Retro Player of the Year Project

[semi-sentient]

Another slight correction... Magic had an epic game 6, not game 7.

[Optimism Prime]

Another slight correction... Magic had an epic game 6, not game 7.

NUH-UH, EPIC PERFORMANCES ONLY HAPPEN IN GAME SEVENS COZ THE STAKES ARE HIGHER

/green

[andykeikei]

Another corrections, Moses's pic in 82 should have a rocket jersey, not sixers jersey. I know I am a geek ...LOL

Please keep up the good work guys. I want to participate too but I just don't have enough knowledge to contribute.

[Doctor MJ]

Another corrections, Moses's pic in 82 should have a rocket jersey, not sixers jersey. I know I am a geek ...LOL

Please keep up the good work guys. I want to participate too but I just don't have enough knowledge to contribute.

Sentient's indicated that it would be a pain to allow multiple images for the same guy.

[Dr Positivity]

Always find it interesting how small the gap between Wilt, West, etc. being in the league and the start of Magic, Bird, Jordan's times really is. Only 6 and 7 years between West and Wilt's retirements and Magic/Bird's rookie years. Basically from now back to 2003-2004 is the equivalent. And the gap between Wilt and Jordan being in the league is less than from now to Jordan's retirement. I think the old games being in B&W or crappy tvs makes the gap seem bigger than it is.

Good proof against the people who say the 60s players would get smoked by present day players, really the gap between them and the Jordan, Hakeem, etc. era is quite small, like comparing Dwight Howard to Patrick Ewing and saying "Ewing would get smoked!" because of superior present day athleticism

[ElGee]

Always find it interesting how small the gap between Wilt, West, etc. being in the league and the start of Magic, Bird, Jordan's times really is. Only 6 and 7 years between West and Wilt's retirements and Magic/Bird's rookie years. Basically from now back to 2003-2004 is the equivalent. And the gap between Wilt and Jordan being in the league is less than from now to Jordan's retirement. I think the old games being in B&W or crappy tvs makes the gap seem bigger than it is.

Good proof against the people who say the 60s players would get smoked by present day players, really the gap between them and the Jordan, Hakeem, etc. era is quite small, like comparing Dwight Howard to Patrick Ewing and saying "Ewing would get smoked!" because of superior present day athleticism

I disagree with this, and think there are differences which are important to note for the purpose of the project. I don't know how that relates to cross-era comparisons, and for this project it doesn't matter. But I do think the game change infinitely more from 1960 to 1980 than from 1990 to 2010.

Talent Pool

The league went from something like 15% black to 75% black rapidly, after the lifting of racial barriers.

The economics of the sport changed rapidly as well, as the average salaries grew rapidly along with television exposure/increased attendance of the league. I can't seem to find the link I had detailing this - sorry - but for comparison, the average salary increased ~15% per year in the salary cap era (post 1984). From 1967 to 1970, it doubled ($20k to 40k), then more than double ($40k to 90k) by 1972.

All of that led to an increased talent pool size, which increased height (although TrueLAFan disagrees with me on how much, I think) and athleticism, to a certain degree.

Rules/Strategy

Couple that with the rule changes -- 3 second area, 3-point line and enforcement of contact on defense -- and the changes they dictated in the evolution of offensive and defensive scheme, and again, I think the change from 1970 to 1990 was a lot different than the change from 90-today.

The NBA in the 1960s was a league with less emphasis on defensive strategy/individual defensive performance. Teams jacked up (poor) shots at an alarming rate. It was a low-percentage league. There were very few players who even attempted to use the dribble-drive offensively.

--

Why does that matter on a year-by-year basis? Only in that someone like Bill Russell was able to affect a game more significantly with defense and outlet passes (for high percentage fast breaks) in the 1960s more than anyone since, and I don't think it's close. I used to think that Russell not being a driving offensive force rendered him overrated. I have come to rethink that after watching more old games. But more on that when we get to the 60s...

[Doctor MJ]

Officially adding ThaRegul8r to the project.

[Doctor MJ]

Some stuff y'all might find interesting now that we're at about the halfway point:

Top 10 of the 00's:

Code: Select all

   Player           Shares
1. Tim Duncan       5.149
2. Shaquille O'Neal 3.823
3. Kobe Bryant      3.659
4. Kevin Garnett    3.352
5. LeBron James     2.267
6. Dwyane Wade      1.511
7. Dirk Nowitzki    1.321
8. Steve Nash       1.213
9. Chris Paul       0.688
10. Tracy McGrady   0.613


Top 10 of the 90's:

Code: Select all

   Player           Shares
1. Michael Jordan   6.834
2. Karl Malone      4.095
3. Hakeem Olajuwon  3.103
4. David Robinson   2.418
5. Shaquille O'Neal 2.086
6. Magic Johnson    1.482
7. Charles Barkley  1.459
8. Patrick Ewing    1.031
9. Tim Duncan       1.004
10. Clyde Drexler   0.481


Top 10 of the 80's:

Code: Select all

   Player              Shares
1. Larry Bird          6.147
2. Magic Johnson       5.632
3. Moses Malone        2.949
4. Michael Jordan      2.745
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 2.238
6. Julius Erving       1.956
7. Hakeem Olajuwon     1.279
8. Sidney Moncrief     0.617
9. Charles Barkley     0.570
10. Bernard King       0.453


Also, we've had 5 players who've been "Player of the Decade", where a "decade" is any group of 10 consecutive years: Duncan, Shaq, Jordan, Magic, and Bird. Looks to me like the next will be Kareem - he'll prevent Moses from ever rising to the top. If Kobe does as well next year as he did this year, he'll join the club.

[semi-sentient]

Another corrections, Moses's pic in 82 should have a rocket jersey, not sixers jersey. I know I am a geek ...LOL

Please keep up the good work guys. I want to participate too but I just don't have enough knowledge to contribute.

Sentient's indicated that it would be a pain to allow multiple images for the same guy.

Just saw this, but I updated the code to add an exception for Moses so that his 81-82 pic is with the Rockets jersey. While I don't have the data structure set up to support this, I can make exceptions in the code since this won't happen all that often.

I've also added an exception for Kareem. I won't be able to do that with Wilt until he's in the system (I add players as they get votes), but I've already got the pics I plan on using for him ready.

[Doctor MJ]

Just saw this, but I updated the code to add an exception for Moses so that his 81-82 pic is with the Rockets jersey. While I don't have the data structure set up to support this, I can make exceptions in the code since this won't happen all that often.

I've also added an exception for Kareem. I won't be able to do that with Wilt until he's in the system (I add players as they get votes), but I've already got the pics I plan on using for him ready.

Cool! Appreciate the time you're putting into this sentient.

[Dr Positivity]

Looks like Moses will do worse in this competition than where he's usually ranked on our lists. 3.5 has him 9th right now with Kareem, Erving, Russell, Mikan, West, Oscar lurking + Hondo, Cowens, Cousy, Baylor having shots.

Makes sense, he had a high peak, but lasted way too short. Just 79-83, really. He's the anti Karl Malone, fittingly. Looks to me like the two Malones will switch places from where we normally rank them (Moses in the 10-13 mix, Karl 15ish)

[Jimmy76]

Looks like Moses will do worse in this competition than where he's usually ranked on our lists. 3.5 has him 9th right now with Kareem, Erving, Russell, Mikan, West, Oscar lurking + Hondo, Cowens, Cousy, Baylor having shots.

Makes sense, he had a high peak, but lasted way too short. Just 79-83, really. He's the anti Karl Malone, fittingly. Looks to me like the two Malones will switch places from where we normally rank them (Moses in the 10-13 mix, Karl 15ish)

longevity will beat out peak in this kind of thing

[Dr Positivity]

Which is funny because Moses had one of the longest careers of anyone (20 years, top 5 in games and minutes played). But he was MVP caliber for only a quarter of it

[TrueLAfan]

Player that has surprised me the most: George Gervin. I'we always consdiered Gervin to be below
Clyde Drexler. But, as I said on one of the season vote listings, I keep putting him high up. And I'm not alone. He's got about 1.6 total win shares, ahead of guy like Dirk and Ewing and Nash and Payton. He's going to get a little more than that in in the next year or two. He'll probably make the overall Top 25. Looking at the way I rank him is making me rethink the way I look at players. Like most people, I like completeness in ballplayers...guys that can do it all. Gervin had holes in his game. But what he did well was very, very valuable, and I'm going to remember that when I think about him (and others) from now on. If nothing else, this has made this entire exercise worth it for me personally...I've learned something new.

Player that is going to end up doing really, really well: Julius Erving. Sure, people think of Doctor J as as an elite player. Doc's NBA total is going to be around 2.8 POY shares—comfortably ahead of, say David Robinson. And then we've got his ABA career where he was … better. I don't think people often appreciate that not only was Julius Erving really, really good (incredibly high peak), he had terrific longetivity (My guess is that he'll receive POY votes in something like 10 or 11 seasons over a 12 year period—that's awesome). Fearless prediction: Dr. J will get at least 2 more POY shares in his ABA years, which will put him ahead of Karl Malone, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Kobe Bryant. That's exactly how good he was.

The Big Battle: Kareem vs. MJ. As of now (1977, and I'm guessing at the 1977 totals), Kareem has about 4.5 win shares. He needs to pick up about 5 more in his next 7 seasons to pass Michael Jordan. It's going to be very, very close.

[Dr Positivity]

I think Kareem will get there, but it won't be as astronomical a number as I expected at the start of the competition. Partly because while he was awesome in his post prime 82-86, the overall POY numbers for that period only made up something like .6 combined, a little more than half of one of his or Jordan's big years. So he has about 12 prime years which is really awesome, but not a league above Magic and Jordan. Or Russell, who I'm guessing makes top 3 13 years straight. If he averages .75 a year it'd = 9.75. So he's in the mix for #1. I think the top of the leaderboard is going to end up looking like my ATL list - With the 3 "dominated their era" players Russell, Kareem, MJ all but tied at the top, then Magic and Duncan as the "best of the era but didn't clearly separate themselves from Shaq/Bird" following, and then Wilt, Bird, Shaq, Dr. J? as the "2nd best of their era but still SICK" close enough to Magic/Duncan, with Wilt maybe ahead of Duncan. And then everyone else

[Dr Positivity]

Yeah I'm definitely predicting Russell beats MJ's 9.6, dunno where Kareem ends up but I think they'll be 1 and 2. I think the key for Russel is he'll almost never dip below .650+. He'll get beat by Pettit his title year, Wilt in 67, Cousy his rookie season. But he'll still get almost all the 2nd place votes these years which is good for .650+. I guess Wilt and Oscar's early 60s stats years will get votes matching him, but again, he'll probably get as many #1s in these years as #3s so he'll still be .650 at worst. .650 * 13 = 8.45 in its own and of course half his seasons he's getting a lot more than .650. 59 is a 1.000, then there's 68 and 69 where he ate Wilt's soul and a hell lot more title years where even if he loses out to Wilt's stats (something I doubt), it'll be "7 1st place votes, 15 2nd place votes" type ballots

[JordansBulls]

Yeah I'm definitely predicting Russell beats MJ's 9.6, dunno where Kareem ends up but I think they'll be 1 and 2. I think the key for Russel is he'll almost never dip below .650+. He'll get beat by Pettit his title year, Wilt in 67, Cousy his rookie season. But he'll still get almost all the 2nd place votes these years which is good for .650+. I guess Wilt and Oscar's early 60s stats years will get votes matching him, but again, he'll probably get as many #1s in these years as #3s so he'll still be .650 at worst. .650 * 13 = 8.45 in its own and of course half his seasons he's getting a lot more than .650. 59 is a 1.000, then there's 68 and 69 where he ate Wilt's soul and a hell lot more title years where even if he loses out to Wilt's stats (something I doubt), it'll be "7 1st place votes, 15 2nd place votes" type ballots

Depends though because you look at 1968 Russell wasn't even top 20 in PER and was #16 in Win Shares not to mention wasn't top 5 in MVP voting either.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... aders.html

[JordansBulls]

I think Kareem will get there, but it won't be as astronomical a number as I expected at the start of the competition. Partly because while he was awesome in his post prime 82-86, the overall POY numbers for that period only made up something like .6 combined, a little more than half of one of his or Jordan's big years. So he has about 12 prime years which is really awesome, but not a league above Magic and Jordan. Or Russell, who I'm guessing makes top 3 13 years straight. If he averages .75 a year it'd = 9.75. So he's in the mix for #1. I think the top of the leaderboard is going to end up looking like my ATL list - With the 3 "dominated their era" players Russell, Kareem, MJ all but tied at the top, then Magic and Duncan as the "best of the era but didn't clearly separate themselves from Shaq/Bird" following, and then Wilt, Bird, Shaq, Dr. J? as the "2nd best of their era but still SICK" close enough to Magic/Duncan, with Wilt maybe ahead of Duncan. And then everyone else

Are we going back to 1952 as bball reference has numbers till then?

Only thing with MJ is that he essentially missed 3 years that he couldn't be included on any ballot. 1986 (injured all year), 1994 (absolute prime) and 1995 (only played 17 games). That would be at least another 2.0 to his total.

[JordansBulls]

Looks like Moses will do worse in this competition than where he's usually ranked on our lists. 3.5 has him 9th right now with Kareem, Erving, Russell, Mikan, West, Oscar lurking + Hondo, Cowens, Cousy, Baylor having shots.

Makes sense, he had a high peak, but lasted way too short. Just 79-83, really. He's the anti Karl Malone, fittingly. Looks to me like the two Malones will switch places from where we normally rank them (Moses in the 10-13 mix, Karl 15ish)

I've actually curios on how Walt Frazier does. I have him picked a few times as #1.


The link to show the reference to ABA/NBA combined.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1004743&start=721

[Manuel Calavera]

Looks like Moses will do worse in this competition than where he's usually ranked on our lists. 3.5 has him 9th right now with Kareem, Erving, Russell, Mikan, West, Oscar lurking + Hondo, Cowens, Cousy, Baylor having shots.

Makes sense, he had a high peak, but lasted way too short. Just 79-83, really. He's the anti Karl Malone, fittingly. Looks to me like the two Malones will switch places from where we normally rank them (Moses in the 10-13 mix, Karl 15ish)

I've actually curios on how Walt Frazier does. I have him picked a few times as #1.


The link to show the reference to ABA/NBA combined.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1004743&start=721