Jays @ Royals July 19-21

[Peteros]

Greinke has owned us over his career.

Greinke has actually struggled vs. the Jays relative to his career against other teams. Not today, though.

I just want Yunel to come back.

I stand corrected. Greinke has acutally struggled against us relative to other teams. Thanks Randle.

(Career Split stats vs Jays before today's game.)

G GS W L SV BS HLD CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
10 8 2 4 0 0 1 1 0 50.2 51 29 27 5 12 35 4.80 1.24 .252

[Peteros]

Never been a fan of Overbay and I'm glad this is his final year.

[evilRyu]

Greinke has owned us over his career.

Greinke has actually struggled vs. the Jays relative to his career against other teams. Not today, though.

I just want Yunel to come back.

I stand corrected. Greinke has acutally struggled against us relative to other teams. Thanks Randle.

(Career Split stats vs Jays before today's game.)

G GS W L SV BS HLD CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
10 8 2 4 0 0 1 1 0 50.2 51 29 27 5 12 35 4.80 1.24 .252

weren't the Jays the first team to score an earned run against him last year? Or something to that effect..

[Geddy]

I was hoping to check the boxscore this evening and see that the Jays had won so I could Lulz at Steinke...

[Pop Rozay]

figures they lose this one, they scored 13 last night...they knew the game was done but still decide to pad it on, save some for the next game

[victor page]

Schad at the MLB level first basemen DO pick up throws in the dirt. But just looking at a box score you'd see the error on the thrower so Overbay escapes blame. I'm not saying you're just looking at a box score - but I'm saying that Overbay's ineptitude can't be measured by stats alone which is why the stats guys like Ricciardi, Wilner, and a lot of people on realGM don't see how he's costing the Jays wins year after year.

Also, you admit yourself that Overbay's offensive production is well below average for a first baseman. If he's playing catcher, I'm fine with his production. A small or mid-market team like the Jays needs more pop out of its first baseman. And to make it worse, you can't have a guy go down looking all the time in critical at-bats. It kills the team and don't be foolish and think "these guys are professionals, they don't get discouraged". It happens all the time again this isn't strato-matic it's a sport played by actual people.

[Schad]

Schad at the MLB level first basemen DO pick up throws in the dirt. But just looking at a box score you'd see the error on the thrower so Overbay escapes blame. I'm not saying you're just looking at a box score - but I'm saying that Overbay's ineptitude can't be measured by stats alone which is why the stats guys like Ricciardi, Wilner, and a lot of people on realGM don't see how he's costing the Jays wins year after year.

It can't be measured by stats alone because it isn't true. Aaron Hill, Alex Gonzalez, and Edwin Encarnacion have a total of 14 throwing errors all season...even if you assume that Overbay's incredible ineptitude is responsible for half those errors, that's probably a total of three or four runs all year. Not wins, runs. In terms of wins? Possibly 1-2, but that 1-2 is negated by the plays he does make that others don't.

My apologies, though...counting up the actual number of errors they've committed probably counts as an injection of those dreaded "stats" into the equation, and thus should be ignored.

Also, you admit yourself that Overbay's offensive production is well below average for a first baseman. If he's playing catcher, I'm fine with his production.

Not well below average...slightly below average. At first base, you're looking for an OPS+ in the 120 range, while Overbay's three-year is 111. There are plenty of teams that wouldn't be

A small or mid-market team like the Jays needs more pop out of its first baseman.

What does being a small/mid-market team have to do with the import of slugging at first? Hell, it might be the opposite...because slugging first basemen often receive massive contracts, there's probably more value within the constraints of our budget having a guy who grades out around average all things considered, making a reasonable salary, rather than a big bopper being paid 15-20% of our total financial commitment.

And to make it worse, you can't have a guy go down looking all the time in critical at-bats. It kills the team and don't be foolish and think "these guys are professionals, they don't get discouraged". It happens all the time again this isn't strato-matic it's a sport played by actual people.

Overbay is hitting .304/.394/.393 in high leverage situations, which is a sOPS+ 15% above league average. If that's discouraging our players such that they can't bring themselves to play well, we need to hire a herd of psychotherapists because our team is more fragile than a movie-set beer bottle.

[victor page]

It's simple. Offensive production is much cheaper at first base than any other position (except perhaps DH). Small or mid market teams need offense out of those positions, because they aren't often getting dynamic offense out of the positions in the middle of the field (catcher, short, second and centre). Aaron Hill's 2009 notwithstanding, you usually have to pay productive offensive players that can play these positions insane amounts of money.

Often teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can afford to carry an all glove first baseman because they have a ton of production elsewhere. I think Doug Mientklewicz was the Sox starter in 2004 when they won the Series. Before Texeira and after Giambi put away his glove, the Yanks had some stiff at first too.

Overbay's defensive numbers are good (apparently) but he does seem to boot the big one doesn't he?

I have to take your word that Overbay is hitting well in the clutch this season. I'm not sure what the definition of "high leverage" is. Anecdotally, he seems to go down looking way, way too often in key situations.

And the "O" in Lyle's OPS seems to come predominantly from walks and base hits in extremely low leverage situations. In an 6 run + game, he's like Ted Williams up there.

I'd be exceptionally surprised if Lyle ever lands a starting job in the majors after his contract ends.

[Schad]

It's simple. Offensive production is much cheaper at first base than any other position (except perhaps DH). Small or mid market teams need offense out of those positions, because they aren't often getting dynamic offense out of the positions in the middle of the field (catcher, short, second and centre). Aaron Hill's 2009 notwithstanding, you usually have to pay productive offensive players that can play these positions insane amounts of money.

Offensive production most certainly isn't cheaper at first base, it's just more common. Last year an all-hit, no-field Carlos Pena -- 39 HRs, 91 RBI, 570 PAs -- was worth 2.7 wins above replacement...Overbay was worth 2.4 WAR, and that was in 500 PAs. On a per-PA basis, Overbay actually edged Pena out in value by the smallest of margins. And Pena definitely would've gotten the bigger contract had both gone to free agency after the season, because teams an overly enamoured with positional niches.

Often teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can afford to carry an all glove first baseman because they have a ton of production elsewhere. I think Doug Mientklewicz was the Sox starter in 2004 when they won the Series. Before Texeira and after Giambi put away his glove, the Yanks had some stiff at first too.

As do we; we have the fourth most productive offense in the American League by OPS+, though we're a little lower (though above league average) in runs scored, in no small part because we get on base at an extraordinarily pathetic rate, which means a good deal of our power goes for naught. None of that is Overbay's fault, given that he's third on the team in OBP despite having an unusually bad year in that department.

Overbay's defensive numbers are good (apparently) but he does seem to boot the big one doesn't he?

No, he doesn't. Again, a couple errors in crucial situations will burn themselves into your consciousness far more than the ones that he scoops. That's natural (no one remembers the unremarkable), but it doesn't suggest a pattern.

I have to take your word that Overbay is hitting well in the clutch this season. I'm not sure what the definition of "high leverage" is. Anecdotally, he seems to go down looking way, way too often in key situations.

Key word: anecdotally. As I said, people tend to remember the things that cause an emotional response, and striking out in key situations provokes more of a response than banging out a hit.

And the "O" in Lyle's OPS seems to come predominantly from walks and base hits in extremely low leverage situations. In an 6 run + game, he's like Ted Williams up there.

Except for the stats that I just posted which shows that he gets on base at a nearly .400 clip in high-leverage situations.

I'd be exceptionally surprised if Lyle ever lands a starting job in the majors after his contract ends.

Depends on your definition of a starting job...I've been arguing for a couple years that Overbay is best in a platoon, because he's very good against right-handed pitching. I have no doubt that he'll get 500 plate appearances somewhere next year, and for probably three years thereafter.

[victor page]

Huge HR by Lyle against the Tigers yesterday - I have to give him respect for that. The Jays TV play by play guy sounded so absolutely shocked that it was funny.

I think this is a case where you can identify some specific numbers to back any argument, however ridiculous (specifically that Overbay is a good, or even average major league first baseman).

I don't see many teams in the AL for which Overbay would be an upgrade. Baltimore is one, because they have nobody. You could argue Oakland and Texas, but I doubt either would make a one for one trade for Lyle (even if contracts and ages were equal).

I don't follow the NL enough to even comment but I'd be shocked if an NL team takes a run at Lyle before or after the trade deadline as a starting 1 bagger. Even Lyle himself admitted as much anyway in his post game quote.

The ultimate deciding factor will be whether another team picks up Lyle and gives him 500 at bats next year. I think it would be absolute suicide for the team that does it but hey I've been wrong before.