Championship: why not, or how. Strategy, tactics, best hopes

[hands11]

I think people overstate the revenue generating power of Arenas. Arenas meant a lot to this team in the past because he was the only superstar and superstars bring in the fans. But now, the Wizards have John Wall as their superstar. The fans are going to show up to see Wall. I don't think there are a lot of people for whom the presence of Arenas will be the difference-maker in whether or not they choose to buy season tickets.

Sure, I think they will show up to see Wall, but more will show up to see a winning team.

More are going to show up to see Wall, Gil, and Dray than just Wall loosing.

[LyricalRico]

I believe in Ted, EG, Flip, Sam and Wall. That matches against the best that is out there.

Here, here! That's the spirit!

[fishercob]

Whatever. You can twist my words if you want. Obviously, Miami is a different situation because they have 3 superstars who will inevitably compete for a championship every year. Do I really need to go back and amend my original statement with the clause: "Assuming a team isn't a contender..."?

Not trying to twist your words, nate. Sorry if that bothered you. I don;t want to turn this into another keep "Gil for the time being or trade him" discussion, because it's in multiple other threads and the owner has said he's staying.

That said (and rico or miller, feel free to move this over to another Gil thread), we don't know what we have in Arenas. We may have strong guesses, but we don't know. Gil post-rust last year seemed every bit the "star" the Bosh is, but we're going to have to wait and see.

And what made Gil a superstar wasn't just his play -- it was his personality. Giving away his jersey every night (who does that?), Scores for Schools, personally taking Katrina relief to the Armory, taking care of kids in the community who had lost parents, etc. That's the stuff that got him national endorsements and on the cover of video games, in addition to his play. And once he finds his comfort zone (or if he finds it) and if he's healthy, I fully expect the fan base to fall in love with him again. The guy is special.

Hell, I just read that with The Decision debacle and Tiger's crazy year, Kobe Bryant is now the most popular and marketable athlete on the planet. Kobe Bryant!

First, I want to apologize directly to the young woman involved in this incident. I want to apologize to her for my behavior that night and for the consequences she has suffered in the past year. Although this year has been incredibly difficult for me personally, I can only imagine the pain she has had to endure. I also want to apologize to her parents and family members, and to my family and friends and supporters, and to the citizens of Eagle, Colo.

I also want to make it clear that I do not question the motives of this young woman. No money has been paid to this woman. She has agreed that this statement will not be used against me in the civil case. Although I truly believe this encounter between us was consensual, I recognize now that she did not and does not view this incident the same way I did. After months of reviewing discovery, listening to her attorney, and even her testimony in person, I now understand how she feels that she did not consent to this encounter.

I issue this statement today fully aware that while one part of this case ends today, another remains. I understand that the civil case against me will go forward. That part of this case will be decided by and between the parties directly involved in the incident and will no longer be a financial or emotional drain on the citizens of the state of Colorado

It will take time, but Gil the star will be back if he can keep his head on straight and if his game mirror what we saw last year. He's smart and driven, so I'm betting on him. Wait, what were we talking about?

[Kanyewest]

I think people overstate the revenue generating power of Arenas. Arenas meant a lot to this team in the past because he was the only superstar and superstars bring in the fans. But now, the Wizards have John Wall as their superstar. The fans are going to show up to see Wall. I don't think there are a lot of people for whom the presence of Arenas will be the difference-maker in whether or not they choose to buy season tickets.

John Wall is not a superstar although I understand he can be a cash cow for this team. He still has to prove it on the court, and by the court, I don't mean summer league . Arenas in his hey-day was a superstar, although his stature has taken a hit with injuries and lockerroom incidents. Certainly, the casual sports fan in the DC area knows more about Arenas than John Wall, especially since Wall hasn't played a single game in the phone booth.

Wall can eventually be that guy sells tickets but he needs to actually play a few games to create some buzz. More importantly, people will come and see John Wall if the Wizards are winning, which Arenas is more likely to help contribute than your average expiring contract (see Eddy Curry). One is an established player whose hit game winners and the other is promise of a new hope, those are two reasons to watch the Wizards.

[hands11]

No D

I have posted plenty about the Wiz - Boston comparison so I see what your saying. Only...

Gil is not better than PP. I don't even think that is the right comparison. PP is a SF. He is longer and he plays D.

Gil needs to fill the R Allen slot and in that comparison, I think Gil does well. Ray is a deadly shot, so is Gil. Gil was a better driver to the hoop. We will have to see what he has left. Ray also had a fat contact just like Gil does. Only remaining question for Gil at SG is will be improve his D and maturity. I beat this is the year be plays more D and hopefully acts more mature.

So its.

Rondo vs Wall - I give the nod to Wall already. He has a better shot and FTs
Ray Allen vs Gilbert - Ray is the ultimate professional. Huge asset there. Gil has more overall skill.
PP vs ?? This is our biggest hole. We have no PP level SF. This is a huge hole.
KG vs Dray - I called him baby KG from the beginning. Said if he only played PF and started.
Perkins vs ?? No D McGee ? Seraphin ? Armstrong ? we need to see what we have here. I have little faith in McGees D but maybe Seraphin and Armstrong can fill in a defensive centers. If not, we need to add there.

The SF stud player is an amazingly huge hole on this team. This is usually one of your star players. Maybe your biggest star player. This is the one I have been talking about for a long time. Your SG/SF/PG or your SF/SG/PG This is your Kobe, Wade, PP, MGen, MJ type player. This is the player who can do it all.

Nick has all the physical skills of that player without any of the personality or brains to be it.
AT isn't it but probably the closest we have. Good enough to make the playoffs.
I doubt it is Booker but I hope I'm wrong.

We simply do not have this person or this potential person on our team as I see it today. As we talk about rebuilding, I have long said there are a hand full of these players in the league and if you want to win it all, you get them in their prime. Carmelo is one of them and he is who I thought we should target.

Rondo vs Wall
Ray Allen vs Gilbert
PP vs Carmello
KG vs Dray

By the time we would get Carmello, we could know what we have at center with Seraphin ( if he is here ), Armstrong and McGee.

That is how you build a championship team. You get really lucky and land Carmello. How do you do that. You keep Gil with Wall and show everyone this year how talented a team you have and what a great owner you have and how you are one piece away from being a contender. If you dump Gil, I don't think you have a chance to do that.

[GoneShammGone]

And what made Gil a superstar wasn't just his play -- it was his personality. Giving away his jersey every night (who does that?), Scores for Schools, personally taking Katrina relief to the Armory, taking care of kids in the community who had lost parents, etc. That's the stuff that got him national endorsements and on the cover of video games, in addition to his play. And once he finds his comfort zone (or if he finds it) and if he's healthy, I fully expect the fan base to fall in love with him again. The guy is special.

Hell, I just read that with The Decision debacle and Tiger's crazy year, Kobe Bryant is now the most popular and marketable athlete on the planet. Kobe Bryant!

...

It will take time, but Gil the star will be back if he can keep his head on straight and if his game mirror what we saw last year. He's smart and driven, so I'm betting on him. Wait, what were we talking about?

Kobe Bryant is an interesting case... I'm not sure where you read that he is now the most marketable athlete on the planet. Check out this link (pre-"decision"):

http://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/article/65957

Its true that Kobe's positive Q-score is moving back up... but notice that his negative Q-score is still extremely high. He seems to be a polarizing figure... with people feeling strongly about him in both directions. So seven years after Eagle, things are not completely rosy for Kobe.

What does this mean for Gil? Negative impressions are hard to reverse. Personally, I don't believe that what Gil did was comparable to Kobe's or Tiger's transgressions, but his actions, coupled with the fact that he hasn't played much over the last three years, has created a lot of negative feelings among the fanbase. I still love Gil as a player and a person, so I'm like you in hoping for a full-fledged Gil-the-superstar resurgence here in DC. But I'm somewhat more guarded in my expectations.

[hands11]

Whatever. You can twist my words if you want. Obviously, Miami is a different situation because they have 3 superstars who will inevitably compete for a championship every year. Do I really need to go back and amend my original statement with the clause: "Assuming a team isn't a contender..."?

Not trying to twist your words, nate. Sorry if that bothered you. I don;t want to turn this into another keep "Gil for the time being or trade him" discussion, because it's in multiple other threads and the owner has said he's staying.

That said (and rico or miller, feel free to move this over to another Gil thread), we don't know what we have in Arenas. We may have strong guesses, but we don't know. Gil post-rust last year seemed every bit the "star" the Bosh is, but we're going to have to wait and see.

And what made Gil a superstar wasn't just his play -- it was his personality. Giving away his jersey every night (who does that?), Scores for Schools, personally taking Katrina relief to the Armory, taking care of kids in the community who had lost parents, etc. That's the stuff that got him national endorsements and on the cover of video games, in addition to his play. And once he finds his comfort zone (or if he finds it) and if he's healthy, I fully expect the fan base to fall in love with him again. The guy is special.

Hell, I just read that with The Decision debacle and Tiger's crazy year, Kobe Bryant is now the most popular and marketable athlete on the planet. Kobe Bryant!

First, I want to apologize directly to the young woman involved in this incident. I want to apologize to her for my behavior that night and for the consequences she has suffered in the past year. Although this year has been incredibly difficult for me personally, I can only imagine the pain she has had to endure. I also want to apologize to her parents and family members, and to my family and friends and supporters, and to the citizens of Eagle, Colo.

I also want to make it clear that I do not question the motives of this young woman. No money has been paid to this woman. She has agreed that this statement will not be used against me in the civil case. Although I truly believe this encounter between us was consensual, I recognize now that she did not and does not view this incident the same way I did. After months of reviewing discovery, listening to her attorney, and even her testimony in person, I now understand how she feels that she did not consent to this encounter.

I issue this statement today fully aware that while one part of this case ends today, another remains. I understand that the civil case against me will go forward. That part of this case will be decided by and between the parties directly involved in the incident and will no longer be a financial or emotional drain on the citizens of the state of Colorado

It will take time, but Gil the star will be back if he can keep his head on straight and if his game mirror what we saw last year. He's smart and driven, so I'm betting on him. Wait, what were we talking about?

As one that called the event fall of Gil while he was at the height of popularity, I am equally calling for his rise while he is at his bottom in popularity.

All the signs are in his favor for a return. He hit rock bottom - I mean rock rock bottom. He was arrested and did time. He lost tones of money. He has rehabed the knee and rested. He lost him fan love and his image. He lost his mother he though - one day - he may reconnect with. But he is only 28. He is still signed and able to play in the NBA. He is still at heart a good dude even if he did go a little stupid and out of control. He has a great owner and a good head coach and assistant. He has a great PG to run with. He has a young PF on the rise. He doesn't have to do it all himself.

This is as good as it could look for his to make a come back.

I have a $100 bucks that says he does it if there are any takers. But I warn you, I have never lost a beat because I only beat when I know I won't loose.

You can caulk it up. Gil will produce nicely this year and Wall and Gil along with Dray will be highly talked about around the NBA. We have three. Now Ted needs to bring us Melo so we have four. Then we can start talking about rings.

I would love to see our four again Miamis three or the Celtics again four.

Wall, Gil, Melo and Dray
Wade, LaDouche, and Bosh
Rondo, R Allen, PP, KG

Bring us Melo Ted.

[Wizardspride]

I think people overstate the revenue generating power of Arenas. Arenas meant a lot to this team in the past because he was the only superstar and superstars bring in the fans. But now, the Wizards have John Wall as their superstar. The fans are going to show up to see Wall. I don't think there are a lot of people for whom the presence of Arenas will be the difference-maker in whether or not they choose to buy season tickets.

Sure, I think they will show up to see Wall, but more will show up to see a winning team.

More are going to show up to see Wall, Gil, and Dray than just Wall loosing.

[fishercob]

And what made Gil a superstar wasn't just his play -- it was his personality. Giving away his jersey every night (who does that?), Scores for Schools, personally taking Katrina relief to the Armory, taking care of kids in the community who had lost parents, etc. That's the stuff that got him national endorsements and on the cover of video games, in addition to his play. And once he finds his comfort zone (or if he finds it) and if he's healthy, I fully expect the fan base to fall in love with him again. The guy is special.

Hell, I just read that with The Decision debacle and Tiger's crazy year, Kobe Bryant is now the most popular and marketable athlete on the planet. Kobe Bryant!

...

It will take time, but Gil the star will be back if he can keep his head on straight and if his game mirror what we saw last year. He's smart and driven, so I'm betting on him. Wait, what were we talking about?

Kobe Bryant is an interesting case... I'm not sure where you read that he is now the most marketable athlete on the planet.

Darren Rovell may have tweeted it? I'll look.

[penbeast0]

I think people overstate the revenue generating power of Arenas. Arenas meant a lot to this team in the past because he was the only superstar and superstars bring in the fans. But now, the Wizards have John Wall as their superstar. The fans are going to show up to see Wall. I don't think there are a lot of people for whom the presence of Arenas will be the difference-maker in whether or not they choose to buy season tickets.

People don't show up to see superstars, they show up to see "their" team or they show up to see a winner. Superstars are mainly relevant in one of those two ways . . . if they are class acts who stay around, do appearances, and become part of the community (like Wes Unseld/Phil Chenier did back in the day), that can generate loyalty . . . if a team of scrappy underachievers with no superstars starts winning like that Detroit team, they become stars (Ben Wallace, Rip Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, etc. None of them were stars in previous stops). A superstar doesn't draw fans by himself except in very rare situations where the player is big enough to "transcend" the sport (Wilt, Magic/Bird, Jordan, Yao).

P.S. or, they show up if the games are reasonably priced entertainment, but that isn't usually the NBA though I used to wait for the specials and cheap deals to see them growing up. Otherwise I watched them on Channel 45.

[pancakes3]

people absolutely show up to see superstars. the diehards who went to watch whitney/jahidi/popeye are insignificant compared to the hordes of young gen z transplants that see a wiz game as a great excuse to go out and party. between the gilbachi returning, john wall having his own dance, and playing d12/miami/JJ 6x @ the phone booth and you're looking at a ton of tickets sold soley based on the drawing power of "superstars".

superstars are also the sole motivator of... JERSEY SALES. mesh t-shirts going for hundreds of dollars? not since the soda consortium has an industry seen this kind of markup.

[montestewart]

After buying only individual game tickets since the 70s, the 2004-05 season changed things for me. The team got exciting and I went to every playoff game, but by far the most important single factor in my buying a ticket package was the emergence of Arenas. I've renewed every year, and part of that was waiting for the reemergence of Arenas. They're my team whether he's injured or not, whether he's traded or not, but over that time, he provided the bulk of the special moments. Maybe that time has truly passed, maybe not. Maybe watching Wall lead the Wizards redevelopment would be enough even if they struggled. After all, they are my team.

I wouldn't sell short the potential draw of Arenas. If he is able to come back to a considerable measure of his former self but as a significant second fiddle to Wall, he could not only provide great excitement for the fans but actually help the team greatly on court and in its development, and maybe even remember that he once played some defense. The drama of such a comeback would certainly generate interest, and coupled with improvement on court by the team and Arenas, the options for the Wizards expand; under such a scenario, more trade opportunities will emerge, especially as time passes and the contract gets smaller.

We can debate endlessly the likelihood of realizing such a scenario, but I'm excited by the prospect of a motivated Arenas coming back and trying to show that he can be all that. I don't easily dismiss Arenas dumps to make way for BOYD deals, and some trade may come along that I would quickly embrace as part of the greater good, but I hope they try Arenas for a year, or at least a semester. I think that's a good tactic.

[VictorPage44]

I could've dragged this one out, but for now I'll keep it short and sweet...

1) Keep Everyone (Blatche, McGee, Arenas)
2) Perry Jones
3) Championship

[Hoopalotta]

It's worth putting this one in here as I don't see those who want to keep Gil for a contender address the point of our short cap space window with tangible ideas:

(yes, I'm quoting myself)

As fodder to feed assorted partisan pugilists on both sides, it should be mentioned that....

1) If we keep Gil through 2012 and or plan to build a proper contender with him
2) If We're also offering substantial contracts to Javale & Dray after the 2012 season

.....realistically*, we'll need to perform the 'big cap-space sexy' after the lockout in the signing period that comes right before the 2012 season. After those contract extensions, and accounting for our roster, the only money we'll have after that window will be in the MLE type range.

(obviously not everyone who doesn't want to trade Gil is advocating point 1, but I'm just throwing this out there)

If we don't manage to move Kirby Heinzerlich before the deadline - and we probably won't even try - I'm figuring we'll be at something like $45+ million during the post-lockout signing window if we renounce all of our restricted free agents (that would be Yi, Thornton & Young; I've got tissues if you need 'em).

Nobody knows what the cap is going to be after the new CBA agreement, but it is likely to come down at least bit. There's the possibility that owners force concessions in other areas, like guaranteed contract length, and it stays in the $56-58 million range. Radical projections the other way could see it at $50 million or even less** (that later scenario would screw us pretty good, as we'd then be looking at MLE type money in our supposed “big sexy” window).

But if anyone were hypothetically plotting a Gil contender under the above criteria, you'd want to have a fast ball pitch lined up for that $5-$13 million sitting there right after the lockout as it's almost surely our last chance to use that angle. That's the window for cap space in this particular scenario and any plan would need to account for that limitation. After that you've just got midround picks, MLE's and trades.

* One could argue that we could carve some cap room in 2014 by dealing Gil in 2013, but it would require a very diligent and probably counter productive holding pattern as far as adding other players who aren't on rookie deals between now and then. I'm also ruling out the idea that someone would simply absorb Gil into raw cap space in 2013.

** If the cap were to come in that low, it would be a fantastic time to have space, as a lot of teams would be desperate to shed salary to avoid buyouts, luxury taxes or what have you.

So you've just about got to retool rather than rebuild in that situation.

If anyone had a solid answer for how to bring in other elite talent while keeping Gil and rise to the point of competing within the life of Gil's contract, I would feel more supportive of the venture. After having gone over the possibilities myself, I don't really see much that I find compelling.

Within that next signing period, about the best I could come up with was the dual acquisitions of Anderson Varejao and Thaddeus Young while renouncing all our restricted guys (and even that would require getting creative, possibly sacrificing some assets and having a higher end sort of cap figure to work with).

McGee/Varejao
Blatche/Varejao
T.Young/Booker?
Arenas/Hiney
Wall/Hiney

It's not a bad squad (so long as Thaddeus can D-up like you'd want), but they'll get cooked by the top dogs. Needless to say I would have liked it a lot better had the free agent signings ended up with greater parity.

[gesa2]

Hoopa, you assume that none of our draft picks will contribute going forward, and that there's no chance of a trade using Teddy's hopefully open wallet - ie, trade Hinrich in year 2 for disgruntled star X, or trade future #1 picks and Blatch/McGee with Gil's contract for a 2 way big or something similar. If we accumulate assets, and have an owner who's willing to spend when the window is starting to open, we'll have more flexibility than you give us credit for.

[montestewart]

Hoopa, you assume that none of our draft picks will contribute going forward, and that there's no chance of a trade using Teddy's hopefully open wallet - ie, trade Hinrich in year 2 for disgruntled star X, or trade future #1 picks and Blatch/McGee with Gil's contract for a 2 way big or something similar. If we accumulate assets, and have an owner who's willing to spend when the window is starting to open, we'll have more flexibility than you give us credit for.

That's a really concise way of putting it; Arenas staying doesn't necessarily shut down all options, as you've noted. The reason why I see a lot of merit in things said by nate33, fishercob, hoopalotta, dat2u (and most everyone else along the spectrum) is that there's risk in doing the opposite of virtually every plan mentioned. Maybe there's more risk in not trading Arenas as soon as possible without giving things away to do so, but maybe there's risk in giving him away and never realizing a damn thing with the savings. Damn. Everyone here (almost) wants the Wizards to play for a championship and (I assume) is happy with whatever moves are required. Which move the right one here?

Leonsis has his back, but I wouldn't want to be EG right now with this one.

[hands11]

It's worth putting this one in here as I don't see those who want to keep Gil for a contender address the point of our short cap space window with tangible ideas:

(yes, I'm quoting myself)

As fodder to feed assorted partisan pugilists on both sides, it should be mentioned that....

1) If we keep Gil through 2012 and or plan to build a proper contender with him
2) If We're also offering substantial contracts to Javale & Dray after the 2012 season

.....realistically*, we'll need to perform the 'big cap-space sexy' after the lockout in the signing period that comes right before the 2012 season. After those contract extensions, and accounting for our roster, the only money we'll have after that window will be in the MLE type range.

(obviously not everyone who doesn't want to trade Gil is advocating point 1, but I'm just throwing this out there)

If we don't manage to move Kirby Heinzerlich before the deadline - and we probably won't even try - I'm figuring we'll be at something like $45+ million during the post-lockout signing window if we renounce all of our restricted free agents (that would be Yi, Thornton & Young; I've got tissues if you need 'em).

Nobody knows what the cap is going to be after the new CBA agreement, but it is likely to come down at least bit. There's the possibility that owners force concessions in other areas, like guaranteed contract length, and it stays in the $56-58 million range. Radical projections the other way could see it at $50 million or even less** (that later scenario would screw us pretty good, as we'd then be looking at MLE type money in our supposed “big sexy” window).

But if anyone were hypothetically plotting a Gil contender under the above criteria, you'd want to have a fast ball pitch lined up for that $5-$13 million sitting there right after the lockout as it's almost surely our last chance to use that angle. That's the window for cap space in this particular scenario and any plan would need to account for that limitation. After that you've just got midround picks, MLE's and trades.

* One could argue that we could carve some cap room in 2014 by dealing Gil in 2013, but it would require a very diligent and probably counter productive holding pattern as far as adding other players who aren't on rookie deals between now and then. I'm also ruling out the idea that someone would simply absorb Gil into raw cap space in 2013.

** If the cap were to come in that low, it would be a fantastic time to have space, as a lot of teams would be desperate to shed salary to avoid buyouts, luxury taxes or what have you.

So you've just about got to retool rather than rebuild in that situation.

If anyone had a solid answer for how to bring in other elite talent while keeping Gil and rise to the point of competing within the life of Gil's contract, I would feel more supportive of the venture. After having gone over the possibilities myself, I don't really see much that I find compelling.

Within that next signing period, about the best I could come up with was the dual acquisitions of Anderson Varejao and Thaddeus Young while renouncing all our restricted guys (and even that would require getting creative, possibly sacrificing some assets and having a higher end sort of cap figure to work with).

McGee/Varejao
Blatche/Varejao
T.Young/Booker?
Arenas/Hiney
Wall/Hiney

It's not a bad squad (so long as Thaddeus can D-up like you'd want), but they'll get cooked by the top dogs. Needless to say I would have liked it a lot better had the free agent signings ended up with greater parity.

Hoop

Here are some issues with your analysis as I see it.

One - Most people promoting keeping Gil to start this year are simply saying keep Gil to start the season. This is the best way to build excitement and win and have Gils value goes up. After that, who knows.

Two - No on knows what the new CBA will bring. I would expect Ted to have some inside scoop information so I will be reading his tea leaves. My WAG based on no facts is that any new CBA will have some prevision for grandfathered issues and large contracts will be a part of that in some form. More specifically, large contract of players who are injured or who totally mess up like Gil did where even Stern stepped in will be addressed.

But if the cap is lowered or contract become more non guaranteed, there will be some grandfather stuff to address that. There are simply to many contracts like this out there to lower the caps, and change the way contracts are done without giving team some way to transition to the new system. What those prevision are, who knows.

For example, we didn't used to have Bird rights, but now we do.

So some of us just want to enjoy what is looking to be an exciting season with our New owner, our finally on the same page front office and coaches, our exciting #1 draft pick, our returning top scoring SG playing in a position that will maximize the totally team effectiveness, our budding PF, and cast.

This should get us to at least the trade deadline. What happens after January as we get closer to that deadline will be dealt with after January when we have more information. But we do have the the right information to make what many, including Ted view as the right moves and that means getting behind the return of Gil. Now if we can get someone like Melo for Gil today, that is totally different debate.

[Hoopalotta]

I suppose I got dragged in....

Hoopa, you assume that none of our draft picks will contribute going forward...

I was actually assuming that we'd have to sacrifice assets to score T.Young and Varejao and/or just didn't pencil in the unknowns on the depth chart. Keep in mind for my model that we probably won't have the cap space for Varejao AND Thaddeus Young once the new CBA goes down (so, we might have been looking at Hinreich and a middling asset for Varejao)

Also in that example, whatever other bigs we'd have, Varejao would be almost surely be above them on the playoff depth chart for the life of Gil's deal, and even if not, it's unlikely that they'd be able to seriously outplay him to a 'game changing' level. Hypothetically speaking, if we're throwing in better backups/prospects at the small forward or shooting guard, I don't think it makes that much difference as far as really getting over the hump in the playoffs.

Keep in mind that I am not creating this roster as a straw man - this was my legit best attempt which
I came up with before LeBron decided to take his talents to South Beach under the premise that the East just might have historical parity. I would not have been entirely averse to that crew under different circumstances.

It's not a bad team. You've got a ball dominant back court, three initiators/facilitators in Gil, Wall and Blatche, Thaddeus as a long limbed, open court slasher who finishes/shoots the three-ball and then a top tier defensive big in Varejao who doesn't need the ball. The pieces fit perfectly and are highly attainable (Thaddeus in particular is probably an undervalued asset based on the poor fit in Philly last year and their glut of wings). That's not even getting into the ceilings of Blatche and McGee.

They could have potentially beaten a Wade-Bosh-Haywood core and possibly a decaying Orlando squad in about two to three years. LBJ on either the Cavs or the Knicks would have been beatable by that group as well.

And, that team is better than most anything I've seen thrown out of late by those who would like to build around Gil. Actually, I haven't really seen many tangible roster suggestions since after the free agent period closed as to what would be put around Gil, so that's not much of a contest.

.....and that there's no chance of a trade using Teddy's hopefully open wallet - ie, trade Hinrich in year 2 for disgruntled star X

This is another problem: even with throwing in sweetener - like Seraphin or our 2011 pick - Hiney's our only expiring and it's an inadequate salary block for making the money match if we're looking for a disgruntled star and have no cap space.

Could somebody be acquired? Yes, but you've got year 2 of Hiney's deal @ $8 million plus a few rookie contracts and minimum salary dudes and that's the end of it unless you move Hiney for a larger 2013 expiring.

But it's not contest that we're WAAAAYYY better equipped to take advantage of this scenario without $20 million on the books and slightly higher draft seeding. No contest.

or trade future #1 picks and Blatch/McGee with Gil's contract for a 2 way big or something similar.

There's a 99.99% that anyone trading a legit 2-way big is going to want a rebuilding package with salary relief - not 2 years @ $43 million of a 30 year old Gilbert. If we're talking three years out, look out for PPP and/or BYC status for McGee and Blatche after they re-up, making their salaries hard in a straight up deal.

Maybe Gil could be used as the center piece of a package by trading him to a third team for expirings, but that's not a sure thing and adds a great deal of complexity.

If we accumulate assets

This is a huge part of the problem for me. The "accumulate assets" phase really should be taking place before we're competing in the east without salary cap space. Otherwise, the "assets" are what I mentioned above: mid round picks, MLE talent and whatever can be acquired in trades. Historically, you can only expect so much momentum here.

It's retooling versus rebuilding.

.....and have an owner who's willing to spend when the window is starting to open, we'll have more flexibility than you give us credit for.

Again, I don't see how Ted is going to be able to spend at that point beyond the MLE. It doesn't matter if he's willing to open his wallet as the CBA will prevent him from doing so.

I stand by my position that having the flexibility to procure difference making acquisitions is a huge problems under the 'build around Gil' plan.

[Hoopalotta]

Here are some issues with your analysis as I see it.

One - Most people promoting keeping Gil to start this year are simply saying keep Gil to start the season. This is the best way to build excitement and win and have Gils value goes up. After that, who knows.

You are correct hands, the above argument is just about the "full-monty" version of the build around Gil plan. Carrying him into the season and being open to making a move is indeed a different scenario with a whole different set of parameters, so my above statements shouldn't be taken as speaking to that point.

Two - No on knows what the new CBA will bring. I would expect Ted to have some inside scoop information so I will be reading his tea leaves. My WAG based on no facts is that any new CBA will have some prevision for grandfathered issues and large contracts will be a part of that in some form. More specifically, large contract of players who are injured or who totally mess up like Gil did where even Stern stepped in will be addressed.

But if the cap is lowered or contract become more non guaranteed, there will be some grandfather stuff to address that. There are simply to many contracts like this out there to lower the caps, and change the way contracts are done without giving team some way to transition to the new system. What those prevision are, who knows.

For example, we didn't used to have Bird rights, but now we do.

That's fair. We'll have to see what's going to happen, but do I think it will be tighter with a smaller cap figure. Basically, if the owners win concessions as far as revenue sharing, there will necessarily be a smaller cap figure as the calculations of the cap are based on the percentage of the gross earnings that go to the players. If that number comes down, and by all accounts this is the goal of the owners, the cap will come down too.

There could be some "outs" put into the agreement as you mentioned, it's true, but when I went back and looked at the Allen Houston Rule, I was rather disappointed as to what was offered in the provisions.

Of course I have no inside info, but I'm not very optimistic as to how this is going to help us (I could see our situation being brought up to help another team down the road). I also think that right after the lockout, there could easily be a purging period as a lot of teams try and move big deals, which will make for a tough go of it.

So some of us just want to enjoy what is looking to be an exciting season with our New owner, our finally on the same page front office and coaches, our exciting #1 draft pick, our returning top scoring SG playing in a position that will maximize the totally team effectiveness, our budding PF, and cast.

This should get us to at least the trade deadline. What happens after January as we get closer to that deadline will be dealt with after January when we have more information. But we do have the the right information to make what many, including Ted view as the right moves and that means getting behind the return of Gil. Now if we can get someone like Melo for Gil today, that is totally different debate.

That's a fair point. I see some mention that they are enjoying the discussion, but I'm pretty much not of that mind.

Somehow I allowed myself to get baited in here, I guess mostly in seeing things that I consider to be factual errors, specifically the assorted mentions of our having "lots of cap space" for some indeterminate amount of time. I started speaking to that and, well, it's a slippery slope....

But yeah, I'd just like to enjoy the season too.

[MJ7]

We need a really good season from Gilbert, he's a great player who can put up big buckets when he's rolling, but I feel like he's got to be more aggressive, have a drive, a passion if you will. He needs to play like he did in 2005-2006, and I want a good year from our rookie McGee!