Championship: why not, or how. Strategy, tactics, best hopes

[hands11]

Yeah, if Gil comes back and plays the way we had hoped, then the only thing in between us and the championship is McGee's development, a solid three point shooting, defense playing three (like Posey was for the Celtics), a decent bench, and friendly whistles from the refs.

More important than any of those things you mentioned are interior defense and rebounding. We don't have it - unless Seraphin turns into a stud. Cross fingers.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1039457&start=15

I think we are missing a good bit more than that. IMO the team you are describing is a playoff team but not a conference finalist or championship level.

We are still missing that stud SF/SG/PG or SG/SF in the mold of a Kobe, Wade, LeBron, PP, MJ, Manu or even a Prince and a defensive presence at center.

Wall vs Rondo - I think Wall is better already. Has more range and can shoot a FT.
Gil vs Allen - Allen way more reliable, mature, and pure shooter but Gil has more skill
SF vs PP ": AT, NY, Booker .. We have athletic talent but not the stud you want there.
Dray vs KG - Dray has the talent. He is young and still going to get better but needs to mature
Perkins vs McGee, Seraphin - McGee is a freak but still raw and no post defense.

Kirk, Nick, Booker, Yi, hopefully Singleton, is a solid bench. I'm not worried about more 3 point shooting. We have enough in Gil, Nick and Kirk. Even Dray showed a stroke from range and I think he can show it even more if needed. Besides, the deeper you go in the playoffs, the less the 3 ball is open unless your tall like Dirk and Dray. What you need are tough defenders and just plan tough man who are basketball players. Look at what Artest did for LA in the finals.

The ball while be in the hands of Wall, Gil, Kirk and Dray. All of them can create a shot, shoot and drive.

The big holes is still defensive center. That is what is needed for the team to be stable and have a chance of getting out of round 1 of the playoffs. For this year, that means banking a lot on Seraphin and praying we get something from Armstrong. Seraphin is our only hope for a home run if he turns out that he can defend the post. I have little faith McGee will. We lost Haywood so that is the key piece that needs replaced. That is the core piece. Not another shooter from range.

With that you have a solid playoff team. But your still missing a huge piece in that stud SF/SG or SG/SF. One long shot way to get there is if McGee end up being a PF and you more Dray to SF.

Wall
Gil
Dray
McGee
Seraphin

I know that is a pipe dream but at least McGee finds a home that I think fits him better where he can start. Just throwing stuff out there. We will see.

[Silvie Lysandra]

Dray's about as much a SF as Dirk was.

However, a guy I'd like to target in the near future is Josh Smith, maybe if we can get another C somehow, or if Seraphin becomes a solid piece. If we're in the lottery again I'd gladly deal it for him. They need to get a true C next to Horford.

[pancakes3]

if you all are talking about assembling talent dispersed around the roster like the pistons did, i think hinrich is good enough to start on a championship caliber team. our Sf would have to be on ariza's level. Blatche is good enough at PF and a C on par wiith Nene.

Wall
Hinrich
Ariza
Blatche
Nene

is as good a starting 5 as you can ask for and the bench of mcgee, booker, seraphin, thornton, and young is a pretty dern impressive yet obtainable squad.

[Benjammin]

if you all are talking about assembling talent dispersed around the roster like the pistons did, i think hinrich is good enough to start on a championship caliber team. our Sf would have to be on ariza's level. Blatche is good enough at PF and a C on par wiith Nene.

Wall
Hinrich
Ariza
Blatche
Nene

is as good a starting 5 as you can ask for and the bench of mcgee, booker, seraphin, thornton, and young is a pretty dern impressive yet obtainable squad.

I'm sorry, but that starting lineup doesn't begin to compare with the Pistons championship teams. Nor would it contend in today's NBA either. That lineup doesn't have a go to scorer. It would be pretty good defensively. It doesn't have very good three point shooting. It's not very dynamic offensively.

[Dat2U]

Yeah, if Gil comes back and plays the way we had hoped, then the only thing in between us and the championship is McGee's development, a solid three point shooting, defense playing three (like Posey was for the Celtics), a decent bench, and friendly whistles from the refs.

More important than any of those things you mentioned are interior defense and rebounding. We don't have it - unless Seraphin turns into a stud. Cross fingers.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1039457&start=15

I think we are missing a good bit more than that. IMO the team you are describing is a playoff team but not a conference finalist or championship level.

We are still missing that stud SF/SG/PG or SG/SF in the mold of a Kobe, Wade, LeBron, PP, MJ, Manu or even a Prince and a defensive presence at center.

Wall vs Rondo - I think Wall is better already. Has more range and can shoot a FT.
Gil vs Allen - Allen way more reliable, mature, and pure shooter but Gil has more skill
SF vs PP ": AT, NY, Booker .. We have athletic talent but not the stud you want there.
Dray vs KG - Dray has the talent. He is young and still going to get better but needs to mature
Perkins vs McGee, Seraphin - McGee is a freak but still raw and no post defense.

Kirk, Nick, Booker, Yi, hopefully Singleton, is a solid bench. I'm not worried about more 3 point shooting. We have enough in Gil, Nick and Kirk. Even Dray showed a stroke from range and I think he can show it even more if needed. Besides, the deeper you go in the playoffs, the less the 3 ball is open unless your tall like Dirk and Dray. What you need are tough defenders and just plan tough man who are basketball players. Look at what Artest did for LA in the finals.

The ball while be in the hands of Wall, Gil, Kirk and Dray. All of them can create a shot, shoot and drive.

The big holes is still defensive center. That is what is needed for the team to be stable and have a chance of getting out of round 1 of the playoffs. For this year, that means banking a lot on Seraphin and praying we get something from Armstrong. Seraphin is our only hope for a home run if he turns out that he can defend the post. I have little faith McGee will. We lost Haywood so that is the key piece that needs replaced. That is the core piece. Not another shooter from range.

With that you have a solid playoff team. But your still missing a huge piece in that stud SF/SG or SG/SF. One long shot way to get there is if McGee end up being a PF and you more Dray to SF.

Wall
Gil
Dray
McGee
Seraphin

I know that is a pipe dream but at least McGee finds a home that I think fits him better where he can start. Just throwing stuff out there. We will see.

I'm more with Ruz. We gotta add low post defense & defensive rebounding at a minimum to make a serious move. We can't be a running team if we can't rebound and at this stage we don't have the physical toughness to coral those important 4th quarter boards. We need a guy like Al Horford. Skilled & tough with a high b-ball IQ. I think he's probably the best complement with a Blatche, McGee frontline.

The SF position is a secondary need. I'm more interested in a dynamic defender as opposed to a dynamic scorer. At least as long as Arenas is on the roster. That's why I've had Kirilenko as my overwhelmingly favorite BOYD scenario prior to the draft. He's versatile enough that could cover alot of weaknesses we'd have with Arenas at the 2 and McGee at the 5.

So I guess I'd like to see this:

PF Blatche
SF Kirilenko
CE Horford / McGee
SG Arenas
PG Wall

The "Detroit" model. Above average starters at every position. I wonder if we could pull it off financially if we trade Hinrich and dump Young & Thornton next offseason?

[pancakes3]

if you all are talking about assembling talent dispersed around the roster like the pistons did, i think hinrich is good enough to start on a championship caliber team. our Sf would have to be on ariza's level. Blatche is good enough at PF and a C on par wiith Nene.

Wall
Hinrich
Ariza
Blatche
Nene

is as good a starting 5 as you can ask for and the bench of mcgee, booker, seraphin, thornton, and young is a pretty dern impressive yet obtainable squad.

I'm sorry, but that starting lineup doesn't begin to compare with the Pistons championship teams. Nor would it contend in today's NBA either. That lineup doesn't have a go to scorer. It would be pretty good defensively. It doesn't have very good three point shooting. It's not very dynamic offensively.

i beg to differ. sure we don't have ben wallace anchoring the middle, or have the top names of the miami cheat, but i think it's sneakily talented enough. all 5 players are studly man defenders, and from 1-5, as good as the pistons (diminishing margins of return on how good blatche/nene compare to wallace/wallace vs how much better hinrich is than rip).

go to scorer? between wall's wade-like ability to get to the hole and blatche the late bloomer, i say we've got enough non-scripted freelancing offense to go around.

3 point shooting? hinrich and ariza happen to be pretty darn good spot up shooters. top 5 in their respective positions imo. well, kirk maybe top 7. certainly better 3 point shooters than rip/tayshaun.

of course going into next season we wouldn't have a prayer. but, in 2012 when wall's got a full season under his belt, blatche in a contract year... and given the "gettability" of the players involved (as opposed to 9 team mega trades that land us gasol/melo/durant/etc) i think this would be the path of least resistance for a realistic shot at the championship.

[Benjammin]

Hinrich is a good percentage 3 point shooter on pretty low volume. Overall, Kirk has not played well offensively in three years. Ariza is decent, but not special offensively. I don't see this squad having much of a chance against the Lakers, a healthy Rockets team, a healthy Portland team, the Heat, the Magic perhaps, the Celtics perhaps as they are aging, to name just a few. I'm not saying it's a bad team or it's not a playoff team, but it's not going to match up well with these other teams.

I do agree with your strategy of trying to put together a well balanced team that could compete. I just don't think this compilation of players would be good enough, but it makes for a fun conversation.

[Hoopalotta]

We gotta add low post defense & defensive rebounding at a minimum to make a serious move. We can't be a running team if we can't rebound and at this stage we don't have the physical toughness to coral those important 4th quarter boards. We need a guy like Al Horford. Skilled & tough with a high b-ball IQ. I think he's probably the best complement with a Blatche, McGee frontline.

The SF position is a secondary need. I'm more interested in a dynamic defender as opposed to a dynamic scorer. At least as long as Arenas is on the roster. That's why I've had Kirilenko as my overwhelmingly favorite BOYD scenario prior to the draft. He's versatile enough that could cover alot of weaknesses we'd have with Arenas at the 2 and McGee at the 5.

So I guess I'd like to see this:

PF Blatche
SF Kirilenko
CE Horford / McGee
SG Arenas
PG Wall

The "Detroit" model. Above average starters at every position. I wonder if we could pull it off financially if we trade Hinrich and dump Young & Thornton next offseason?

Those would be good targets to build a contender within the next few years, though AK's a bit too old and rickety for me to want to sign him to a long term deal next offseason (he would've been a good BOYD target).

I'm thinking that Horford would take a max deal thrown his way in order to get Atlanta to let him go (might be an S&T anyway), and even then you've got multiple suitors willing to do so. However, we'd probably be a more appealing than destinations like Indiana. Under the current CBA, that max deal would start at $13.5 million (5 years @ $79 million), but it might be come down to more like $11-12 million if the owners win big with the lockout (maybe 5 years @ $65-72 million).

Even just to make that offer, we'd need to clear some cap space, but that would be a nasty front line with Horford a nice pairing with either Blatche or McGee.

To me, this is the sort of thing you have to do if you're keeping Gil long term - you double down on the investment and attack the top teams decisively with the cap window that is available. No hedging. You do it if you believe in the talent you have and and are here backing it up with a decisive acquisition. No long, rambling justifications about establishing a developmental framework that reinforces a positive culture which reinvents the Wizards brand as a positive in the minds of consumers and potential future employees. If it takes a long time to explain what we're doing, something is rotten in the state of Washington.

I don't see Gil as a $20 million dollar babysitter who works with patient rebuilding as his presence infringes on acquisitions and he breaks you if he gets injured. If your goal is to attack, you take that injury risk, but if your goal is to acquire young assets and develop, it's counter productive.

As to the above team, they're not favorites in the East by any means, but they'd have a shot at doing something and I like that we're speaking in specific terms as to acquisitions that could be added to a Gil team (I must confess to being extremely frustrated with the majority of those who would like to keep Gil in resisting the discussion of acquisitions moving into specifics). It wouldn't be my first choice, but I could live with it.

As you noted, the whole thing is contingent on moving Hiney (unless it's a S&T) as far as freeing up the space to make it happen. From Atlanta's perspective, I could see them trying to stick us with Marvelous in order to add value on their end (maybe Seraphin, Hiney & ??? going out). Not ideal, but the front line would physically overload a lot of teams.

[Kanyewest]

if you all are talking about assembling talent dispersed around the roster like the pistons did, i think hinrich is good enough to start on a championship caliber team.

I can't see this at all at this stage of his career. While he's as good as it gets on the defensive end, he's not a dynamic enough playmaker at the point guard position, and isn't a consistent enough scorer as an off the ball player or clutch like Mr. Big Shot or Richard Hamilton. I will say that he could be an effective role player for a championship caliber team. Hinrich needs to play with a all-star caliber player (or two or three or four...) to be a starter to win a championship.

[nate33]

I'm more with Ruz. We gotta add low post defense & defensive rebounding at a minimum to make a serious move. We can't be a running team if we can't rebound and at this stage we don't have the physical toughness to coral those important 4th quarter boards. We need a guy like Al Horford. Skilled & tough with a high b-ball IQ. I think he's probably the best complement with a Blatche, McGee frontline.

The SF position is a secondary need. I'm more interested in a dynamic defender as opposed to a dynamic scorer. At least as long as Arenas is on the roster. That's why I've had Kirilenko as my overwhelmingly favorite BOYD scenario prior to the draft. He's versatile enough that could cover alot of weaknesses we'd have with Arenas at the 2 and McGee at the 5.

So I guess I'd like to see this:

PF Blatche
SF Kirilenko
CE Horford / McGee
SG Arenas
PG Wall

The "Detroit" model. Above average starters at every position. I wonder if we could pull it off financially if we trade Hinrich and dump Young & Thornton next offseason?

Horford would be a good fit. As Hoopalotta said, he'd probably cost us the max, and even then, Atlanta might match.

If we dumped Hinrich for an expiring, we'd have about $23M in cap space to work with next summer. Throw a $14M max salary at Horford, and we'd be left with $9M for a defensive SF. I don't like Kirilenko as the SF in that rotation though. He turns 30 this season, he misses 15 games a year, and he shoots 29% from 3-point range. I'd rather buy off Marvin Williams from Atlanta, or sign Josh Howard right now to a 2-year deal as a stop gap measure, or sign Battier next year to a short deal. We can then keep our eyes open for a replacement using the MLE. Maybe one of the Sacramento SF's (Casspi or Green) will become available.

[Hoopalotta]

Three separate tweets on the CBA negotiations compiled together for your viewing pleasure:

RT @wondahbap:What kind of concessions do you see both sides making?

LarryCoon Owners ask for an arm & leg, settle for just a leg. Owners are going to win this -- it just depends on how much they get. I don't think it goes as far as a hard cap. If I had to guess, I'd say the revenue split happens after expenses, with new definitions for what counts as BRI and what counts as a pre-split expense.

Obviously, the Coonster's just guessing, but these calculations will frame the wiggle room available for acquiring champagne-ship caliber assets.

The BRI is a gross revenue compilation, and the way it's split is used to determine the salary cap each year. Somehow, and I don't understand this exactly, 51% of the BRI makes up the salary cap, but the players are guaranteed 57% of revenues (maybe it has to do with other "benefits"). If negotiations adjust the cap calculations downward - for example, down to 48% of the BRI - that would automatically swing the cap downward by some millions in real terms.

No matter how tight the owners pinch themselves by pruning the cap back and absorbing heavy luxury tax payments on big payrolls in the short term, gains there are a huge win in the long term as they're gaining control of slivers of an annual $4 billion pie. Simplistically, potentially and theoretically, a 1% gain of the BRI is something like $40 million a year right now. A 3% gain is $120 million. That's broken math that shouldn't be taken literally, but it shows the basic idea. And once the figures swing that way, it would be very difficult for the players to win concessions back in future negotiations, so it's a staggering pile of cash over 20-30 years. And, it's an awful lot more over 20-30 years than the luxury tax payments are over 2-3 years (and even that money is just being recycled to the small market teams with low payrolls).

However, the Coonster's reckoning is that it will be complicated in how the calculations are arrived at, so I can't say I have a real grasp of the exact practical repercussions of what he is speculating at here other than the basics.

But I put this into the "world domination" file folder....

[AceDegenerate]

For all the talk of tanking being what's best for the team, Don't you think we are paying the Head Coach a little bit too much per year to be tanking? Flip has never been known as some groomer of young talent (aside from lucking out with KG). I don't see how Flip Saunders fits the role of a Coach to guide the team as they tank while hoping for High Draft picks. I mean, even if the team were to trade Arenas and decide we are not looking to compete, what makes anyone think Flip is going to be happy losing games? The man has a pretty good overall Head Coaching Record and I don't see him jeopardizing that just to bide time and hope for draft picks. That would be him putting his own career on the line, and may cost him jobs in the future.

The team is built to compete right now AND in the future. Until we fire Saunders I can't see how it makes sense to rack up ping pong balls at all. When you see Tapscott running the team again, then we can talk about tanking, until then we are Playoff Hopefuls.

[Kanyewest]

For all the talk of tanking being what's best for the team, Don't you think we are paying the Head Coach a little bit too much per year to be tanking? Flip has never been known as some groomer of young talent (aside from lucking out with KG). I don't see how Flip Saunders fits the role of a Coach to guide the team as they tank while hoping for High Draft picks. I mean, even if the team were to trade Arenas and decide we are not looking to compete, what makes anyone think Flip is going to be happy losing games? The man has a pretty good overall Head Coaching Record and I don't see him jeopardizing that just to bide time and hope for draft picks. That would be him putting his own career on the line, and may cost him jobs in the future.

The team is built to compete right now AND in the future. Until we fire Saunders I can't see how it makes sense to rack up ping pong balls at all. When you see Tapscott running the team again, then we can talk about tanking, until then we are Playoff Hopefuls.

Flip has developed some young talent in the past: Stephon Marbury, Chauncey Billups, and Rodney Stuckey (whose career has trailed off a bit since Flip has left). I do agree that Flip won't try to tank to hurt his overall record and career (and I don't think management is with trades for players like Kirk Hinrich). Although I don't think Tapscott was trying to tank (ie play the vets at all costs).

[Hoopalotta]

I say go one way or the other with it: either tank without Gil using the turtle strategy or make a decisive power-move towards the upper echelon with Gil as a core piece.

It's the half-arsed, long term turtling with Gil that careens sharply towards a septic stench.

[doclinkin]

I say go one way or the other with it: either tank without Gil using the turtle strategy or make a decisive power-move towards the upper echelon with Gil as a core piece.

It's the half-arsed, long term turtling with Gil that careens sharply towards a septic stench.

The way it's gonna be for the interim is a three-quarter assed, mid-term stall pattern, while John Wall gets acclimated to the NBA & accustomed to winning a few, Gilbert rehabilitates his value for the team to assess his best utility, and the new CBA shakes itself out.

You just have to expect here's a whole lot of future left in the world. Otherwise commit to winning a championship before Dec 2012 when mother nature pushes the reset button on the entire experiment, you know.

There is no pressure as of today to commit to a strategy other than 'know when to hold 'em'. There are too many variables right now to commit to folding early or going all in. Are two aces gonna be enough when you know for sure the Heat player has: Jack, (drama) Queen, and King all in the same suit? The prudent thing is not to quit before you've even seen your draw. And quite frankly as for Gilbert's value, we don't even know that anything has been offered by anyone. One rumor is not a serious bid.

Teddy Dotcom at this point has to be committed to giving the kids a try together. Truth is the franchise is trying to rehabilitate it's reputation as a bass-ackwards front office with a history of herky-jerky decisions and bad timing. No possible way that Ted could say, point blank: 'we're keeping Gilbert', all while sneakretly working out a backdoor deal. Ted's got the reputation of a **** straight shooter. For now it's necessary that he builds his personal brand as an owner in this league. Come to the Wiz, we'll take care of you. Either way you'll never wonder where you stand. Ultimately agents and free agents, and front offices elsewhere, ought to resonate with the approach.

Whatever your hopes or 'plans' for the future, you have to accept that for now this team, this front office, will stand pat as is (for some part of the season) to see what it is we've got. (Well, you don't have to accept it, but you'll chug less Maalox that way). We're one year into the regime of a new coach, new system, re-set. We have a handful of question marks, no answers. The incoming ownership will give it some time to see what's developing, and make his reads based on information and data, not panic, speculation, projection or fears of da boogeymans.

Understood though 'wait-and-see' doesn't make for very interesting internets. We've still got months of summer to go, so, keep at it, all.

[Hoopalotta]

I'm not suggesting making a big move at this very instant; I wouldn't even have an idea on where to start with that. It's after the lockout with the new CBA set that the roster decisions need to be made on how to blow the cap space powder-keg before the waves wash it overboard.

But after that, if we keep Gil, it wouldn't really matter much who wants to come play for the Zards in 2013 as we wouldn't have the means of making it happen unless we move Dray or Javale before their extensions without bringing back any significant salary or if we start juggling expiring contracts. Seems to me that both of those scenarios are pretty negative and basically represent a poor use of two seasons, so I see the winter of 2011-2012 as being the decisive moment.

I fully appreciate that nothing wild and woolen is afoot at this very instant.

[Dat2U]

To me, this is the sort of thing you have to do if you're keeping Gil long term - you double down on the investment and attack the top teams decisively with the cap window that is available. No hedging. You do it if you believe in the talent you have and and are here backing it up with a decisive acquisition. No long, rambling justifications about establishing a developmental framework that reinforces a positive culture which reinvents the Wizards brand as a positive in the minds of consumers and potential future employees. If it takes a long time to explain what we're doing, something is rotten in the state of Washington.

I don't see Gil as a $20 million dollar babysitter who works with patient rebuilding as his presence infringes on acquisitions and he breaks you if he gets injured. If your goal is to attack, you take that injury risk, but if your goal is to acquire young assets and develop, it's counter productive.

As to the above team, they're not favorites in the East by any means, but they'd have a shot at doing something and I like that we're speaking in specific terms as to acquisitions that could be added to a Gil team (I must confess to being extremely frustrated with the majority of those who would like to keep Gil in resisting the discussion of acquisitions moving into specifics). It wouldn't be my first choice, but I could live with it.

A few weeks back I said the Wizards circumstances should dictate a course of action. Alot of us in the keep Arenas camp are probably more behind a 'wait & see' approach with Gilbert as opposed to keeping him for the length of his deal. I honestly have no idea how we'll perform once the season starts. My gut tells me we'll better than expected and potentially playoff worthy, but for all I know we could be sitting at 8-19 two months into a season and focused on 2011 lottery prospects. If barelyawake turns out to be right and we stink to high hell, trust me, I'd have a totally different outlook on Gil & tanking.

[Dat2U]

I'm more with Ruz. We gotta add low post defense & defensive rebounding at a minimum to make a serious move. We can't be a running team if we can't rebound and at this stage we don't have the physical toughness to coral those important 4th quarter boards. We need a guy like Al Horford. Skilled & tough with a high b-ball IQ. I think he's probably the best complement with a Blatche, McGee frontline.

The SF position is a secondary need. I'm more interested in a dynamic defender as opposed to a dynamic scorer. At least as long as Arenas is on the roster. That's why I've had Kirilenko as my overwhelmingly favorite BOYD scenario prior to the draft. He's versatile enough that could cover alot of weaknesses we'd have with Arenas at the 2 and McGee at the 5.

So I guess I'd like to see this:

PF Blatche
SF Kirilenko
CE Horford / McGee
SG Arenas
PG Wall

The "Detroit" model. Above average starters at every position. I wonder if we could pull it off financially if we trade Hinrich and dump Young & Thornton next offseason?

Horford would be a good fit. As Hoopalotta said, he'd probably cost us the max, and even then, Atlanta might match.

If we dumped Hinrich for an expiring, we'd have about $23M in cap space to work with next summer. Throw a $14M max salary at Horford, and we'd be left with $9M for a defensive SF. I don't like Kirilenko as the SF in that rotation though. He turns 30 this season, he misses 15 games a year, and he shoots 29% from 3-point range. I'd rather buy off Marvin Williams from Atlanta, or sign Josh Howard right now to a 2-year deal as a stop gap measure, or sign Battier next year to a short deal. We can then keep our eyes open for a replacement using the MLE. Maybe one of the Sacramento SF's (Casspi or Green) will become available.

If were running Arenas at the 2, you need a dynamic defender at the 3. I wouldn't call Marvin or Josh dynamic in any sense of the word. Adequate? Sure. But I'm not sure adequate gets us to that next level. As far as age an injuries, I understand your concerns about Andrei but you then suggest Josh Howard as a viable alternative.

Honestly outside of Kirilenko, the only guys I'd see that would be ideal fits is Gerald Wallace or Nicolas Batum. Not sure either of those guys are attainable. Maybe someone like Shane Battier, Tayshaun Prince or Jared Dudley would be decent stopgaps.

[nate33]

If were running Arenas at the 2, you need a dynamic defender at the 3. I wouldn't call Marvin or Josh dynamic in any sense of the word. Adequate? Sure. But I'm not sure adequate gets us to that next level. As far as age an injuries, I understand your concerns about Andrei but you then suggest Josh Howard as a viable alternative.

Honestly outside of Kirilenko, the only guys I'd see that would be ideal fits is Gerald Wallace or Nicolas Batum. Not sure either of those guys are attainable. Maybe someone like Shane Battier, Tayshaun Prince or Jared Dudley would be decent stopgaps.

Kirilenko has lost a step defensively. He's still a good help defender with his shot blocking ability, but his man-to-man defense is nothing to write home about. Indeed, I consider Marvin Williams a better man-to-man defender.

But my real point is that I think Kirilenko would command a contract starting at at least $8M or so. Rather than lock up a 30-year-old Kirilenko to a 4 year, $35M deal in 2011, I'd prefer to just sign Josh Howard to a 2-year $10M deal right now. We'd get a good (albeit injury-prone) stop gap player for two years and retain the flexibility to find a better option in 2012. Better yet, make that second year of Josh Howard's deal a team option (even if it costs us more in the first year) so that we can have the flexibility to go after a pretty good crop of defensive small forwards in 2011 (Prince, Battier, Dudley, etc.).

[pancakes3]

i really find it mindboggling that there aren't scores of players of battier's quality just waiting to be signed. yes, i understand smarts, preparation, and hustle are hugely unique to his defensive game but honestly, how rare is that in a 6'8 guy? apparently supremely rare.