Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

[AceDegenerate]

Nate33,

I don't disagree with most of what you say, but your entire take is based on the conclusion that "a $20M per year Arenas is not a good fit for this team". While that may be possible, I think it is unlikely and probably not the case. I think it is more likely that Wall/Arenas are the PERFECT complements.

Are you saying that if Arenas was an unrestricted free agent this summer, you would actively pursue him and sign him a 4-year, $20M contract?

I am.

[Hoopalotta]

^ not to mention you still have to pay all the buyout money, which would be $63 million dollars in this case.

Nobody's going for that.

[Ruzious]

Vince Carter
2010-2011 $17,300,000

2011-2012 $18,000,000 (team option)

The team option in 2011-2012 has a 4 million dollar buyout in its provisions.

Very good. Now, we know where the 35 mil came from and why it has no basis in reality.

[WizStorm]

And i'm nearly 100% sure there will be an Allan Houston rule or some sort of grandfathered max deal that will be implemented to aid teams with large contracts on the books. That is where the injury risk for Gil is somewhat mitigated and allows for a 1 year trial to see just how good a Gil/Wall duo can be. If the duo doesn't work or Gil reinjures himself or just isn't the same player, the Wizards will have an out without having to actually endure a season of VC and a potential loss of a draft pick.

The last time the Allan Houston rule was instituted, it only provided relief from the luxtax; it did not provide salary cap relief. For example, consider a hypothetical team with a $70M payroll including a $20M dead weight contract. The luxtax is $65M, and the salary cap is $58M. If this hypothetical team used the Allan Houston rule to dump the $20M deadweight contract, their cap number would remain $70M but their luxtax number would be $50M. They would be under the luxtax but would not have $8M in raw cap space to go find another player.

Basically, the Allan Houston rule only provides help for the owner's wallet. It does little to facilitate player movement. In our scenario, I don't see any way that we'll be over the luxtax in the foreseeable future, so I don't see how a new Allan Houston rule is going to help us in any way.

I was actually talking about an "Allan Houston" type of rule like that and not the actual rule itself (that is why I talked about some sort of grandfather clause as well). IIRC, the last CBA was all about instituting a luxury tax and that is why that specific "Allan Houston" rule was implemented at that time to help teams adjust to the new rules. Now in the next CBA, If we're talking about a hard cap or even a reduced cap number, i'm sure the owners would find it in their best interest to put loopholes on current large deals so that teams don't automatically put themselves into a competitive disadvantage. And if we're not talking about new cap rules in the new CBA and just stricter luxury tax rules, then the Wizards are in good shape and it's a non-issue anyways. And all i'm saying, as long as the Wizards are in the upper 10% in terms of financial flexibility (which they are WITH Gil's deal), they will be in good shape no matter what.

[AceDegenerate]

Signing Gilbert to a 4-Year 80mill deal has no basis in reality either.

[AceDegenerate]

Trading Gilbert for Vince Carter has no basis in reality either. The team Owner has come out and said Gilbert Arenas is our FRANCHISE Player.

So you can all just EAT IT.

G-I-L-B-E-R-T
A-R-E-N-A-S

IS THE WIZARDS F-R-A-N-C-H-I-S-E PLAYER.

If you don't like it, I suggest you all find another team to root for.




U MAD?!?!?!

[WizStorm]

Vince Carter
2010-2011 $17,300,000

2011-2012 $18,000,000 (team option)

The team option in 2011-2012 has a 4 million dollar buyout in its provisions.

Very good. Now, we know where the 35 mil came from and why it has no basis in reality.

And if you actually read what I wrote, you would see that is exactly what I said.

[Ruzious]

The team option in 2011-2012 has a 4 million dollar buyout in its provisions.

Very good. Now, we know where the 35 mil came from and why it has no basis in reality.

And if you actually read what I wrote, you would see that is exactly what I said.

If this quote is what you're talking about

Sure my analogy is false, just like yours was.

you did it in an obviously mis-leading way.

[fishercob]

Nate33,

I don't disagree with most of what you say, but your entire take is based on the conclusion that "a $20M per year Arenas is not a good fit for this team". While that may be possible, I think it is unlikely and probably not the case. I think it is more likely that Wall/Arenas are the PERFECT complements.

Are you saying that if Arenas was an unrestricted free agent this summer, you would actively pursue him and sign him a 4-year, $20M contract?

In a heartbeat! 4 year, $80M might be another story.

As I've said, I still think that's an incomplete way of looking at things. Was it a "good deal" for Boston to pay Ray Allen $16M for his 16.4 PER (14.9 in the playoffs) in 07-08 -- on top of the $40M they paid to Pierce and KG that season? Probably not, but it was enabled by stealing Perkins and Rondo for a combined $5.7M. Steve Smith and Danny Ferry swindled the '03 champion Spurs out of $15M, but San Ant didn't feel a thing because they were paying Parker and Manu a combined $2M (they weren't all-stars yet, but still).

I think there's some risk in making sure that every player on the team is properly priced relative to the market value. For one, as we've seen, a player's value fluctuates based on his play. Blatche didn't look like the steal he is now two years ago. Moreover, you don't win anything for just having "value." You need talent. If our young guys -- and their "sub-open-market" deals -- allow us to keep Gil around, even if he's only worth 70% of his contract, but he's helping on the court and with our long-term development then I'm all for it.

[Wizardspride]

Trading Gilbert for Vince Carter has no basis in reality either. The team Owner has come out and said Gilbert Arenas is our FRANCHISE Player.

So you can all just EAT IT.

G-I-L-B-E-R-T
A-R-E-N-A-S

IS THE WIZARDS F-R-A-N-C-H-I-S-E PLAYER.

[Kanyewest]

Boy do I hate these hypotheticals. My question then would be if Vince Carter was a FA, would you pursue him for a 2 year, 35 million deal (with a $4 million buyout clause on the 2nd year) and also possibly give up a 1st round draft pick in order to sign him?

C'mon WizStorm. You're better than that. Your analogy is completely false. We're not talking about signing Vince Carter with raw cap space to a $35M deal. We're talking about exchanging Gil's $80M salary obligation for Vince Carter's $22M salary obligation.

My point was to explore JJ's assertion that Arenas is the PERFECT fit. I was trying to get him to examine his thoughts more carefully to see if he would reassess that evaluation.

Just trying to clarify: would the $4 million buyout count against the cap? Would the Wizards be under the cap in 2012 and beyond after Blatche and McGee are up for their extensions.

The correct answer is to wait until the trading deadline. Right now the Wizards would be selling Arenas low IMO. Heck, we don't even know if that Vince Carter deal is even on the table unless the Wizards take on a bad contract like Brandon Bass. If you have your doubts that a Wall/Arenas backcourt will work, Orlando certainly has their doubts about a Nelson/Arenas backcourt. At least Wall has the athleticism to guard shooting guards. Maybe Orlando is still trying to force Rashard Lewis to us instead of Vince Carter.

If Orlando really believes that Arenas will make them a better team and are willing to trade for Gilbert Arenas today, I'm not so sure why they wouldn't consider doing it by February of 2011. There's a risk for injury for Arenas but we're closing in on two years since his last knee surgery. Arenas may shed that label within the year.

By the trading deadline, the Wizards also get a better idea whether there are any free agent targets that they can go after. Anthony from all accounts is about to sign his extension. If the Wizards want Marc Gasol, and the Grizzlies suddenly become a playoff caliber team in the West, the Wiards would have to scratch that route, especially since the Grizzlies will have a lot of flexibility to re-sign Gasol, since Randolph is a free agent this upcoming offseason.

[fishercob]

I don't think that the proponents of keeping Gil rather than getting the financial flexibility are adequately taking into the downside risks if things don't go well with Gil, my primary concern being yet another injury.

Thank you for addressing the other part of my argument. I can appreciate the concerns with Gil reinjuring himself, a risk that every team that pays big dollars for free agents is saddled with. After watching Gil play last season on his repaired leg and the fact he got a league imposed break that allowed Gil to have even more time fully heal his leg, i'm confident that the re-injury risk to Gil is not any greater than most any other player. That is a big reason why I am so adament that dumping Gil is not the right move at the current time.

This is all about faith in Ted. Who are any of us -- none of us doctors and certainly none of us having examined Gil's knee -- to have confidence or not in the soundness of Gil's knee?

But I do know that Ted Leonsis is a really, really smart business man. He wouldn't be making public commitments to Gilbert unless he was convinced by his medical people (who I assume are at the top of their field and not Abe's next door neighbors) that Gil is good to go.

KG's knee injury that cost Boston a title (and won one for the Lakers) came out of absolute nowhere. Grant Hill almost died from complications of three ankle surgeries and has missed one game over the past two seasons. Penny never recovered from wrecking his knee. Amare did. J-Kidd did. Sean Livingston looked like a potential long term puzzle piece here last spring, three years after the worst documented knee injury in pro basketball. There's always injury risk, but guys are coming back from more than ever now.

If Ted is comfortable paying Gil $18M this year, then I am too comfortable with him doing so.

[Shanghai Kid]

To me, the Wizards are "rebuilding", but if they are good enough to make the playoffs next year, they are going to try to continue to make the playoffs every year. For them to make the playoffs does everything from getting young players a taste of winning, to increasing team revenue, and to becoming a more attractive destination for free agents.

I really think too many people are assuming the Wiz are going to win 30 games next year and continue building through the draft. Yes, it's possible. But it's also possible they win 42 games, and at that point your draft position isn't as important.

A true rebuilding team would be going into the season with no Gilbert. But, it looks like we are going into the season with Gilbert on the roster. That makes things a little bit more unpredictable than some would iike to admit. The Wiz have a shot at being more competitive than what you would want from a rebuilding team.

"Build up his trade value and trade him for an expiring", really? How is that going to work if Gil is putting up 25/5/5 and the team is headed for the playoffs? Do you think thats going to be so easy for the fan base to digest if they re-accept Gilbert, watch him help lead us to the playoffs, and than dump him for the sake of the rebuilding proccess?

"But it's John Wall's team, he's the superstar, the main event, the frachise player." Sure, probably, but we don't know for sure yet. How do we know that Wall is going to be better than Gilbert in the next few years? What if Wall really is Rondo? Is Rondo a number one option on a playoff team? A healthy Gilbert Arenas can be a little bit better than some people here think.

But, these are the questions that will only be answered by the season itself. What we know is that barring a good reasonable offer, Gilbert will be on the roster come training camp. He can really dictate his own destiny based on how he plays. I believe the team really will be hesitant to trade him if he's an All-Star again.

[Ruzious]

Boy do I hate these hypotheticals. My question then would be if Vince Carter was a FA, would you pursue him for a 2 year, 35 million deal (with a $4 million buyout clause on the 2nd year) and also possibly give up a 1st round draft pick in order to sign him?

C'mon WizStorm. You're better than that. Your analogy is completely false. We're not talking about signing Vince Carter with raw cap space to a $35M deal. We're talking about exchanging Gil's $80M salary obligation for Vince Carter's $22M salary obligation.

My point was to explore JJ's assertion that Arenas is the PERFECT fit. I was trying to get him to examine his thoughts more carefully to see if he would reassess that evaluation.

Just trying to clarify: would the $4 million buyout count against the cap? Would the Wizards be under the cap in 2012 and beyond after Blatche and McGee are up for their extensions.

Good question - because it's a mistake to assume the answer is yes even for next year. Just looking at the 2011/2012 numbers here http://hoopshype.com/salaries/washington.htm that's $53 mil if they keep the players they currently have - and that number just includes 9 players - it doesn't include Seraphin, Armstrong, or anyone else they may sign before this season - and obviously doesn't include next year's 1st rounder. There are things they can do to reduce the number - like not re-signing Yi, Thornton, and Young - and possibly trading Hinrich for a current season expiring, but no - we can't assume there will be space to sign a max free agent next year. And the year after, it'll take big money to keep both Blatche and McGee. Talented bigs always get paid in free agency, and they're talented young bigs.

[LyricalRico]

^ Well written, Shanghai. I agree that the Wiz do have "a shot" at being competitive next season, but I believe that it's far more likely that they are not. I'm simply playing the odds here. But even if they don't make the playoffs, I think this general point still applies:

"Build up his trade value and trade him for an expiring", really? How is that going to work if Gil is putting up 25/5/5 and the team is headed for the playoffs? Do you think thats going to be so easy for the fan base to digest if they re-accept Gilbert, watch him help lead us to the playoffs, and than dump him for the sake of the rebuilding proccess?

What if Gil is putting up 25/5/5 and the team only wins 30 games? What then? People will be clamoring that "see, he's back and can be productive with Wall" and the call will be for adding other pieces so the Wiz can be a playoff team. That's the outcome that scares me the most, because then we could begin using assets and cap space with a goal of simply getting to mediocre. That would pretty much mean that the pain of the last two seasons was all for nothing. And then if Ted/Ernie don't do it and stick with the longterm view, they'll be accused of not wanting to win and wasting Gil's prime.

I just think the majority of the possible Gil scenarios will end up being a net negative:

- the team and Gil are both bad
- the team is decent but Gil is bad
- the team is bad but Gil is good

The only way that keeping Gil results in a positive IMO is if both he and the team are good next year, which I think is asking for too much. Of course, you can still argue that letting the season play out could create a better trade scenario for the team. But again, if Gil really is putting up numbers, the outcry will still be to keep him. And then you'll even have the crowd that will feel that Ted betrayed him by welcoming him only so he could build up his value to trade later.

I guess my point is that the only way this doesn't end badly is to either trade him now, or for Gil to lead this team to the playoffs in his first season. Again, I'm just playing the odds. Could the Wizards make the playoffs, attract some free agents next season and make serious strides sooner rather than later? Sure, anything's possible. But I think it's far more likely (as in 99% more likely) that this ends poorly and I'd rather just cut my losses now.

[Wizardspride]

Rico, it sounds like you're a proponent of trading Gil primarily due to "a fear of the unknown".

Am I that far off base?

[Hoopalotta]

Ruz & Kanye,

The salary layout:

If we did move Gil for Vince this season, we'd probably be on the books for around $30.5-$32.5 million for the 2012 season. That's with Carter for $4 million, which does count - along with Hinriki, Wall, Blatche, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, the 2011 pick and the requisite number of minimum cap holds. That is renouncing Young, Thronton and Yi, though. The exact figure would depend on our draft pick and that also affects the later years too.

If you plug in Blatche and McGee at a combined $20 million in 2013 and add another draft pick, we're probably in the range of about $37-$39 million for that season (the roster is the same except we lose Hinklerick). I think it's safe to plug that draft pick as being more like $2 million-ish at this point.

The year after that, 2014, we might be somewhere around $43-$46 million (that's counting Blatche and McGee at flat salaries that don't increase, so still at $20 million). That's Wall, Dray, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, 2011 1st, 2012 1st, 2013 1st and 4 minimum cap holds.

I think it's pretty safe to say you'd have max slots through the 2013 season, though obviously that changes if you bite into it and we don't know the exact cap figures. The Dray and McGee numbers are a variable too, but $20 million a year under the new CBA isn't a terrible guess.

Edit to add --> OK, I see the question is also how much space do we have if we keep Gil. If we plug in $2 million for the 1st rounder and renounce the restricted guys (Young, Yi and Thornton), we're just over $45 million committed (with the minimum cap holds accounted for). Hard to predict what that means with the new CBA coming as wild alterations could happen, including potentially existing contracts being forcibly decreased.

[AceDegenerate]

^ Well written, Shanghai. I agree that the Wiz do have "a shot" at being competitive next season, but I believe that it's far more likely that they are not. I'm simply playing the odds here. But even if they don't make the playoffs, I think this general point still applies:

"Build up his trade value and trade him for an expiring", really? How is that going to work if Gil is putting up 25/5/5 and the team is headed for the playoffs? Do you think thats going to be so easy for the fan base to digest if they re-accept Gilbert, watch him help lead us to the playoffs, and than dump him for the sake of the rebuilding proccess?

What if Gil is putting up 25/5/5 and the team only wins 30 games? What then? People will be clamoring that "see, he's back and can be productive with Wall" and the call will be for adding other pieces so the Wiz can be a playoff team. That's the outcome that scares me the most, because then we could begin using assets and cap space with a goal of simply getting to mediocre. That would pretty much mean that the pain of the last two seasons was all for nothing. And then if Ted/Ernie don't do it and stick with the longterm view, they'll be accused of not wanting to win and wasting Gil's prime.

I just think the majority of the possible Gil scenarios will end up being a net negative:

- the team and Gil are both bad
- the team is decent but Gil is bad
- the team is bad but Gil is good

The only way that keeping Gil results in a positive IMO is if both he and the team are good next year, which I think is asking for too much. Of course, you can still argue that letting the season play out could create a better trade scenario for the team. But again, if Gil really is putting up numbers, the outcry will still be to keep him. And then you'll even have the crowd that will feel that Ted betrayed him by welcoming him only so he could build up his value to trade later.

I guess my point is that the only way this doesn't end badly is to either trade him now, or for Gil to lead this team to the playoffs in his first season. Again, I'm just playing the odds. Could the Wizards make the playoffs, attract some free agents next season and make serious strides sooner rather than later? Sure, anything's possible. But I think it's far more likely (as in 99% more likely) that this ends poorly and I'd rather just cut my losses now.

Great, and I think it's 99% likely the Wizards make the playoffs next year with Gilbert.

See how the subjective percentage game works?

[Ruzious]

I'm on board with ya, Hoopa. The numbers I quotated were with Arenas on the rooster.

[JonathanJoseph]

Nate33,

I don't disagree with most of what you say, but your entire take is based on the conclusion that "a $20M per year Arenas is not a good fit for this team". While that may be possible, I think it is unlikely and probably not the case. I think it is more likely that Wall/Arenas are the PERFECT complements.

Are you saying that if Arenas was an unrestricted free agent this summer, you would actively pursue him and sign him a 4-year, $20M contract?

Ah. Good question and I agree that context is everything.

The short answer (and I'm assuming you meant $20M/year) is probably not. Not in a vaccum. But I do think that the market value for a non-gungate Gil would have been in the $15M/year range or more.

But I still think the context matters here at a deeper level. When I say that Arenas might be the PERFECT complement, I am speaking strictly "on the court". One of the NBA's best finishers AND 3pt shooters playing next to an uber-quick, pass first PG who makes players around him better? I think this has a good chance of becoming the NBA's best backcourt, and maybe very soon.

If that's the case, then I look at my elite starting backcourt as under contract for $22M-$26M COMBINED. This is far less salary cap space than went to Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen last year. Heck, that's less money than the Chris Paul/David West combo made last season.

So my bottom line is, while Gil is and will remain overpaid (either a little or a lot), if it works out, it will be well worth the few extra bucks in cap space. If that becomes an elite backcourt, and Blatche and McGee are going to be what I think they are, Teddy will have NO PROBLEM going over the luxury tax line to resign them (Notice how Grunfeld has stockpiled $9M in cash in recent trades?) and the Wiz championship core will be here ALREADY. Add in a Shane Battier-type at the MLE and it's all good.

So yes, add all the context in and I have no problem paying Arenas the money until I find out he's not the ideal fit to play next to Wall.