Future Power Rankings

[Walt Cronkite]

Winning a championship is the ultimate goal, but I don't think it's "what it's all about". You can be a successful franchise if you do something that resonates with your fans.

[ball teacher]

I disagree Slam. Len Bias is a bad luck draft pick, Greg Oden is a bad luck pick, Jay Williams from Duke was a bad luck pick. Adam Morrison was just a bad pick, Sean May, Felton, these guys were scouted studied and badly evaluated. Getting a great player from the second round or who wasn't drafted has more to do with good fortune than picking a very good player in the lottery. Some guys are great at judging talent, like the guys from San Antonio or Utah OKC and Portland, some aren't.

[BigSlam]

Draft picks are a crap shoot teach. There is no two ways about it. If they weren't every 1st over all pick ever taken would have been hands down the best player in their draft class, the 2nd player the 2nd best, 3rd player third best............

Draft selections are an educated guess, but don't kid yourself, at the end of the day they are still a guess and with that guess comes an amount of luck.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Is there luck in the draft? Yes. But it's also very possible to tilt the odds in your favor with good talent evaluation. There are teams that draft well year after year. Is it all luck for them? Of course not. I'm with Ball Teacher on this one.

[fatlever]

Fats Key's to Winning a Ring in a Small Market

1) suck bad enough to get a top 5 pick or have enough assets to trade for a top 5 pick
2) get lucky enough to draft a megastar with that top 5 pick

(#2 is obviously the hardest key of them all. some teams never have the chance to draft a megastar. some teams arent lucky enough to have their perceived megastar live up to the hype.)

3a) pray megastar stays with small market team because he likes the town, has local ties, isnt an ego maniac only concerned with fame and fortune of big media markets or is just an extremely loyal guy.

or

3b) understand your mega star will possibly leave your team as soon as he can become an UFA or demand a trade if things arent rosy after 3 years. at that point you have to pray your megastar is a quick learner and is so damn good he can carry a team to the finals on a rookie contract or at least on his qualifying offer or maybe he is nice and pulls a lebron/wade/bosh and resigns for 3 years after his rookie deal is up. there arent many players in the history of the league that were so damn good they could carry a team to the finals in their first 5 years.

recent megastars who landed in small markets

tim duncan - san antonio was already stacked with david robinson so they didnt even need duncan to carry the team from day one as a rookie, but he did a pretty good job. he had lots of college experience so he was ready to dominate on his rookie deal. they won. then they got super lucky because duncan is a small town kinda guy and liked playing away from the mega media towns so they won more and more. they got lucky 4 times: 1) they got the #1 pick, 2) they got it in a year when a sure fire megastar was coming out 3) mega star actually panned out 4) they already had another superstar 5) their mega star liked the small market and wasnt driven by fame. and on top of that, they had a brilliant front office who landed a great coach and kept the train rolling by picking up great players late in the draft. people talk about how rare it was for detroit to win with no superstars i'd say the spurs dynasty is even more rare and we will probably never see another small market team stay great for that long ever again.

chris paul - time ran out for new orleans. paul was good enough to carry a team on his rookie deal, but the hornets did not surround him with the right players to get them over the top and they got really unlucky with injuries. they did the right thing by going after proven players like peja and posey and jumping into win now mode, but they just picked the wrong proven players. now their window has closed and paul wont stick around for a 2nd try.

kevin durant - he seems to be the kind of guy who will stick around with OKC and not bolt for a big market. but, he's not yet good enough to carry a team on his own and he is surrounded with a young team. the thunder are banking on durant being patient and growing with his young team, but if i was them i would start to consolidate some of that young talent for some older proven players like yesterday. its a fairy team to think this core of young thunder player will stay together and eventually become so good they win a ring together.

i think small market teams with megastars often play it too conservatively and try to build slowly like portland and okc thinkign they have plenty of time to get to the finals. they should be doing the opposite. as soon as you know you have a megastar in your small market you should immediately start surrounding him with proven guys. move those other young budding stars for proven stars. go for the title in 1-3 years cause you never know when your prized asset will get tired of losing and try to jump ship to a big market, high profile team.

so portland and okc, go for it now.

[JDuaneWayne]

We've had bad draft "luck" or whatever you guys want to call it sure. In 2005 we needed players not a potentially great player. I personally wanted us to take Granger but he played the same position as Wallace. We thought we were getting two starters not just one. Ammo had mixed reviews a lot of scouts said he was a can't miss prospect simply because he could score he's 6'8" has a very nice step back jumper and can find spots to get his shot on the floor. He played well his first year but then Larry Brown got to him, maybe the same way he's gotten to DJ absolutely killing their confidence. Darko would definitely co-sign. I honestly didn't want the guy back this year, but whatever he's back I'll deal with it. I would have liked to make a run at a young coach who could grow with the team. If we had kept Tyson our future would be a lot brighter.

[Rich4114]

Luck is ending up with 2 picks in the 2005 draft that could land you Chris Paul.

Poor drafting is using those two picks on players who are no longer with your team for nothing in exchange.

It doesn't get simpler than that. We were in the top of the lottery for a few years in a row and whiffed on almost every pick except Okafor (who anyone else in the NBA would pick #1 or #2 that year).

On top of that, yes we had crappy luck. The coin flip with the Hornets would've given us Chris Paul. The BS win over Detroit to end the season that year also would've given us Paul.

We let a star quality PF pass and instead took a backup PG.

We went for Morrison instead of guys who seemed to get better reviews from scouts in Roy and Gay when we could've drafted either of them instead of Morrison.

We passed on Danny Granger and picked Sean May instead because we needed rebounding.

When any of the teams around us are high fiving each other because the guy they hoped would fall to them fell to them because we didn't pick them - that's a clear cut something's not right with this picture moment.

So in conclusion to win a ring in small market - you need these things in order of importance:

#1. Quality Management capable of evaluating talent the best way and making smart long-term decisions for the franchise

#2. You need to suck for a few years and stock pile draft picks (which we did... with no reward)

#3. You need to have some luck in landing a pick in the draft that allows you to utilize #1 in picking the best possible player.

The thing most of us were afraid of was lottery or just out of lottery purgatory. Kind of like where the Warriors, Clippers, Pacers are right now and have been for some time. The best example though is the Warriors. YEARS of poor GM decisions has led to that team being trapped into never escaping.

[hotrod]

NBAonESPN Agree with our 2010-11 Eastern conference predictions (http://es.pn/aoZvFl)? Disagree? Sound off here: http://es.pn/aEg6Xa
5 minutes ago via web

[ball teacher]

One thing we're overlooking is our depth. I hate to be a negative nelly, but we have a pretty bad center core and our bench isn't that hot either. Between Boris and Tyrus whichever will be benched will be our best bench player. I believe DJ will lose out to Livingston and he'll be the next best player, and then maybe Henderson. But from what I saw of Henderson in the summer league, his game needs a major overhaul. His fundamentals and mechanics are almost gone due to his reliance on his great athleticism. In the NBA, guards cannot be successful this way, his shot has to improve, so does his ability to create his own shot and make plays for others, all of these are major flaws to his game. If he can correct them, he has the tools to be a good player, if he never addresses this problem, then he's not gonna last long. Look at Harold Minor, Corey Benjamin, Gerald Green, and the many other high flyers that couldn't cut it. With that being said, He's our third best bench player. I hope MJ isn't done dealing, because this team isn't as good as last years team and most of the eastern conference teams have improved. While we've only aged and lost key players.

[Paydro70]

I think this is a pretty solid assessment. We have consistently taken on salary, and have assembled a mediocre team of untradeable contracts and no prospects. Barring some extraordinary trade work, this team will be in bad shape for three solid years.

Here's a fun thought: think about our 2012 roster, which has $49.5m in salary (assuming, god willing, DJ and Hendo have not sucked so bad we cut them, and that we decide to keep Livingston's contract).
DJ/Livingston
Jackson/Henderson/Carroll
Wallace
Thomas
Diop

That's 50 MILLION DOLLARS right there, plus the salary of the rookie that we draft next year, who will almost certainly be in the 10-20 range (~1.5m). Maybe at that point the salary cap will be a bit above 60m, but we'll have to fill another 4 roster spots, at least one of whom must be a starting center.

If that isn't a desperate situation, I don't know what is, particularly when the team isn't well-off financially, management has shown precious little insight into how to make the team better, and we likely have to hire a new coach (who probably has to come cheap given the state of the team's finances).

[birdman113]

The funny thing is Hollinger said before the draft Batum was gonna be TERRIBLe a hige BUST!!!!

And now hes saying we shouldve taken him.

What a clown.