SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years

[ItsDanger]

These stats are totally meaningless. Its like a good d-man in hockey with a -10 rating on an average team.

[andreafan]

How many points are we better off with calderon's buttock glued to the pine?

[rottenzombie]

It is kinda funny that at the start, the OP did not care to elaborate in this thread like he usually does with his other SoTD post; yet he would add more once everyone else starts to post.

I wonder if we could call this "baiting".

[Schad]

These stats are totally meaningless. Its like a good d-man in hockey with a -10 rating on an average team.

No, it isn't. Rather, it's a player who has been at various times a very bad defender relative to an above-average defensive team, a vary bad defender relative to a below-average defensive team, and an extremely bad defender relative to one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history.

[andreafan]

These stats are totally meaningless. Its like a good d-man in hockey with a -10 rating on an average team.

No, it isn't. Rather, it's a player who has been at various times a very bad defender relative to an above-average defensive team, a vary bad defender relative to a below-average defensive team, and an extremely bad defender relative to one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history.

I had to read that 10 times to figure out what you said schadenfreude, very well disguised.

[Enfur]

It's a good thing we pissed off our franchise player by firing Sam Mitchell and hiring Jay Triano because Sam Mitchell couldn't turn Bargnani into a good NBA player while still winning games.

[ItsDanger]

These stats are totally meaningless. Its like a good d-man in hockey with a -10 rating on an average team.

No, it isn't. Rather, it's a player who has been at various times a very bad defender relative to an above-average defensive team, a vary bad defender relative to a below-average defensive team, and an extremely bad defender relative to one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history.

I'll disagree and I'll provide an example in hockey. Ryan Suter & Shea Weber on Nashville are considered one of the top tandems in hockey. Yet Suter's +/- was +4, Weber's was 0. These kind of stats can be used as an indication only not as a definitive results.

[roundhead0]

These stats are totally meaningless. Its like a good d-man in hockey with a -10 rating on an average team.

If we were to use a hockey analogy, it's more akin to a scorer with poor defense. Usually these players are a net minus at even strength but make up for it by scoring more on the power play. However, what happens if that scorer gets little or no power play time? Then he simply looks bad overall.

The thing with Bargnani is that he is underutilized offensively. So when he's out on the court his bad defensive brings that down, but he doesn't get utilized enough or properly on offense to try to make up for his defensive shortcomings. We'll probably know better next year, but there's a good chance that Clueless Jay won't be able to figure out how to run an offense not centered around Bosh.

[HeyJoe]

So in essence using supersub's conclusions we should banish andrea from the nba because he would be a defensive liability to every team. Am i missing anything?

If you believe that, why not just trade him to a rival team that we want sabotaged?

I guess miami would be a good trading partner huh?

i wouldn't call miami our rival since we're not competing against them for anything

if anything they're our bffs for helping us sell tickets when they come to town

[Schad]

I'll disagree and I'll provide an example in hockey. Ryan Suter & Shea Weber on Nashville are considered one of the top tandems in hockey. Yet Suter's +/- was +4, Weber's was 0. These kind of stats can be used as an indication only not as a definitive results.

Heh, +/- in hockey has long been considered a wholly useless stat, because with no player playing anywhere near half a game, matchups are everything...Suter/Weber play the bulk of the game against the opposing team's best players, who are brought on in a relatively consistent three-man group whose primary purpose is to generate goals.

In basketball, that's rarely the case; a guy like Bargnani plays over three-quarters of his team's minutes, and while starters play more against other starters, they only half or less of their minutes against a full starting lineup. And Bargs has previously come off the bench, where he'd face a higher percentage of reserves, and his defensive splits were still awful.

And yes, they aren't definitive. But when you combine his +/- with other statistical measures like the Synergy stats, the team's performance and with observation, and the consistently low level demonstrated by all of the preceding, it takes an incredible amount of belief in the guy to come to any conclusion save for that he's a truly awful defensive player. And we keep having this discussion over and over because a number of people keep looking at the sky and declaring it to be fuchsia.

[Dr Positivity]

The Bosh overhaul makes these stats irrelevant. What it tells us is Bosh and Bargnani were a **** fit. +/- is a team stat, not an individual one... our team was worse with Bargnani on than Rasho, JO, or Amir. That does not mean Bargnani is a -4 player in a vacuum or that he'll be a negative player this year. Playing PF on a team desperately needing a go to guy, I expect his numbers look a lot better this year

[KrazyP]

Yes, Bargs himself not a defensive jauggernaut. In Toronto, he's been asked to be one. This is the real problem at hand. The Raptors were probably the worse possible team for Bargs to be drafted by. Let's take a look at how he would fit on the other teams with top 5 picks in 2007:

Bulls - Bargs would probably be considered a borderline all-star on this team. Offensively, he would bring a lot of what that team currently lacks whereas his defense would be less of a problem playing in a front court with solid defenders like Deng-Noah.

Hawks - Horford-Bargs-Smith would give other teams fits with their offensive versatility. Not an ideal defensive line-up but much better than what the Raps had last year. Horford/Smith is much better defensively than Bosh/Turk...Bargs could go out there and just do his thing.

Bobcats - Another team where Bargs offense would look great and his defense would be a total non-issue because of the solid defensive players around him (last yr = Chandler-Felton-Jackson-Wallace). i.e. the Bobcats got away with playing a fat and out-of-shape Diaw in the front court last year and they were still one of the best defensive teams in the league.

Blazers - I'd be willing the bet the Blazers could replace Aldridge with Bargs in their starting line-up and that team wouldnt skip a beat. Heck, Oden stays healthy, Bargs perimeter game would be a nice compliment to him long term.

[FluLikeSymptoms]

I have no idea as to why even the few stat-worshippers are attracted to basketball... It's just not for you. Have you seen the baseball? Because I think that you'd like baseball. For the most part, you don't even need to see it happen.

[andreafan]

I'll disagree and I'll provide an example in hockey. Ryan Suter & Shea Weber on Nashville are considered one of the top tandems in hockey. Yet Suter's +/- was +4, Weber's was 0. These kind of stats can be used as an indication only not as a definitive results.

Heh, +/- in hockey has long been considered a wholly useless stat, because with no player playing anywhere near half a game, matchups are everything...Suter/Weber play the bulk of the game against the opposing team's best players, who are brought on in a relatively consistent three-man group whose primary purpose is to generate goals.

In basketball, that's rarely the case; a guy like Bargnani plays over three-quarters of his team's minutes, and while starters play more against other starters, they only half or less of their minutes against a full starting lineup. And Bargs has previously come off the bench, where he'd face a higher percentage of reserves, and his defensive splits were still awful.

And yes, they aren't definitive. But when you combine his +/- with other statistical measures like the Synergy stats, the team's performance and with observation, and the consistently low level demonstrated by all of the preceding, it takes an incredible amount of belief in the guy to come to any conclusion save for that he's a truly awful defensive player. And we keep having this discussion over and over because a number of people keep looking at the sky and declaring it to be fuchsia.

fuchcia, is that chinese code for something?

[Too Late Crew]

24 PPG? He currently scores 17.7 per 36. How many minutes per game is he going to get? To get to 24 ppg at his current rate would require him to play 49 mpg. Unless the raps are going to let him play every minute plus go to overtime at least 13 times its not very likely now is it.
So maybe he goes up to 38 mpg (still too high IMO due to his size and conditioning but possible) So at his current rate he'd score 18.7.
Well what about him "getting better" well even with the extra 2mpg to get to 24 ppg he'd still need to increase his scoring by 30% ..30%! Name me a player who has shown a 30% increase in scoring per minute at age 24 and beyond? (Other than some injury related thing) Durrant made a huge jump from 23.3 to 27.5 per 36 that's STILL on 17%.

Mike James jumped from 11.8 ppg in 2004-05 to 20.3 ppg in 2005-06 with the Raptors. But to do that, he had free reign to shoot. He went from 10 FGA to 15.5 and almost tripled his FTA from 1.5 to 4.5.

If Bargnani has free reign to shoot, and he takes - and makes - a lot of 3s, there's a chance he gets there.

But this thread is not about offence.

Mike James jumped from 26 mpg to 37 mpg. Its not even remotley comparable. That's a critical element that so ofent gets totally ignored when discussing Bargs. He already plays 35 mog. Those increaded minutes are responsible for a large proportion of any statistical "improvement" people point to. His MPG can only increase fractionally more.

[Too Late Crew]

AB FTA /36 increased both in number and in % during the last 3 season.
I don't see why this trend will not continue

This will put his PPG up to 20

The same things its happening on Rebound, and keeping the improvement will result in more than 7 RPG. If I have to bet I will say 7.5.

BPG will not go higher than 2, no matter what.
So, a 20+7.5+2 will make me happy.

And the one that can easily increase more than that its RBG as CB4 have left...

Your sttments are falt out WRONG.

Bargs FTA per 36 went DOWN from 3.9 to 3.0
His rebounds went from 6.1 to 6.3 per 36. That's a 3 % improvment. keeping his current rate of improvment would boost him to 6.5 rpg NOT 7. Why would anyone predict 7.5 if they are basing their predictions on past improvement?

[Dr Positivity]

Honestly, there's two ways this can go

- Bargnani ends up our 18ppg+ guy this year, puts up a positive impact across the board, everyone likes him

- Bargnani really is one of the most negative impact stat stuffers in the league, we win less than 23 games every year until we get a legitimate young centerpiece. Bargnani ends up the Kevin Martin to a Tyreke Evans, the Redd to a Bogut, the Zbo to a Brandon Roy, the Ellis to a Steph Curry. Faux one side only 'best player', bridging the gap between franchise player eras.

Either way this team will stink until someone emerges as the new VC/Bosh.

[Ripp]

These stats are totally meaningless. Its like a good d-man in hockey with a -10 rating on an average team.

Hrm, I don't know much about hockey, but isn't it usually a low scoring game? It would be stupid to look at on/off, +/- sort of stats in say a game like soccer...there is too much statistical variance and not enough data to wash it away.

The wonderful thing about basketball is that there is a GINORMOUS amount of data, since each game is usually 90+ possessions. Think about it, that is roughly 7400 possession per season for a team. That is a crapload of data...you can learn a lot from it if you try.

[KrazyP]

These stats are totally meaningless. Its like a good d-man in hockey with a -10 rating on an average team.

Hrm, I don't know much about hockey, but isn't it usually a low scoring game? It would be stupid to look at on/off, +/- sort of stats in say a game like soccer...there is too much statistical variance and not enough data to wash it away.

The wonderful thing about basketball is that there is a GINORMOUS amount of data, since each game is usually 90+ possessions. Think about it, that is roughly 7400 possession per season for a team. That is a crapload of data...you can learn a lot from it if you try.

Yes but stats are open to interpretation. Calderon's PER and Defensive Rating the last 2 years has been the same as Derrick Rose's. Whoop-dee doo.

Derrick Rose - 17.3 PER / 111 DRTG
Jose Calderon - 17.6 PER / 113 DRTG
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

Stats can be twisted and protrayed in many different ways. Posters with agendas and too much time on their hands have too much influence on this board.

[Ripp]

In other words, you need to actually UNDERSTAND what the stat you are using means, when you use it in an argument? Yes, generally in life if you don't understand what you are talking about, you'll get in trouble (for example, ZefSyde earlier in this thread complaining about how pace inflates ORTG or DRTG.)

However, if you DO understand how to interpret stats (in particular, understanding how they are calculated and thus what they capture and do not) such as PER and Drtg, then feel free to use them.