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Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#901 » by Hoopalotta » Sun Jul 25, 2010 4:07 am

montestewart wrote:
gesa2 wrote:I'll be surprised if we win more than 35 games next year, but it will be infinitely better to watch us lose playing hard playing as a team and trying to find our selves than it was to watch us lose the way we did last year before the trades.

I get the feeling a lot of people around here feel the same.


Honestly, towards the end, that veteran team was just awful to watch even in victory. I remember one particular game - maybe late January at the Verizon - and they pulled out the game in the 4th with Butler then giving his fist pump in the air, but in a completely hollow and emotionless manner.

Not to blame anyone in particular, but watching those guys go through the motions and pull one out was worse than that 16 game losing streak with the kids.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#902 » by Kanyewest » Sun Jul 25, 2010 5:51 am

Chaos Revenant wrote:Again, I reiterate that losing Butler, Miller, Foye, and Jamison were addition by subtraction. Butler and Miller were both below average while Blatche had surpassed Jamison starting from about game 1. Haywood is the only real loss here that would actually have a negative impact on the W&L record.


Yes and no. I believe that the losses are only addition by subtraction because Flip Saunders was misusing them. Someone like Caron Butler was not a catch and shoot player; and he didn't need to since he generally made good decisions when he was allowed to handle the ball (over 4 apg the previous two season). Although it is possible he just regressed, it's not like his assists numbers were up when he was in Dallas. Jamison was alright but not for 40 minutes per game; perhaps people would have complained less if he saw 28 mpg. Foye should have played more at the shooting guard or scoring point guard (and let Butler/Miller become facilitators of the offense when he came in off the game)- problem with him of course is that he was playing injured last season and like Arenas, being made it into a pass first pg which he wasn't.

At the end of the day, I feel that Flip mismanged his roster a lot and hopefully he can learn from his mistakes. Perhaps it was too good to be true for Arenas to become a pass first point guard (I believe his assist to turnover ratio in his final two games in 20082009 was 20-1 and of course one of those games was inflated because we had to beat the Queen).

It was harder for any of their young guys (Blatche, Young, McGee) to find a consistent play out there without consistent playing time. Flip became more like Ed Tapscott, in a refusal to let the young guys play through mistakes, but letting guys like Jamison and Butler play though them.

I also think Flip is poor at making in game decisions on the fly. Perhaps this opinion is just based on the fact how he coached the Pistons back in 2007 when LeBron scored 25 points in game 5 of the 2007 team. Yes LeBron is a great player, but I'm surprised Flip defense couldn't even force someone else on the Cavs to beat the Pistons.

Yes the Wizards have better talent but will Flip use them correctly? If not, how long will it take Saunders to change his system? Didn't he only decide to change his system with 10-15 games left to go in the season? While Saunders seems like a brilliant mind, he does seem inflexible with his system, something that I didn't think was the case in Minnesotta. Or maybe the Wizards are just going to get guys that fit what Flip is going to do (although certainly that didn't apply to the offseason acquisitions last year with Foye and Miller who would have been more ideal for Eddie Jordan).
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#903 » by Hoopalotta » Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:27 am

fishercob wrote:1) Might Gil opt out with 2 years and $42M on his contract? Well, he's walked away from the final year of a deal before in an effort to get a long term deal. It's really going to depend what the CBA rules allow, but you could see a scenario where things are going well for Gil and the team and both sides want him here for the duration of his career. Maybe we sign him for 5 or 6 years at $70M-$90M and it's flat or declining. It's possible that could be attractive to both parties.


It's definitely worth mentioning, but I really see that as being party to a "honestly attack the top teams with Gil" after making a substantial move next offseason. It comes too late to afford flexibility for other assets, so it's more like "how to avoid or minimize the 2013" luxury tax.

I keep saying it in these threads: Much worse than the idea of keeping Gil is the idea of keeping Gil and pretending that we're patiently rebuilding. If you keep Gil, you attack Miami and forget all about OKC-ing it. The upside in acquisitions is just not there for extreme draft-centric patience.

So, not bad in that context. Maybe Gil would do something in the neighborhood of a four year $60 million dollar deal starting in 2013?

2) With Gil, Wall, Dray and McGee, the only starter "hole" is at SF. So if we upgrade up front one of those guys is in all likelihood going to be part of the package. Unless both guys "blow up," there's a reasonable chance that one won't be here for there next contract. Some team is going to be happy to pay one of those guys $10M a year if they're losing their superstar who wants $20M. The other corollary to this is Seraphin. If he's the real deal as a rotation-quality big, there's even more reason to use Blatche or McGee in a trade for an upgrade at SF, PF or C.


I can't say I'm very enthusiastic about the sounds of this as of now unless we're talking a very obvious upgrade. But, I don't know how a Young Big-for-Young Big trade is going to play out either; not optimistic.

All things being equal, I'd rather go "shock and awe" with a three man rotation at the power positions and make do at the small forward. Ideally, I'd like to plug a big club swinging lug who can jostle between the 4 and 5, which could be Seraphin, or it could be an acquisition like Dat was saying with Horford next year over in the Champ-ship thread. I wouldn't outright reject the idea of spending over $30 million on three players for those two positions either.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#904 » by doclinkin » Sun Jul 25, 2010 4:03 pm

Kanyewest wrote:. Perhaps it was too good to be true for Arenas to become a pass first point guard (I believe his assist to turnover ratio in his final two games in 20082009 was 20-1



In a system he had captained for 7 years, and spent large parts of 2 years watching from the sidelines from the coaching perspective, with players he had run with for thousands of game minutes, live and in practice. Whereas Gil's first year with the Wiz squad posted his worst asst/to record in his career. (Contrast with his numbers last year which was his 2nd best ast/to ratio of his career at close to 2:1, equivalent to DWade).

Continuity leads to chemistry. Gilbert may not be an instinctive pass-first PG, but he's a bright guy who lives and breathes basketball, he figures to improve in Flip's system when running the sets from the ball side. There's a learning curve when entering any new system, and Flip expects a great deal from his Points. John Wall will look good from the jump, but all the players will begin to improve by leaps and bounds. You saw things begin to iron out over the course of the year, once Flip got over his depression after realizing that his veterans wouldn't instinctively immediately pick up his system after running a radically different skill set for 4-7 years. Once Flip had young new high energy guys trying hard to learn the sets he actually began to coach instead of sulking -- and the team picked up, improved, looked more crisp.

Last year they implemented the Dynamic Four sets, funneling offense through Dray. These are the KG sets. This year they'll start with the guard sets that no one was willing or able to pick up: Mike Miller wouldn't shoot, Nick Young still likes to dribble into traffic before taking a shot since playground ball is where he has honed his skill set, all their other PG options were gunners without desire to make patient reads until Shawn came along. Shawn's non-threat from outside meant only that Flip could institute the Cassell package Guard Post-up game, but that's an add-on not a core concept.

Gil and Johnny Balls should pick up the motion attack pretty quickly now. Kirk Hinrich has a decent catch-and-shoot game as a back-up, Nick Young seemed to have good chemistry with Wall in summercamp, Cartier also gets the concepts. If you tell Gil his only job when off the ball is to get open then score, yeah, he can do that all game long. And to prevent the rookie Wall from impacting on the rookie wall Gilbert can carry the team from the alpha dribbler spot. Whomever is nearest the rebound gets the ball, the other gets to get out and go. Both Gil and Wall have proven able to share with another attack guard ballhandler. Our guard attack should develop quite nicely before we have opportunity to sinter a 'rehapilitated' Dray back into the meld. It will be good for the swift growth of a guy like JWall.

Dray's potential early absence means that we also get a chance to test and feature Big Kev with his gluetrap hands. I know John Wall will find him an enticing target down low. His game is far more similar to Big Cuz than JaVale's is, and he should prove to have good synergy with the returning Dray since their games each leave space for the other to do their thing. Until then JaVale may actually get to try on Dray's pants as the finesse Big (where he and his mom clearly see him totally becoming an absolute star, maybe they're right, he clearly has an aversion to the bang and grind). Eventually maybe we get interplay between the two like Dice next to Sheed, a two-man zone on defense, on offense interchangeable on-the-floor, not redundant.

But future to the side last year was a 'less than the sum of the parts' year. Caron and Jamison are an ill-fit for Flip's system. Caron is best with the ball in his hands and room to work, but having lost weight he can't overpower opponents in the post, and he's never been deft with the catch and shoot. Jamison's best role in Flip's offense should have been in the small forward/guard spot: running past screens ready to catch and shoot on first touch. He can't play the Garnett mid-post role because he never passes. Gilbert was steadily improving under the system, especially when running offball next to Boinkings where his role is similar to the EJ sets (score when the ball hits you), but defensively the system completely broke down as usual since Flip was trying to fit EJ's tweeners into roles poorly suited for what they do best. And longstanding habits tended to reassert themselves.

This year, key youngsters get continuity (Nick Young most importantly since his learning curve tends to be shallower than most, needs a long run-up). And John Wall enters a situation with fresh eyes ready to learn. I suspect we'll see better chemistry this year even with lesser accomplishment on the resume. Fact is it helps young players a ton to have veterans on the roster to show how the game is played, where the shortcuts are, how hard you have to work. For the sake of JaVale in particular (and Seraphin/N'Diaye) I just wish we had the equivalent of an Alonzo Mourning to exemplify the blowtorch intensity needed for success in the rebound moshpit.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#905 » by LyricalRico » Sun Jul 25, 2010 6:07 pm

doclinkin wrote:You saw things begin to iron out over the course of the year, once Flip got over his depression after realizing that his veterans wouldn't instinctively immediately pick up his system after running a radically different skill set for 4-7 years. Once Flip had young new high energy guys trying hard to learn the sets he actually began to coach instead of sulking -- and the team picked up, improved, looked more crisp.

Last year they implemented the Dynamic Four sets, funneling offense through Dray. These are the KG sets. This year they'll start with the guard sets that no one was willing or able to pick up: Mike Miller wouldn't shoot, Nick Young still likes to dribble into traffic before taking a shot since playground ball is where he has honed his skill set, all their other PG options were gunners without desire to make patient reads until Shawn came along. Shawn's non-threat from outside meant only that Flip could institute the Cassell package Guard Post-up game, but that's an add-on not a core concept.


Pretty spot-on summary of last season, doc. I'm getting more positive with each passing post! :D
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#906 » by Kanyewest » Sun Jul 25, 2010 7:42 pm

doclinkin wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:. Perhaps it was too good to be true for Arenas to become a pass first point guard (I believe his assist to turnover ratio in his final two games in 20082009 was 20-1



In a system he had captained for 7 years, and spent large parts of 2 years watching from the sidelines from the coaching perspective, with players he had run with for thousands of game minutes, live and in practice. Whereas Gil's first year with the Wiz squad posted his worst asst/to record in his career. (Contrast with his numbers last year which was his 2nd best ast/to ratio of his career at close to 2:1, equivalent to DWade).

Continuity leads to chemistry. Gilbert may not be an instinctive pass-first PG, but he's a bright guy who lives and breathes basketball, he figures to improve in Flip's system when running the sets from the ball side. There's a learning curve when entering any new system, and Flip expects a great deal from his Points. John Wall will look good from the jump, but all the players will begin to improve by leaps and bounds. You saw things begin to iron out over the course of the year, once Flip got over his depression after realizing that his veterans wouldn't instinctively immediately pick up his system after running a radically different skill set for 4-7 years. Once Flip had young new high energy guys trying hard to learn the sets he actually began to coach instead of sulking -- and the team picked up, improved, looked more crisp.

Last year they implemented the Dynamic Four sets, funneling offense through Dray. These are the KG sets. This year they'll start with the guard sets that no one was willing or able to pick up: Mike Miller wouldn't shoot, Nick Young still likes to dribble into traffic before taking a shot since playground ball is where he has honed his skill set, all their other PG options were gunners without desire to make patient reads until Shawn came along. Shawn's non-threat from outside meant only that Flip could institute the Cassell package Guard Post-up game, but that's an add-on not a core concept.

Gil and Johnny Balls should pick up the motion attack pretty quickly now. Kirk Hinrich has a decent catch-and-shoot game as a back-up, Nick Young seemed to have good chemistry with Wall in summercamp, Cartier also gets the concepts. If you tell Gil his only job when off the ball is to get open then score, yeah, he can do that all game long. And to prevent the rookie Wall from impacting on the rookie wall Gilbert can carry the team from the alpha dribbler spot. Whomever is nearest the rebound gets the ball, the other gets to get out and go. Both Gil and Wall have proven able to share with another attack guard ballhandler. Our guard attack should develop quite nicely before we have opportunity to sinter a 'rehapilitated' Dray back into the meld. It will be good for the swift growth of a guy like JWall.

Dray's potential early absence means that we also get a chance to test and feature Big Kev with his gluetrap hands. I know John Wall will find him an enticing target down low. His game is far more similar to Big Cuz than JaVale's is, and he should prove to have good synergy with the returning Dray since their games each leave space for the other to do their thing. Until then JaVale may actually get to try on Dray's pants as the finesse Big (where he and his mom clearly see him totally becoming an absolute star, maybe they're right, he clearly has an aversion to the bang and grind). Eventually maybe we get interplay between the two like Dice next to Sheed, a two-man zone on defense, on offense interchangeable on-the-floor, not redundant.

But future to the side last year was a 'less than the sum of the parts' year. Caron and Jamison are an ill-fit for Flip's system. Caron is best with the ball in his hands and room to work, but having lost weight he can't overpower opponents in the post, and he's never been deft with the catch and shoot. Jamison's best role in Flip's offense should have been in the small forward/guard spot: running past screens ready to catch and shoot on first touch. He can't play the Garnett mid-post role because he never passes. Gilbert was steadily improving under the system, especially when running offball next to Boinkings where his role is similar to the EJ sets (score when the ball hits you), but defensively the system completely broke down as usual since Flip was trying to fit EJ's tweeners into roles poorly suited for what they do best. And longstanding habits tended to reassert themselves.

This year, key youngsters get continuity (Nick Young most importantly since his learning curve tends to be shallower than most, needs a long run-up). And John Wall enters a situation with fresh eyes ready to learn. I suspect we'll see better chemistry this year even with lesser accomplishment on the resume. Fact is it helps young players a ton to have veterans on the roster to show how the game is played, where the shortcuts are, how hard you have to work. For the sake of JaVale in particular (and Seraphin/N'Diaye) I just wish we had the equivalent of an Alonzo Mourning to exemplify the blowtorch intensity needed for success in the rebound moshpit.


I guess Gilbert was an above average pass first point guard with the talent/system that he had last year. Although in fairness to the system, it has seen it's share of successful point guards with Billups, Cassell, Cassell, and Hudson. I'm also guessing that the benefits happen more in the 2nd year and 3rd year

I think my expectations for Gilbert were higher than just being a pretty good pass first point guard to an elite one. Sure Arenas had 13 assists or something against the Warriors; someone like Steve Nash put up 20 assists against the Warriors. The consistency was ultimately worrisome for me, although I was thinking all along that the Wizards would have played their best ball in the 2nd half of the season.

But you are right that there were problems that could stop any good point guard from doing well such as the lack of a pass and catch small forward or a stretch power forward who wasn't that consistent. BTW, I noticed that Jamison's numbers took a dip after Arenas left- 30% from the field and under 20% from during his last 5-6 games with the Wizards. I noticed LeBron couldn't make Jamison better in the playoffs either against the Celtics.

The problem with Arenas as a pass first point guard though is that Arenas can't pass to himself. He was the best scorer on the Wizards and was too reluctant to shoot. I feel like he wasn't taking as many shots in rhythm but perhaps that was due to a combination of rust, trying to be the facilitator, but didn't transition well into going back into attack mode on a consistent enough basis. He also said that he was going to back off from 3s going into the season, which was his biggest strength even when he was on one leg in 2008.

While Eddie Jordan didn't coach well enough on the defensive end, the Wizards were a very good offensive team. I think EG should have hired someone to keep that Princeton style offense going and someone who coach the defensive end. That's why people consider guys like Butler and Jamison addition by subtraction - rather than 2-3 all stars that were supposed to bring home championships, when in reality they are somewhere in between- 2 solid pieces.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#907 » by Wizardspride » Tue Aug 3, 2010 7:00 pm

From the general board

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1041517&start=345


Is it just me or are these Bulls fans getting awfully full of themselves?


1) But we're allowed to exclude the fact that Gilbert's been a shell of himself for the past 3 seasons, and only played 20something games before pulling a gun on a teammate?

2) Unlike Gilbert, Rose is actually capable of playing through an injury. He doesn't miss entire seasons for some b.s. reason. Rose proclaimed himself healthy to the media some random day late December, and since then we've tracked his statistics: He's basically been 23, 6, and 4 on over .560 TS% and a PER of 21-22. That stat line puts him in the same sentence as Brandon Roy and a sophomore Dwayne Wade, not a washed up Gilbert

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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#908 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue Aug 3, 2010 7:26 pm

Wpride, until Gil comes back to what he was, his PER being over 18 makes what Bulls fan saying not so out of whack. Except for the part where he says Rose played through injury.

To infer that Gil wasn't seriously hurt is just stupid. If Rose were to become injured similar to how Gil has been, his career would go down the tubes before he could claim being near the player that healthy Gil was. (Gil's PERs 23.8, 24.0 in 2005 and 2006, respectively).

Another thing Bulls fan hasn't taken into consideration is the number of successful years Gil strung together. Three-time all star. One 2nd team all NBA and two third team all NBAs. His injuries didn't happen until 6-7 productive seasons. He didn't have a bs year until his tenth season. Let's see what Rose does over time. Should be real good, but let's what and evaluate later. Gilbert did it over time prior to the injuries.

As far a being a Wizard fan goes, If Gil can post a 19.5 or 20 PER but defend better, I will be ecstatic. Wall should post 21+ right off the bat, and with good defense.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#909 » by dobrojim » Tue Aug 3, 2010 7:31 pm

unless I know less about PER than I believe, which IS possible,
I doubt that Wall will lead Gil in PER /this/ season.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#910 » by Rafael122 » Tue Aug 3, 2010 7:46 pm

Gil's knee was shattered. Not even Kobe could play under that.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#911 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue Aug 3, 2010 7:49 pm

I doubted it when I wrote that, jim.

What made me speculate those numbers is that Gil's PER the past three seasons has ended up in the 18s.

I remember when Larry Hughes played with Gil, both of them had season PERs in the 21s. I think Wall will be better than Hughes was.

In my mind I am hoping Gil gets a boost from Wall and somehow goes back to being a 23+ PER. Just hedging that, I guessed 19 or 20 PER for Gil.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#912 » by Kanyewest » Tue Aug 3, 2010 11:45 pm

Arenas in limited games posted the same PER as Rose did and he also had a rusty opening month like Derrick Rose. People will of course give credit to players who have done the most lately, for instance it's a big reason why people rate Deron Williams higher than Chris Paul right now.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#913 » by nate33 » Wed Aug 4, 2010 12:31 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I doubted it when I wrote that, jim.

What made me speculate those numbers is that Gil's PER the past three seasons has ended up in the 18s.

Arenas' last two seasons (excluding the most recent) consisted of a grand total of 15 games, most of which involved him playing on one leg after an extended layoff. I hardly consider it a useful sample.

The best statistical sample to use to project Arenas' future production is to take his numbers from last season minus the first 15 games or so. I don't have the data to do a proper PER calculation, but my ballpark estimate is a PER of about 22.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#914 » by montestewart » Wed Aug 4, 2010 12:44 am

If you read enough of that thread, some of the Rose pumping that culminated in the Arenas/Rose comparisons resulted from the usual baiting and battling. Arenas just got caught in the crossfire. Bulls fans have some reasons to raise expectations, and some of them are a little more measured than others.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#915 » by hands11 » Wed Aug 4, 2010 1:12 am

doclinkin wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:. Perhaps it was too good to be true for Arenas to become a pass first point guard (I believe his assist to turnover ratio in his final two games in 20082009 was 20-1



In a system he had captained for 7 years, and spent large parts of 2 years watching from the sidelines from the coaching perspective, with players he had run with for thousands of game minutes, live and in practice. Whereas Gil's first year with the Wiz squad posted his worst asst/to record in his career. (Contrast with his numbers last year which was his 2nd best ast/to ratio of his career at close to 2:1, equivalent to DWade).

Continuity leads to chemistry. Gilbert may not be an instinctive pass-first PG, but he's a bright guy who lives and breathes basketball, he figures to improve in Flip's system when running the sets from the ball side. There's a learning curve when entering any new system, and Flip expects a great deal from his Points. John Wall will look good from the jump, but all the players will begin to improve by leaps and bounds. You saw things begin to iron out over the course of the year, once Flip got over his depression after realizing that his veterans wouldn't instinctively immediately pick up his system after running a radically different skill set for 4-7 years. Once Flip had young new high energy guys trying hard to learn the sets he actually began to coach instead of sulking -- and the team picked up, improved, looked more crisp.

Last year they implemented the Dynamic Four sets, funneling offense through Dray. These are the KG sets. This year they'll start with the guard sets that no one was willing or able to pick up: Mike Miller wouldn't shoot, Nick Young still likes to dribble into traffic before taking a shot since playground ball is where he has honed his skill set, all their other PG options were gunners without desire to make patient reads until Shawn came along. Shawn's non-threat from outside meant only that Flip could institute the Cassell package Guard Post-up game, but that's an add-on not a core concept.

Gil and Johnny Balls should pick up the motion attack pretty quickly now. Kirk Hinrich has a decent catch-and-shoot game as a back-up, Nick Young seemed to have good chemistry with Wall in summercamp, Cartier also gets the concepts. If you tell Gil his only job when off the ball is to get open then score, yeah, he can do that all game long. And to prevent the rookie Wall from impacting on the rookie wall Gilbert can carry the team from the alpha dribbler spot. Whomever is nearest the rebound gets the ball, the other gets to get out and go. Both Gil and Wall have proven able to share with another attack guard ballhandler. Our guard attack should develop quite nicely before we have opportunity to sinter a 'rehapilitated' Dray back into the meld. It will be good for the swift growth of a guy like JWall.

Dray's potential early absence means that we also get a chance to test and feature Big Kev with his gluetrap hands. I know John Wall will find him an enticing target down low. His game is far more similar to Big Cuz than JaVale's is, and he should prove to have good synergy with the returning Dray since their games each leave space for the other to do their thing. Until then JaVale may actually get to try on Dray's pants as the finesse Big (where he and his mom clearly see him totally becoming an absolute star, maybe they're right, he clearly has an aversion to the bang and grind). Eventually maybe we get interplay between the two like Dice next to Sheed, a two-man zone on defense, on offense interchangeable on-the-floor, not redundant.

But future to the side last year was a 'less than the sum of the parts' year. Caron and Jamison are an ill-fit for Flip's system. Caron is best with the ball in his hands and room to work, but having lost weight he can't overpower opponents in the post, and he's never been deft with the catch and shoot. Jamison's best role in Flip's offense should have been in the small forward/guard spot: running past screens ready to catch and shoot on first touch. He can't play the Garnett mid-post role because he never passes. Gilbert was steadily improving under the system, especially when running offball next to Boinkings where his role is similar to the EJ sets (score when the ball hits you), but defensively the system completely broke down as usual since Flip was trying to fit EJ's tweeners into roles poorly suited for what they do best. And longstanding habits tended to reassert themselves.

This year, key youngsters get continuity (Nick Young most importantly since his learning curve tends to be shallower than most, needs a long run-up). And John Wall enters a situation with fresh eyes ready to learn. I suspect we'll see better chemistry this year even with lesser accomplishment on the resume. Fact is it helps young players a ton to have veterans on the roster to show how the game is played, where the shortcuts are, how hard you have to work. For the sake of JaVale in particular (and Seraphin/N'Diaye) I just wish we had the equivalent of an Alonzo Mourning to exemplify the blowtorch intensity needed for success in the rebound moshpit.


Pretty spot on with how I see it/things which is why I'm hopeful we really turned the corner. Should be fun to watch next year until we make our next round of moves.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#916 » by Ruzious » Wed Aug 4, 2010 7:23 am

I hate to be the negative guy, but I remember the nightmare that was last season. And Gil was part of the problem. I think we all know he was horrific on defense - not merely bad. And there were major problems on offense. He'd often take forced long jumpers early in the shot-clock that inevitably led to long defensive rebounds that led to easy fast-break points. And he was horrific down the stretch in close games - with turnovers and poor judgment. He scored a lot of points, and his teammates had faults, but he was painful to watch most games, and unlike past years - he did not make his team or teammates better. And this seems to be the dirtly little secret that nobody here remembers or cares to admit. Some of it can be blamed on rust, but it's wishful thinking to blame it all on rust. Hopefully, the move to the 2 helps make him more of a winning player.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#917 » by LyricalRico » Wed Aug 4, 2010 11:50 am

Ruzious wrote:I hate to be the negative guy, but I remember the nightmare that was last season. And Gil was part of the problem. I think we all know he was horrific on defense - not merely bad. And there were major problems on offense. He'd often take forced long jumpers early in the shot-clock that inevitably led to long defensive rebounds that led to easy fast-break points. And he was horrific down the stretch in close games - with turnovers and poor judgment. He scored a lot of points, and his teammates had faults, but he was painful to watch most games, and unlike past years - he did not make his team or teammates better. And this seems to be the dirtly little secret that nobody here remembers or cares to admit. Some of it can be blamed on rust, but it's wishful thinking to blame it all on rust. Hopefully, the move to the 2 helps make him more of a winning player.


:nod:

Yep, they just quote the per-game averages but leave out the context. Great point. I've become more positive about Gil since this debate started, but I would still find it hard to turn down expirings for him. I just think that the people that are expecting the guy from 2006 to swoop in and save the day are going to be disappointed. Of course they'll blame if on Flip, or Ted/EG, or even Wall before admitting that their beloved Arenas might not be what he once was.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#918 » by nate33 » Wed Aug 4, 2010 12:34 pm

if I recall correctly, Arenas had an horrific on/off differential after the first 10 games or so, something like -10 points per 100 possessions. The numbers back up Ruzious' point that Arenas wasn't helping the team much early on. That said, Arenas finished the season with a +2.0 on/off differential. During his last 22 games or so, he must have been helping the team quite a bit in order to bring his differential up so much. The sample size is small, but there is at least some reason for optimism.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#919 » by Ruzious » Wed Aug 4, 2010 1:38 pm

But a +2 on/off on a terrible team with Foye and Boykins as the alternatives - I don't think that's impressive. Just wondering - did the +2 get affected by the games he didn't play, or was that his number at the time he got suspended?

Don't get me wrong - I think Arenas can play effectively, and Wall's presence can make him a better player. I just think that people thinking there's a decent chance that he'll be an all-star quality player are fooling themselves.
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Re: Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space? 

Post#920 » by nate33 » Wed Aug 4, 2010 2:08 pm

the +2 figure was the end-of-the-season number and would have been affected even in the 50 games he missed. But the post-suspension team wasn't significantly worse than the pre-suspension team so I don't see how the numbers would have changed much.

Also, I think Foye was probably better than most backup PGs so I don't think it's fair to attribute Arenas' decent on/off differential to lousy backups.

Use of on/off numbers with these low sample sizes is dicey at best. I'm not saying that the numbers prove that Arenas had a net positive effect. I'm just saying there's reason for optimism.

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