Predict the Eastern Conference Standings

[verbal8]

ESPN ranks the East - Wizards at 9th

Fair ranking, seeds 7 & 8 are up for grabs IMO.

I think the 7 to 10 range will be pretty close. I would probably include the Pistons rather than the Pacers. I think the Pacers are like the Wizards at the beginning of the season where they look decent on paper, but will be a lot worse. I don't see the Sixers staying in the play-off chase for very long. At first I thought that 30 wins for the Cavs was about right, but that would be if it was only LeBron that they lost.

They lost West, Big Z and Shaq also. I really don't see them as being that much better than the Twolves last year.

Mo Williams >> Flynn
A. Parker = C. Brewer
J. Moon < Gomes
Jaimison/Hickson < Jefferson/Love
A. Varejo >> Darko
Sessions = Sessions
Hollins = Hollins
D. Gibson < D. Wilkins

[Higga]

1. Miami
2. Orlando
3. Boston
4. Chicago
5. Atlanta
6. Milwaukee
7. New York
8. Washington

[Kanyewest]

9. New York - Anthony Randolph will be a breakout star but their backcourt is ugh at best. Felton will not be answer at PG.

I was actually surprised to see that Felton shot 38.5% from 3 point range, granted he shot less than 2 attempts a game. I'll be interested to see if Felton's numbers and productivity will be inflated in D'Antoni's system. But yeah, I can't think of a team whose best backcourt player who isn't better than Felton.

[KickTheFlame]

1.) Miami- If they don’t win the title this year, it will be the biggest upset in the history of sports.
2.) Orlando- This is pretty much the same team from last year except maybe slightly worse on paper. The development of Dwight Howard will continue to the answer as to how far this team can go.
3.) Chicago- Much improved from last year. They have as good a chance as anyone to beat Miami.
4.) Milwaukee- Another team that is improved from last year. If they can stay healthy and Brandon Jennings continues to improve, they have a shot at a #2 seed. Remember this team was extremely good until Bogut’s injury near the end of the year.
5.) Boston- They had a great playoff performance, but didn’t perform to expectations in the regular season. I expect the same this year which could drop them all the way to a #7 seed.
6.) Atlanta- I’d put them above Boston except for the fact I hear Horford is expected to play a lot of Power Forward this season. Does that mean Josh Smith will be moved to small forward? Not a good look for him.
7.) New York- Much improved from last year, but the health of Amare Stoudemire is the real question mark.
8.) Cleveland- The only thing making the Cavs not a lock for the playoffs is the lack of a competent starting small forward.
9.) Detroit- Injuries decimated this team last year. At full health, they’ll compete for a playoff spot.
10.) Charlotte- Only got worse on paper during the off season. They’ll stay competitive though even if they don’t make the playoffs.
11.) Washington- Can Gilbert Arenas be the effective scorer that he used to be? Can Andray Blatch continue last year’s success? Can John Wall keep turnovers to a minimum? If the answers are yes, they’ll make the playoffs.
12.) Indiana- Pretty much the same team as last year with big question marks at the point guard position.
13.) New Jersey- This team should have been much better than what they were last season. If Devin Harris can return to form, they won’t be a competing for worst record in the league.
14.) Philadelphia- Just not enough talent to be competitive this year.
15.) Toronto- Still will be the worst defensive team in the league, but without the offensive prowess of Chris Bosh. Will be a long year.

[Dat2U]

9. New York - Anthony Randolph will be a breakout star but their backcourt is ugh at best. Felton will not be answer at PG.

I was actually surprised to see that Felton shot 38.5% from 3 point range, granted he shot less than 2 attempts a game. I'll be interested to see if Felton's numbers and productivity will be inflated in D'Antoni's system. But yeah, I can't think of a team whose best backcourt player who isn't better than Felton.

Felton will have all the opportunity in the world. I just don't think he's the man for the job. D'Antoni wants his PG to consistently make good decisions. That's just something Felton has done up to this point in his career. I can see D'Antoni getting frustrated very quickly.

Indiana might have a worse backcourt. Minnesota is pretty bad as well.

[Kanyewest]

Tier 1
4. Boston - Shaq won't help, Jermaine if he's healthy will. Still need to find a quality backup for Pierce.

In the regular season, it could be the case but in the playoff, I still think the Celtics could be a threat. The only thing holding me back in saying that they will be a threat is whether Perkins returns back to 100% from his knee injury (he never had great ups to begin with, just needs to get back banging in the post).

The problem with Shaq with the Cavs was that he was rusty going into the postseason since he had missed several games due to an injury. Shaq had to adapt to playing with Jamison who he hadn't played with at all, whose games don't mesh that well IMO. Jamison is best served scoring in the paint, he is too inconsistent from 3 point range to be relied upon consistently. That and the fact that defenses collapsed the paint because of LeBron and "his elbow" hurt Shaq's game.

I also think Doc Rivers will get Shaq to check his ego at the door. The Celtics were probably the best passing team in the NBA last season. The Celtics, if Perkins is healthy, are a bit deeper when it comes to big men. The fact that they are less likely to rely on Shelden Williams should make the Celtics a better team when it comes down to the playoffs.

[Kanyewest]

Indiana might have a worse backcourt. Minnesota is pretty bad as well.

I was thinking about Minnesotta having Rubio in a year. I would probably take Flynn over Felton simply because he's younger and has a larger chance to improve his game. Corey Brewer is a good role-playing shooting guard at the right price. I wonder if Indiana actually considers Paul George as someone who can play alongside Danny Granger but yeah, Indiana's pgs aren't anything great.

[JonathanJoseph]

I'll bite during the offseason doldrums

1) Orlando- Still the class of the EC. There's a reason that Boston picked up Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal. You need size to beat the Magic.
2) Miami- Bosh is overrated, but Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem are 2 of the best role players in the NBA. A perfect fit. Miami would disappoint if not for those 2.
3) Boston- They may not finish this high during the regular season, but this is where they'll be come playoff time. A lot depends on KG's knee.
4) Chicago- The Noah/Boozer front is overrated, but their depth and having a shooter like Korver to open up the lane for Rose is underrated
5) Atlanta- They are a good team, but they've peaked until they make a significant move. They may fall farther than this
6) Les Boulez- Yeah. I said it. Flip Saunders has won 50 with less talent than he has this season.
7) Milwaukee- Love Jennings, Bogut and Salmons and Skiles on the bench, but not sure how the other pieces fit together. Skiles gets the most out of his teams but I'm not sure how much more they can do beyond what we saw last season.
8) Charlotte- They overachieved last year and I'd pick them to drop out of the playoffs, but I think Shaun Livingston is the wild card. Don't be surprised when Livingston wins comeback player of the year and the Bobcats march up to the 5th/6th seed.

9) NYK- Amare is good, but for a guy who doesn't defend or rebound (as well as he should), I think he takes a step back without Steve Nash. Felton seems like a bizarre fit and Anthony Randolph isn't ready.
10) Philly- Doug Collins will get the most out of that talent but Turner will struggle
11) Detroit- A mishmash of random talent but not much upside or flexibility. Joe Dumars has gone from genius to dunce in a short amount of time.
12) Indiana- No idea what Larry Bird is doing over there.
13) NJ- Favors looks like a bust to me so far. Passing on Cousins will haunt that franchise
14) Toronto- Start from scratch. Colangelo is another exec who goes from genius to dunce in no time flat
15) Cleveland- Like the Wiz in 08, knowing you have no chance is mentally deflating and will end the season before it starts. This will be ugly.

[pancakes3]

i'm with JJ

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/stor ... tStandings

but apparently nobody else believes that the wiz are a playoff team. i just don't think milwaukee or charlotte are better than us. at all. am i taking crazy pills? brandon jennings/bogut doesn't scare me, and neither does gerald wallace and a bunch of rag tags. we've got gil areans (solid all-nba 3rd teamer candidate), the lauded "best pg prospect since jason kidd" coming in who is at least going to be as good as jennins (imo better) as well as josh howard and andray blatche. i mean... we're at least in the mix for 6-8 right?

[verbal8]

i'm with JJ

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/stor ... tStandings

but apparently nobody else believes that the wiz are a playoff team. i just don't think milwaukee or charlotte are better than us. at all. am i taking crazy pills? brandon jennings/bogut doesn't scare me, and neither does gerald wallace and a bunch of rag tags. we've got gil areans (solid all-nba 3rd teamer candidate), the lauded "best pg prospect since jason kidd" coming in who is at least going to be as good as jennins (imo better) as well as josh howard and andray blatche. i mean... we're at least in the mix for 6-8 right?

I think the Wizards will be a lot better the 2nd half of the season than the first. I think the beginning of the season will be tough(Arenas rusty, no Josh Howard, Wall adjusting to the pro game) and they will come on strong at the end. However I think they end up falling just short of the play-offs.

[closg00]

i'm with JJ

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/stor ... tStandings

but apparently nobody else believes that the wiz are a playoff team. i just don't think milwaukee or charlotte are better than us. at all. am i taking crazy pills? brandon jennings/bogut doesn't scare me, and neither does gerald wallace and a bunch of rag tags. we've got gil areans (solid all-nba 3rd teamer candidate), the lauded "best pg prospect since jason kidd" coming in who is at least going to be as good as jennins (imo better) as well as josh howard and andray blatche. i mean... we're at least in the mix for 6-8 right?

Disagree, I would mos-def put the Bucks ahead of us with Bogut back and Wood gone. Seeds 1-6 are a lock and a surprise team or two will be stronger than anticipated. I would be thrilled to be in the hunt for an 8th seed at the end of the season.

[mohammed10]

By the way, would Cleveland going from 1 seed to the bottom of the conference be the first time that has ever happened in the NBA or any sport?

Dunno, but I am sure gonna enjoy watching the free fall

[fishercob]

i'm with JJ

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/stor ... tStandings

but apparently nobody else believes that the wiz are a playoff team. i just don't think milwaukee or charlotte are better than us. at all. am i taking crazy pills? brandon jennings/bogut doesn't scare me, and neither does gerald wallace and a bunch of rag tags. we've got gil areans (solid all-nba 3rd teamer candidate), the lauded "best pg prospect since jason kidd" coming in who is at least going to be as good as jennins (imo better) as well as josh howard and andray blatche. i mean... we're at least in the mix for 6-8 right?

Defense.

Defense, defense, defense, defense, DEFENSE!

It's half the game, but it's harder to quantify and not as entertaining to the masses so it's always glossed over.

Charlotte and Milwaukee were the two best defensive teams in the NBA last year. Milwaukee was teraing up the league after the break last year before Bogut's nasty injury ruined their season. Now he's back healthy, they've added Maggette and Gooden, stolen Jon Brockman, and drafted Larry Sanders. No reason to expect their D to be any worse, and their offense (23rd) should be much better. Fear the Deer.

Charlotte lost Felton and Chandler (who was hurt all year and averaged just 23 sucky minutes in 50 games) and replaced them with Livingston -- who I dont think any of us would be shocked to see succeed for Larry Brown. Looks like Dampier is there for the year too, and he should do just fine. They're going to score 85 a night, but they'll only give up 84 and will be an absolute bitch to play.

The Wizards will need a lot more of what those teams have to grow up and be taken seriously by the league. They're going to be exciting as all get-out this year, but ae going to be absolutely hammerred by physical teams that can defend.

[hands11]

i'm with JJ

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/stor ... tStandings

but apparently nobody else believes that the wiz are a playoff team. i just don't think milwaukee or charlotte are better than us. at all. am i taking crazy pills? brandon jennings/bogut doesn't scare me, and neither does gerald wallace and a bunch of rag tags. we've got gil areans (solid all-nba 3rd teamer candidate), the lauded "best pg prospect since jason kidd" coming in who is at least going to be as good as jennins (imo better) as well as josh howard and andray blatche. i mean... we're at least in the mix for 6-8 right?

Defense.

Defense, defense, defense, defense, DEFENSE!

It's half the game, but it's harder to quantify and not as entertaining to the masses so it's always glossed over.

Charlotte and Milwaukee were the two best defensive teams in the NBA last year. Milwaukee was teraing up the league after the break last year before Bogut's nasty injury ruined their season. Now he's back healthy, they've added Maggette and Gooden, stolen Jon Brockman, and drafted Larry Sanders. No reason to expect their D to be any worse, and their offense (23rd) should be much better. Fear the Deer.

Charlotte lost Felton and Chandler (who was hurt all year and averaged just 23 sucky minutes in 50 games) and replaced them with Livingston -- who I dont think any of us would be shocked to see succeed for Larry Brown. Looks like Dampier is there for the year too, and he should do just fine. They're going to score 85 a night, but they'll only give up 84 and will be an absolute bitch to play.

The Wizards will need a lot more of what those teams have to grow up and be taken seriously by the league. They're going to be exciting as all get-out this year, but ae going to be absolutely hammered by physical teams that can defend.

In part because we are rolling the dice big time going with McGee, Seraphin, Booker and Armstrong. Until mini camp, we just don't have any known defense there. Well except we should know what we have in Armstrong.

But the big one is rolling with Booker over a Singleton when those other guys are all you have. Book may have the upside advantage but we don't have enough to go on right now.

So until we know better what the strategy is, it's hard to predict what we will be this year.
Is this a throw away year where they just want these guys to fight for it and gain experience or are they going to hedge more toward wanting to have a known defender/rebounder down there and letting them come along more slowly.

That is the big question in my eyes. It could make a 10-15 game difference. Post defense is that big a deal IMO.

If AT returns to his best form and is consistent defensively. If Seraphin can rebound/defend and take up space with his body and if Armstrong can give us solid minutes the same way, we could be really good. Or if we use Dray down there because Yi is producing at PF. Or if Yi can play some defensive center. If not, we could only win 30 games. There is a big swing in wins depending on how this works out. I need at least some pre-season to see what they are trying to do.

[JonathanJoseph]

Defense.

Defense, defense, defense, defense, DEFENSE!

It's half the game, but it's harder to quantify and not as entertaining to the masses so it's always glossed over.

Charlotte and Milwaukee were the two best defensive teams in the NBA last year. Milwaukee was teraing up the league after the break last year before Bogut's nasty injury ruined their season. Now he's back healthy, they've added Maggette and Gooden, stolen Jon Brockman, and drafted Larry Sanders. No reason to expect their D to be any worse, and their offense (23rd) should be much better. Fear the Deer.

Charlotte lost Felton and Chandler (who was hurt all year and averaged just 23 sucky minutes in 50 games) and replaced them with Livingston -- who I dont think any of us would be shocked to see succeed for Larry Brown. Looks like Dampier is there for the year too, and he should do just fine. They're going to score 85 a night, but they'll only give up 84 and will be an absolute bitch to play.

The Wizards will need a lot more of what those teams have to grow up and be taken seriously by the league. They're going to be exciting as all get-out this year, but ae going to be absolutely hammerred by physical teams that can defend.

Fishercob,

Not trying to pick on you or anyone else, but this is what I refer to as an example of a Pavlovian Wizards-fan answer.

Most of the responses I see, regardless of topic, tend to stay within the themes (myths) of:

1) The Wizards are years away because they are rebuilding a 26 win team
2) If it can go wrong, it will
3) The Wiz are an awful defensive team

These are things we've been thoroughly conditioned to believe after the past 5 or so seasons.

Except the reality is we aren't a bad defensive team at all.

The Wiz finished 16th overall in points against last season, and that includes big playing time for one of the worst defensive players in the NBA (Jamison), a guy who didn't bother putting forth any effort on the defensive end (Butler) and playing large stretches with Javale McGee and Fab Oberto guarding opposing centers while Earl Boykins and Randy Foye guarded opposing PGs. And Shaun Livingston, for as incredibly as he played at times, was still missing most of his lateral quickness.

If you take last year's roster as the baseline, would you not agree that we have dramatically upgraded the defensive talent on the roster? Sure, Arenas is still a big question mark, but the additions of Wall, Hinrich, Seraphin and Booker (who has a chance to be one of the elite defenders in the NBA) give this team a big upgrade in defensive talent. And I think McGee is going to make big strides in his post defense (not saying much given how bad he was last year) which says nothing of him rapidly becoming the NBA's best shot blocker (something that can partially make up for poor post defense).

If we can assume a small to modest improvement on the defensive end, the Wiz would be an above-average defensive team. Is that fair?

Defense is still the question mark, because I sure expect the Wizards to become an elite (yes, elite) offense very quickly. To me, elite offense and above average defense is more than enough to become lower seed playoff team with room on the upside.

[closg00]

Fishercob,

Not trying to pick on you or anyone else, but this is what I refer to as an example of a Pavlovian Wizards-fan answer.

Most of the responses I see, regardless of topic, tend to stay within the themes (myths) of:

1) The Wizards are years away because they are rebuilding a 26 win team
2) If it can go wrong, it will
3) The Wiz are an awful defensive team

These are things we've been thoroughly conditioned to believe after the past 5 or so seasons.

Except the reality is we aren't a bad defensive team at all.

The Wiz finished 16th overall in points against last season, and that includes big playing time for one of the worst defensive players in the NBA (Jamison), a guy who didn't bother putting forth any effort on the defensive end (Butler) and playing large stretches with Javale McGee and Fab Oberto guarding opposing centers while Earl Boykins and Randy Foye guarded opposing PGs. And Shaun Livingston, for as incredibly as he played at times, was still missing most of his lateral quickness.

If you take last year's roster as the baseline, would you not agree that we have dramatically upgraded the defensive talent on the roster? Sure, Arenas is still a big question mark, but the additions of Wall, Hinrich, Seraphin and Booker (who has a chance to be one of the elite defenders in the NBA) give this team a big upgrade in defensive talent. And I think McGee is going to make big strides in his post defense (not saying much given how bad he was last year) which says nothing of him rapidly becoming the NBA's best shot blocker (something that can partially make up for poor post defense).

If we can assume a small to modest improvement on the defensive end, the Wiz would be an above-average defensive team. Is that fair?

Defense is still the question mark, because I sure expect the Wizards to become an elite (yes, elite) offense very quickly. To me, elite offense and above average defense is more than enough to become lower seed playoff team with room on the upside.

I wouldn't agree because:

* We have lost our defensive anchor in Brendan Haywood.
* Our Front court is still soft, something that makes a big difference during a slowed-down playoff series. Seraphin & Booker's playing-time are likely to be very limited this year.
*No-doubt Wall will be a game-changer, but let's wait and see how Gil at SG is going to work and how-quickly Wall and the other new players pick-up Flips offense before declaring that we will be elite offensively.

A #9 ranking is pretty fair. If all things do line-up like you say, I still think that would put us amongst the teams fighting for that 8th seed...and that would be a nice achievement for a newly rebuilt team.

[no D in Hibachi]

Disagree, I would mos-def put the Bucks ahead of us with Bogut back and Wood gone. Seeds 1-6 are a lock and a surprise team or two will be stronger than anticipated. I would be thrilled to be in the hunt for an 8th seed at the end of the season.

I agree the Bucks get way over-looked. They have a top 3 center, more offensive fire-power than last year, and Jennings will be more efficient than last year. Plus, they are about as good a defensive team I've seen in a while. Rememeber last year towards the end of the season when the Wizards played the Bucks on back to backs? They murdered the Wiz. It was the worst beat down of the season except for the Spurs beat down in November. They suffocate teams but they also have 4 pretty good offensive players in Jennings, Bogut, Salmons, and Maggette. I see them ending up 4th in the east with the Bulls ending 5th and the Hawks 6th.

[hands11]

Defense.

Defense, defense, defense, defense, DEFENSE!

It's half the game, but it's harder to quantify and not as entertaining to the masses so it's always glossed over.

Charlotte and Milwaukee were the two best defensive teams in the NBA last year. Milwaukee was teraing up the league after the break last year before Bogut's nasty injury ruined their season. Now he's back healthy, they've added Maggette and Gooden, stolen Jon Brockman, and drafted Larry Sanders. No reason to expect their D to be any worse, and their offense (23rd) should be much better. Fear the Deer.

Charlotte lost Felton and Chandler (who was hurt all year and averaged just 23 sucky minutes in 50 games) and replaced them with Livingston -- who I dont think any of us would be shocked to see succeed for Larry Brown. Looks like Dampier is there for the year too, and he should do just fine. They're going to score 85 a night, but they'll only give up 84 and will be an absolute bitch to play.

The Wizards will need a lot more of what those teams have to grow up and be taken seriously by the league. They're going to be exciting as all get-out this year, but ae going to be absolutely hammerred by physical teams that can defend.

Fishercob,

Not trying to pick on you or anyone else, but this is what I refer to as an example of a Pavlovian Wizards-fan answer.

Most of the responses I see, regardless of topic, tend to stay within the themes (myths) of:

1) The Wizards are years away because they are rebuilding a 26 win team
2) If it can go wrong, it will
3) The Wiz are an awful defensive team

These are things we've been thoroughly conditioned to believe after the past 5 or so seasons.

Except the reality is we aren't a bad defensive team at all.

The Wiz finished 16th overall in points against last season, and that includes big playing time for one of the worst defensive players in the NBA (Jamison), a guy who didn't bother putting forth any effort on the defensive end (Butler) and playing large stretches with Javale McGee and Fab Oberto guarding opposing centers while Earl Boykins and Randy Foye guarded opposing PGs. And Shaun Livingston, for as incredibly as he played at times, was still missing most of his lateral quickness.

If you take last year's roster as the baseline, would you not agree that we have dramatically upgraded the defensive talent on the roster? Sure, Arenas is still a big question mark, but the additions of Wall, Hinrich, Seraphin and Booker (who has a chance to be one of the elite defenders in the NBA) give this team a big upgrade in defensive talent. And I think McGee is going to make big strides in his post defense (not saying much given how bad he was last year) which says nothing of him rapidly becoming the NBA's best shot blocker (something that can partially make up for poor post defense).

If we can assume a small to modest improvement on the defensive end, the Wiz would be an above-average defensive team. Is that fair?

Defense is still the question mark, because I sure expect the Wizards to become an elite (yes, elite) offense very quickly. To me, elite offense and above average defense is more than enough to become lower seed playoff team with room on the upside.

The post just before the one you replied to addressed some of this which I feel you are leaving out.

We had Haywood starting 48 games last year. When we lost him we picked up Singleton who was a defensive presence. Plus Dray was playing some center. Haywood is gone and so is Singleton and Dray is likely slotted to play less center unless Yi plays well enough to help at PF or C.

Yes we added players, but with them comes a lot of questions. Two, Seraphan and Booker we haven't seen in one NBA game yet. Both could be great and if so, we should shine.

But yes, we should be better offensively this year but we added a huge hole at defensive center with no Haywood. Plus the East got better.

Conclusion. Who knows. We have to see what Seraphan, Armstrong and Booker give us.

For me, this is the hardest year for us to predict what this team will do. I can see 30 to 45-48 wins.

[tkunit]

9th or 10th people just don't realize how bad our interior D will be.

[fishercob]

Defense.

Defense, defense, defense, defense, DEFENSE!

It's half the game, but it's harder to quantify and not as entertaining to the masses so it's always glossed over.

Charlotte and Milwaukee were the two best defensive teams in the NBA last year. Milwaukee was teraing up the league after the break last year before Bogut's nasty injury ruined their season. Now he's back healthy, they've added Maggette and Gooden, stolen Jon Brockman, and drafted Larry Sanders. No reason to expect their D to be any worse, and their offense (23rd) should be much better. Fear the Deer.

Charlotte lost Felton and Chandler (who was hurt all year and averaged just 23 sucky minutes in 50 games) and replaced them with Livingston -- who I dont think any of us would be shocked to see succeed for Larry Brown. Looks like Dampier is there for the year too, and he should do just fine. They're going to score 85 a night, but they'll only give up 84 and will be an absolute bitch to play.

The Wizards will need a lot more of what those teams have to grow up and be taken seriously by the league. They're going to be exciting as all get-out this year, but ae going to be absolutely hammerred by physical teams that can defend.

Fishercob,

Not trying to pick on you or anyone else, but this is what I refer to as an example of a Pavlovian Wizards-fan answer.

Most of the responses I see, regardless of topic, tend to stay within the themes (myths) of:

1) The Wizards are years away because they are rebuilding a 26 win team
2) If it can go wrong, it will
3) The Wiz are an awful defensive team

These are things we've been thoroughly conditioned to believe after the past 5 or so seasons.

Except the reality is we aren't a bad defensive team at all.

The Wiz finished 16th overall in points against last season, and that includes big playing time for one of the worst defensive players in the NBA (Jamison), a guy who didn't bother putting forth any effort on the defensive end (Butler) and playing large stretches with Javale McGee and Fab Oberto guarding opposing centers while Earl Boykins and Randy Foye guarded opposing PGs. And Shaun Livingston, for as incredibly as he played at times, was still missing most of his lateral quickness.

If you take last year's roster as the baseline, would you not agree that we have dramatically upgraded the defensive talent on the roster? Sure, Arenas is still a big question mark, but the additions of Wall, Hinrich, Seraphin and Booker (who has a chance to be one of the elite defenders in the NBA) give this team a big upgrade in defensive talent. And I think McGee is going to make big strides in his post defense (not saying much given how bad he was last year) which says nothing of him rapidly becoming the NBA's best shot blocker (something that can partially make up for poor post defense).

If we can assume a small to modest improvement on the defensive end, the Wiz would be an above-average defensive team. Is that fair?

Defense is still the question mark, because I sure expect the Wizards to become an elite (yes, elite) offense very quickly. To me, elite offense and above average defense is more than enough to become lower seed playoff team with room on the upside.

JoJo, not to pick on you or anyone else, but this is what I refer to as stupid.

Seriously dude, basically my entire previous post save the last two sentences was about Charlotte and Milwaukee. It was a direct response to pancakes3's assertion that neither Milwaukee or Charlotte "scared him," and I was simply explaining why those teams should absolutely be respected.

For you to characterize my ideas as a Pavlovian answer clearly misses who you're talking to. Dig up the win prediction thread before last season if you must. I was calling for 50+ wins and the 4-seed in the playoffs. I compared the roster of Eddie Jordan's most successful season to the one we were going to have on opening night and observed an upgrade in our rotation so drastic that we couldn't help but win 50.

And then the season happened. Guys got hurt (it happens). More importantly, the pieces fit together horribly. The team had a disastrous 11-21 record when Gilbert got suspended (.344 win%, 28 win pace!) Last season was a perfect example of real life basketball not being fantasy basketball. The Wizards will have exactly zero starters heading into the season in the same role they played last year (Blatche was subbing for an injured Jamison, but was not the de facto starter heading in the year) and will have to build a ton of chemsitry and continuity to get good.

Some other notes:

"Points against" is a poor statistic to cite, because it doesn't account for the affect of pace. The Wiz were 18th in overall defensive efficiency last year and played slowly --21st in pace.

What have we seen about Booker that gives him the "chance to be one of the elite defenders in the NBA"?? Can we let these guys play a moment on the court against NBA competition before crowning them? Even if the overall defensive talent has been drastically upgraded (a stretch, given we've lost our best defender by far in Haywood), defense is executed as a unit. It takes time and chemistry. We'll have our moments, but are going to struggle on the defensive boards and give the opposition to many chances.

As to offense, the Wiz were 25th in offensive efficiency last year. If you think we're going to be "elite" quickly, then you got another thing coming. Teams are going to pack it in on Wall and take away his driving lanes, forcing him to make long jumpers. It's going to take him some time to perfect that and punish teams. Moreover, it's going to take all of these guys time to figure out their roles within the team framework, get to know each other's games, etc. This is a brand new team, and this isn't fantasy basketball.

The Wiz are going to lose a lot of games. And that's.....ohhhhhhhhhh.......kaaaaaaaaaaaaay.