Official Trade Thread XIV: 6/14/10 - 12/22/10

[nate33]

Arenas has played in 13,2, and 32 games respectfully over the course of the last three seasons. He has had major knee surgeries over the course of his NBA career. Luol Deng's injuries have not been major reoccurring type injuries.

I don't agree with you that Arenas is more likely to play in more games than Deng in the future.

Arenas played in 32 out of 32 games before the suspension. If anything, the suspension helped him rest and rehab even more so he's stronger this year. Microfracture surgeries take a while to heal, but once healing is complete, it's generally a full recovery. Look at Jason Kidd and Amare Stoudemire for examples.

Like I said, it's really pure speculation either way. All we can really say is that both Arenas and Deng are probably greater injury risks than an average NBA player. There's no way of knowing who is the greater injury risk.

[pchrys3]

I think missing 50 games due to suspension is just as harmful to ones trade value as being injured. Both have missed their time due to injuries, I just wanted to see what the board's opinion was on a trade centered around Deng for Arenas. I doubt anything gets done, and knowing our front office, I'm not sure they would target someone like Gilbert, especially for someone like Deng who they seem to really like.

[Kanyewest]

The Wizards don't really gain any financial flexibility given that Deng's deal expires in 4 years like Arenas's deal. Yes Arenas has been injured in the past, but Deng is also injury prone. The Wizards need shooters and Deng can't knock down 3 pointers which is a reason why Chicago would prefer Arenas over Deng IMO.

[nate33]

I think missing 50 games due to suspension is just as harmful to ones trade value as being injured. Both have missed their time due to injuries, I just wanted to see what the board's opinion was on a trade centered around Deng for Arenas. I doubt anything gets done, and knowing our front office, I'm not sure they would target someone like Gilbert, especially for someone like Deng who they seem to really like.

It's not about perceived trade value. I don't care what the consensus trade value is for Arenas. It's about predictable future performance relative to price. I predict that Arenas' performance to price ratio will exceed that of Deng's over the next 4 years. Therefore, I wouldn't do this trade.

[Ruzious]

I think missing 50 games due to suspension is just as harmful to ones trade value as being injured. Both have missed their time due to injuries, I just wanted to see what the board's opinion was on a trade centered around Deng for Arenas. I doubt anything gets done, and knowing our front office, I'm not sure they would target someone like Gilbert, especially for someone like Deng who they seem to really like.

It's not about perceived trade value. I don't care what the consensus trade value is for Arenas. It's about predictable future performance relative to price. I predict that Arenas' performance to price ratio will exceed that of Deng's over the next 4 years. Therefore, I wouldn't do this trade.

I'd factor in Deng's superiority in defense more prominently, but I think you have a reasonable basis for your conclusion.

[nate33]

Assuming we intend to keep Arenas for the long haul, which eliminates any grand cap space schemes, would you consider this trade:

Washington trades: Kirk Hinrich
Atlanta trades: Marvin Williams

Williams plays good D and is a marginal 3 point shooter (35% two seasons ago, 30% last year). He just turned 24 and is locked into a decent contract when compared to guys like Deng, Butler, Outlaw, RJeff, etc. He's a very good athlete with great length and is the type of player who fits well into the running team we're trying to build.

The trade saves us $1.7M instantly and allows Arenas to spend more time at PG, which frees up room for Nick Young to play more SG (something I stubbornly insist would help this team).

Our lineup:
PG Wall/Arenas
SG Arenas/Young
SF Williams/Thornton
PF Blatche/Yi
C McGee/Seraphin
Deep Bench: Booker, Armstrong, C.Martin, 3rd string PG, N'Diaye

Marvin Williams' stats for his career:

Code: Select all

williams,  PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO  3P%  TS%  PER
2009-10   12.3  6.2  1.4  1.0  0.7  1.1 .303 .540 13.0
2008-09   15.1  6.8  1.4  1.0  0.7  1.2 .355 .569 16.0
2007-08   15.7  6.1  1.8  1.1  0.4  1.7 .100 .540 14.5
2006-07   14.3  5.8  2.0  0.9  0.5  2.2 .244 .509 12.3
2005-06   12.8  7.3  1.2  0.9  0.5  1.6 .245 .523 12.3

He had a down year last year, but the Marvin Williams of 08/09 is a real good fit on our roster.

I'm experiencing deja vu. Have I suggested this trade before?

[Benjammin]

Assuming we intend to keep Arenas for the long haul, which eliminates any grand cap space schemes, would you consider this trade:

Washington trades: Kirk Hinrich
Atlanta trades: Marvin Williams

Williams plays good D and is a marginal 3 point shooter (35% two seasons ago, 30% last year). He just turned 24 and is locked into a decent contract when compared to guys like Deng, Butler, Outlaw, RJeff, etc. He's a very good athlete with great length and is the type of player who fits well into the running team we're trying to build.

The trade saves us $1.7M instantly and allows Arenas to spend more time at PG, which frees up room for Nick Young to play more SG (something I stubbornly insist would help this team).

Our lineup:
PG Wall/Arenas
SG Arenas/Young
SF Williams/Thornton
PF Blatche/Yi
C McGee/Seraphin
Deep Bench: Booker, Armstrong, C.Martin, 3rd string PG, N'Diaye

Marvin Williams' stats for his career:

Code: Select all

williams,  PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO  3P%  TS%  PER
2009-10   12.3  6.2  1.4  1.0  0.7  1.1 .303 .540 13.0
2008-09   15.1  6.8  1.4  1.0  0.7  1.2 .355 .569 16.0
2007-08   15.7  6.1  1.8  1.1  0.4  1.7 .100 .540 14.5
2006-07   14.3  5.8  2.0  0.9  0.5  2.2 .244 .509 12.3
2005-06   12.8  7.3  1.2  0.9  0.5  1.6 .245 .523 12.3

He had a down year last year, but the Marvin Williams of 08/09 is a real good fit on our roster.

I'm experiencing deja vu. Have I suggested this trade before?

I wouldn't hesitate to make that deal. Williams is younger, has more upside, and is at a bigger position of need than Hinrich. However, I don't see the motivation for the Hawks to make that deal. They have Bibby signed through 2012 and Marvin's deal is very reasonable, especially for a young, talented guy.

[fishercob]

What's Atlanta's incentive? They have Bibby, Crawford, Crawford and Teague.

I think I'd want to see what I really have in Thornton and Booker before making that deal. If one of those guys (I'm more hopeful for Booker) shows the potential to be a long term solution, I think I'd shy away from this.

I'll tell you what. As negative as I've been on Nick Young, I hope he has a great season. And I hope Wall and Gilbert make sweet music and Lester Hudson (great piece on thruthaboutit) makes the team and sticks as a rotation guard. Because if some or all of that happen, we can trade Hinrich for expirings and open up some options.

[nate33]

Reports are that Atlanta has been trying to dump Williams to save money so they're definitely open to moving him. I don't know if they'd move him for Hinrich, but it's worth noting that Bibby sucks. He's perhaps the worst defensive PG in the league and his offense has fallen off a cliff as well (PER was 12.7 last year).

I suppose another option would be to trade a TPE for him. We have the cap room to do it.

[fishercob]

It's a shame Sacramento is such a bad trade partner for us. The guy I want as our long term small forward is Casspi. He's got Tayshaun Prince written all over him but he's 22 and mega cheap.

I doubt they'd consider something like Udrih (runs through 12-13) and Casspi for Hinrich, but I'd be all over that. I'd even be tempted to throw in a pick, but I know Ted wouldn't...

Hey, they just inked Pooh Jeter, so maybe they're more inclined to move Udrih for a vet like Hinrich.

[Ruzious]

Reports are that Atlanta has been trying to dump Williams to save money so they're definitely open to moving him. I don't know if they'd move him for Hinrich, but it's worth noting that Bibby sucks. He's perhaps the worst defensive PG in the league and his offense has fallen off a cliff as well (PER was 12.7 last year).

I suppose another option would be to trade a TPE for him. We have the cap room to do it.

Yeah, Bibby's regressed so far that it wouldn't surprise me if they come to some retirement settlement.

Williams is a solid role player. I don't think he'll ever be more than that. Otoh, mabye we wouldn't need him to be, but I wouldn't be particularly excited to get him.

[Dat2U]

^ What are the other alternatives? The team can be a contender with Gil and Blatche and two of the main cogs? In that case, you're right. I should have used a different emoticon...

Hold on a sec. Did you know the guy you basically worship, Ernie Grunfeld bought both of these guys to DC and surely thought he could build a contender with these two as main cogs? Now your laughing at that notion???

I don't think Ernie would be very happy with you right now.

[Dat2U]

Assuming we intend to keep Arenas for the long haul, which eliminates any grand cap space schemes, would you consider this trade:

Washington trades: Kirk Hinrich
Atlanta trades: Marvin Williams

Just because some of us want to keep Arenas for now does not mean we should completely abandon the idea of cap flexibility.

Trading for Williams, a very average SF on a long term deal, seems like a one way ticket down a slippery slope. Just b/c were willing to keep one bad contract (for now, with emphasis on the NOW part) doesn't mean we should be looking to add a 2nd or a 3rd bad contract into the mix. Williams isn't going to demonstratively make our team better, its just a typical 'smoke all your cap room away b/c the money is burning a hole in your pocket' type deal.

[LyricalRico]

Whoa there, Dat. Saying that Wal+Arenas+Blatche doesn't equal contender isn't the same as saying they never should have been acquired at all. Yes, I think it's time for the Wiz and Gil to part ways but that doesn't mean Grunfeld shouldn't have signed him in the first place.

As for Blatche, I never said he couldn't be useful. He's certainly worth his current salary and should absolutely be a starter. But I still consider him to be a complimentary player, not a first or second option on a championship team. Still, I'd say that drafting a guy in the second round and developing him into a capable starter is a feather in any GM's cap.

[Dat2U]

Whoa there, Dat. Saying that Wal+Arenas+Blatche doesn't equal contender isn't the same as saying they never should have been acquired at all. Yes, I think it's time for the Wiz and Gil to part ways but that doesn't mean Grunfeld shouldn't have signed him in the first place.

As for Blatche, I never said he couldn't be useful. He's certainly worth his current salary and should absolutely be a starter. But I still consider him to be a complimentary player, not a first or second option on a championship team. Still, I'd say that drafting a guy in the second round and developing him into a capable starter is a feather in any GM's cap.

Wall + Arenas + Blatche alone doesn't equal contender but who says who a couple of additional pieces that couldn't be the case? Blatche now as the roster is currently constructed is a 3rd option at best. I think most of us all agree on Blatche. I don't see him as 1st/2nd option on a championship team either. But I believe he can be a starter on a championship team if he focused more on the defensive end of the court.

[Silvie Lysandra]

...why can't be he be a 2nd or solid 3rd option on a championship team? He's a poor man's Webber (except at least somewhat more mature actually) with better D; whose numbers are deflated from playing out of position most of his career. And he's 23.

He might never be a superstar, but his upside is that of a borderline All-Star player in his prime.

[Benjammin]

Assuming we intend to keep Arenas for the long haul, which eliminates any grand cap space schemes, would you consider this trade:

Washington trades: Kirk Hinrich
Atlanta trades: Marvin Williams

Just because some of us want to keep Arenas for now does not mean we should completely abandon the idea of cap flexibility.

Trading for Williams, a very average SF on a long term deal, seems like a one way ticket down a slippery slope. Just b/c were willing to keep one bad contract (for now, with emphasis on the NOW part) doesn't mean we should be looking to add a 2nd or a 3rd bad contract into the mix. Williams isn't going to demonstratively make our team better, its just a typical 'smoke all your cap room away b/c the money is burning a hole in your pocket' type deal.

I don't think the Hawks would go for a Hinrich deal anyway, so it really doesn't matter. I understand that under the Dat doctrine (don't sign average players to close to MLE or higher contracts for multiple years) Williams would not be a good acquisition. However, playing devil's advocate for a moment, he is still young (24). He plays good defense. He rebounds reasonably well. He is good on the break. His three point shooting is questionable, though. He's not a particularly good ball handler. He'll never be a dynamic scorer. Guys in his salary range include Jared Jeffries, Jason Kapono, Andres Nocioni, and James Posey. That doesn't mean one bad deal deserves another. I would have to think long and hard about it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

It's a shame Sacramento is such a bad trade partner for us. The guy I want as our long term small forward is Casspi. He's got Tayshaun Prince written all over him but he's 22 and mega cheap.

I doubt they'd consider something like Udrih (runs through 12-13) and Casspi for Hinrich, but I'd be all over that. I'd even be tempted to throw in a pick, but I know Ted wouldn't...

Hey, they just inked Pooh Jeter, so maybe they're more inclined to move Udrih for a vet like Hinrich.

I think Battier for Hinrich gives Prince-like defense and a near-term SF who should be good enough for the next 2-3 years.

[Hoopalotta]

Houston would never do Battier for Hiney. They might potentially consider Battier for a TPE in order to get closer to the tax line and save $15 million, but they don't need another point guard on a multi-year deal as they're already crunched for minutes there. It would also cost them about $3 million too.

[WizStorm]

I don't think there is much chance that Hinrich will get traded now that he's FINALLY about to have his introductory press conference:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizard ... duced.html

Kirk Hinrich to get introduced on Monday
The Wizards will finally introduce Kirk Hinrich on Monday, more than a month after they agreed with Chicago to acquire the veteran combo guard and about three weeks after the deal was completed.

"We've always like Kirk, his grittiness, his toughness. He's an outstanding defender," Grunfeld said after the trade was finally approved. "I think with Kirk, you get a solid veteran player who's played both guard spots. He's played with the No. 1 pick before. He's a tough, gritty, hard-nosed competitor and I think he could fit in well with both John and Gilbert."

I heard that Hinrich initially didn't handle the trade very well, which is understandable since he had spent the past seven seasons in Chicago -- not far from his native Sioux City, Iowa -- and experienced some success with the Bulls. The night before he was officially dealt, Hinrich told reporters in Chicago that he was "excited to move on to a new opportunity" in Washington but he still appeared to be a little conflicted.

Hinrich stopped by Verizon Center a few weeks ago take his physical and catch of glimpse of Wall and some of his future teammates during summer league minicamp. He had to head to a wedding the next day. In one of his rare interviews since the deal, Hinrich told the Chicago Tribune, "I'm excited and motivated for the opportunity. I hope it works out for the Bulls. I really enjoyed my seven seasons there. To get drafted by the Bulls and have the opportunity to grow as player, I had a blast. I tried to play hard for the fans."

And now he has some new ones to impress in a familiar No. 12 jersey.