SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years

[ZefSyde]

Ah, but the point is, how is this team stat computed? You sum over all the different lineups that appeared during the course of a season. So assuming we have enough data, we can analyze lineups too.
And so that is essentially what this stat does...sum up the aggregate performance of lineups which involve Bargs and those which don't, over the past four years.

Key word, lineups. Bargs is only 1/5th of said lineups.

[Chevy Chase]

But Bargnani... look, he's almost definitely not going to ever make an All-Star Team, and if he does, it will be as the last man picked like Mehmet Okur or Jamaal Maglore.

I fully agree with you. But he's about to start a 5 year contract at 10 mil per. We don't need him to be an all-star at those numbers, just a consistant third wheel.

I actually wanted to quote your earlier post where you talked about the team playing him out of position. And again I wanted to fully agree with you. At power forward it would be much harder for the other team to get the switch on him, as they do when he covers the other teams center. He is just so horrible at defending smaller players. Where I see the dilemma of the coaches, is that he is actually a very capable man-to-man defender against other bigs, even those that have weight advantages on him.

Perhaps a trade for Dampier isn't such a bad idea. Keep AB pinned to the other teams PF on D and in the high post on Offence. Let someone who knows how to plant their legs set the screens.

[Paperclip]

So he is a big defensive liability and generally has a negative impact on the floor mainly because he is supposed to be our center. No big surprise there. I think anyone who isn`t drinking the koolaid already knows the impact of his bad defence. The guy is usually out of the picture and out of position on defence, I don`t think any excuse can be made there yet there will always be plenty of them.

[andreafan]

I agree this notion that andrea is an nba center is faulty, but unfortunately he's been put in that position by default essentially.So judging andreas defensive deficiencies using traditional nba centers as a comparative holds no merit. Hes natural position is the 4 for christ sake.

[3thomas]

When do we start holding AB accountable? Really does it have to take us bringing D Howard at centre to say now Andrea you have no excuse? No excuse for not rolling to the basket when your team mate makes a shot? No excuse for not boxing out your man no excuse for getting lost on the defensive rotation and losing you man, no excuse for not bringing it every night?

What is the watermark here? 7 footer with great shooting touch and ball handling skills, amazing skill set, no seven footer can do what he does....ya da ya da and then what? When does winning come into the equation? What good is all that crap if he doesnt help the team win consistenantly.

[redred9]

I think the only excuse you could make for him is that the guy is not, and never has been, a centre. If a guy does not practice playing at that spot AT ALL until the age of 19 there is going to be a very steep learning curve, and tbh it's not really fair on him to put him in that spot where the game there doesn't come naturally to him at all.

Let him play at his natural position and all of a sudden his negatives aren't so bad after all. I mean Tim Duncan didn't even want to play centre for most of his career, yet BC thinks Bargnani should be matching up on Bynum and Howard. Physically he might be able do it, but it's probably at the expense of the rest of his game.

[Courtside]

The constants over the past 4 years have been Bosh, Calderon and Bargnani. For **** and giggles, I'm going to include the starting wings over those seasons as well, sticking with Bargs over those same 4 seasons since that what this thread is about.

TJ Ford 06-07 = 106 (29.9 mpg)
Calderon 07-08 = 109 (30.3 mpg)
Calderon 08-09 = 112 (38.0 mpg)
Calderon 09-10 = 116 (36.1 mpg)
(dropped -10 over 4 seasons)

Parker 06-07 = 108 (33.4 mpg)
Parker 07-08 = 108 (32.3 mpg)
Parker 08-09 = 111 (33.0 mpg)
DeRozan 09-10 = 115 (21.6 mpg)
(dropped -7 over 4 seasons)

Garbajosa 06-07 = 105 (28.5 mpg)
Moon 07-08 = 102 (27.8 mpg)
Moon 08-09 = 107 (25.5mpg)
Turkoglu 09-10 = 113 (30.7 mpg)
(dropped -8 over 4 seasons)

Bosh 06-07 = 104 (38.6 mpg)
Bosh 07-08 = 105 (36.2 mpg)
Bosh 08-09 = 108 (38.0 mpg)
Bosh 09-10 = 111 (36.1 mpg)
(dropped -7 over 4 seasons)

Bargnani 06-07 = 106 (25.1 mpg) (Rasho = 104)
Bargnani 07-08 = 109 (23.9 mpg) (Rasho = 107)
Bargnani 08-09 = 110 (31.4 mpg) (Oneal = 107)
Bargnani 09-10 = 113 (35.0 mpg)
(Bargs dropped -7 over 4 seasons)

So... it would appear that from 2006, the DRtg of each starter at each position dropped by either -7 or -8, with the exception of PG where it dropped by -10. If you use Jose's numbers from 06-07, it still would have dropped by -8.

Seems to me the entire team dropped by a more or less equal amount, year to year, no?

[MEDIC]

In my books everybody gets a fresh start this season. It is a new team with a completely new dynamic....let's see who picks up their games.

No sense dwelling on the past.

I'll reserve judgement until at least mid season.

BTW, nice post Courtside ^.

[Undefeated]

The constants over the past 4 years have been Bosh, Calderon and Bargnani. For **** and giggles, I'm going to include the starting wings over those seasons as well, sticking with Bargs over those same 4 seasons since that what this thread is about.

TJ Ford 06-07 = 106 (29.9 mpg)
Calderon 07-08 = 109 (30.3 mpg)
Calderon 08-09 = 112 (38.0 mpg)
Calderon 09-10 = 116 (36.1 mpg)
(dropped -10 over 4 seasons)

Parker 06-07 = 108 (33.4 mpg)
Parker 07-08 = 108 (32.3 mpg)
Parker 08-09 = 111 (33.0 mpg)
DeRozan 09-10 = 115 (21.6 mpg)
(dropped -7 over 4 seasons)

Garbajosa 06-07 = 105 (28.5 mpg)
Moon 07-08 = 102 (27.8 mpg)
Moon 08-09 = 107 (25.5mpg)
Turkoglu 09-10 = 113 (30.7 mpg)
(dropped -8 over 4 seasons)

Bosh 06-07 = 104 (38.6 mpg)
Bosh 07-08 = 105 (36.2 mpg)
Bosh 08-09 = 108 (38.0 mpg)
Bosh 09-10 = 111 (36.1 mpg)
(dropped -7 over 4 seasons)

Bargnani 06-07 = 106 (25.1 mpg) (Rasho = 104)
Bargnani 07-08 = 109 (23.9 mpg) (Rasho = 107)
Bargnani 08-09 = 110 (31.4 mpg) (Oneal = 107)
Bargnani 09-10 = 113 (35.0 mpg)
(Bargs dropped -7 over 4 seasons)

So... it would appear that from 2006, the DRtg of each starter at each position dropped by either -7 or -8, with the exception of PG where it dropped by -10. If you use Jose's numbers from 06-07, it still would have dropped by -8.

Seems to me the entire team dropped by a more or less equal amount, year to year, no?

Good post.

[TMMC]

The constants over the past 4 years have been Bosh, Calderon and Bargnani. For **** and giggles, I'm going to include the starting wings over those seasons as well, sticking with Bargs over those same 4 seasons since that what this thread is about.

TJ Ford 06-07 = 106 (29.9 mpg)
Calderon 07-08 = 109 (30.3 mpg)
Calderon 08-09 = 112 (38.0 mpg)
Calderon 09-10 = 116 (36.1 mpg)
(dropped -10 over 4 seasons)

Parker 06-07 = 108 (33.4 mpg)
Parker 07-08 = 108 (32.3 mpg)
Parker 08-09 = 111 (33.0 mpg)
DeRozan 09-10 = 115 (21.6 mpg)
(dropped -7 over 4 seasons)

Garbajosa 06-07 = 105 (28.5 mpg)
Moon 07-08 = 102 (27.8 mpg)
Moon 08-09 = 107 (25.5mpg)
Turkoglu 09-10 = 113 (30.7 mpg)
(dropped -8 over 4 seasons)

Bosh 06-07 = 104 (38.6 mpg)
Bosh 07-08 = 105 (36.2 mpg)
Bosh 08-09 = 108 (38.0 mpg)
Bosh 09-10 = 111 (36.1 mpg)
(dropped -7 over 4 seasons)

Bargnani 06-07 = 106 (25.1 mpg) (Rasho = 104)
Bargnani 07-08 = 109 (23.9 mpg) (Rasho = 107)
Bargnani 08-09 = 110 (31.4 mpg) (
Bargnani 09-10 = 113 (35.0 mpg)
(Bargs dropped -7 over 4 seasons)

So... it would appear that from 2006, the DRtg of each starter at each position dropped by either -7 or -8, with the exception of PG where it dropped by -10. If you use Jose's numbers from 06-07, it still would have dropped by -8.

Seems to me the entire team dropped by a more or less equal amount, year to year, no?

Well that basically confirmed what I thought and seen with my eyes and a much better layout then saying "the team got worst defensively every year and therefore Bargnani is the sole reason, look at these team numbers"

If numbers is what some people need to come to a conclusion then you have just provided it...

[TMMC]

I think the only excuse you could make for him is that the guy is not, and never has been, a centre. If a guy does not practice playing at that spot AT ALL until the age of 19 there is going to be a very steep learning curve, and tbh it's not really fair on him to put him in that spot where the game there doesn't come naturally to him at all.

Let him play at his natural position and all of a sudden his negatives aren't so bad after all. I mean Tim Duncan didn't even want to play centre for most of his career, yet BC thinks Bargnani should be matching up on Bynum and Howard. Physically he might be able do it, but it's probably at the expense of the rest of his game.

This has been another misconception in most Bargnani discussions... People think because he is listed as the starting center that Bargnani is actually always playing center and that is not the case... Infact Chris Bosh has played more at the center position than Bargnani in every single season... For some odd reason this simple fact is tossed aside, Bosh always got a free pass and all of the presence or lack there of at the center position was always Bargnani...

More so than Bosh, Bargnani has played the majority of his minutes at his natural position so far in his career... According to most the center ancors the defense and according to alot of fans here the reason our defense has been so pooress is because our center is a poor help defender, unfortunely they fail to see that Bargnani only played aprox 40% of his minutes at the center position...

[Courtside]

I wasn't trying to defeat anything - these are the numbers that should have been posted in the OP to provide context. Suppose someone started a thread that showed how Bosh's DRtg got worse every year over the past 4 years - does it provide the correct context, or is it fair to say his defense alone got progressively worse?

I mean, wasn't there a SotD thread a couple of days ago that showed how DRtg ON and DRtg OFF was largely tied to the quality of the replacement? It's no surprise that guys like Rasho, JO and Amir have better DRtg than Andrea - so his number slips by nature of having a good backup. Other positions didn't necessarily have backups who were better defensively - some were (Delfino, TJ, Wright), some weren't (Hump, Kapono, Graham) - so perhaps other starters ratings would have dropped even more if they had better backups than say, Kris Humphries.

[calvo2612]

Code: Select all

Year       DRTG ON  DRTG OFF
2006-2007   107.8    105.9
2007-2008   108.7    107.0
2008-2009   113.1    106.2
2009-2010   116.9    108.3

Over 4 years, Bargnani's presence on/off:
DRTG ON: 110.54
DRTG OFF: 104.28

We are 6 points better defensively if Bargnani sits.

On offence though:
ORTG ON: 108.56
ORTG OFF: 106.23

We are 2 points worse off offensively if Bargnani sits.

Basically, Bargnani costs the team 4 points over 100 possessions.

Over 82 games, with Bargnani, the team is a 35.8-win team. Without Bargnani, the team is a 46.3 win team.

Discuss.

are'nt you guys tired of this?
just like over to the leaf forum...a yr later and the talk is still the kessel trade...pls guys let it die

[redred9]

More so than Bosh, Bargnani has played the majority of his minutes at his natural position so far in his career... According to most the center ancors the defense and according to alot of fans here the reason our defense has been so pooress is because our center is a poor help defender, unfortunely they fail to see that Bargnani only played aprox 40% of his minutes at the center position...

How did you come up with those numbers? I honestly cannot recall Bosh guarding the opposing centre much at all except on switches. A lot of the time it was definately Bargnani's job to zone the keyway, and most of time he was the closest help defender. The fact is a lot of the time he wasn't even looking in the direction of the ball handler and wasn't even aware of anyone going towards the basket until it was too late- which is basically the worst crime a defensive pivot can make.

Bosh really isn't as great as our system made him out to be, but certainly having Bargnani next to him contributed a lot to the reason why we underachieved.

[WestCoastCoach]

But ya, it had nothing to do with what you were saying.

It didn't. And with the way you're going at it, you're just going to make everyone dislike Bargs even more. He's not a messiah so stop making him out to be. His absolute highest ceiling will be a Dirk-lite and even that would blow everyone away. He's not going to be an MVP and it's possible he barely squeaks on to one All-Star team. He's a solid player for what he brings - but the fact that everyone sees him as an absolute star is stupid. Like if he ends up being a 3rd/4th option on a winning team that he would ultimately be a failure, which is just as stupid.

Bargs has his niche carved out for him, and that's as a streak scorer and a solid man-to-man defensive player. He's horrible on help D and he doesn't rebound and that has been fact thus far. I think you can build a winning, contending team with him on your starting 5, but I don't think you can build a winning, contending team building a team around him - the exact same as Bosh. He needs a star winger and defensive players around him. And by the looks of things, we may just get that in Demar, Ed and Amir. We'll know how Demar looks long term this season to see if the work put in translates, and we'll see if we can land a top pick to really put us on the right track. But as things stand Bargs is our best player and we're lottery bound.

That's a very good dose of realism...you sure you're on the right board

[LiSTWithLani]

I'm not an over-the-top Bargnani supporter, but to say that he is underutilized offensively is an understatement. Our defence last year really made Bargnani stick out, as his good man-man D was rarely seen as he was oft forced to switch and help cover opposing wings/guards as they attacked the paint, waltzing in past Jose and Turkoglu.

[sh00n]

I'm not an over-the-top Bargnani supporter, but to say that he is underutilized offensively is an understatement. Our defence last year really made Bargnani stick out, as his good man-man D was rarely seen as he was oft forced to switch and help cover opposing wings/guards as they attacked the paint, waltzing in past Jose and Turkoglu.

That's a good point. There was one game where he really showed glimpses of being a great help defender - against Washington I believe. He had 4 or 5 blocks and I think all of them were switching off and helping someone else who got beat.

Bargs really is underrated in terms of man to man defense. If he could improve his help defense consistently, I'd be perfectly fine with his defense in general. Just needs to get his rebounds to around the 7-8 area.

[Crazy-Canuck]

Bargs is a bad help defender right now. His man to man id decent.

His overall defence is below avg. because of the position he plays.

However, I believe an equal amount of blame should be placed on management and coaching staff.

Bargs was basically anchoring a defence for the first time in his life last year. Things compounded when he was surrounded by poor defenders at the 1-4 spots.
A new defensive system was implemented that had better defensive players confused about rotations, where to go, where to hedge etc...
A revolving door of new players which can result in a lack of communication, trust etc...

If the Raps can get a core of guys to stay together and an actual coach that knows what they are doing, I believe we'll see a better defensive team.

Iavoroni using a complex system of our bigs hedging, the constant switching and letting our opponents bomb away from 3 was a horrible fit for our team.

A year of familiarity and a full camp from a competent coach in PJ should see some improvement from a defensive stand point.

[Sifu]

The statistical analysis that started this thread had a flawed premise and really, when you look at a team game, with 5 players on a team on the court at the same time, you really do need to factor in correlations. Thankfully, someone a few posts back did just that and saw that the trend for not just Bargs but many players on the team had a downward trend.

However, we can all agree that Bargs as well as all the other players on this team can improve defensively.

[junot111]

all I can say is that he will hurt the team defensively if he's not playing with a defensive anchor in the paint