a good rebounder and every team feels his presence when he is the game – but it isn’t because he is a big offensive threat or a skill player - he is just simply huge and athletic. It has been fun watching him develop through the years and I think that he is getting close to fulfilling his potential. As a 23 year old 7-1 center he still has the ability to become something special and I think that this year will be the year in which he finally takes a somewhat significant role for the Jazz.

——————————————–———————————————-

For the first time in a long time the Jazz’ biggest strength will be their defense. When everyone is clicking defensively the Jazz will play well, and when they don’t we will have a bit of a struggle. Having the depth that we have won’t hurt either, especially when we get to the playoffs. I think that we finally have the talent to be a number two seed and make it back to the conference finals, but we are still missing a perimeter scorer and I think that will end up hurting us unless CJ makes huge strides in his game.

Well, I hope that all of you enjoyed this!

[Purch]

Excellent read. Where did you get all these stats lol.

To bad Real gm will be the only ones to read this post xD

[jazzfan1971]

Nice read. Didn't feel long to me.

[gojazzmjsucks]

Great Post. I think Ak and CJ are really important to our success too. I really liked the part about Ronnie Price. I love his energy on the court, however he gets me mad with his decisions sometimes. He is still a young kid too though and may improve as we give him a couple more minutes here and there.

[HolyToledo]

I think your mistaken as to who starts. I think AK-47 will be coming off the bench. CJ will start at SF and Raja at SG because they need AK-47 off the bench to play behind both forward positions. Sloan likes AK-47 off the bench as well. Ak-47 prefers to start but Sloan could care less about him.

But at the end of games, you will see CJ on the bench and AK-47 at SF and Raja at SG.

Good breakdown using stats. Season unfortunately seems so far away!

[spoonhoops]

Enjoyed the post. I hope this is finally the year that Fes comes out of his shell and play like the center he can be.

[countrybama24]

Enjoyed the post. I hope this is finally the year that Fes comes out of his shell and play like the center he can be.

If he could just learn how to shoot FTs at like 60-70%, I would be happy. If he could figure out how to stay out of foul trouble, A+.

[babyjax13]

I have actually played basketball with Fes before (a game of horse). He has better form on his shot than you would think, but I just wanted to scream at him when he shot free throws. He lined up the center of the hoop with the center of his body (which is fine if you shoot with your head) and had a lot of movement in his routine (dropping his buttocks was the main problem). I can't believe no one has at least told him to lineup with his right foot lined up with the hoop when he shoots...I think it would help him a lot.

Also I want to apologize for some of the grammar. I just read back through it and it's terrible.

[babyjax13]

Excellent read. Where did you get all these stats lol.

To bad Real gm will be the only ones to read this post xD

Thanks!

I got all the stats from game logs and just compiled the win-loss percentages based on those. For that stats on Raja I went to basketball-reference.com (which is a great site). I thought about hitting 82games.com up, but they haven't updated in a long time.

[erudite23]

With Raja's ability to spread the floor while still defend at a fairly high level, I think you'll see him starting and playing 25ish mpg and his presence will allow Andrei to start the game at SF. CJ can come in and back up both positions if need be and allow Hayward to fill in wherever he earns it. With the addition of Jefferson, frontcourt minutes will again be scarce, meaning that AK will not play much 4 unless and injury comes into play. Either way, I'm sure AK starts. Raja might be brought off the bench behind CJ, but AK is more productive as a starter and needs the burn that comes with starting the game on the court. I like the mix of wings we have this year much better than in years past. We are missing a little of the finishing element that Brewer gave us, but right now we have an excellent combo of shooting, defense, off the ball movement and slashing. I think the pieces fit very well.

[outerspacefella]

Nice job babyjax.

Some stats can be dangerous advisors, but I think you put a nice piece of work there.
The only sustantive disagreement I have is about our PG rotation, where Williams is clear top tier (arguably best) while IMHO RonnieP and Gaines are one of the worst bacup PG rotations in the league.

I think the Jazz will have a more well rounded roster next season than last season. If Jefferson's 100% healthy his impact on the Jazz can be really HUUUGE. Bell's long range shooting have been consistently high and he's a standout perimeter defender.

Do we lost a little bit depth? Yes.
Can we contend with this core? Probably yes. If K-Fes take a step further with his game... can you imagine how hard it would be to play against a lineup of K-Fes, AJ and AK? That's what I call size and lenght!

[The59Sound]

Ronnie Price is the perfect third-string PG, who comes in and changes the pace. He's single-handedly brought us back into games with the Lakers many times. But he's also put us in huge holes, as well, with his inability to competently run an offense. We'd be much better off with someone who could calmly initiate the offense, hit guys in the right spots, and shoot the ball at the right times and at a better percentage.

[babyjax13]

I think as long as you have a second ball handler on the floor (CJ, AK, Hayward) Price is going to be fine as a second string point guard. I guess we will see

[The59Sound]

I think CJ's also very bad at those same things. But you're right that AK excels at that, and I've high hopes for Gordon.

[dr0welf]

Awesome read. I agree with pretty much everything.

Price is a good back up PG as he is up tempo and brings tons of energy. He does have some miscues but some of those are the other players fault not his. He needs to get better with the inlet pass into the post. But again some of that was poor positioning by Koufus and Fes. He did better when playing with Sap. I also believe he needs to be quicker at reading the 3rd and 4th options in the offense as he misses those passes at times and then is forced to dribble around and create. I think you will see some increase from him this year.

Gaines got thrown into this system with no camp. So he was learning as he went. With the PG position controlling a lot of what we do on offense, it takes some time to learn the reads. With his lack of playing time it takes longer. I think given a full camp he will also be able to learn more and have a better opportunity of showing us what he is capable of.

Fes will get better playing against Al. He seemed to take on some of Boozer's finesse moves instead of taking it strong to the hole. He has the body and size just needs to learn footwork and how to play the power game. Al is one of the best in the league at that and should bring a lot out of Fes this year.

again great post, wish games were already starting as I want to see if the potential = the reality.

[maccca32]

To say that Ronnie Price isn’t a good backup for Deron is completely untrue. He is the perfect Jerry Sloan player and he is a great defender that can wear down opposing guards. He can also play shooting guard with his tremendous athleticism - he is a versatile player. When Ronnie Price plays 11 or more minutes the Jazz are 25-12 (67.6% chance of winning) and 15-8 when he doesn’t (65.2% chance of winning). The record isn’t really that much different (2.4%) but over the 60 games he played he “created” 1.44 wins. But you have to take more into account as well. As a starter Price averaged 9 points and 6 assists in 31 minutes and was 2-2 (both losses being five points or less). Price is an energy player and when the Jazz play well he plays well (he shoots 44% in wins compared to 35% in losses and averages half a steal more per game). The Jazz were 40-20 when Price was available to play (66.7% win percentage) compared to 13-9 when he wasn't. Had the Jazz continued at that pace through the 22 game stretch he missed they would have finished with 55 wins and been the number 2 seed and matched up with San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs.

So we know that the Jazz play better when Price is available to play and that they are better when he shoots a high percentage – but just what is he doing that makes him play better in those games. Is it the amount of free throws he shoots? Steals? Three point shooting?

The answer is that when he is attacking the hole and active he makes the Jazz better. When Price has 2 or more free throws the Jazz are 14-7 (66.7% win percentage). When he has a steal the Jazz are 21-5 (80.7% win percentage) which to me suggests that his offense is not the main thing he brings to the table, it is his ability to frustrate opposing players. Had this trend continued in every game of the season the Jazz would theoretically have been 66-16. I really don’t think that the Jazz would really finish with that record when Price is playing good defense, but he is certainly a big part of the Jazz success when he plays.

Firstly I just wanted to say I do appreciate the time you put into the post BUT...

Ronnie Price isn’t a good backup for Deron. There I said it. I am not saying he is the worst or that it is a priority to upgrade but he just isnt that good and we could do better.

I like that you used stats to support your opinions but the truth is that stats can tell you virtually whatever you want them to say. The Jazz had the third best point differential in league and therefore you would expect a higher ratio of blowout wins to blowout losses. (As they say good teams dont win close games they avoid them) therefore the Jazz are expected to win a greater percentage of games when their backups play more minutes, where as the reverse would be true for the LA Clippers who had the third worst point differential.

When Ronnie Price plays 11 or more minutes the Jazz are 25-12 (67.6% chance of winning) and 15-8 when he doesn’t (65.2% chance of winning). The record isn’t really that much different (2.4%) but over the 60 games he played he “created” 1.44 wins.

A quick summary shows that the Jazz were 27-14 when Price played 11 or more minues (as per ESPN box scores). In those games, where the final point difference was 8 or greater the Jazz were 21-8 whereas when it was 7 or less the Jazz were 6-6. (Note: I havent gone through the individual game results but I will do this on the weekend). Therefore I believe the stat you have used is not a true indicator of Price's worth, positive or negative, to the team as the basis for you argument is flawed.

[babyjax13]

A quick summary shows that the Jazz were 27-14 when Price played 11 or more minues (as per ESPN box scores). In those games, where the final point difference was 8 or greater the Jazz were 21-8 whereas when it was 7 or less the Jazz were 6-6. (Note: I havent gone through the individual game results but I will do this on the weekend). Therefore I believe the stat you have used is not a true indicator of Price's worth, positive or negative, to the team as the basis for you argument is flawed.

I like it, I have a new stat whore friend

Are you sure you haven't included pre-season games in that total? I can't really see a reason why the Jazz would play their 9th man in a critical, end of game situation unless he was having a great game.

All he needs to do is give Deron a break in the middle of games so that he has the ability to finish out in the fourth quarter. He does a good job of this. While I would like to have a Chris Duhon/Steve Blake/Luke Ridnour off the bench Price has done an admirable job. All I wanted to prove is that he isn't terrible, he is "adequate" (although my standards may be different than others).

[nghedman]

On Memo
His new found shot blocking ability has also help the Jazz to win more than they would have before. When he blocked a shot in a game the Jazz were 36-15 (70.1% win percentage). Memo is also pretty good at poking the ball away from bigger, slower players. In games where he had a steal the Jazz were 19-8 (67% win percentage).

Thanks for this. I don't know how many times I've supported Memo on saying he isn't a bad defender one on one. He has stopped the best many a times. BUT he is a terrible HELP defender. We are spoiled from AK always covering the inside and he usually doesn't when Boozer and Memo were in.

That said..... Being a stat fiend myself in some respects I have to say your stats are based indirectly on who replaces the player. If CP3 replaced Deron then when he wasn't playing they would still win. Or if some no name replaced Deron than everytime he wasn't playing they would lose, thus ellivating Deron's numbers. I would expect that Milsap water downs Okur and Boozer's numbers a bit. And Boozer watered down Milsap's numbers (this is a good thing) Milsap will show how good a player he really is.

I hate to say it but I think Fes probably inflates Memo's numbers somewhat....if this all makes sense.

Also...I don't think Memo can or ever will play PF. His feet are too slow to cover the fast (or faster than centers) PF's in the league. But in the Jazz system he kinda plays that position anyway on offense but he still covers the center on defense.

[Luigi]

Great post and thread.

Who do you all see ending games for us? Sometimes it will be according to who's hot and matchups, but in general there will be a showdown between Bell and Miles, and between Millsap and Okur to close out games.

Personally, I would like to see Williams, Bell, Kirilenko, Jefferson, Okur (once he's healthy). Bell's defense, shooting, and intensity make the most sense. I expect Okur to play better with Jefferson, to bring post defense, and the clutch factor. If he and Jefferson have trouble rebounding, Millsap will probably beat him out, but on most other front's I like a healthy Okur.

[deadstock_bM]

Very nice write up. I hope Millsap makes a huge jump in production with his increase in minutes.