Taking a look at the Four Factors (
eFG% differential, Free Throws, Rebounding, Turnovers). A quick read with limited data suggests:
Flip's teams generally tend to shoot efficiently despite ignoring the three point line. His teams take open shots, move the ball until they get an open shot, work to get those open shots. He may not take many of them, but they work to ensure that the better shot appears.
Flip's squads tend to post poor ratios in Free Throw Rate differential. They're willing to foul to prevent easy buckets, but more importantly: taking open jumpshots means you are less likely to be fouled yourself. His is not a dribble-drive attack that allows for slashing attacks from perimeter players. Nor is it a system that pounds it into the Bigs to take point blank shots as often as possible.
Flip's teams tend to rebound fairly well. A zone-heavy defense means that teams will shoot from outside. Flip's teams quite often give up a high percentage of long two-pointers. They take them, they give them away for free. They challenge everything else. Flip's core defensive principles are to shade the paint, cheat to the ball side to discourage dribble-drive attacks into the paint and cut off interior passing (but allow side-to-side passes) and run out at three point shooters. If you break your man down off the dribble, still there are two Bigs waiting to stop the drive, you may feel free to pull up short and take the shot.
Long jumpers lead to long rebounds, which minimizes the fact that often Flip's Bigs are fronting the post, especially on the Ball side. Long bounces leave you less vulnerable to opponent bigs who have good inside position.
Turnovers tend to be excellent since Flip prefers that the only player who moves with the ball be the ballhandling guard. He's a point guard, he doesn't trust anyone else with his offense, with the ball. That's not their job. He wants one player as the conduit for his ideas. Other players may make short passes, preferably to an open man. HIs pivot player often is a decent-passing Big stationed at or above the freethrow line. This player is often a relay passer, not moving with the ball but swinging it quickly to a player coming off a motion pattern past screens to spring free. YOu can trust your Kevin McHale, your KG, Rasheed perhaps if htey'v eproven themselves to have good reads and Ball IQ. But mostly, it's the PG.
In some respects I think this may prove a weakness in postseason play. It is easier to stall the point of attack if you rely heavily on one player to do the bulk of the ballhandling. Contrast with the Triangle offense that allows any perimeter player to initiate the attack, and minimizes TOs not by concentrating possessions into the hands of a single player, but instead by fetishizing spacing and emphasizing short passes. Somebody is always open, you needn't wait for the clockwork play to work.
Flip's system often takes a while to develop, but if it doesn't tick quickly it then requires a bail-out shot late in the clock. (Last year: Dray. Previously: Billups or Sheed, most often).
The league's emphasis on the handcheck defenses tends to mean that a large proportion of your late-game foul calls get whistled in favor of your dribble-drive slashers. If you can starve a player of touches or stall a PG at the point of attack, you can monkey wrench the timing on that 24 second machine.
That said with a 2nd proficient ballhandler, in Flip's twin guard sets, either player may initiate the attack. It's been a while since we've seen Gilbert with the rust knocked off, but I'm guessing he'll earn back many of his fans, make a few new ones with his passing and team focus. He's been quiet, training with Tim Grover all summer, having apparently just discovered weight-training last year. After all the poison that came with his tarnished stardom, I suspect he's picked up a seriousness of purpose, desire to prove himself with his game, while stepping back from the spotlight elsewhere. I'm eager to welcome him back. Would love it if he were having fun again.
Questions this raises:
Is Hibachi plus Johnny Ballgame enough to carry this team over the top? Given two uptempo ballhandlers can we run as easily off makes as well as misses? Can we play an uptempo brand of offense where our youth and depth give us fresh legs all game long -- even if we have a few holes on defense? (Potentially undersized perimeter defense, and iffy interior rebounding).
Our best strength is our transition offense, not (yet) our chemistry, patterns, picks, and team passing. Will Flip loosen the reins to encourage a faster pace, or will he stall to input a set to his Coach-on-the-floor? Can an uptempo offense win in the postseason, given that more fouls are allowed, defenses tighten, and opponents have fresher legs with the long layoffs between games?
Consider too the Rock-Paper-Scissors game to beat each of the top opponents. Are we stocked to beat them? How would you defeat each of the following conference opponents, where is their achilles' heel and do we have the pieces to exploit it? :
-- EC Finals representative Boston Celtics'. With experience, size, savvy, defense, spread offense, and the creativity of the dynamic Rajon Rondo. (Weaknesses: age, father time, injuries, declining consistency).
-- The indomitable interior power and solid perimeter play of the Orlando Magic. (Weaknesses: best player is in a ball-dependent position, with out real skill to make space for himself or create his own offense. Requires someone who can get him the ball).
-- The superior unmatched talent of the Miami two-plus-one plus scraps. Even playing two-on-five LeBJ and Wade could beat many of the teams in the league. Tough to gameplan against since both are master improvisers. Bosh's range gives room underneath for either to operate. (Possible Weaknesses: center position doesn't quite have synergy with the rest of the team. Big Z determines that you walk it up if you want him involved at all.)
Are there other up-and-comers who will prove dangerous roadblocks over the next 3 years? Larry Brown's collection of bouncy small forwards perhaps? Atlanta? Strengths, weaknesses? Wiz' best hopes to win? Suggested tactics, or roster holes?
