Potential Cap Space Trade Partners

[shrink]

Today I went looking for teams that could get the most value out of our cap space if we traded it, and therefore, would pay the most for it.

For those that don't have a link to wyn's great spreadsheet, here ya go. He does an awesome job keeping it current .. sometimes updating it minutes after a trade.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... 3SXc&gid=2

Anyway, here's a quick list.

OVER THE LUX, AND NOT GOING TO GET UNDER:

$23.2 over - LAL
$21.7 over - ORL
$15.1 over - DAL
$13.6 over - DEN
$7.8 over - BOS

These players will still save double on every dollar of payroll they can shed.

OVER THE LUX, MAY MAKE MOVES:

$8.6 over - CHA. Probably doesn't belong on the list with Dampier's $13 mil unguaranteed contract, but they may take back some talent in trade. I think if they don't see a deal soon, they will trade Dampier (+ a little incentive) to a team like us that is under the lux and convert him to a year-long TPE.

$5.1 over - UTA. Utah is in a difficult situation. They have a potential championship-level team, but they are also small-market and take their bottom-line very seriously. Last year when they were in the same situation, they traded talent for financial savings. UTA only has 11 on the roster too. I know they love Kirilenko, but I think we'll see them trade him for multiple players that can cover some of those minutes, and a little cap space as well. Perhaps MIN can assist in the three-way?

$3.6 over - POR Portland was under the lux after waiving Gomes, but with one of the richest men in the world as your owner, they didn't mind going back over very quickly using their MLE. I think they wouldn't mind being under the lux, but won't give up serious assets to simply save Paul Allen a little extra money he might find in his couch.

$3.0 over - HOU. They are tough to figure out, but few teams get this close to the lux and don't try to get under. If they can clear $3 mil in payroll, they save $9 mil. They may use a pick or decent prospect to get the cap space, then buy a pick with cash after the savings.

$0.1 over - SAS. The Spurs are easily within wiggle room of the lux. As a generally financially prudent team, I think we'll see them wiggle.

UNDER THE LUX - BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT

Here's a list of teams that are barely under the lux, and their roster size:

ATL - $2.0 under - 12 players
MIL - $2.1 under - 14 players
NOH - $3.1 under - 12 players
PHI - $1.8 under - 14 players

[Devilzsidewalk]

I'm looking at Denver. If they start to struggle, there's a ton of 3 way trade potential with Nene, Billups, and maybe even Melo. We don't really need the first 2 and I think Melo is a pipedream at this point, but there are plenty of other teams that have pieces we may be interested in and would like Nene or Billups.

[Breakdown777]

Thanks for the write up Shrink. This is cool to think about, but I think Kahn&Co. will wait to use the space until a team flounders and is willing to move a big piece. There is so much youth and no playing time on this team, that I'm expecting something like 2 of Brewer/Webster/Ellington/(maybe even Flynn) plus the space for someone who can be a major contributor like Iggy or Granger(not gonna happen but I always bring him up).

[Devilzsidewalk]

thats always a possibility, but if for example Denver struggles and says "**** it, we're gonna rebuild", then our options expand from teams looking to dump salary, to teams looking to make a straight up trade. Maybe Philly for example decides they don't want to dump Iggy for salary, but are open to moving him for Billups or Nene, but Denver doesn't want Iguodala's salary, now the Wolves can step in and help them out. We'll have to move a couple guys no matter what if we're talking about players in that salary range.

[shrink]

I'm looking at Denver. If they start to struggle, there's a ton of 3 way trade potential with Nene, Billups, and maybe even Melo. We don't really need the first 2 and I think Melo is a pipedream at this point, but there are plenty of other teams that have pieces we may be interested in and would like Nene or Billups.

This is pretty astute, and something that most people don't pick up on, so financial kudos to you, DSW.

Denver is a slightly smaller market than Minnesota, and while their owner is rich, he is slightly less rich than Glen Taylor. Denver has been a play-off caliber team, but was only #13 in home attendance and filled 93.9% of its seats, leaving potential revenue on the table. Right after Camby won the DPOY award, they traded him for straight cap space. DEN fans say it was because he wasn't worth the money, but for some championship contenders, they keep players that help regardless of the financial savings. DEN makes money as a whole, but this is probably only because they are winning, and getting extra play-off games. They are the 20th most valuable franchise in the NBA. I agree with Devilz, that when they stop winning, Kroenke will quickly try to shed salary and pull that team under the lux. DEN's salary structure this year, with four players making $11 mil+, is just too hard to navigate.

[skorff26]

1)With Dallas, Deshawn Stevenson + 2010 1st + 3 million cash for cap space
-We take on 4.1 million in salary for a late 1st (worth 3 mil and 3 mil cash); Dallas saves on Stevenson's deal 4.1 mil x 2 = 8.2 mil - 6 mil from picks and cash

2)With Denver, JR Smith for cap space + Utah pick (if Denver struggles)

3)With Charlotte, Nazr Mohammed + Gerald Henderson for Telfair

4)With Portland, maybe Przy + rights to Claver for cap space

5)with Houston, Jeffries + one of the knicks picks for cap space

6)with Atlanta, Maurice Evans + 2.5 million (his salary) + 2nd round pick ( or maybe Crawford or Teague if we wanted them instead) for cap space

7)with Philly, Kapono + Thad Young for cap space

[GopherIt!]

Shrink do you make your wife use C++ to talk dirty to you?

[Ball Does Lie]

Shrink do you make your wife use C++ to talk dirty to you?

He's a programmer?

[mnWI]

I'm looking at Denver. If they start to struggle, there's a ton of 3 way trade potential with Nene, Billups, and maybe even Melo. We don't really need the first 2 and I think Melo is a pipedream at this point, but there are plenty of other teams that have pieces we may be interested in and would like Nene or Billups.

This is pretty astute, and something that most people don't pick up on, so financial kudos to you, DSW.

Denver is a slightly smaller market than Minnesota, and while their owner is rich, he is slightly less rich than Glen Taylor. Denver has been a play-off caliber team, but was only #13 in home attendance and filled 93.9% of its seats, leaving potential revenue on the table. Right after Camby won the DPOY award, they traded him for straight cap space. DEN fans say it was because he wasn't worth the money, but for some championship contenders, they keep players that help regardless of the financial savings. DEN makes money as a whole, but this is probably only because they are winning, and getting extra play-off games. They are the 20th most valuable franchise in the NBA. I agree with Devilz, that when they stop winning, Kroenke will quickly try to shed salary and pull that team under the lux. DEN's salary structure this year, with four players making $11 mil+, is just too hard to navigate.

I don't see Taylor's worth vs Kroenke's net worth being all that relevant to the discussion, but Kroenke is now worth more than Taylor, and that's not even taking Kroenke's wife into consideration. Taylor is worth 2.2 billion dollars right now, while Stan Kroenke is worth 2.9 billion. Ann Walton Kroenke, Stan's wife, is worth 3.2 billion. Their son Josh will likely be taking over ownership of the Nuggets if Stan is approved to buy the St. Louis Rams, so I would think you have to take the net worth of both parents into consideration if going down that road.

[shrink]

1)With Dallas, Deshawn Stevenson + 2010 1st + 3 million cash for cap space
-We take on 4.1 million in salary for a late 1st (worth 3 mil and 3 mil cash); Dallas saves on Stevenson's deal 4.1 mil x 2 = 8.2 mil - 6 mil from picks and cash

2) ....

Great post skorff.

1. I really like the DAL trade. People may right off any DAL trade that saves money, but even Mark Cuban probably doesn't want to keep the unwanted salary of Deshawn Stevenson. He was inserted into the Haywood/Caron Butler deal, but only played total six minutes in the entire play-off series. Nobody would want to pay $8.3 mil for a guy you don't use. $3 mil cash and their late pick seems like a good deal, and it opens up a roster slots to use their MLE, BAE and multiple TPE's. I could see Cuban doing a deal like this, and maybe buying a different pick back.

For MIN, it reduces our cap space by $4.15 mil, less any buy-out we could get for Stevenson. $3 mil in cash allows us to acquire a future asset onexpensively if we have no better use for our cap space, and it doesn't cost us playing time, which will be at a premium this year.

More on the others later. .. good post.

[casey]

Shrink do you make your wife use C++ to talk dirty to you?

Hey, leave Nancy out of this!

[shrink]

4)With Portland, maybe Przy + rights to Claver for cap space

This is a very tough one to call, but I think POR would decline it, despite the great savings.

First, of course, you have one of the richest men on the planet behind the Trailblazers, and while the front office doesn't completely disregard expenses, I think they are allowed a longer leash than just about any team. In the past, I've argued that despite a fairly expensive contract, Pryzbilla is on my very short "worth more to us than any of the other 29 teams" list. POR didn't mind the extra expense, to have some insurance for the oft-injured Oden, and his skill-set was a nice match as well. POR fans maintain this position, but with Pryzbilla's own injury concerns (though he's healthier than expected), I don't think he can be considered a cost-effective insurance policy any more. POR likes Claver (as do I), but its hard to imagine he's worth this much money to anyone. For us, he's an impressive euro, but that's very expensive, so I think that it really depends on how you project Claver.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I'm looking at Denver. If they start to struggle, there's a ton of 3 way trade potential with Nene, Billups, and maybe even Melo. We don't really need the first 2 and I think Melo is a pipedream at this point, but there are plenty of other teams that have pieces we may be interested in and would like Nene or Billups.

This is pretty astute, and something that most people don't pick up on, so financial kudos to you, DSW.

Denver is a slightly smaller market than Minnesota, and while their owner is rich, he is slightly less rich than Glen Taylor. Denver has been a play-off caliber team, but was only #13 in home attendance and filled 93.9% of its seats, leaving potential revenue on the table. Right after Camby won the DPOY award, they traded him for straight cap space. DEN fans say it was because he wasn't worth the money, but for some championship contenders, they keep players that help regardless of the financial savings. DEN makes money as a whole, but this is probably only because they are winning, and getting extra play-off games. They are the 20th most valuable franchise in the NBA. I agree with Devilz, that when they stop winning, Kroenke will quickly try to shed salary and pull that team under the lux. DEN's salary structure this year, with four players making $11 mil+, is just too hard to navigate.

I don't see Taylor's worth vs Kroenke's net worth being all that relevant to the discussion, but Kroenke is now worth more than Taylor, and that's not even taking Kroenke's wife into consideration. Taylor is worth 2.2 billion dollars right now, while Stan Kroenke is worth 2.9 billion. Ann Walton Kroenke, Stan's wife, is worth 3.2 billion. Their son Josh will likely be taking over ownership of the Nuggets if Stan is approved to buy the St. Louis Rams, so I would think you have to take the net worth of both parents into consideration if going down that road.

To me, what's relevant is that the Kenyon/Nene/Melo trio has been together since 2004 and they lose in the first round almost every year. At their peak w/ everybody healthy and playing their best, they lost in the WCF to the pre-Artest, 50% healthy Bynum Lakers 4-2. They can't win a championship with this core. I'm sure they know this, but they'll need an excuse to blow the team up. Maybe an injury or a lackadaisical start

[mnWI]

To me, what's relevant is that the Kenyon/Nene/Melo trio has been together since 2004 and they lose in the first round almost every year. At their peak w/ everybody healthy and playing their best, they lost in the WCF to the pre-Artest, 50% healthy Bynum Lakers 4-2. They can't win a championship with this core. I'm sure they know this, but they'll need an excuse to blow the team up. Maybe an injury or a lackadaisical start

Not really the argument I was having here, but you could just as easily say they made the WCF their first year with Billups, and their season last year was derailed by front court injuries and the loss of one of the better and more experienced playoff coaches in the NBA. I also think it's pretty arbitrary of you to pick Nene and Kenyon to formulate a trio. Sure they've played together for a long time, but those are hardly the second and third best players on the team.

If Denver was really thinking in the back of their minds about blowing things up, I don't think they would have signed Al Harrington to the contract they did either. I think they have enough assets to re-tool as long as the Kroenke's keep showing their willingness to spend, and I also believe a new front office could pull off a few pretty interesting moves to maybe become even more competitive while keeping their payroll around the same level. From what I can gather, Melo will sign his extension if he feels a comfort level with the players around him going forward.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I know it wasn't your argument, I was butting in with what I thought the argument should be for Denver making big moves. And if Carmelo signs an extension, I'd say its 95% CBA related and 5% caring about Denver's future.

[shrink]

It's DEN's salary structure this year that I think strangles their opportunities to make moves.

They have $58 mil locked into four players (Carmelo, Kenyon Martin, Billups, and Nene) and an additional $17 in three more (JR Smith, Al Harrington, and Chris Anderson). The Nuggets not the LA Lakers, and can't just throw $75 mil into 7 players and expect to make a profit.

MnWI is right -- the big "if" is whether Kroenke is willing to spend, and willing to lose money. However, like Taylor, if this team struggles, especially early, its difficult for a median-market owner to justify spending into the lux. Uncertainty is even higher because of the power Carmelo carries with the team's need for him to sign an extension. I don't think cutting salary is the plan right now, but I agree with Devilz that if DEN struggles, they could be one of the surprises by cutting payroll a year early.

[shrink]

Right now, the one that's bouncing around in my head the most is Utah, and Kirilenko.

$5.1 over - UTA. Utah is in a difficult situation. They have a potential championship-level team, but they are also small-market and take their bottom-line very seriously. Last year when they were in the same situation, they traded talent for financial savings. UTA only has 11 on the roster too. I know they love Kirilenko, but I think we'll see them trade him for multiple players that can cover some of those minutes, and a little cap space as well. Perhaps MIN can assist in the three-way?

What I'd like to see is UTA find a win-now team looking to consolidate, and turn Kirilenko's $17.8 mil salary (and 11 players on the roster) into:

$5 mil good player (hopefully an SF)
$5 mil adequate vet (hopefully a big, to cover for early injuries)
$2 mil mediocre vet

$2 mil aspiring prospect (late lottery)
$4 mil non-producing expiring

Then package the last two (perhaps with us) for the space to get under the lux, and save $14 mil.

Their line-up looks something like this:

UTAH JAZZ
Deron / Price
R.Bell / CJ
AK / Hayward
Millsap /
Jefferson / Okur / Fesenko

Gaines and Jeffers are on unguaranteed deals, Jeremy Evans maybe? Its a mess.

Anyway, I think they need to break-up Kirilenkop because injuries won't allow them the luxury of locking $18 mil into 25 minutes .. they need more guys on the floor to fill in around their other expensive players. I'm sure UTA would love to get part of that value back in cap space. The hard part is finding the right third team.