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SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years

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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#401 » by Local_NG_Idiot » Mon Aug 23, 2010 6:11 pm

Too Late Crew wrote:I have to question the theory that the best defensive teams always have good defensive big men.

I agree that is often the case but there are more than enough exmaples where its not to poke holes in the Theory. The Bobcats were the best defensive team in the NBA and they had Chandler (who is actually a sub par shot blocker) play on 1100 minutes splitting with Mohammed and Boris diaw play as an undersized PF for nearly 3000 minutes. Their defense was heavlily based on athletic defenders at the 3 Wallace , 2 SJAX and 1 Felton.


Wallace was 1st team all defense this past season and played a 3rd of his minutes at the 4. Chandler is a very good defender (defense is not shot blocking), plus Charlotte picked up TT and Ratliff in the second half of the season. Brown and Co. put a lot of value in Felton's defense at the point as well since they let him walk for nothing on a reasonable contract. Did they have above average perimeter defenders? Yup, but their bigs were also above average defenders hence them being one of the best defensive teams in the league last season.

The Thuinder were 9th with Jeff Green as an undersized PF and Kristic as their center. Not exactly an intimidating dig man tandem. once again their defense was primarly built around the 1, 2 3 positons.

I certainly can agree that a C/PF who is a great defender, shot blocker rebounder as an anchor is the ideal building block and can cover up perimter players


OKC is propbably the exception to the rule because of their youth and depth.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#402 » by Kayjay » Mon Aug 23, 2010 6:15 pm

Ibaka is a fine defender whose contribution to the OKC defense can't be ignored.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#403 » by Local_NG_Idiot » Mon Aug 23, 2010 6:24 pm

Indeed wrote:However, it is not as simple as a defensive C can shut down or resolve all the perimeter problem.


That's your statement, not mine. Nowhere did I say a defensive C would solve all of the defensive problems this team has had in the past.

Your PF and off wings need to rotate properly in order for this to work. I mean, you put a super defensive C, but no one plays defense, it won't make you a defensive team.

Meanwhile, if you look at the next paragraph from Boris, he explains that the speed and quickness was the problem, which I believe is this:
Bargnani - sometimes not quick enough for help defense, sometimes late for rotation
Hedo - most of the time not quick enough to contest 3pts, sometimes late for rotation
Jose - most of the time not quick enough to contest 3pts nor stay in front of his man, sometimes late for rotation


So apply that to other teams and see what the results are. Orlando - Rashad, Turk, Vince, Jason Williams, Redick are all slow footed guys who would lose the speed and quickness race 7 times out of 10 games, yet their team was still anchored with good defensive bigs and their guards played disciplined rotational defense. Heck, look at the Celts, outside of Rondo it's a bunch of old men who lost the speed game 7 games out of 10 as well. SAS, DEN, LAL all have older wings and guards who are usually outclassed physically on a nightly basis, yet they are also the better defensive teams in the league.

Based on watching, Jose has the problem of both being late of getting out to cover someone or his own man. So replacing Jose makes much more sense to me for resolving more than 2 problems here.


Like Boris also said, Jose has played more of a backup role over the past 4 seasons and is where he is most effective in his role. So how can a backup PG have more of an overall defensive impact than a starting Center?
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#404 » by OvertimeNO » Mon Aug 23, 2010 6:27 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
You're oversimplifying defense a lot. It isn't just double or not double, it's mostly read and react. You can't just focus exclusively on your man, and there are times when showing double and not doubling once the offense sees it coming are far better than just ignoring the other guys on the floor or doubling after the opposing player realizes it's coming and allowing him an easy pass to your man for an open jumper. They aren't hanging out in no man's land. It's possible to guard your own mane and react when a guy gets by an opposing defender. The NBA today allows zone defenses and disallows handchecking, this really puts an emphasis on the importance of team defense from all positions, especially your bigs, and puts significant limits on a guard's ability to keep his man in front of him. You have to be a co-ordinated team on defense if you hope to have any success in today's NBA. Bargnani has loads of skill; his biggest weakness is his ability to be part of a co-ordinated team, and it hurts especially on defense.


I concede I oversimplified how defence works, but that was because I was trying to contextualize your assertion that somehow, the entire team's defence suffered because they were all worried about Bargnani being unable to cover his man. I really don't know how you can quantify something like that without telepathy.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#405 » by MrBojangelz71 » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:36 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:That isn't my 'theory' at all. My 'theory' is that nobody in the NBA can stop their man regularly in a one-on-one setting unless their man is horrible defensively (Ben Wallace, etc.). Guys in the NBA are just too good offensively that to be able to stop anybody consistently without handchecking requires a system of teamwork where everybody is doing more than just paying attention to their own man. This means that perimeter players are always on the lookout for angles that might cause bigs trouble and cutting them off before they present themselves, or paying attention to double-team opportunities and reacting quickly on kickouts. It also means bigs need to do more than just defend their man after they've already established post position and received the ball, which is pretty much the only thing Bargnani does even remotely close to well defensively.

Watch some of the best defensive teams out there - the Celtics and Spurs are my favourite examples. All 5 players on the floor for those teams are required to be constantly reacting to how the play unfolds and changing their responsibilities on the floor accordingly. Simple man defense doens't work in the NBA. Even with man defense, you need a contingency plan when a person's man beats him - which happens quite often without handchecking, as already mentioned- and to operate without one is just stupid, because every other team does.


I think you need to read Boris's posts in this thread and pay attention to what he is implying, as I am completely on board.

The pillar of any good defensive team is their ability to put effective pressure on the opposing team from the point of attack. The best teams that you point out, Celtics and Spurs, are known for their effective man defense. The Celtics during their title run were manning up teams so effectively that they could lock into each and every offensive player on the floor without having to counter react to a breakdown in man defense with a planned team defensive strategy. The Spurs are also one of the most effective teams at man defense. Any analyst will tell you that if you want to go far in the playoffs you have to be able to man up on D and allow minimal defensive coverage from a team perspective. T

Team defense is a semi effective means when a break down occurs on your man defense. The less you have to rely on it the better your chances are of making and effective stop. When the Lakers locked down the Celts in game 5, their man defense was so effective that they had to rely on help defense a hand full of times during that entire game. That primarily came from the point of attack, limited Rondo from doing his thing.

Simple Man Defense doesn't work at the NBA level? Seriously? When you have 5 players on the court that can effectively contain their man, you win championships. Not sure how you can make a statement such as that. You seem to think that all a good wing player should do defensively is force their player to an angle then wait for the center to provide help. With that mindset its easy to see why Andrea is failing miserably with his help D.

It's like stating a pitcher in baseball is throwing hanging curve balls all night long but the balls being smacked are mostly hard grounders. Instead of saying your pitcher is pitching poorly, you state that the fielders should be hit with errors for not getting to the grounders in time. Hey, they are ground balls.



I_Like_Dirt wrote:Disagree all you want, but the bottom line is that those perimeter players that get beat don't get beat or blown-by nearly so regularly when Bargnani is on the bench. Why? Because they've suddenly got more space in the paint to operate when Bargnani is on the floor because he isn't paying attention to the paint as much NBA bigs are required to.


Please back such a statement up with facts. Not sure what you are basing this on other than your own opinion. You make some pretty adamant statements that hardly resonate with me.


I_Like_Dirt wrote:My point also wasn't that Andrea relies on help defense less than his teammates. The point is that Andrea is allowed to succeed because his teammates play better help defense behind/around him than he plays behind/around them. His man is much more limited in how he can attack the basket because the other players are all positioned properly and preventing certain ways Bargnani can be attacked offensively. Bargnani doesn't provide that same level of support he receives, which is sade for two reasons, first because bigs are generally supposed to provide more help, not less, that's the biggest advantage of being big in basketball, and secondly because the Raptors aren't exactly a great team when it comes to help defense, so being massively worse than what is generally a sub-par team at help defense is downright embarassing.


So with our horrid defensive record you are implying that it all falls on Andrea. Once again, read Boris's posts and enlighten yourself.

You deny that wasn't your point then state exactly that it was. You aren't making sense.

There is a big difference to offering the type of help defense that you imply AB gets on every possession his man has the ball to that of the help defense that AB has to, or as you imply doesn't ever offer, when wings of opposing teams have the ball. Tell me, what is easier to assist with:
A big down low, back to the basket, trying dribble into a position for a basket. His back is to the basket, his dribbling skills are limited and he can be surround much easier with his back against a Centers chest.
Or
A wing that uses a simple screen to knock his defender off, facing the basket with a live dribble, speed to attack and room to maneuver.

Anyone with basketball savvy will state that the center down low is much easier to double or assist your center with support. The wing will most often draw a foul while attacking, pull up for an open jumper or kick out to a teammate for an open jumper.
Furthermore, how can you be state that our wings provide this amazing help defense for Andrea on his assignment? Did you watch any of the games last season? When an opposing team beat our center or PF, it was usually a basket and one.

If you think for one second that Howard, Perkins or Duncan are forced to clean up bad man defense on a regular bases I think you really need to watch more of their games. Are they better at it than AB, of course, are they put into situations were they are continually being expected to come to the aid of blown assignments? Not even close.

Not saying AB is a good or even average defender, but to totally dismiss the situations that are caused by our poor wing and guard defense and how it exploits his below average defense is very ignorant. As Boris has pointed out so eloquently, the picture is much much bigger than some on here like to paint it. Many are so quick to take whatever stat supports their cause and run with it, while dismissing other factual stats that counter oppose it.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#406 » by Ripp » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:59 pm

Boris: Did you manage to take a look at the three posts I made on page 25? There are some pretty big questions about the methodology you are using (the BoP stuff) here. If you could read those posts and address some of the concerns I raised, I would really appreciate it.

Like, the biggest one to me is that the Dean Oliver Drtg for Player X is very different from what actual basketballvalue.com style Drtg (which as you might know, just calculates the total number of points given up when player X is on the floor, and divides by the number of possessions.)

So in other words, there is a gap between Oliver's Drtg and reality. Anyway, that is just one of various concerns I had, so it would be great if you could address them.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#407 » by dagger » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:04 pm

Ripp wrote:Boris: Did you manage to take a look at the three posts I made on page 25? There are some pretty big questions about the methodology you are using (the BoP stuff) here. If you could read those posts and address some of the concerns I raised, I would really appreciate it.

Like, the biggest one to me is that the Dean Oliver Drtg for Player X is very different from what actual basketballvalue.com style Drtg (which as you might know, just calculates the total number of points given up when player X is on the floor, and divides by the number of possessions.)

So in other words, there is a gap between Oliver's Drtg and reality. Anyway, that is just one of various concerns I had, so it would be great if you could address them.


I think he said he was busy this afternoon in the kitchen. Cooking the numbers? :lol:
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#408 » by supersub15 » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:01 pm

BorisDK1 wrote:
supersub15 wrote:Boris, I'm heading out for lunch, so I'll answer you this afternoon. In the meantime, let me know if you think that Jarret Jack is a better defender than Jose. If your PDSS stat says so, I'm going to run team DRTG for Jack/Bargnani and Jack/No Bargnani for you...

Yes, I do. Jarrett was less effective as a starter than as a backup (stop% ~.540 off the bench, ~.480 as a starter), but certainly far better than Jose's .372 stop%.

Enjoy your lunch! I'm going to be busy in the kitchen this afternoon (I work weekends), making a new barbeque sauce.


Alright.

Jack and Bargnani played together 1630.67 minutes. The team DRTG was 114.76
Jack played without Bargnani for 612.75 minutes. The team DRTG was 110.96

Again. The team performed about 4 pts worse with Bargnani than without Bargnani. We can go down the list of players, and the result will always be the same.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#409 » by Ripp » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:19 pm

dagger wrote:I think he said he was busy this afternoon in the kitchen. Cooking the numbers? :lol:


I know you say that jokingly a bit, but I think at the time Dean Oliver's work was written, it wasn't so easy to parse through play-by-play data and actually compute things directly. In one of those links I posted, Oliver explains his motivation for coming up with the formula he does. A lot of his stuff is motivated by analogies with baseball and some of the techniques they used there.

But I think these days, with sites like basketballvalue.com or whatever which can actually tell you exactly how well the lineups of your favorite team did, how many minutes they played, what lineups they played against say the Spurs and Nuggets, there is less reason to use formulas like Oliver's Drtg.

Like, fundamentally it seems that this formula of Oliver's was invented to estimate things we can calculate exactly now. This is something that I'm not sure Boris is realizing...he is poo-poohing On/Off sort of stats, +/- sort of stats when his method is essentially a way to APPROXIMATE these values we can now get directly.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#410 » by J-Roc » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:25 pm

I can't be bothered to read all these posts, but is the crux of Boris's argument that the defensive woes of the Raps were no Bargnani's fault, but someone else? Or is he saying Bargnani is a good or passable C defensively?

To me, it's obvious there's no intimidation under the rim. Not from Bargs or from anyone in previous years. With the Raps, I always feel like the other team should drive at them all the time. We're lucky when they pull up for a shot. Stops in the paint are so rare.

For Bargs to be passable (if that's possible), he needs to be paired up with an intimidating presence under the rim. Not someone who will beat you up. But someone who is a threat to block your shot, or more importantly, take a charge.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#411 » by dagger » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:33 pm

Ripp wrote:Like, fundamentally it seems that this formula of Oliver's was invented to estimate things we can calculate exactly now.

That's where you're wrong because there is a lot on a basketball course that can't be calculated "exactly" because as the song goes

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to the knee bone,
and the knee bone connected
to the thigh bone,
and the thigh bone connected
to the hip bone.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#412 » by strangespot » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:38 pm

supersub15 wrote:
BorisDK1 wrote:
supersub15 wrote:Boris, I'm heading out for lunch, so I'll answer you this afternoon. In the meantime, let me know if you think that Jarret Jack is a better defender than Jose. If your PDSS stat says so, I'm going to run team DRTG for Jack/Bargnani and Jack/No Bargnani for you...

Yes, I do. Jarrett was less effective as a starter than as a backup (stop% ~.540 off the bench, ~.480 as a starter), but certainly far better than Jose's .372 stop%.

Enjoy your lunch! I'm going to be busy in the kitchen this afternoon (I work weekends), making a new barbeque sauce.


Alright.

Jack and Bargnani played together 1630.67 minutes. The team DRTG was 114.76
Jack played without Bargnani for 612.75 minutes. The team DRTG was 110.96

Again. The team performed about 4 pts worse with Bargnani than without Bargnani. We can go down the list of players, and the result will always be the same.



just out of curiosity, I guess the minutes above include minutes in which Calderon was on the floor as well ? If yes, I'd like to know the DRTG of Jack and Bargs together but w/o Calderon if possible ?

maybe there were not too many minutes overall but if I recall correctly, Triano used to play the 2 pg unit a lot in 4th quarters... and also the defense wasnt necesseraly looking too good...
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#413 » by Tony_Montana » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:58 pm

MrBojangelz71 wrote:Simple Man Defense doesn't work at the NBA level? Seriously? When you have 5 players on the court that can effectively contain their man, you win championships. Not sure how you can make a statement such as that. You seem to think that all a good wing player should do defensively is force their player to an angle then wait for the center to provide help. With that mindset its easy to see why Andrea is failing miserably with his help D.


This is sooooo wrong. This is a star based league and almost every team in the NBA's offense revolves around PnR's or isos for great offensive players. Either way, no team in the NBA can guard effectively just playing man defense. The best you can do is funnel players to where they're not a threat and force ball movement to the worst situation for the offense.

Watch good defenses. The whole objective is to force the worst possible shot for the offense and RARELY is that a 1-on-1 matchup. RARELY.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#414 » by evenflow » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:19 pm

supersub15 wrote:
BorisDK1 wrote:
supersub15 wrote:Boris, I'm heading out for lunch, so I'll answer you this afternoon. In the meantime, let me know if you think that Jarret Jack is a better defender than Jose. If your PDSS stat says so, I'm going to run team DRTG for Jack/Bargnani and Jack/No Bargnani for you...

Yes, I do. Jarrett was less effective as a starter than as a backup (stop% ~.540 off the bench, ~.480 as a starter), but certainly far better than Jose's .372 stop%.

Enjoy your lunch! I'm going to be busy in the kitchen this afternoon (I work weekends), making a new barbeque sauce.


Alright.

Jack and Bargnani played together 1630.67 minutes. The team DRTG was 114.76
Jack played without Bargnani for 612.75 minutes. The team DRTG was 110.96

Again. The team performed about 4 pts worse with Bargnani than without Bargnani. We can go down the list of players, and the result will always be the same.


In no way am I speaking for BorisD but from my limited knowledge of basketball it would seem you have not taken into account the level of competition. That is huge variable that has to be accounted for. Common sense would tell us when Andrea and Jack played together, that time was spent defending the best players on the opposition. We can equally surmise that the time when they did not play together was when Jack was coming off the bench since for the most part Andrea was playing against the opponents starters.

In the example you are offering, to reach the conclusion you want to reach, one has to assume that there is no difference in the quality of competition. Which means you are saying all NBA players who played against the Raptor's were of equal value, the oppositions starters were no better than their bench players, an assumption that is very unrealistic.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#415 » by Tony_Montana » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:29 pm

evenflow wrote:
In no way am I speaking for BorisD but from my limited knowledge of basketball it would seem you have not taken into account the level of competition. That is huge variable that has to be accounted for. Common sense would tell us when Andrea and Jack played together, that time was spent defending the best players on the opposition. We can equally surmise that the time when they did not play together was when Jack was coming off the bench since for the most part Andrea was playing against the opponents starters.

In the example you are offering, to reach the conclusion you want to reach, one has to assume that there is no difference in the quality of competition. Which means you are saying all NBA players who played against the Raptor's were of equal value, the oppositions starters were no better than their bench players, an assumption that is very unrealistic.


Yeah, but if you have a large enough sample size it doesn't really matter. 600 minutes, for example, is a lot of basketball.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#416 » by timdunkit » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:36 pm

supersub15 wrote:
BorisDK1 wrote:
supersub15 wrote:Boris, I'm heading out for lunch, so I'll answer you this afternoon. In the meantime, let me know if you think that Jarret Jack is a better defender than Jose. If your PDSS stat says so, I'm going to run team DRTG for Jack/Bargnani and Jack/No Bargnani for you...

Yes, I do. Jarrett was less effective as a starter than as a backup (stop% ~.540 off the bench, ~.480 as a starter), but certainly far better than Jose's .372 stop%.

Enjoy your lunch! I'm going to be busy in the kitchen this afternoon (I work weekends), making a new barbeque sauce.


Alright.

Jack and Bargnani played together 1630.67 minutes. The team DRTG was 114.76
Jack played without Bargnani for 612.75 minutes. The team DRTG was 110.96

Again. The team performed about 4 pts worse with Bargnani than without Bargnani. We can go down the list of players, and the result will always be the same.


Heres my problem with a stat like this ... you can look at it as a 4 pt improvement? But a 4 point improvement to what? 110.96 DRTG still puts you 5th worst in the league and 0.8 pts away from being worst.

So basically, they played terrible defense without Bargnani but Jack but played even more terrible defense with Bargnani/Jack. There is a point of being terrible where statistical analysis should be considered flawed. To me if your DRTG is over 110, you SUCK defensively big time no matter whether your 111, 112, 113.

Thats my problem with presenting a comparative stat like that ... Its so easy to read it as a 4 point improvement, where in reality Its going from really really really sucky to really suck ... though in the end you still suck!
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#417 » by Local_NG_Idiot » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:53 pm

timdunkit wrote:Heres my problem with a stat like this ... you can look at it as a 4 pt improvement? But a 4 point improvement to what? 110.96 DRTG still puts you 5th worst in the league and 0.8 pts away from being worst.

So basically, they played terrible defense without Bargnani but Jack but played even more terrible defense with Bargnani/Jack. There is a point of being terrible where statistical analysis should be considered flawed. To me if your DRTG is over 110, you SUCK defensively big time no matter whether your 111, 112, 113.

Thats my problem with presenting a comparative stat like that ... Its so easy to read it as a 4 point improvement, where in reality Its going from really really really sucky to really suck ... though in the end you still suck!


So defensive sucktitude has a finite ultra-suckiness?
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#418 » by evenflow » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:19 pm

Tony_Montana wrote:
evenflow wrote:
In no way am I speaking for BorisD but from my limited knowledge of basketball it would seem you have not taken into account the level of competition. That is huge variable that has to be accounted for. Common sense would tell us when Andrea and Jack played together, that time was spent defending the best players on the opposition. We can equally surmise that the time when they did not play together was when Jack was coming off the bench since for the most part Andrea was playing against the opponents starters.

In the example you are offering, to reach the conclusion you want to reach, one has to assume that there is no difference in the quality of competition. Which means you are saying all NBA players who played against the Raptor's were of equal value, the oppositions starters were no better than their bench players, an assumption that is very unrealistic.


Yeah, but if you have a large enough sample size it doesn't really matter. 600 minutes, for example, is a lot of basketball.



If there is one thing I have learned since the decision to make the long forum census voluntary rather than mandatory is that larger sample sizes do not necessarily mean accurate data. Also that variables have a huge importance on reliable data. If you do not account for known variables than it doesn't matter how big of a sample size you have, the data will still be unreliable. Now I could very well be wrong about how stats work and the rules that have to be used to make data usable so please correct me if i'm wrong but right now it seems to make sense.

The 600 minutes look like they would match up well against the time Jack spent coming off the bench and playing against the oppositions 2nd units (that's just a guess though).
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#419 » by BorisDK1 » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:37 pm

dagger wrote:To both you and Boris: What was Bosh's defence statistically AFTER the all-star break?

From Feb 17 - end of season:

MP DReb Stl Blk FM FGA FTO FFT FFTM Stop% DPoss% DRat
641 116 10 14 99.5 108 12 38 17 .497 .194 114.2

To sum, he was pretty weak defensively.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years 

Post#420 » by BorisDK1 » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:42 pm

bthrawn wrote:Thanks for this file the amount and depth of this data is insane. The points allowed data is you watching every play and assigning the points? Looking at the points allowed per game is misleading as not everyone played the same # of minutes in each game. Points allowed per minute for example switches the ranking of Amir and Bargs in terms of points allowed while Jose remains brutal.

Yeah, the points allowed data is going to be used to perform Dean Oliver's Net Points calculations next year. My one regret this year is I didn't distinguish for threes allowed, just field goals (no matter what their value). Having gone through Basketball on Paper again, I think I'd have an easier time to do those with 3FGA, which I will do next year.

One of the things you have to be careful with, especially with Amir, is that he faced a lot more possessions than anybody else. He was extremely active defensively, in part due to the fouls he picked up trying to help out on uncontrolled drivers, in part just due to his general activity on the floor. So while he does allow more points, he also creates more stops per minute than anybody else. In short, he's very good defensively and just about exactly what you want out of a really top-shelf defensive big man.

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