Michael Bradley wrote:Randle McMurphy wrote:Michael Bradley wrote:As far as Rzepczynski getting unlucky, I don't see it. The three things pitchers can control are home runs, strike outs, and walks, and while his K rate is decent, he is giving up home runs (1.35 HR/9) and walks (4.49 BB/9) at a pretty bad rate. I'm willing to give him a mulligan since he was hurt this year, but by no means are his numbers indicating bad luck to me. His command is spotty and (so far) he is homer prone. Not a good combination.
It's 40 innings. You can't exactly draw much of a conclusion from that, especially after what he did last season.
I'm not drawing any conclusions out of it. Just responding to him being unlucky this year, which based on the numbers doesn't really add up. He's giving up HR's and walks. That's not luck.
He has a babip of .352 over 40 innings. That's extremly unlucky for a guy that has a career 50.3% groundball rate. Especially considering that his linedrive% has actually dropped to 16.4% this year.
I really don't understand how you can come to the conclusion that he's not been unlucky based on the components of FIP when his FIP itself is 1.2 points less then his ERA.
Also it's 40 innings like MT said. the rate would drop .20if he went 7 innings without giving a hr up..... his hr rate isn't going to stay where it is based on his career #'s.
He can strike guys out, and he can induce ground balls. Those are the components of a pitcher you'de want to keep around imo.