SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years

[supersub15]

Code: Select all

Year       DRTG ON  DRTG OFF
2006-2007   107.8    105.9
2007-2008   108.7    107.0
2008-2009   113.1    106.2
2009-2010   116.9    108.3

Over 4 years, Bargnani's presence on/off:
DRTG ON: 110.54
DRTG OFF: 104.28

We are 6 points better defensively if Bargnani sits.

On offence though:
ORTG ON: 108.56
ORTG OFF: 106.23

We are 2 points worse off offensively if Bargnani sits.

Basically, Bargnani costs the team 4 points over 100 possessions.

Over 82 games, with Bargnani, the team is a 35.8-win team. Without Bargnani, the team is a 46.3 win team.

From the posts that I did read, the main point that I got was that the defenders around him got worse. The answer is "absolutely". But the numbers posted in the OP take that into account. He doesn't go from 113.1 to 116.9 by himself. He got help, lol. But the point remains the same. Even with those same horrendous defenders, the team - without Bargnani - still posted a DRTG of 108.3 last year.

Basically, as an example, Calderon's weakness becomes exposed big time with Bargnani, but gets masked a bit with Johnson.

I think it was Courtside who posted individual DRTG to prove that the players around him got worse. Unfortunately, you're mixing stats here. You can't use individual DRTG to explain team DRTG. One is derived from the other, and those individual numbers include 2800 minutes of Bargnani, i.e. they're already inflated.

I'll give you here more context:
Bosh and Bargnani played together 4642 minutes over 4 years. The team DRTG with both of them on the court was a horrendous 113.2.

However, the minute Bargnani stepped off the court, and Bosh played with someone else in the frontcourt, the team DRTG (5895 minutes over 4 years) dropped to 104.9. That's with the same crappy defenders that everybody keeps talking about.

Here's the year-over-year breakdown:

Code: Select all

Year       Team DRTG with Bosh/No Bargnani
2006-2007   104.31   
2007-2008   103.07
2008-2009   105.55
2009-2010   106.42

Those same crappy defenders all of a sudden don't look half as bad with Bosh and another big (Johnson, Rasho, O'Neil, Humphries, etc., even Hedo at PF), and Bargnani sitting on the bench.

Discuss.

[dacrusha]

Nothing to discuss.

You WILL hear plenty of excuses, though.

[Gold Chain]

What about the fact that this will be his first season as a first option on a team that will score and defend by committee?

I'll wait and see how this year goes before coming to the conclusion we're a 46.3 win team without him.

[C3SIUM]

i heart SoTD's.

This team is a 14 win team without Bargs next year

[J-Roc]

I would love it if we'd just play the stats more often, and see how it goes.

At the same time, do the Raps brass ever bother to look at these numbers? Do they just not matter?

[Dalek]

I am sure this topic has been discussed at length before, so I am not sure why we need to go into his defensive short-comings.

He will have a very different team with him this year and the results may improve. Bargs is a decent man-to-man defender, poor help one, and is a terrible rebounder. I think most know this.

If Bargs is slotted into his traditional 4 spot, your point could become moot. I think he could improve with better defenders around him and if he doesn't have to defend centers.

[Reignman]

I am sure this topic has been discussed at length before, so I am not sure why we need to go into his defensive short-comings.

He will have a very different team with him this year and the results may improve. Bargs is a decent man-to-man defender, poor help one, and is a terrible rebounder. I think most know this.

If Bargs is slotted into his traditional 4 spot, your point could become moot. I think he could improve with better defenders around him and if he doesn't have to defend centers.

I believe his defensive numbers at the PF spot are actually worse than his defensive numbers at C.

Bottom line, his offensive role doesn't matter, his teammates don't matter and coaching doesn't matter. Bargs needs to improve point blank.

You can't just mask that type of hole in your starting frontcourt, he needs to show tangible improvement. Well, I guess D12 can mask it for Shard but that's the exception and definitely not the rule and I don't see us getting a D12 anytime soon.

[OvertimeNO]

Just for context, what are the defensive ratings for other Raptors that have been with us over those four years?

For each of those four years, I mean. And including the guys that have gone on to play for other teams. Or that arrived here after 2006.

[dacrusha]

Hey SS, can you easily pull up the DRTG/OFF numbers for all the raptor players for last season?

[novi13]

You know, I find it so silly that people take this crap seriously. Are you, through your statistics trying to say Andrea got WORSE defensively each year? Seriously?

I can't stand this numbers crap anymore. Anyone who understands basketball knows that numbers mean so much less than most on this board give them credit for. I bet by numbers, Shareef was a positive player on (W/L)

[The Main Event]

[Truthrising]

which explains why we need to trade bargnani for kwame brown.

[Local_NG_Idiot]

You know, I find it so silly that people take this crap seriously. Are you, through your statistics trying to say Andrea got WORSE defensively each year? Seriously?

I can't stand this numbers crap anymore. Anyone who understands basketball knows that numbers mean so much less than most on this board give them credit for. I bet by numbers, Shareef was a positive player on (W/L)

These types of statistics mean a whole lot when put into context. It's not that he got worse defensively, it's that more of his minutes in his later years were against starters (ie: better talent) vs. his early days of coming off of the bench.

What they also show overall, is as a starter, he must improve defensively to take the next step and become a net positive impact player while on the court (ie: his offensive prowess doesn't overcome his defensive defficiencies). Furthermore, you can kinda extrapolate from the statement above and Sub's yearly breakdown that if he cannot improve his defense and his offense levels out, he'll be much more useful to teams as a sixth man.

[Ripp]

You know, I find it so silly that people take this crap seriously. Are you, through your statistics trying to say Andrea got WORSE defensively each year? Seriously?

I can't stand this numbers crap anymore. Anyone who understands basketball knows that numbers mean so much less than most on this board give them credit for. I bet by numbers, Shareef was a positive player on (W/L)

Probably his defensive impact became worse as he transitioned from the bench to a starting role, since starters are presumably harder to guard than bench guys.

Regarding numbers and statistics in general...err, just because you don't understand them doesn't mean they are meaningless

[DG88]

So he's only gotten worse defensively since he entered the league. What's his new excuse now the team needs his offense more than his defense. Bargs can score in bunches and that's great but until he actually tries to defend instead of just watching the ball go into the basket he'll just be a liability.

[Basketball_Jones]

The numbers get worse every year as his minutes increase and the roster gets filled with bad defenders. None the less, the team is worse defensively with him on the floor. That much is true. When Triano subbed him off at the end of close games for defensive purposes, that pretty much proved it.

[Canucklehead]

Hey SS, can you easily pull up the DRTG/OFF numbers for all the raptor players for last season?

When you single out a player like this you should provide the #s for everyone else on the team as well.

At least then it wouldn't seem as much like SS is directly attacking a player.

[miruss2001]

You know, I find it so silly that people take this crap seriously. Are you, through your statistics trying to say Andrea got WORSE defensively each year? Seriously?

I can't stand this numbers crap anymore. Anyone who understands basketball knows that numbers mean so much less than most on this board give them credit for. I bet by numbers, Shareef was a positive player on (W/L)

Yea, statistical evidence is useless...

Your point however, I think, is that these numbers fall within a context. In the case of Bargs numbers seemingly getting worse we have to graft that onto the context of a team that overall was getting worse in many defensive categories.

I think in the end was will be able to say that Bargs certainly is a contributor to the defensive woes (a definitive factor) but is hardly the primary or single cause. What is clear is that he is nowhere close to where he needs to be to be effective on the defensive end.

[jonny three time]

So his defense has regressed every season.....

Ya, this is why stats shouldn't be taken too seriously

[cdel00]

BUT if you look at the combos you'd see some successful ones in that nightmare of D stats for Bargs.

Specifically the lineup of:
Jack-DeRozan-Weems-Johnson-Bargnani had a DRTG of 90 and
Calderon-DeRozan-Weems-Johnson-Bargnani had a DRTG of 108.

A ray of sunshine in a dreadful history or just an anomoly cause by a small sample size only time will tell as those 6 players will have lots of burn this year together.