Jarvis Varnado

jona187 · Post #1 » by **jona187** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 12:11 am

Has anyone heard anything on Jarvis Varnado and whether they will sign him either to the Heat or their D League team?

Miamis3rdRing · Post #2 » by **Miamis3rdRing** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 12:13 am

D-League or Europe, I'm not sure which. Edit:He won't be signed by us, for sure...though going by heat4life I guess if we really want to retain him, he could force us take him this year.

IMO we already have enough PF's (Bosh/Haslem/Howard). Great shot-blocker, and he showed some nice flashes (Jump-hook) in summer league, but overall he didn't really stand out.

He needs to bulk up

jona187 · Post #3 » by **jona187** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 12:15 am

Thanks for the quick reply.

I think he needs to work on his offensive game more and hopefully we can sign him on the D League where he can continue to develop.

Post #4 » by **heat4life** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 12:24 am

You can't sign a player to the D- League. You must sign him as one of the 15 players on your roster and only then you can assign the player to play for D- League team.

As for Europe, Miami must convince Varnado that Europe would be a good experience and get him to reject a "courtesy" contract in order for the team to be able to retain his rights. If Varnado refuses to play in Europe, then Miami would be forced to sign him for whatever and give him a shot in camp or just risk losing his rights.

Heat3 · Post #5 » by **Heat3** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:03 am

nothing kills a young player's career like being a Miami Heat 2nd round draft pick. you only survive if the Heat is bad when you are drafted and even then you are not guaranteed to stay on the team very long lol

Post #6 » by **mopper8** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:07 am

Heat3 wrote:nothing kills a young player's career like being a Miami Heat 2nd round draft pick. you only survive if the Heat is bad when you are drafted and even then you are not guaranteed to stay on the team very long lol

Really...? You act like most teams are stock full of 2nd round picks, but something like 85% of them never make it the league regardless of who picks them. We have a pretty good track record with 2nd rd and undrafted types.

Heat3 · Post #7 » by **Heat3** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:14 am

No we don't. We have a good track record with undrafted guys that have had to work to get in the league, but not drafting them. We barely have a track record with 1st round picks.

Post #8 » by **mopper8** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:18 am

Heat3 wrote:No we don't. We have a good track record with undrafted guys that have had to work to get in the league, but not drafting them. We barely have a track record with 1st round picks.

I think you guys really over-estimate the likelihood that a pick after the lottery will turn into anything in this league. The breakdown of player production by position drafted on 82 games would really open your eyes, somebody already posted it here a couple weeks ago

Post #9 » by **mopper8** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:24 am

Read this: http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

In the 2nd round, you're basically more likely than not to draft a guy who doesn't make it. The odds are awful starting at pick 15, where 45% of the picks are either deep bench players or total busts.

And we can talk about perception and what not, but Miami's picks vs their expected performance actually puts them in the top-3rd of the league in drafting:

http://82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

Heat3 · Post #10 » by **Heat3** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:24 am

Well it would be nice if we actually hit on someone past the 10th pick in 15 years. Other teams have managed to do it. Some multiple times in the 2nd round. We've hit on Wade and Butler and that's it. We've spectacularly missed on some (Wright instead of Jameer). Think of how close it could have been Bosh here instead of Wade all these years. Definitely would not be where we are at today had things gone how Riley planned.

Post #11 » by **mopper8** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:30 am

Just some quick names we grabbed in the 2nd round:

Rasual Butler (pick 53!)
Eddie House
Mario Chalmers

That's 3 guys who are legit rotation players in the NBA, all found in the 2nd round.

Post #12 » by **mopper8** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:31 am

Heat3 wrote:Well it would be nice if we actually hit on someone past the 10th pick in 15 years. Other teams have managed to do it. Some multiple times in the 2nd round. We've hit on Wade and Butler and that's it. We've spectacularly missed on some (Wright instead of Jameer). Think of how close it could have been Bosh here instead of Wade all these years. Definitely would not be where we are at today had things gone how Riley planned.

You act like Bosh has been some disappointment, or like Wade was an obvious "other" choice...a lot of people thought we were reaching for Dwyane where we took him, and had us pegged for Hinrich, TJ Ford, or Chris Kaman or even Michael Sweetney.

Post #13 » by **mopper8** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:33 am

Heat3 wrote:Well it would be nice if we actually hit on someone past the 10th pick in 15 years. Other teams have managed to do it. Some multiple times in the 2nd round. We've hit on Wade and Butler and that's it. We've spectacularly missed on some (Wright instead of Jameer). Think of how close it could have been Bosh here instead of Wade all these years. Definitely would not be where we are at today had things gone how Riley planned.

Sure, it would've been nice, but look where we drafted. Wayne SImien was what, 29th pick? Here are the career expectations of that pick: 5% star, 10% solid, 10% role player, 30% deep bench, 20% bust, 25% DNP

Just for example.

edit: as for the Dorell/Jameer pick, think about where we were then. Riles was envisioning a young rebuilding team, with D-Wade/Dorell/Caron/Odom being a huge, athletic, multi-talented quartet of players who could get up and down the floor. Then we made the trade for Shaq, Dorell got stashed, broke his collar bone, had his development sacrificed in the pursuit of a title (not a bad trade!), got injured again lol, and then finally broke out. Bad circumstances.

Tim_Hardawayy · Post #14 » by **Tim_Hardawayy** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:36 am

mopper8 wrote:Just some quick names we grabbed in the 2nd round:

Rasual Butler (pick 53!)
Eddie House
Mario Chalmers

That's 3 guys who are legit rotation players in the NBA, all found in the 2nd round.

Not to mention undrafted guys like Bowen and Haslem.

Any pick in the draft past around 10 in the NBA has an incredibly low success rate. Yeah you hope to hit on one after a while, but its like the lottery, missing 10 times in a row doesn't increase your chances of winning the 11th time.

This is why Riley treats 1st round picks as chips to use in deals rather than valuable assets he hopes to keep. He understands the odds, and the odds are you're far more likely to get a useful player out of a proven commodity than you are to hope and pray with the luck of the draft.

Heat3 · Post #15 » by **Heat3** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:36 am

And that's why I said "you only survive if the Heat is bad when you are drafted" cause those are the only guys that actually got to play and it was out of necessity. The guys drafted last year and maybe those drafted this year might never even sniff court time. Pittman is there cause we need size but we'll see how long he's here.

As for the stats you posted, while I find it interesting that we are considered that good you have to take into account that it takes in all data going back to 1989. This includes guys like Glen Rice and Steve Smith. Both pre-Riley guys. We had good rotation guys like Matt Geiger and even Kurt Thomas who has had a great career even though he hasn't been a "star". All pre-Riley which heavily skews the data.

Edit: was replying to mopper, not timmy

Edit Again: I think the stats don't take into account guys that we drafted but traded away on draft night. Like Thornton which must really skew the data

heat shadow · Post #16 » by **heat shadow** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:52 am

mopper8 wrote:Just some quick names we grabbed in the 2nd round:

Rasual Butler (pick 53!)
Eddie House
Mario Chalmers

That's 3 guys who are legit rotation players in the NBA, all found in the 2nd round.

I've always wondered if it was the quality of these second round players selected or the ability of our staff to develop these players. Jerome Beasley looked like he had great potential, but I can't remember him playing. Was he not trainable? One of my favorites back in the day, Matt Geiger ended up having a decent career. Was he undervalued?

desert_scar · Post #17 » by **desert_scar** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 4:58 am

heat4life wrote:You can't sign a player to the D- League. You must sign him as one of the 15 players on your roster and only then you can assign the player to play for D- League team.

As for Europe, Miami must convince Varnado that Europe would be a good experience and get him to reject a "courtesy" contract in order for the team to be able to retain his rights. If Varnado refuses to play in Europe, then Miami would be forced to sign him for whatever and give him a shot in camp or just risk losing his rights.

The 1st part is true, but misleading. The d-league is the top league in North America that isn't the NBA, and players can seek independent contracts there (only a couple per d league team have NBA tea contracts). Lots of players, including 2nd round picks, sign there with the hope of NBA call ups.

The Heat have the rights to Vernado and Butler (+Beverley and Dozier too) for 1 year post the draft or 1 year + their last pro contract ended, whichever is later. As long as they are playing bball for pay somewhere--the d league, Europe, or other, the Heat are the only NBA team that can sign them.

Butler is a little trickier. Because there is a risk he sits out a year rehabbing and would be a free agent--but I don't see the others out of pro bball, they need a paycheck and are trying to prove to the NBA they can make it.

BigBallingMIA · Post #18 » by **BigBallingMIA** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 5:14 am

The stats don't mold the truth, the truth molds the stats.

The Heat have been pretty crappy (to say the least) at drafting since D-Wade has arrived.

Want proof? Check out our projected starting lineup next year. That's all the proof you need.

MartyConlonJr · Post #19 » by **MartyConlonJr** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 5:49 am

I wouldn't be surprised if we have two 2nd round picks we drafted start for us next season. How many other teams have that?

-MK- · Post #20 » by **-MK-** » Tue Jul 27, 2010 6:47 am

Heat3 wrote:Edit Again: I think the stats don't take into account guys that we drafted but traded away on draft night. Like Thornton which must really skew the data

That's a good thing and does the exact opposite of skewing the data. Because if we traded them away on draft night its very likely that the other team told us who to draft. So that would be an indication of other the team's drafting skill/luck, not our. And if I remember correctly, all reports indicated that's exactly what happened with the Thornton situation and if we hadn't that done that trade, the pick would have been someone else.