What will Mcgee and Wall average next season

[no D in Hibachi]

i think mcgee will get minutes regardless of defensive effort. armstrong is just insurance fodder. unless seraphin lives up to his 6'10 listing, he won't be getting many minutes either. as much as i want Yi to succeed, he's just better playing against cones than players.

at the MINIMUM, playing thabeet-level defense, javale will be logging 24 mpg.

Oh I completely agree with this. McGee will get 25-30 minutes per night, probably closer to 30 MPG. There is absolutely no one behind him, no depth at all. Either Javale gets it this year, or they are in for a long season. Based simply on the fact that he gets burn I think he puts up decent stats: 14/8. 85% of all his points will come on put backs and spoon fed dunks.

[closg00]

i think mcgee will get minutes regardless of defensive effort. armstrong is just insurance fodder. unless seraphin lives up to his 6'10 listing, he won't be getting many minutes either. as much as i want Yi to succeed, he's just better playing against cones than players.

at the MINIMUM, playing thabeet-level defense, javale will be logging 24 mpg.

Oh I completely agree with this. McGee will get 25-30 minutes per night, probably closer to 30 MPG. There is absolutely no one behind him, no depth at all. Either Javale gets it this year, or they are in for a long season. Based simply on the fact that he gets burn I think he puts up decent stats: 14/8. 85% of all his points will come on put backs and spoon fed dunks.

I wouldn't bet on McGee getting up to 30 min a night with Armstrong, Yi, & Seraphin (possibly Hamady?) available. Flip doesn't have the patience to deal with the kind of mistakes that McGee is going to make to play him 30 min a game.

[dobrojim]

McGee will score and rebound if he is given the minutes. He will get minutes if he plays defense. So McGee's averages next year will depend on his willingness to play defense.

I was out riding the bike today
(century ride, def easier than running 100 miles)

and I was thinking that if things go well for the 'zards, then one
reason will probably be that Wall and Gil are drawing fouls
and getting the other team (hopefully big men) in foul trouble.

The iffy part of this scenario is that it will require getting
a reasonably fair shake from the zebras. We'll see.

but if JM has an advantage in fouls and can stay out of trouble
himself, that will, along with playing solid defense (these 2 things
go together), then he can produce.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

With the passing of Blatche and Arenas, Wall may get fewer assists (maybe even under 6 per) but it might produce an exciting dynamic, keeping defenses guessing about passes and strikes and allowing Wall's athleticism to produce for him a higher scoring average, penetrating for easy, assisted scores: Wall 17 ppg/6apg, Arenas 22 ppg/5apg, Blatche 18 ppg/3 apg. McGee could be anywhere from 8-15 ppg, depending on his overall effectiveness versus his alternative (Seraphim, Armstrong).

Rose's TO rate went down when he got to the pros, and was under 3 per game. So was Deron Williams. I guess it depends on how Wall's game translates to the NBA, but I'm not assuming a 2/1 ATR or more than 3 TOs a game.

monte that's pretty much how I see it. McGee might not play that much due to Seraphin and Armstrong defending better. Flip doesn't really like McGee that much to begin with IMO based on how little Javale played this past season.

I think McGee's a good candidate to be demanding a trade by mid season. He'll average around 9 points 5 rebounds for the Wizards, but will be a much better player elsewhere is my guess.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

McGee is in no way a guaranty to get any more than 16-20 minutes a game.

Ridiculous. Exactly who on the roster is going to take minutes away from McGee? EG for better or worse has forced the coaching staff into playing McGee heavy minutes next season because there are no viable alternatives.

If its not McGee, its either going to be Yi, Armstrong, Seraphin or Booker getting minutes. Even if you got Blatche at C, you still need someone to play PF. I know McGee's defense is dreadful but I fail to see a better option. Armstrong may provide nominally better defense but he's a complete stiff. Seraphin & Booker are raw rookies. If Yi plays like he has thus far in his NBA career & this summer he's not going to steal minutes from anyone.

McGee gets 24-28 minutes a night at bare minimum. If he's not a total waste defensively he might more than 30 on many nights.

That's what he should get, perhaps.

I remember Flip starting Oberto and Javale getting many DNP-CDs. Flip will play Armstrong or Seraphin ahead of Javale if all is near equal. That's just Flip.

[hands11]

McGee is in no way a guaranty to get any more than 16-20 minutes a game.

Ridiculous. Exactly who on the roster is going to take minutes away from McGee? EG for better or worse has forced the coaching staff into playing McGee heavy minutes next season because there are no viable alternatives.

If its not McGee, its either going to be Yi, Armstrong, Seraphin or Booker getting minutes. Even if you got Blatche at C, you still need someone to play PF. I know McGee's defense is dreadful but I fail to see a better option. Armstrong may provide nominally better defense but he's a complete stiff. Seraphin & Booker are raw rookies. If Yi plays like he has thus far in his NBA career & this summer he's not going to steal minutes from anyone.

McGee gets 24-28 minutes a night at bare minimum. If he's not a total waste defensively he might more than 30 on many nights.

Ridiculous. ? I hardly think what I wrote in total was Ridiculous. But that's your thing over reacting like that.

THE BIG IF

I laid out a scenario and in that scenario, I said " McGee is in no way a [u]guarantied to get any more than 16-20 minutes a game." It was a valid scenario and analysis. Sorry if you don't feel that way but it doesn't make it any less valid. I'm not saying I know it will play out like that. Just posting a scenario that could easily happen (if) Dray is at defensive center.

I have no idea what will happen anymore that anyone else. We haven't even seen the total team together yet or know who will be ready to start the year. They could start McGee at center and give him 30-35 minutes a game. I could even see that happening for a spell. Maybe he catches fire and he is all we can talk about next year. Who knows ?

My guess from what I have seen from him even recently is that he is going to makes some strides this year but he still hasn't gotten past his Nick Youngness. With only a mouth more to go until camp, I doubt is going to make up enough ground in defensive BB IQ and maturity that he is all the sudden going to look good doing it. As such, chances are better than not that he is another year or two away and Flip will give him his chances but not at the expense of the team. He will give others chances also. Flip is likely to continue to do what he did last year which is yank him like he yanks Nick when he does something(s) clueless. And every time that happens, someone is going to get a chance to show something. If they do, Flip may give them more of a chance to show more.

IF Dray is playing defensive center, than like I said, McGee has a lot more competition if Dray is playing D center and PF offense because we have more players who could fill the D PF who on offense will be asked to set picks ( not a McGee strength), rebound, box out ( not a McGee strength) and get some put backs. Hard to see how you don't agree with that.

I just don't believe the kid is being given a long rope and being guarantied minutes yet. He isn't Dray or Gil or even Wall. He is going to need to earn anything more that 15 mpg. Maybe he will. Maybe he won't. We will have to see.

[hands11]

^
It's a balancing analysis on keeping/trading McGee. If his defense fails to progress but it's apparent that he's trying and willing to listen and just experiencing growing pains, then I hope they continue to allow him to develop. If he fails to progress because he's a knucklehead that just wants to block shots and alley-oop, then trading him might be an imperative move, regardless of his physical specimen. I wouldn't want to have to pay too much to resign him, if by the second contract, the team's still essentially paying for the same "potential" that was there all along, still waiting for some "actual." At that point, a higher scoring average might make him more attractive to other teams willing to pay $7-10 million.

Sure. But since he added 7 pounds of muscle this offseason, I would expect him to put in another summer of weight lifting again next year. Actually, I hope he continues putting in good summers from here on out.

But how many more years do you give someone with McGees size and athleticism ? He is only 22 and only played 2 years. I would give him min of 4 years. But personally, I don't think it is an issue. I think he will continue to improve. What I don't know is when he will get over the bubble. Hell, I'm not even sure he and the coaches are on the same page with kind of game he will develop. Personally, I still think McGee wants to became a Dray like player at PF more than a center.

As a SG, I would have expected more BB IQ improvement from Nick. Nick is coming into his 4th year. If he doesn't break out this year, he will likely always be a bench player. But as a project C/PF who is 7-1 and athletic in a freakish way for that height, I think you have to give McGee 4-5 years. He would only be 24-25 and could give you five or more very productive years after that. And even if he never becomes a starter, he could be a vary valuable back up C/PF for many years.

The kid still has a chance to become something truly special. But it's up to him to put in the work and study over time on what he needs to do.

[willbcocks]

I do not see Mcgee demanding a trade. He doesn't seem like that kind of dude. He seems far too content in his own world.

ETA: If you see a quote saying, "Mcgee demands Mcgee be traded," you can bet the farm Javale isn't the Mcgee making the demands.

[doclinkin]

Ordinarily Flip tends to play a slowdown game, with few possessions since his teams work until late in the clock looking for that open jumper. This year however the players have been told to work their stamina in the offseason because the team plan is to RUN. Speed does seem to be our primary advantage at every spot, 1-5.

I expect scoring numbers to be relatively high. For the Wiz and opponents. The team will hope to wear down the opposition late game by running them early. Even our Bigs are fairly deep in uptempo-capable players. High possession numbers will also help to satisfy players like Gil, Howard, even Dray who have all been high-usage guys. They'll need to be able to share the ball, not dribble it until late in the clock -- a habit that each of them has been drubbed for in the past.

One way or the other though it's not up to them since the ball is expected to be in the hands of John Wall most of the time. According to Flip. It will be the rookie's job to keep everyone happy. A tricky formula, a lot to ask of a young player, if he is as HOF talented as everyone hopes, well he'll be able to manage it. He has played on a squad with at least 3 other NBA talents in the line-up.

Personally I think the team will be stronger if Flip loosens the reins a little and allows a slightly more multi-pronged dynamic attack, Gil and Josh Howard both score best when able to attack early in the shot clock. Both can be creative and tough to handle when they're not in a walk-it-up system. But neither is best solely as a spot=up shooter. It's a hopeful sign that Flip has said to all: be ready to run. Whomever gets the ball: go. BY preference lob it to John, but if he's guarded tight then go get it.

I sincerely doubt McGee asks for a trade at any point since nobody in the league will make him look as good as John Wall will. JaVale always remembers in postgame to compliment whichever point guard has been lobbing him alley oops. He loves to get out and run, has good chemistry with Johnny Ballgame. And if he can race out in transition and get easy buckets he won't have to thud and bruise against the real dump-truck strong forwards and centers. Elsewhere he'd be asked to play that more traditional role. JV doesn't show the competitive fire to dominate or battle for minutes and a starring role, he wants to look good without a ton of pain. JDiggy does that for him. McGee ain't going nowhere.

That said, the per-game totals are not strictly additive properties. Those numbers will shift as we add back in players (hopefully only adding). I don't expect either of Dray or Josh to be ready early, certainly not in game shape. Nor am I disappointed or pressed by that fact. I don't trust the early optimistic timetables given by Dray or Josh's agent. Dray is a Big with pins in his foot. Odds generally are against quick recovery.

That means Gil and JWall are the primary conduit for points early on. McGee and Al Thornton following. Yi joins them if he can get comfortable at Dray's role in the mid-post. If he plays well, and/or if Thornton has good chemistry with Wall, then the coaching staff may be slower to bring back injured and recuperating players. Splitting minutes etc while they are knocking rust off and regaining stamina.

Stamina is a watchword for McGee as well. If his asthma is under control he'll be better able to stay on court, and will post a lower foul rate as well, not weakly slapping at balls when gassed.

But you can't just take last year's numbers and bump them. Gil in particular will be asked to adjust to a new role. Dray won't be funneled possessions like he was late last year. Josh won't be the number two featured scorer as he was in his best years, though he has played with both scoring and passing PGs in both uptempo (Nellieball) and slow pace (Avery Johnson) squads. (First glance suggests he plays better when he can get out and go. Dunno, need to look back at that. Everybody scores better when they can get off an early shot against fewer defenders).

There are chemistry questions that are tough to sketch out ahead of time, when key players may not be available or back up to speed.

[Dat2U]

Just throwing out some numbers for fun. My best guess:

Arenas - (36 min) 24 pts 4 rebs 5 asts PER 21.0 (75 games)
Wall - (36 min) 16 pts 3 rebs 8 asts 2 stls PER 17.0
Blatche - (34 min) 15 pts 8 rebs 3 asts PER 18.0 (65 games)
Howard - (28 min) 12 pts 4 rebs 2 asts PER 13.0 (50 games)
McGee - (26 min) 12 pts 7 rebs 2 blks PER 18.0
Hinrich - (24 min) 10 pts 2 rebs 3 asts PER 12.0
Thornton - (20 min) 8 pts 3 rebs 1 ast PER 12.0
Yi - (20 min) 7 pts 3 rebs 1 ast PER 11.0
Young - (15 min) 6 pts 1 reb 1 ast PER 11.0
Booker - (12 min) 4 pts 2 rebs 1 ast PER 13.0
Seraphin - (12 min) 3 pts 4 rebs 1 blk PER 12.0
Armstrong - (10 min) 2 pts 2 rebs 1 blk PER 8.0

[Dat2U]

IF Dray is playing defensive center, than like I said, McGee has a lot more competition if Dray is playing D center and PF offense because we have more players who could fill the D PF who on offense will be asked to set picks ( not a McGee strength), rebound, box out ( not a McGee strength) and get some put backs. Hard to see how you don't agree with that.

I just don't believe the kid is being given a long rope and being guarantied minutes yet. He isn't Dray or Gil or even Wall. He is going to need to earn anything more that 15 mpg. Maybe he will. Maybe he won't. We will have to see.

Yeah, we'll see. I don't see Yi or Armstrong being viable alternatives upfront. For all of McGee's flaws, he's a much better player than those two. And Serpahin or Booker are probably a few years away from making an impact.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Just throwing out some numbers for fun. My best guess:

Arenas - (36 min) 24 pts 4 rebs 5 asts PER 21.0 (75 games)
Wall - (36 min) 16 pts 3 rebs 8 asts 2 stls PER 17.0
Blatche - (34 min) 15 pts 8 rebs 3 asts PER 18.0 (65 games)
Howard - (28 min) 12 pts 4 rebs 2 asts PER 13.0 (50 games)
McGee - (26 min) 12 pts 7 rebs 2 blks PER 18.0
Hinrich - (24 min) 10 pts 2 rebs 3 asts PER 12.0
Thornton - (20 min) 8 pts 3 rebs 1 ast PER 12.0
Yi - (20 min) 7 pts 3 rebs 1 ast PER 11.0
Young - (15 min) 6 pts 1 reb 1 ast PER 11.0
Booker - (12 min) 4 pts 2 rebs 1 ast PER 13.0
Seraphin - (12 min) 3 pts 4 rebs 1 blk PER 12.0
Armstrong - (10 min) 2 pts 2 rebs 1 blk PER 8.0

Those PER predictions and good guard numbers, Dat, would predict a 50-win team IMO.

Josh Howard averages a PER of 17.5. Although he was at 12.0 for Dallas, in the four games he was a Wizard Howard's PER was 19.2 (according to basketball-reference.com)

I think Seraphin's going to be way better than that, Dat. He's going to challenge for minutes and probably be playing 20 mpg by the end of the season IMO.

Unfortunately, I do not think Flip Saunders is a good enough coach to keep 12 players happy with their minutes. He'll play 8 or 9 guys and will surely not play some guys at all. I don't see that many players averaging over 10 minutes. Flip doesn't role that way.

[Ruzious]

^
I like the idea of McGee taking such an insane jump in scoring; even if his defense fails to progress, it will make him that much more attractive in trades. Given the alternatives at center, he might get enough minutes to make a big leap, but yes, 15 ppg would be pretty astonishing.

+1 his value will sky rocket if his ppg goes above 12. i think gms around the league are already taking a long look at this guy and marveling at his potential.

I doubt it. Yi averaged 12 PPG last season, and he was available for free. I think everyone knows McGee can score. What he's got to show is he can play a mature NBA game.

[nate33]

I don't expect either of Dray or Josh to be ready early, certainly not in game shape. Nor am I disappointed or pressed by that fact. I don't trust the early optimistic timetables given by Dray or Josh's agent. Dray is a Big with pins in his foot. Odds generally are against quick recovery.

There is a lot of fan pessimism surrounding Blatche's injury. Blatche himself said he'd be ready by the start of training camp - not the start of the season, the start of training camp. That means he will be healthy a full month before the start of the regular season. Also, a foot injury isn't like a knee injury. There isn't the same level of trepidation when trying to go 100% again.

I think Blatche will be okay. He might not be quite as sharp due to a lack of offseason work on his game, but he'll be 100% ready physically.

I agree that Josh Howard was probably overly optimistic in his recovery timetable (I believe in the beginning of July he said he'd be back in 4 months, which makes him healthy on the first day of the season). Howard was a free agent at the time and surely he was trying not to tank his value.

[doclinkin]

There is a lot of fan pessimism surrounding Blatche's injury. Blatche himself said he'd be ready by the start of training camp - not the start of the season, the start of training camp. That means he will be healthy a full month before the start of the regular season. Also, a foot injury isn't like a knee injury. There isn't the same level of trepidation when trying to go 100% again.

I think Blatche will be okay. He might not be quite as sharp due to a lack of offseason work on his game, but he'll be 100% ready physically.

I agree that Josh Howard was probably overly optimistic in his recovery timetable (I believe in the beginning of July he said he'd be back in 4 months, which makes him healthy on the first day of the season). Howard was a free agent at the time and surely he was trying not to tank his value.

Oh, well we're fine then. If Doctor Blatche says he'll be a-ok, then great!

I'm by no means pessimistic on this, it just makes sense to me to temper expectations and not try to rush it. Foot injuries on Bigs can become nagging career-long issues if you aren't cautious. If I heard Blatche had a stress fracture in his foot, and that was all, I'd be comfortable with an early estimate. But when they say they had to pin it, that tends to be the old 5th metatarsal deally which can be a nagging bitch -- especially if you are overeager and don't give it time to heal. You're looking at your change of direction, 'plant and push' support. And the best way to heal it (so it never becomes a problem again) is to let it take time. Very gradually increase exercise.

I suspect Blatche wants to jump right in and pick up where he left off. I'd say pull back on the reins, even if he gets frustrated. Ilgauskas' early career was derailed by glass feet. Rik Smits' was ended (though this may have been plantar faciitis, I forget). Makes sense to me to take it easy and keep expectations in check.

[closg00]

i think mcgee will get minutes regardless of defensive effort. armstrong is just insurance fodder. unless seraphin lives up to his 6'10 listing, he won't be getting many minutes either. as much as i want Yi to succeed, he's just better playing against cones than players.

at the MINIMUM, playing thabeet-level defense, javale will be logging 24 mpg.

Oh I completely agree with this. McGee will get 25-30 minutes per night, probably closer to 30 MPG. There is absolutely no one behind him, no depth at all. Either Javale gets it this year, or they are in for a long season. Based simply on the fact that he gets burn I think he puts up decent stats: 14/8. 85% of all his points will come on put backs and spoon fed dunks.

We need to set-up a friendly little wager between the McGee will play 25+ minutes camp and those who think McGee will play 25 minutes and under on most nights. Better yet how about a poll?

[Hoopalotta]

I'm expecting something right in that 25 minute range, so I don't know which side I'd wager my denarii on. I don't expect that the highest potential meridian would be much over top of 28 minutes when you account for nights when things are right pear shaped, what with the yellow cards, lapses and matchups.

I'd have to take "neither, but also both" on that over-under and just go with 25 minutes on the nose.

[pancakes3]

hoops is the type of guy that goes to the roulette and bets on the 00.

[Hoopalotta]

I actually just talk the talk. Last ante I met was probably in Reese's Pieces with my little Cousins in 1998.

[hands11]

Well then set it up.

26 or more
25
24 or less.

Now this only counts if Dray is healthy. If there is no Dray, McGee would likely play until he fouls out.

But if Dray is healthy, I would pick 24 or less.