Finding the Ideal Small Forward

[nate33]

With the understanding that Josh Howard is not a long term solution at SF, I decided to look around the league to target the ideal SF for our team going forward. It's not like there's much else to talk about during the summer doldrums.

Over the next few years, our team's offense will presumably be built around Arenas, Wall and Blatche. That should prove to be an effective offensive combination, particularly when our 4th option, McGee, projects to be a fairly effective offensive player at the center position. So our SF is not going to be a high usage player.

What we are looking for is a youngish SF who can contribute effectively without needing the ball much. To that end, I put together a list of all the SF's in the league who played at least 1500 minutes, and I ranked them by PER/Usg ratio. That is, PER divided by Usage Rate. The idea here is to see who can produce the most with the least touches. Here is the list:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK  3P%  TS%  PER  Usg  P/U
batum,nicolas   15.6  5.9  1.8  1.0  1.0 .409 .646 17.4 14.7 1.19
kirilenko,andre 14.4  5.5  3.3  1.7  1.5 .292 .588 17.9 15.4 1.16
dudley,jared    11.8  4.9  2.0  1.4  0.3 .458 .612 13.5 12.0 1.13
mbah_a_moute,lu  8.9  7.8  1.6  1.2  0.8 .353 .530 11.9 10.8 1.10
battier,shane    8.8  5.1  2.7  0.9  1.3 .362 .541 11.2 10.2 1.10
wallace,gerald  16.4  9.0  1.9  1.4  1.0 .371 .586 18.4 17.9 1.03
barnes,matt     12.4  7.7  2.3  1.0  0.5 .319 .576 13.6 14.1 0.97
williams,marvin 12.3  6.2  1.4  1.0  0.7 .303 .540 13.0 13.9 0.94
gibson,taj      11.9  9.9  1.1  0.8  1.7 .000 .521 13.8 14.7 0.94
marion,shawn    13.6  7.2  1.6  1.0  0.9 .158 .535 14.8 15.8 0.93
prince,tayshaun 15.1  5.7  3.7  0.8  0.5 .370 .530 16.1 17.3 0.93
gallinari,danil 15.9  5.2  1.8  1.0  0.8 .381 .575 14.9 17.0 0.88
artest,ron      11.6  4.5  3.2  1.5  0.3 .355 .514 12.0 14.4 0.84
deng,luol       16.5  6.9  1.9  0.9  0.8 .386 .531 16.0 19.3 0.83
green,jeff      14.6  5.8  1.6  1.2  0.8 .333 .531 13.8 17.0 0.81
delfino,carlos  13.2  6.3  3.2  1.3  0.3 .367 .526 12.9 16.1 0.80
gay,rudy        17.5  5.3  1.7  1.3  0.7 .327 .535 16.1 20.2 0.80
derozan,demar   14.2  4.8  1.1  0.9  0.4 .250 .555 12.5 15.7 0.80
gomes,ryan      13.1  5.5  2.0  1.0  0.3 .372 .528 12.1 15.5 0.78
chandler,wilson 15.3  5.4  2.1  0.7  0.8 .267 .534 13.8 17.8 0.77
pietrus,mickael 13.9  4.6  1.0  1.1  0.7 .379 .555 11.8 15.6 0.76
anthony,carmelo 25.9  6.0  3.0  1.2  0.4 .316 .548 22.1 29.3 0.76
casspi,omri     14.6  6.4  1.8  1.0  0.3 .369 .529 13.1 17.3 0.75
young,thaddeus  15.8  6.0  1.7  1.4  0.3 .348 .523 14.1 19.2 0.73
thornton,al     14.1  5.2  1.6  0.8  0.6 .355 .523 12.2 17.0 0.72
ariza,trevor    14.5  5.5  3.7  1.7  0.5 .334 .488 13.4 19.0 0.71
butler,caron    15.7  6.0  2.0  1.5  0.3 .290 .507 13.3 19.5 0.68
greene,donte    14.1  5.1  1.5  0.9  1.2 .377 .527 11.7 17.1 0.68
jackson,stephen 19.6  4.7  3.5  1.6  0.5 .328 .518 15.7 24.4 0.64
brewer,corey    14.9  3.9  2.7  1.6  0.4 .346 .503 12.1 19.1 0.63
howard,josh     17.8  5.0  1.9  1.0  0.4 .267 .496 13.4 22.0 0.61

I eliminated players like Lebron and Granger who are clearly unobtainable. I eliminated fossils like James Posey and Grant Hill. And I eliminated a few high usage players like Maggette who I felt had no hope of fitting in here.

The prize on the list is Nicolas Batum. He leads the pack in PER/Usg, he has the second-highest 3 point percentage, he plays good D, and he's just 21. If I could have anyone in the league not named Lebron to play SF for us, it would be Batum. Portland isn't going to give him away easily though.

Kirilenko ranks impressively as well, but he doesn't have three point range. Nevetheless, his slashing game would probably still be effective since our bigs have the ability to spread the floor, and his length would be Flip's wet dream in the zone. I wouldn't mind him as a combo forward who starts at SF but plays most of the backup minutes at PF when Blatche sits. Kirilenko is a free agent next summer. Utah may have luxtax issues depending on the new cap structure.

Jared Dudley is another interesting name. He's a lights out 3-point shooter, though one wonders if he can be as efficient outside of Phoenix' offensive system. He also plays good D though he's a bit limited athletically and he's not the longest player in the world. Dudley is a restricted free agent next summer, but Phoenix already has two highly priced swing men in Turkaglu and Childress and may not be thrilled about paying a lot to retain Dudley.

Mbah a Moute is a defensive ace who doesn't need the ball at all. But is he really much different from what he hope Trevor Booker will become? I don't believe that 3-point percentage since he only shot a total of 17 3-pointers all season. He is also a restricted free agent. Milwaukee's financial situation is pretty good once Redd comes off the books so they will be in position to match any lowball offer.

We all know about Battier. He is a free agent next year but he's getting long in the tooth. I'd love him on the team this year as a mentor on the last year of his contract, but I'm not so sure it's wise to sign him to a new contract given his age relative to the age of the rest of our team.

Gerald Wallace is most likely unobtainable. He's a beast though.

Barnes has a player option next year and may choose to opt out since he is owed just $1.9M

Marvin Williams appears obtainable and he's only 24. His 3P% suffered this year, but he shot a serviceable 35% last year.

Not many other names on the list appeal to me. Thornton, Wilson Chandler, Pietrus, Donte Green and Casspi don't look so good by this criteria. And, sadly, Caron Butler and Josh Howard look awful.

[fishercob]

Funny, nate. I just saw P/U ratio mentioned elsewhere and thought it was a neat stat.

The other critical element of our idea SF is that he be able to defend., and that's harder to quantify.

I know Casspi ranks low in P/U (.67), but his rookie numbers compare fine to Battier's (.71), Gerald Wallace (.60), and Prince (.72). I think he'd be ideal, given how big, long and athletic he is, and that he plays with the passion of a caged animal. But the Kings are terrible trade partners for us.

[WizarDynasty]

wonderful work nate. This close to your best in terms of analysis. paints a strikingly clear picture of the challenges the wizards face. Looking at blocks really highlights who plays defense. Rebounds is a consistent 5 through out the board and 3 pt shooting shows who is an outside threat. Very impressed with Batum 1.0 block per game. he's far better at challenging shots than Dudley. i wonder what Tayshaun Prince's number looked like compared these guys back when the pistons were winning championships.
i also love Battier numbers.

[doclinkin]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KxIxIsL2rE&feature=related[/youtube]

You're on the right track citing Nico Batum and AK47. But needn't stick in the NBA to find that player. The Euroball circuit provides an ideal training ground for the skills needed in an unselfish NBA Small Forward. Often Euro PFs become NBA 'threes'. Look for players with good range, defensive rebounding, and solid assist ratios. If you look around the NBA the two positions where Euros reliably make a roster and a name for themselves are: Center (limited pool of truly huge players) and SF.

You can survive in this position with smarts talent and skill where at 2-guard and PF you need superior athleticism (plus size as a PF) to have a prayer.

[nate33]

By the way, those are pace-adjusted per-36 numbers.

[pancakes3]

casspi is probably in the kings long term plans. their overpaid incumbent sf's garcia and nocioni are probably more acquirable. nocioni is getting up in years and garcia is a shoddy defender.

we missed out on the portland dumping of outlaw and webster but i think both are still talented and obtainable. minny has brewer and beasley, NJN has terrence williams.

taj gibson is intriguing because he's the bruiser sf that we had once hyped maguire to become. plus he can play pf in a pinch.

wilson chandler is another interesting prospect. with gallo and possibly melo coming into the mix, there's no room for him on those knicks.

thaddeus young is exactly that - young. i think given the minutes and the right talent around him he could turn into the next gerald wallace.

AK is old, dudley is being groomed to take over for grant hill, so neither of those names intrigue me. the rest are also relatively unobtainable imo, or will be too costly to obtain.

if i had to rank them: gibson, webster, young, outlaw, wilson chandler but i'd be pretty happy with any of them.

and as for jan vasely, i remember when i was reading up on him before the draft thinking "this kid is the white shawn kemp." he's a pf through and through in my mind, not even a stretch 4. flat out... banger. slams it home. i like him but not really in the spirit of this thread, just imo.

[nate33]

Funny, nate. I just saw P/U ratio mentioned elsewhere and thought it was a neat stat.

The other critical element of our idea SF is that he be able to defend., and that's harder to quantify.

I know Casspi ranks low in P/U (.67), but his rookie numbers compare fine to Battier's (.71), Gerald Wallace (.60), and Prince (.72). I think he'd be ideal, given how big, long and athletic he is, and that he plays with the passion of a caged animal. But the Kings are terrible trade partners for us.

I like Casspi in general, but I'm a little disappointed with his P/U ratio. I'd certainly take him if the cost was minimal, but I'm hesitant to sacrifice much to get him unless he gives us a reason to believe that he can thrive in a low-usage role.

I'd be happy with a draft pick like Vesely if we also added a veteran like Battier on a relatively short-term deal. That would be a sweet offseason.

The one thing that I find encouraging is that there are quite a few role playing SF's available in free agency next summer (Kirilenko, Battier, Dudley, Moute and Prince) as well as a few more like Marvin Williams that we might be able to buy off for free. It's the same situation at center. There are a number of decent defensive role-playing defensive centers who are free agents next year (Perkins, Horford [RFA], Pryzbilla, Dalembert, Mohammed, Chandler).

[nate33]

I should have included Tayshaun Prince in my list of interesting targets. He'll turn 31 in February so he probably has 3 or so good years left. He's a good defender and a good 3-point shoooter, and he'll bring championship experience.

[doclinkin]

and as for jan vasely, i remember when i was reading up on him before the draft thinking "this kid is the white shawn kemp." he's a pf through and through in my mind, not even a stretch 4. flat out... banger. slams it home. i like him but not really in the spirit of this thread, just imo.

Nope. He's hitting 48% from Euro3, albeit at 1.5 attempts per game. Posts decent numbers in athletic measures like steals and blocks (sorting the per40 numbers from the PF and SF position respectively). He's got relatively short arms, but he's noted for his defense, playing the pointman in Belgrade's zone press, initiates the defensive pressure. As a youngster in the notoriously difficult to crack Euro system he started for the squad in their postseason run.

Looking more carefully though he's a foul waiting to happen, plays scratching clawing defense that they won't let you get away with in the NBA. And lacks the suave grace of a player like Nico Batum:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbFCA3lb09s&feature=related[/youtube]

Still, there are Euro ballers who can do the job. Draftees or not. I always thought Romain Sato would find his way back to the US.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fP9-m9fq8-g[/youtube]

[LyricalRico]

I should have included Tayshaun Prince in my list of interesting targets. He'll turn 31 in February so he probably has 3 or so good years left. He's a good defender and a good 3-point shoooter, and he'll bring championship experience.

Prince is also familiar with the system. He could be expensive, though, unless there's a drastic change in the salary system. And even then, if he's gotta take less money, I have to think he'll take less to play for a contender. I'd sort of put Kirilenko in the same group of guys who will have an inflated value, especially since he can also be signed as a PF (which is typically a more expensive position to fill).

I like Jared Dudley but if we're assuming a Wall/Arenas backcourt, I'd like my SF to have more size. Despite some of the statistical data, I've always liked Marvin Williams as a role playing SF and I think he might still have some upside. We'd have to trade for him, though. A guy like Mbah a Moute could be the best combo of size, defense, and affordability.

[doclinkin]

More Sato:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRaJ8b7kuV4&NR=1[/youtube]

Defender who has developed into a three point threat even from NBA range, plays larger than he is due to silly wingspan, nice NBA athleticism, willing to be a roleplayer but wants minutes more than money, doesn't need a starring role, but maybe winning the MVP changes his mind on that score.

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

Great analysis, but it might be a little premature to assume Gilbert will be in the team's long term plans without seeing how he works with Wall. I realize it's a slow summer with nothing else much to talk about, but there are so many question marks with this teams roster and future moves that it's impossible to see who fits our team the best come next summer.

Great analysis nonetheless.

[Ruzious]

Great analysis, but it might be a little premature to assume Gilbert will be in the team's long term plans without seeing how he works with Wall. I realize it's a slow summer with nothing else much to talk about, but there are so many question marks with this teams roster and future moves that it's impossible to see who fits our team the best come next summer.

Great analysis nonetheless.

I think this is a great thread idea, but I would question one of the criteria - usage - because we don't know if Gil fits in the long-term plans. If he doesn't, then we might actually be better off with a high usage player.

I concur with what pancakes said about a bunch of young 3's - particularly Thad Young and the 2 Knickerbockers. Wes Johnson on Minny is a rookie that I think eventually fits the role perfectly.

I'm a fan of Dudley as far as he gets the most out of his limited physical ability, but not a fan of Dudley as far as... he's got limited physical ability. I think Cartier Martin can pretty much do what Dud does.

If we don't get a great talent, we can go the old effective guy route with either Battier or Prince - both of them being UFA's. Would it be crazy to get both of them - assuming their cost is low due to age? Keep em both fresh for the playoffs?

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

I didn't mean to question whether or not the tread was needed. I just meant that it's impossible to tell who the ideal small forward will be in a years time, the time in which we will most likely be looking for this ideal small forward, due to all the question marks this team will have next year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I haven't read any of the above posts in this thread yet. (I will, later.)

First impression on finding the ideal small forward: Batum will be a superstar.

Second thought: Wizards should draft Kenneth Faried. Rebounds at a sick rate. High motor. Not really a SF, but he's a Rodman type. Will score very well in the NBA, too.

[Dat2U]

Good list Nate but right now, I'd say Batum is unattainable. I don't see Portland trading him anything short of someone like Chris Paul in a package.

Gerald Wallace had been available at one point but unfortunately that ship has sailed.

I'm pretty certain Taj Gibson is a pure PF.

I didn't see Iggy on the list unless you assumed he wasn't a good fit.

Kirilenko, Dudley & Battier are my favorites. AK & Battier are free agents next offseason.

[Ruzious]

I forgot about AK being a free agent. So, that's 3 of the best defensive 3's I've ever seen (AK, Battier, and Prince) all UFA's after this season. Big supply should lower the price. I'd go after 1 even if we're good at the 3.

[WizarDynasty]

I forgot about AK being a free agent. So, that's 3 of the best defensive 3's I've ever seen (AK, Battier, and Prince) all UFA's after this season. Big supply should lower the price. I'd go after 1 even if we're good at the 3.

Co-Sign

[Silvie Lysandra]

You forgot someone who actually failed to make your cutoff by a few minutes!


http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... hdo01.html

His PER/Usage ratio is .917, which would put him just above Gallo on your list.

As you can see, he's always shot decent percentages, and he's athletic. But he's also added a 3-point shot to his game, and he's a good defender, as shown by his respectable per-36 block and steal numbers as well as his good DRTG. Even though he's the starter at SF for the Warriors, the right package might be able to pry him away.

Also, Donte Greene could be someone we can target, maybe in 2012 - he simply won't get the minutes with the glut of forwards they have, and thus will depress his value no matter how high Kings fans are on him. His PER sucks but the guy can shoot and he has all the physical ability to be not just a good, but a GREAT defender.

I'd give up a weakly protected (top 3) for Greene.

[Pradamaster]

You forgot someone who actually failed to make your cutoff by a few minutes!


http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... hdo01.html

His PER/Usage ratio is .917, which would put him just above Gallo on your list.

As you can see, he's always shot decent percentages, and he's athletic. But he's also added a 3-point shot to his game, and he's a good defender, as shown by his respectable per-36 block and steal numbers as well as his good DRTG. Even though he's the starter at SF for the Warriors, the right package might be able to pry him away.

Also, Donte Greene could be someone we can target, maybe in 2012 - he simply won't get the minutes with the glut of forwards they have, and thus will depress his value no matter how high Kings fans are on him. His PER sucks but the guy can shoot and he has all the physical ability to be not just a good, but a GREAT defender.

I'd give up a weakly protected (top 3) for Greene.

I've been a Dorrell fan for a while and was pushing the Wiz to sign him on BF. Alas, they didn't.