Predict the Eastern Conference Standings

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

McGee's farther along IMO entering his third NBA season than Andray Blatche was entering his third season in the league.

[nate33]

McGee's farther along IMO entering his third NBA season than Andray Blatche was entering his third season in the league.

Apples and oranges.

McGee entered his second season with 66 college games and 75 pro games under his belt. He got to play on a sub-25-win team with no pressure to succeed and no Brendan Haywood to take his minutes. Blatche entered his second season with 0 college games and 29 pro games under his belt. He had to play on a playoff contender behind Antawn Jamison and Darius Songaila under a coach who hates tall people.

I'd also say that McGee is not further along. His per-minute stats might be a bit better, but his defense is light years behind Dray's. Check the on/off numbers. McGee kills this team when he is on the floor.

[closg00]

ESPN article on turnaround predictions.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/stor ... Turnaround

RANK PLAYER VOTES

1. Miami Heat - 33 votes
2009-10 record: 47-35
'09-10 finish: 5th in East
• Roster
• Statistics
• Player movement

2. New Jersey - 12 votes
2009-10 record: 12-70
'09-10 finish: 15th in East
• Roster
• Statistics
• Player movement

T-3 Chicago Bulls - 7 votes
2009-10 record: 41-41
'09-10 finish: 8th in East
• Roster
• Statistics
• Player movement

T-3 Houston Rockets - 7 votes
2009-10 record: 42-40
'09-10 finish: 9th in West
• Roster
• Statistics
• Player movement

T-3 Los Angeles Clippers - 7 votes
2009-10 record: 29-53
'09-10 finish: 12th in West
• Roster
• Statistics
• Player movement

T-3 Washington Wizards 7 votes
2009-10 record: 26-56
'09-10 finish: 14th in East
• Roster
• Statistics
• Player movement

[pancakes3]

ah yes, the annual "man, the clippers are just TOO talented not to turn it around" meme is sweeping the nation.

honestly, we've got a lot more room for improvement than other teams, plus a complete overhaul of our backcourt. foye/livingston/miller -> wall/arenas/hinrich. if we had a 25 game improvement, we'd be at 51 wins. absurd, but imo not outside the realm of possibility. if the heat had a 25 game improvement, they'd be tied with the 96 bulls. of course the nets only have to win 37 (not even go .500!) for a 25 game improvement.

put a gun to my head, i say the nets are going to win the turnaround crown this season. we won't be far behind though. 15 win improvement at LEAST imo. i still stand by my outrageous 50 win prediction. i'll buy pitchers for the wizboard draft viewing party if we're in the lottery.

but if we top 5-0 i want the naysayers to shower me in dom p.

[miller31time]

I don't know about 50 wins but I stand by my opinion that we are a playoff team. I think we're where a 7th or 8th seed should be, considering how top-heavy the Eastern Conference is.

[verbal8]

ESPN article on turnaround predictions.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/stor ... Turnaround

RANK PLAYER VOTES

1. Miami Heat - 33 votes
2009-10 record: 47-35
'09-10 finish: 5th in East

2. New Jersey - 12 votes
2009-10 record: 12-70
'09-10 finish: 15th in East


T-3 Chicago Bulls - 7 votes
2009-10 record: 41-41
'09-10 finish: 8th in East


T-3 Houston Rockets - 7 votes
2009-10 record: 42-40
'09-10 finish: 9th in West


T-3 Los Angeles Clippers - 7 votes
2009-10 record: 29-53
'09-10 finish: 12th in West


T-3 Washington Wizards 7 votes
2009-10 record: 26-56
'09-10 finish: 14th in East

Miami and NJ are pretty obvious. In terms of number of games improvement, I think the Nets will be number 1, if T Williams and Morrow emerge as legit NBA starters that looks like a 35 win team to me.

I don't really see a ton of upside or huge improvements with the Rockets and the Bulls.

For the Bulls, Boozer is a nice player, but I don't think he vaults them to contender status. The decimation of the Cavs and underachievement of the Bobcats could move them up 2 spots. There is almost 0 chance of them passing the Bulls, Heat or Celtics. If Jennings progresses and Bogut stays healthy, I think Milwaukee fends them off. I think the Hawks stay in front of the Bulls. So they could move from 8th to 6th, but the prospects aren't good for much more.

An near all-star level Yao could change everything, but short of that, I don't see the Rockets passing anyone except maybe Denver and possibly Portland. A lot of the teams in the West look washed up and vulnerable(Spurs, Dallas, Utah and Phoenix) however they seem mysteriously age defying. The West overall should be weaker, so OKC or Houston could win 50 games and end up as the 3 or 4 seed.

I think the Wizards and Clippers end up flirting the play-offs and falling short. The Clippers probably get a little closer this year, but I think the Wizards will look stronger at the end of the season.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

McGee's farther along IMO entering his third NBA season than Andray Blatche was entering his third season in the league.

Apples and oranges.

McGee entered his second season with 66 college games and 75 pro games under his belt. He got to play on a sub-25-win team with no pressure to succeed and no Brendan Haywood to take his minutes. Blatche entered his second season with 0 college games and 29 pro games under his belt. He had to play on a playoff contender behind Antawn Jamison and Darius Songaila under a coach who hates tall people.

I'd also say that McGee is not further along. His per-minute stats might be a bit better, but his defense is light years behind Dray's. Check the on/off numbers. McGee kills this team when he is on the floor.

I wonder how McGee affected the team's on/off differential in April 2010. He played strong off the bench to end the season. His on/off got better--which means at some point he was either far less of a negative or in fact, a positive for the team. I believe that last month McGee was a positive (but I could be wrong, nate).

Overall, when taking defense into account, your point that Blatche was way better defensively so he was farther along is one I accept as reasonable. Andray never was as bad a defender as Javale is. OTOH Javale has shown explosiveness scoring and blocking shots that Andray doesn't have.

I am glad the two are teammates, and I really look forward to seeing McGee have to compete in practice against different bigs. Haywood and Oberto probably owned him last season, but this year he's the veteran.

[Hoopalotta]

Looking at the box scores over at ESPN McGee's +/- in the last 10 games was as follows:

@ Rockets: +1
@ Hornets: -7
Vs. Bulls: -6
Vs. Nets: +6
Vs. Warriors: +3
@ Magic: -5
@ Celtics: -4
Vs. Hawks: 0
@ Knicks: -5
Vs. Pacers: 0

Total: -17

That's in about 21 minutes a game.

[closg00]

Mannix Off-season grades for the SE Division, he gives us a B-
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/w ... index.html

[Dat2U]

Mannix Off-season grades for the SE Division, he gives us a B-
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/w ... index.html

Wow, seriously, he gets paid to right these articles?

[closg00]

Mannix Off-season grades for the SE Division, he gives us a B-
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/w ... index.html

Wow, seriously, he gets paid to right these articles?

What, you don't like this hack-job?

BOTTOM LINE

They're still missing many pieces and Arenas is more of a liability than benefit at this point. A playoff run may not be in the cards for this season, but with Wall running the show, a postseason trip may not be too far off.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Looking at the box scores over at ESPN McGee's +/- in the last 10 games was as follows:

@ Rockets: +1
@ Hornets: -7
Vs. Bulls: -6
Vs. Nets: +6
Vs. Warriors: +3
@ Magic: -5
@ Celtics: -4
Vs. Hawks: 0
@ Knicks: -5
Vs. Pacers: 0

Total: -17

That's in about 21 minutes a game.

Call him -1.7/game over the last 10. Not craptastically bad. Most negative games were against playoff teams Hornets, Bulls, Magic, Celtics; each with good frontcourt depth. Bulls was home negative, others on the road. New York the only non-playoff team negative was a road game.

I infer from this fouls on the road are part of McGee's problem.

Obviously, he has a hard time against better competition. Frontcourt rebounding from opponents might give him problems. (Assuming Lee played in the Knicks loss).

Thanks, Hoppalotta. Your looking those games up does seem to back up that McGee wasn't that bad the last 10 games.

[nate33]

Looking at the box scores over at ESPN McGee's +/- in the last 10 games was as follows:

@ Rockets: +1
@ Hornets: -7
Vs. Bulls: -6
Vs. Nets: +6
Vs. Warriors: +3
@ Magic: -5
@ Celtics: -4
Vs. Hawks: 0
@ Knicks: -5
Vs. Pacers: 0

Total: -17

That's in about 21 minutes a game.

Call him -1.7/game over the last 10. Not craptastically bad. Most negative games were against playoff teams Hornets, Bulls, Magic, Celtics; each with good frontcourt depth. Bulls was home negative, others on the road. New York the only non-playoff team negative was a road game.

I infer from this fouls on the road are part of McGee's problem.

Obviously, he has a hard time against better competition. Frontcourt rebounding from opponents might give him problems. (Assuming Lee played in the Knicks loss).

Thanks, Hoppalotta. Your looking those games up does seem to back up that McGee wasn't that bad the last 10 games.

It's -1.7 per 21 minutes, so it's actually more like -3.9 points per 48. That's an improvement over the -5.1 he posted over the entire season, but it's not exactly encouraging to see that he makes a terrible team even worse.

[JonathanJoseph]

Mannix Off-season grades for the SE Division, he gives us a B-
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/w ... index.html

Wow, seriously, he gets paid to right these articles?

To me, this sums up the perception of this Wizards offseason.

WHAT WENT WRONG
Bringing back Arenas
The Wizards can pay all the lip service to Gilbert Arenas that they want -- if they could have found a taker for the remaining four years and $80 million on his contract, Arenas would be gone. On paper, an Arenas-Wall backcourt looks scary. But will Arenas be willing to share the ball (and the spotlight) with a rookie?

Even someone touting this as "what went wrong" acknowledges that Arenas/Wall "looks scary" on paper.

Since it's the offseason and we're only judging "on paper", isn't this a good thing?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Looking at the box scores over at ESPN McGee's +/- in the last 10 games was as follows:

@ Rockets: +1
@ Hornets: -7
Vs. Bulls: -6
Vs. Nets: +6
Vs. Warriors: +3
@ Magic: -5
@ Celtics: -4
Vs. Hawks: 0
@ Knicks: -5
Vs. Pacers: 0

Total: -17

That's in about 21 minutes a game.

Call him -1.7/game over the last 10. Not craptastically bad. Most negative games were against playoff teams Hornets, Bulls, Magic, Celtics; each with good frontcourt depth. Bulls was home negative, others on the road. New York the only non-playoff team negative was a road game.

I infer from this fouls on the road are part of McGee's problem.

Obviously, he has a hard time against better competition. Frontcourt rebounding from opponents might give him problems. (Assuming Lee played in the Knicks loss).

Thanks, Hoppalotta. Your looking those games up does seem to back up that McGee wasn't that bad the last 10 games.

It's -1.7 per 21 minutes, so it's actually more like -3.9 points per 48. That's an improvement over the -5.1 he posted over the entire season, but it's not exactly encouraging to see that he makes a terrible team even worse.

No, it isn't nate. (EDITED--Read this as "No, it isn't encouraging")

FWIW Andray Blatche at age 21-22 (same age McGee was this past season) made the 2007-2008 Wizards -9.9 points worse per 48 minutes.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07WAS10D.HTM

Noted is that Andray was replacing Haywood or Jamison and that was a good Wizard team. The comparison is that folks had serious doubts about Blatche back then, as many do about Javale right now. At this time I choose (EDITED) to ignore the numbers about Javale's impact on the team. (Ruz, that's for you, I'm going against stats here.) I think the light's going to come on for McGee and that he's going to get way better at both ends this season.

I have to see the positives for Gil, Yi, and McGee due to Wall's presence on this team. I have to see a perfect storm of good things happening in order to stick with my 49-win, outrageously optimistic, prediction.

Blatche is a very solid player. So, too, will be Javale McGee in time.

[willbcocks]

For what it's worth, I still have serious doubts about Blatche, so I have trouble using him as the positive example for how Mcgee could progress. He isn't as big a question mark as Mcgee, but I have seen nothing to convince me that:

-He will play team defense
-He will play hard and not sulk if he has to defer to others
-He has an attitude that can help create, or at least not obstruct the creation of, a winning culture.

Dray's certainly proven he has the skills (something Mcgee hasn't), but he's yet to prove he has the mindset.

Also, Dray's already well into contract two, which we were lucky enough to get in part because of a certain undercover female. Javale may still have big question marks when his contract is up, and that would put us in a nasty situation.

[nate33]

It's -1.7 per 21 minutes, so it's actually more like -3.9 points per 48. That's an improvement over the -5.1 he posted over the entire season, but it's not exactly encouraging to see that he makes a terrible team even worse.

No, it isn't nate.

Yes, it is CCJ. 82games.com posts their on/off differential on a per 48 basis. With the data Hoopalotta posted, the way to interpret it and remain consistent with 82games.com scoring method is to state that McGee's on/off differential was -3.9 during the last 10 games.

FWIW Andray Blatche at age 21-22 (same age McGee was this past season) made the 2007-2008 Wizards -9.9 points worse per 48 minutes.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07WAS10D.HTM

Noted is that Andray was replacing Haywood or Jamison and that was a good Wizard team. The comparison is that folks had serious doubts about Blatche back then, as many do about Javale right now. At this time I choose not to ignore the numbers about Javale's impact on the team. (Ruz, that's for you, I'm going against stats here.) I think the light's going to come on for McGee and that he's going to get way better at both ends this season.

I have to see the positives for Gil, Yi, and McGee due to Wall's presence on this team. I have to see a perfect storm of good things happening in order to stick with my 49-win, outrageously optimistic, prediction.

Blatche is a very solid player. So, too, will be Javale McGee in time.

I have hopes for McGee too. I just disagree with your original assertion that he was further along in his second year than Blatche. Blatche showed more in-game effectiveness at a younger age than McGee.

I think Blatche has a higher b-ball IQ and better innate basketball skills. McGee is blessed with better physical traits and athleticism. McGee has a higher ceiling than Blatche but a lower floor. If I were a betting man, I'd bet that Blatche ultimately pans out to be a better player, but that doesn't mean I don't think McGee can be good.

[verbal8]

Mannix Off-season grades for the SE Division, he gives us a B-
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/w ... index.html

Wow, seriously, he gets paid to right these articles?

I think his grades are reasonable(if slightly tough), but there are some big holes in his analysis.

There seems to be more focus on past moves than this offseason. The issue with Arenas at this point is the contract he signed 2 years ago. I have seen no indications the gun incident is not behind him. He also makes no mention of the Wizards acquisitions besides Wall.

He knocks the Magic for Bass who was signed last off-season.

The worst is he plain gets wrong Q RIch's NBA experience.

Mannix article:

Bye, bye Barnes
Barnes' production (8.8 points, 5.5 rebounds) is replaceable but his intangibles will be hard to duplicate, especially by a rookie in Richardson.

I think he might have meant Robinson, but expecting a late 2nd to do anything than clap from the end of the bench and fill in garbage minutes is crazy.

[montestewart]

^
Maybe I read it wrong, but I thought CCJ was saying "No, it isn't encouraging," based on what followed.

[montestewart]

Mannix Off-season grades for the SE Division, he gives us a B-
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/w ... index.html

Wow, seriously, he gets paid to right these articles?

I think his grades are reasonable(if slightly tough), but there are some big holes in his analysis.

There seems to be more focus on past moves than this offseason. The issue with Arenas at this point is the contract he signed 2 years ago. I have seen no indications the gun incident is not behind him. He also makes no mention of the Wizards acquisitions besides Wall.

He knocks the Magic for Bass who was signed last off-season.

The worst is he plain gets wrong Q RIch's NBA experience.

Bye, bye Barnes
Barnes' production (8.8 points, 5.5 rebounds) is replaceable but his intangibles will be hard to duplicate, especially by a rookie in Richardson.

Maybe he meant rookie Robinson. The whole thing looks a little rushed and in need of a knowledgeable proofread