Snider's bat speed

victor page · Post #1 » by **victor page** » Sun Sep 12, 2010 2:23 pm

When a pitcher throws 94 mph plus, Snider isn't even close. He's not even fouling off these pitches, his bat is way too slow.

The Jays approach all year has been to swing from the heels and try to pull everything. They're scoring plenty of runs, so it's hard to argue, but then again they are in 4th place in a 5 team division.

But something strange is happening. Snider is flailing helplessly at good fastballs in the zone. It's not that he's chasing, he just can't catch up to decent heat in the zone. Maybe his bat is too heavy for him?

I get that he's 22 but that shouldn't really matter. I'd understand if he was struggling with breaking stuff, struggling against lefties, struggling with knowing the strike zone, etc.... I've seen generation after generation of young sluggers struggle with things like that until they get their first 1000 ABs in the majors.

But I can't think of another player that ended up being a good hitter struggle with bat speed like Snider is doing. I'm worried that the Jays rushed his development - did he ever rake for a full season in AA or AAA? I'm not an expert on the minor leagues like many of you - wouldn't it have helped him to put up huge numbers in the PCL for a full season?

Learning at the Dwayne Murphy school of hitting, where you swing for the second deck every AB, are we ok if his ceiling is a .250 power hitter with a lot of Ks? Dammit he seemed to hit better than that at age 20.

SargentBargs101 · Post #2 » by **SargentBargs101** » Sun Sep 12, 2010 3:00 pm

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minor ... ider001tra
Maybe his timing is off because off missing a lot of time of that wrist injury but yeah i see what your are saying..... He is having problems hitting them fastballs. If his bat speed is really this bad I have a hard time believing as he gets older it improves.. I think snider's potential is a 280BA 35HR'S 110rbi's with about 130k's.... Maybe he should use a lighter bat

Post #3 » by **tsherkin** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:28 pm

This is something I've been grumbling about for a while. Then, every so often, he starts catching up to them and we're reminded why he's good. Maybe it's something as simple as starting his motion a little earlier? I wonder. With Cito gone next year, is Murphy likely to still be here? It'd be interesting to see what happens with a more contact-focused hitting coach. I don't think Snider's lacking in the ability to GENERATE bat speed, he looks often like he's just not starting soon enough.

victor page · Post #4 » by **victor page** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 6:12 pm

You would think hitting a straight mid 90s fastball would be easy for a guy like Snider (maybe not hitting it, but I mean at least catching up to it). I don't see how even a bad hitting coach could screw up your ability to hit straight heat.

I never see major league hitters change their bats anymore - it seems like they use the same bat against Joba Chamberlain that they would against Paul Byrd. The problem with a lot of Jays hitters like Buck, Hill and Snider, in particular, is that they don't shorten their swing. So they can't catch the heater, and they fall out of their shoes on breaking pitches. Joey Bats has an unbelievable ability to lay off these pitches, but the others are easy outs against power pitchers.

Hendrix · Post #5 » by **Hendrix** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 6:31 pm

I didn't really pay attention too much before. But has this been a problem mostly since he changed to that open stance or has it always been a problem.

Like others said it doesn't seem like a problem with bat speed so much as he's just not getting ready fast enough. Bautista seemed to be able to make a tweak in his swing that has allowed him to be able to get ready for the pitch better this year.

Hummus · Post #6 » by **Hummus** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 3:29 am

Hendrix wrote:I didn't really pay attention too much before. But has this been a problem mostly since he changed to that open stance or has it always been a problem.

Like others said it doesn't seem like a problem with bat speed so much as he's just not getting ready fast enough. Bautista seemed to be able to make a tweak in his swing that has allowed him to be able to get ready for the pitch better this year.

Bautista has always had a freakishly fast bat - it's why the scouts in Pittsburgh loved him so much and were so excited to sign him as undrafted free agent. It's the reason teams have been unable to truly give up on him, and why he has managed to stick in the majors despite poor results before joining the Jays. It is also why a few tweaks in his batting stance and the confidence of playing every day has resulted in such great power numbers.

You can't teach bat speed - if Snider doesn't have good bat speed now, he never will. I definitely agree with you - the issue with Snider is probably not bat speed. I think the evidence backs that up, as he clearly has shown power at the minor leagues (and even in bursts at the major leagues). I think this is an issue of confounding variables - there is something else wrong with his approach, and the way it looks to us less-than-expert eyes is that "he isn't catching up to those fastballs = slow bat". Bat speed may be related to something else going on in his swing that I assume is the major culprit.

Randle McMurphy · Post #7 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:37 am

Snider's bat speed is fine. Really, wrist injuries are a difficult thing for a hitter to deal with. I have full confidence that he will have success next season.

Randle McMurphy · Post #8 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:40 am

victor page wrote:But I can't think of another player that ended up being a good hitter struggle with bat speed like Snider is doing. I'm worried that the Jays rushed his development - did he ever rake for a full season in AA or AAA?

Yes, in 2008 (and in 2009, he destroyed AAA).

Learning at the Dwayne Murphy school of hitting, where you swing for the second deck every AB, are we ok if his ceiling is a .250 power hitter with a lot of Ks? Dammit he seemed to hit better than that at age 20.

Snider is always going to strike out a ton, and no, that shouldn't be concerning (as long as he transitions to being a BB/power guy).

Post #9 » by **tsherkin** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:24 pm

He does seem like a classic "middling/weak contact, good power" type of hitter in how he projects.

I should point out that he has as many total bases this season as he did last year in like 8 more games, mostly because he has 18 doubles in 69 games versus 14 in 77 last year. His average is only 0.005 different from last year, and he's got as many homers in 69 games as he had in 77 last year (9). His baBIP is .289 this year (league average .315). He's homering at a similar rate as he did last year, something like once every 27 at-bats and he isn't grounding out as often.

These are all promising signs, even if his OBP is crap this year because his walk rate went down. He's making better contact, etc, etc, etc. It's a short sample size, so it's tough to really evaluate because he didn't even get half a season and then he got injured and basically has spent the rest of the time platooning instead of getting regular starts.

But the signs, for what they're worth, are actually encouraging. His walk ratio is below-average this year, but two years ago, it was not, it was considerably above average and over 10%, which is good. So let's wait and see what he does post-Cito. There are some signs that he'll be solid, and some issues creeping up. Let's see what he does when he actually gets PT.