SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years

RonaldArtest · Post #281 » by **RonaldArtest** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:36 pm

The guy needs a big-man coach in the worst way, and a lot of the onus for Bargs wretched help defence IMO falls on Colangelo. His man to man is decent and his blocking ability has improved, but he's still lost and late providing help D. He's obviously not the most athletic cat out there, but a high IQ and awareness level makes up for lacking the foot speed (to a certain degree). Why he doesn't have a Ewing or Kareem teaching him throughout the year is confusing, given how much Colangelo and the team has invested in the kid. I mean, you ask a player who's played (as fas as I know) SF and likely spurts of PF his entire basketball life to all of a sudden become the team's centre and last line of defence - it's a totally different mind-set and has much more responsibilities to the position. And he has to learn this against the best C's in the world who have been playing this position for years?

I'm no Bargs apologist - there's aspects to his game and character that I certainly find unpleasing. But the guy has been given a pretty tough task without much assistance. Some fault here should be on BC.

Laowai · Post #282 » by **Laowai** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:41 pm

Statistics can prove almost anything but Bargs is a unique player.
While I gave up watching hockey a long time ago he reminds me somewhat like the Big M was in the glory days of the leafs and subsequently as a Hab.
He isn't like another big in the league and that includes Dirk.
He can make a lot of things look easy but also has a certain flumsy quality.
He has lost concentration and he also doesn't rebound as well as he could.
This isn't hate directed at Bosh but some of his lack of rebounding especially on the offensive end as decoy to draw the center out for easier penetration for him.
With Amir who I can see as a David Lee with defense and requires few touches he will get more easy put backs and more free throws.
I'm looking for the breakout year for him.

andreafan · Post #283 » by **andreafan** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:07 pm

Yup, keep making andrea the scapegoat that will justify the raptor woes i guess. :roll:

Uncle Hare · Post #284 » by **Uncle Hare** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:21 pm

Can't wait to watch andrea proving people wrong... again.

elmer_yuck · Post #285 » by **elmer_yuck** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:31 pm

Uncle Hare wrote:Can't wait to watch andrea proving people wrong... again.

Andrea has never proven me wrong.
He has always sucked, and I expect he will continue to suck.

andreafan · Post #286 » by **andreafan** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:43 pm

elmer_yuck wrote:
Uncle Hare wrote:Can't wait to watch andrea proving people wrong... again.

Andrea has never proven me wrong.
He has always sucked, and I expect he will continue to suck.

With a nick like elmer yuck i would expect nothing less.------- :lol:

JN · Post #287 » by JN » Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:45 pm

Uncle Hare wrote:Can't wait to watch andrea proving people wrong... again.

What exactly has he proven. He has a PER of 15.5 (average for a starter), and is a bottom quartile defender in the league.

All he has proven is that his supporters have low expecations, and are delusional in blowing things he does decently (but no better then average at best such as man defence) out of proportion.

ska · Post #288 » by **ska** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:48 pm

AB FTA /36 increased both in number and in % during the last 3 season.
I don't see why this trend will not continue

This will put his PPG up to 20

The same things its happening on Rebound, and keeping the improvement will result in more than 7 RPG. If I have to bet I will say 7.5.

BPG will not go higher than 2, no matter what.
So, a 20+7.5+2 will make me happy.

And the one that can easily increase more than that its RBG as CB4 have left...

Ripp · Post #289 » by **Ripp** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:53 pm

ska wrote:AB FTA /36 increased both in number and in % during the last 3 season.
I don't see why this trend will not continue
This will put his PPG up to 20

The same things its happening on Rebound, and keeping the improvement will result in more than 7 RPG. If I have to bet I will say 7.5.

BPG will not go higher than 2, no matter what.
So, a 20+7.5+2 will make me happy.

And the one that can easily increase more than that its RBG as CB4 have left...

So let's bet, then. Put your sig or preferably your money where your mouth is...

Post #290 » by **Schad** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:54 pm

ska wrote:AB FTA /36 increased both in number and in % during the last 3 season.
I don't see why this trend will not continue

Except for the part where his FTA dropped from 3.9 attempts/36 down to 3.0 last year, the worst mark in his career.

This will put his PPG up to 20

Not much to do with defense.

The same things its happening on Rebound, and keeping the improvement will result in more than 7 RPG. If I have to bet I will say 7.5.

His defensive rebounding in '09/'10 was actually worse than the year before. And if you consider his rebounding growth to be linear, you get a rate of improvement of .4% rebound rate and .23 reb/36 per year...at that rate he'll hit the 7.0 rebs/36 mark in '12/'13, and he'll become a low-average rebounder for a big in the year 2022.

andreafan · Post #291 » by **andreafan** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:06 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:
ska wrote:AB FTA /36 increased both in number and in % during the last 3 season.
I don't see why this trend will not continue

Except for the part where his FTA dropped from 3.9 attempts/36 down to 3.0 last year, the worst mark in his career.

This will put his PPG up to 20

Not much to do with defense.

The same things its happening on Rebound, and keeping the improvement will result in more than 7 RPG. If I have to bet I will say 7.5.

His defensive rebounding in '09/'10 was actually worse than the year before. And if you consider his rebounding growth to be linear, you get a rate of improvement of .4% rebound rate and .23 reb/36 per year...at that rate he'll hit the 7.0 rebs/36 mark in '12/'13, and he'll become a low-average rebounder for a big in the year 2022.

No offence, but i have not seen number crunching taken so literally in all my life. Baseball is about numbers , not basketball, enough with these per 36 minute breakdowns my brain hurts. :-?

Ripp · Post #292 » by **Ripp** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:12 pm

Basketball these days is becoming a lot more quantitative. Intuitively it makes a lot of sense...there is tons of data available, and whenever you have data, the natural thing to do is to try to analyze it.

Also, this shouldn't be hurting your head...you can look up the per36 minute breakdowns on basketball-reference.com.

strangespot · Post #293 » by **strangespot** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:15 pm

again 20 pages for a topic that has been discussed over and over again.

I don't think it makes too much sense to look at his past numbers now. next season for him will be the first one w/o Bosh and as the focal point of the team. Lets see how that translates to his game. In my opinion, it will have a very positive impact. Infact, its already having in the NT were for the first time he has been made the no. 1 option and leader of the team. He is playing with lots more of energy and focus.

andreafan · Post #294 » by **andreafan** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:27 pm

strangespot wrote:again 20 pages for a topic that has been discussed over and over again.

I don't think it makes too much sense to look at his past numbers now. next season for him will be the first one w/o Bosh and as the focal point of the team. Lets see how that translates to his game. In my opinion, it will have a very positive impact. Infact, its already having in the NT were for the first time he has been made the no. 1 option and leader of the team. He is playing with lots more of energy and focus.

Exactly the past is just that the past. My only concern is the present and how the future might play out. Using linear computations to determine one's future performance based on historical data is faulty at best.

andreafan · Post #295 » by **andreafan** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:28 pm

Can anybody justify bautista's year based on past data. See , i just made my point i guess we can now close the book on this chapter.

Tacoma · Post #296 » by **Tacoma** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:31 pm

JN wrote:
Uncle Hare wrote:Can't wait to watch andrea proving people wrong... again.

What exactly has he proven. He has a PER of 15.5 (average for a starter), and is a bottom quartile defender in the league.

All he has proven is that his supporters have low expecations, and are delusional in blowing things he does decently (but no better then average at best such as man defence) out of proportion.

After a somwhat promising rookie year, if someone said whether he'd be happy if Bargs, at 7+ft and 250+lbs would have a career average after 4 years in the league of 14/5/1 and 17/6/1.4 in his 4th year for a rebounding starved Raptors team, then I would say no. Time and time again, Bargs supporters say "haters" (i.e., anyone who is negative on their beloved) will eat their words and if you search, there have been threads started about eating words, and this year is no different. But the only words that have been eaten are by those who keep predicting 20/7 every year.

So, how about this... let this coming year be the deciding year. I'm looking at 19/8 and consistent adequate post play at mininum as the threshold as the #1 option C/PF. Bosh's 11 rebounds per game will have to be replaced and certainly a 7ft 250 pounder should be able to pick up 2 more per game to average 8, especially as some have claimed in the past that Bosh has been stealing Bargs' rebounds as another excuse. There's no one stealing anymore, no more excuses.

And talk about excuses - no more. Don't want to hear that Bargs needs time to learn to be the 1st option, learn to play out of a double, or any other additional excuse. He needs to walk the talk.

Post #297 » by **Schad** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:35 pm

andreafan wrote:Exactly the past is just that the past. My only concern is the present and how the future might play out. Using linear computations to determine one's future performance based on historical data is faulty at best.

Should probably tell that to ska...it was his assertion that Bargs' statistical progression indicates a 20/7.5/2 player which led me to comment.

On the more general question of whether past performance is linked to future performance, it's silly to say otherwise...if a player has done one thing over the course of four seasons, the reasonable expectation is that they will continue to do more or less the same going forward, rather than magically reinvent themselves. That can happen, it just isn't likely to happen.

Ripp · Post #298 » by **Ripp** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:36 pm

Good call. I want the Bargnani lovers to put their sigs where their mouth is. If you are so confident that Bargnani will improve to 20/8 or whatever next year, put something on the table. Easy to talk cheap when nothing is at stake.

strangespot · Post #299 » by **strangespot** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:38 pm

Tacoma wrote:
And talk about excuses - no more. Don't want to hear that Bargs needs time to learn to be the 1st option, learn to play out of a double, or any other additional excuse. He needs to walk the talk.

but then again, how can you say that is an excuse ? what is it that makes something an "excuse" ?

I mean, everything that you listed above is actually a FACT. Or did Bargs ever play as a 1st Option for the Raps ? No, Bosh was. Was he ever the focus of the opp. defense ? No, Bosh was. Since he was not, he'll have to adjust to that.

Post #300 » by **supersub15** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:39 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:Should probably tell that to ska...it was his assertion that Bargs' statistical progression indicates a 20/7.5/2 player which led me to comment.

On the more general question of whether past performance is linked to future performance, it's silly to say otherwise...if a player has done one thing over the course of four seasons, the reasonable expectation is that they will continue to do more or less the same going forward, rather than magically reinvent themselves. That can happen, it just isn't likely to happen.

I'm mildly amuse how the andrea fans bring up his offensive output and their expectations thereof to counter any talk about his awful defence.

This thread is not about andrea and his wonderful 20/7.