Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

[DCZards]

I think another one of my concerns is with the idea of devoting so many resources to the backcourt and so few resources to the frontcourt. It feels instinctively wrong to me. I've never seen a contending team constructed with it's two best players being guards.

Guards Isiah T. and J. Dumars were the two best players on the Pistons. And they not only contended they won two championships.

[Ruzious]

Sort of like how Gilbert stunted Andray Blatche's growth Post-Trade Deadline last season by texting him before and after every practice and game right?

It's these exact claims that I am referencing when I mentioned the unjust criticism Gilbert has been getting from Wizards fans.

From what I can tell, Krizko, the doubt and criticism about GA and his future with the Zards are almost entirely on this board. Most of the Zards fans and season ticket holders I come in contact with are ecstatic about GA returning and playing next to Wall..

I think pretty much the entire local media - other than Mike Wise - has been very skeptical about Arenas playing with Wall - not that there are any geniuses among them.

[DCZards]

I think pretty much the entire local media - other than Mike Wise - has been very skeptical about Arenas playing with Wall - not that there are any geniuses among them.

The "entire local media"? Like who, those jerks on the Sports Reporters. Haven't heard much skepticism, otherwise.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think another one of my concerns is with the idea of devoting so many resources to the backcourt and so few resources to the frontcourt. It feels instinctively wrong to me. I've never seen a contending team constructed with it's two best players being guards. This also relates to a point Doc often makes about guards getting too good too quickly and vaulting the team up to 45-win purgatory before there's an opportunity to draft franchise-caliber big men.

Good point, but

One thing to consider though - I might argue that there has not been a true franchise-caliber big drafted since 2004 (though the jury is out on a lot of guys). Even guys like Amare, Bosh, Gasol are *well* short of a prime Duncan, Shaq, KG, Dirk or even the second tier of great bigs - Webber, Ewing, Mourning, guys like that. And even a guy like Gasol was closer to a 7'0 version of Jamison before he got to LA. And personally, if Blatche maintains his performance as a starter last year, he's already on the cusp of being a franchise big. And as we all know, Chris Webber was no paragon of hustle and work ethic. If Blatche = C-Webb, then I have no problem committing to him.

The fact is, of the titles this decade that featured dominant bigs, 4 of them were won by a guy drafted in 1992, 4 won by guys drafted in 1996. The other two was won by a guy drafted in 2001, and hadn't won a GAME in the playoffs without Kobe and Phil.

With Arenas, there will be very little chance of ever obtaining a high enough pick to get a good big, and teams almost never trade good bigs.

I'd argue this was the case the moment we drafted Wall.

Wall is being considered a once in a generation PG prospect. In addition, he was a top pick in the draft. Well, let's see first, the impact elite PG prospects have on their teams as *rookies*, and second, the impact quality #1 picks have on their teams as rookies.

PGs:

2005 Hornets: +18 games from last year
2005 Jazz: +15 games from last year
2008 Bulls +8 from previous year
2009 Bucks +12 from previous years.

For goodness sake the Bobcats were +7 after they drafted Felton!

The only exceptions were Russel Westbrook (who was considered a major project at the time, and not even a pure PG), on a team that had Durant, Green, and literally nothing else, and Stephon Curry, whose team was devastated by injury like no team in recent memory. We have *far* more talent than those teams even without Arenas.

Meanwhile, let's look at #1 picks that panned out

Yao Ming + 15
LeBron James + 18 (Wade, Bosh, and Melo would be #1s in other years, so will include them just because - +17, +7, and +27 respectively)
Dwight Howard + 15
Bogut + 10
Bargnani (arguably a bust bust still +20)

Durant is an interesting case - he's minus -10, but SEA/OKC had blown it up, trading Allen and Lewis. Obviously Oden didn't play.

Rose + 8, as above.

Obviously Griffin didn't play, but Evans, as the only impact rookie from last year's class, was +8, and they had started strong, and might have better if Martin was healthy.

So based on the track record, if we are in the high lottery yet again, we either got racked by injuries, or we have much bigger problems than Arenas making us too good, because it means Wall isn't ready and/or Blatche and McGee have stagnated or regressed.

Impact rookies make immediate and significant improvements in team win totals and even if it doesn't vault them into the playoffs, it does take them well over the 30 win mark in most cases.

So basically, the scenario where dumping Arenas puts in the high lottery, assumes Wall, Blatche, McGee, Booker, Seraphin, and even Young are busts.

Real nice post, Chaos.

I think Blatche, McGee, Young, and Gil if he's here will all be adjusted to Flip's system. No more learning curve for them this year. Flip's got a lot more leadership, length, and athleticism with this group. Also, the Wizards lost tough games they had no business losing last year. I believe things like that average out over time. They'll win games they've got no business winning is my guess how it goes this season.

I believe it is not out of the question Wall's rookie season sees a +20 improvement. I expect the Wizards to win 40-45 games, but 46-50 isn't out of the question. Last season the Wizards were 26-56. This season they could win 46 games if they really put it together. That would be Wall's +20.

At the very least, a +10 year and 36 wins should be about the floor to how well this team does.

[LyricalRico]

Impact rookies make immediate and significant improvements in team win totals and even if it doesn't vault them into the playoffs, it does take them well over the 30 win mark in most cases.

So basically, the scenario where dumping Arenas puts in the high lottery, assumes Wall, Blatche, McGee, Booker, Seraphin, and even Young are busts.

Very well researched and well stated argument. I'll have to chew on this for a while.

[Kanyewest]

Kwame Brown - +18 FTW.

BTW, it's funny that Bargs is +20 but also have to look at the fact that Bosh developed, Jose Calderon in place of Mike James, and Anthony Parker's arrival.

[LyricalRico]

Kwame Brown - +18 FTW.

Yeah that's more like MJ = +18, which could have been higher if it weren't for Kwame. LOL

[no D in Hibachi]

Nice post Chaos, I think the Wall effect plus the development of Blatche and McGee will cause about a 10 game improvement from last year. If they were 36-46 this year they would have ended up with the 11th pick, or there abouts. I understand the future flexibility element with dumping Arenas; however, it is unlikely they'll be bad enough to get a top lotto selection. It seems like many posters believe that dumping Arenas will make the team bad enough that they'll surely get a high pick. I don't see how that's possible unless they have another injury plauged season because the Wizards have improved and a lot of other teams have gotten significantly worse.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think another one of my concerns is with the idea of devoting so many resources to the backcourt and so few resources to the frontcourt. It feels instinctively wrong to me. I've never seen a contending team constructed with it's two best players being guards.

Guards Isiah T. and J. Dumars were the two best players on the Pistons. And they not only contended they won two championships.

Washington really has a similar team to the Bad Boys. Blatche doesn't have the meanness of Bill Laimbeer, but Andray can hit shots and rebound. Javale's better than John Salley but similar in that he's an emotional shotblocker. Seraphin can be the Rick Mahorn type player. The Wizards lack a young Rodman. (Kenneth Faried, this draft, no brainer.) Nick Young and Kirk Hinrich off the bench give them better depth than the Bad Boys.

What needs to happen is the Wizards improve a couple seasons under Flip but then get a marquee coach to take them to the top. Daly had the Pistons play a very chippy brand of ball. That's what this group will need eventually.

For now, I think they need to keep Gil with Wall so they can have an Isaih/Joe D type backcourt.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nice post Chaos, I think the Wall effect plus the development of Blatche and McGee will cause about a 10 game improvement from last year. If they were 36-46 this year they would have ended up with the 11th pick, or there abouts. I understand the future flexibility element with dumping Arenas; however, it is unlikely they'll be bad enough to get a top lotto selection. It seems like many posters believe that dumping Arenas will make the team bad enough that they'll surely get a high pick. I don't see how that's possible unless they have another injury plauged season because the Wizards have improved and a lot of other teams have gotten significantly worse.

I say keep Arenas and try to win 50.

If the Wizards trade Gil and get 36 wins, I hope they get Faried for SF. I think he's Rodman-esque. Definitely will be on the board at 11 and I hope they pick him.

[LyricalRico]

Washington really has a similar team to the Bad Boys.

Sorry CCJ, but you lost me there.

[wizards-fan]

I have forgiven Arenas and believe he should stay and redeem himself by being a good teammate and mentor ... but equally important he's got to be Wall's most lethal weapon on the court. To develop properly Wall needs weapons, inside and outside -- he can't be the primary scoring option. With Jamison and Butler gone, Gilbert can go back to doing what he does best: be a 30ppg scorer. No one will complain, and all he needs to do is allow Wall to set him up with easy dimes. The fact that Arenas can handle the ball to take the pressure off is a huge plus, as is the fact that they will be one of the fastest backcourts in the NBA - yet with two 6-4 players. Keep Arenas and let's try to win some damn games.

[no D in Hibachi]

Washington really has a similar team to the Bad Boys.

Sorry CCJ, but you lost me there.

Yeah, the only bad boy potential player the Wiz have is Seraphin, maybe Booker if he becomes a crash forward.

[JWizmentality]

Washington really has a similar team to the Bad Boys.

Sorry CCJ, but you lost me there.

I see the Thomas and Dumars similarities. We have no Rodman, but who knows about Booker? Bill and Mahorn comparable to Blatche and McGee. No way...Dray and JaVale are way better.

[montestewart]

Washington really has a similar team to the Bad Boys.

Sorry CCJ, but you lost me there.

Yeah, I think no Laimbeer or Rodman would make the Wizards the Wanna-Be-Bad Boys.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Washington really has a similar team to the Bad Boys.

Sorry CCJ, but you lost me there.

It's just because you're so young, LR.

I remember Isaih Thomas in college. IU beat the Terps the year the Hoosiers won the NCAA. Reggie Jackson at UMCP got a lot of hype back in the day, but he was no match for Isaih Thomas. Only us graybeards recall that.

The IU PG who went on to become a Bad Boy was really good, and you probably recall how much so.

Looking right now at the guy who I wanted to hate on but cannot, John Wall is bigger and a little faster than Thomas. He's not nearly the ball handler. Not as good a shooter, but better at the rim. Wall has better end-to-end speed and I'd rate him superior physically to Isaih. Thus, part of my similar to Bad Boys comment had to do with Wall.

Arenas is better to much better offensively than Joe Dumars but much, much, much worse defensively. The player who can drop 60 Arenas is better than the player who got to the HOF but probably doesn't deserve to be there, Dumars. (Dennis Johnson, R.I.P., better player than Joe D and not in the hall. That is a travesty). I can compare Gil to Joe D.

LR, I really do believe the Wizards have a similar makeup to the old Bad Boy Pistons. Detroit couldn't get past Boston for a while, but they did once they got chippy. They really frustrated MJ back in the day.

Washington's going to frustrate some teams if they keep Gil with Wall.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Washington really has a similar team to the Bad Boys.

Sorry CCJ, but you lost me there.

I see the Thomas and Dumars similarities. We have no Rodman, but who knows about Booker? Bill and Mahorn comparable to Blatche and McGee. No way...Dray and JaVale are way better.

We also have no Dantley/Mark Agguire, barring a return of a healthy Josh Howard on a reasonably cheap deal.

Javale and Andray are way softer. They don't knock anybody into the cheap seats. McGee could have been a Show Time Laker. Runs and finishes like Worthy. (And he's working on having Kareem's Sky Hook.) The Wizards bigs being so young, JWiz, leads me to suspect you're right; they are better than Bill and Mahorn. They just need to get nasty.

A big man coach like Mahorn or Kareem Abdul Jabbar could do them a world of good. I also think Kermit Washington could help.

[AceDegenerate]

Joe Dumars was the NBADraft.net comparison for Gilbert Arenas coming out of Arizona.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

They better not trade (edited) Gilbert.

[montestewart]

Great post, Chaos Revenant, a really nice counterpoint to the "tank again, for real this time " approach.

Some people advocating an Arenas trade seem to see the impossibility of tanking just as you do, and look instead to using cap space to acquire additional picks through BOYD trades or to make space for FA acquisitions.

Also, glad that DCZards threw the bad Boy Pistons in there. There are more likely models of championship teams, but there's no single formula, and as a number of people on this board have observed the tremendous difficulty in assembling a championship caliber team and the degree of luck involved, it's worth pausing and considering those long odds before discarding a player that could be part of a winning formula.