http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft08/ ... aymock0401 (McShay)
While Miami taking QB Matt Ryan with the No. 1 pick cannot be ruled out completely, it does seem to be more of a long shot than a probability at this point. So, after months of sticking with Ryan at No. 1, I finally have shuffled the top of my mock draft.
In addition, a couple of weeks spent on the road visiting with NFL coaches and scouts at various pro days has provided some interesting perspectives on a few potential first-round curveballs. While trades are not included in these mock drafts, I do expect several to take place. The Patriots could kick things off at No. 7, where they are hoping a top talent like Ryan or DT Sedrick Ellis falls in order to generate greater interest.
Also, while I still have Ryan as the only quarterback in the first round, there's speculation that one or more teams might trade back into the bottom of the round to secure their favorite from the next-best trio of Chad Henne, Brian Brohm and Joe Flacco. Of the three, Henne seems to be moving up the draft boards the fastest. The more time coaches spend with the four-year starer from Michigan, the more they fall in love with his confidence and overall intangibles.
Keeping those things in mind, here's my best stab at how Round 1 will unfold followed by a brief projection for Round 2:
1. Miami Dolphins -- Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Record: 1-15 | Needs: CB, OT, WR, QB, G
Previous mock selection: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
While I have DE Chris Long graded slightly higher, Jake Long makes the most sense here. I'm still a firm believer that Jake Long will be an upper-echelon starting left tackle in the NFL. With the addition of G Justin Smiley and current Miami OT Vernon Carey back at his natural position on the right side, the Dolphins would finally solidify their offensive line and give QB John Beck and RB Ronnie Brown far greater chances for success.
2. St. Louis Rams -- Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Record: 3-13 | Needs: DE, WR, C, G, OLB, OT
Previous mock selection: Same
There's a lot of buzz regarding Jake Long going to the Rams at No. 2, but that's assuming Chris Long is the Dolphins' choice with the top selection. In this scenario, the Rams would have a tough choice between Chris Long and DT Glenn Dorsey. Both players are worthy of the pick, but Long is a safer one for an organization that has fared far better drafting college defensive ends than it has tackles. Long is not a prototypical edge rusher, but he's a disruptive force with rare versatility and a motor that never quits.
3. Atlanta Falcons -- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Record: 4-12 | Needs: QB, DT, OT, G, TE
Previous mock selection: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Ryan should be the Falcons' selection, and there's speculation that owner Arthur Blank agrees, for obvious reasons. Ryan is a franchise quarterback prospect with rare intangibles, which is something the Falcons desperately need. However, newly hired GM Tom Dimitroff brings with him the Patriots' mind set of building a foundation along the offensive and defensive lines via the draft, so if Ryan and Dorsey both are available, it won't be an easy choice.
4. Oakland Raiders -- Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Record: 4-12 | Needs: DE, OL, DT, WR, SLB
Previous mock selection: Sedrick Ellis, DE, USC
While their financial sense and player evaluations certainly can be questioned, the Raiders have in fact addressed many needs during the offseason, which frees them to go in any number of directions with this pick. Word has it that owner Al Davis is infatuated with McFadden's home run speed. Shocking, right? Regardless of his reasoning, it's hard to argue against taking the draft's most talented prospect with the fourth overall pick. Getting McFadden signed and into camp, on the other hand, could be an interesting process.
5. Kansas City Chiefs -- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Record: 4-12 | Needs: OT, CB, G, WR, QB, RB
Previous mock selection: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Jake Long has to be priority No. 1 for the Chiefs, but don't expect them to reach for a different offensive tackle with this pick if he is off the board. Dorsey is the type of impact defensive tackle the franchise has been missing for years. If Kansas City goes with Dorsey here, it can select an offensive tackle the caliber of USC's Sam Baker early in Round 2.
6. New York Jets -- Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
Record: 4-12 | Needs: DE, CB, WR, FS, ILB, RB
Projected pick: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Arguments can be made for and against Gholston. After studying him on film, I think he is a bit of an overrated player who disappears from games far too often. However, recent workout times have sent his draft stock soaring, and I hear from reliable sources that the organization is infatuated with him.
7. N.E. Patriots (from 5-11 S.F.) -- Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Record: 16-0 | Needs: ILB, CB, OLB, ROT, G, S
Previous mock selection: Vernon Gholston, OLB/DE, Ohio State
I am convinced the Patriots will trade out of this spot. For starters, coach Bill Belichick and GM Scott Pioli have made 25 draft-weekend trades since taking over eight years ago. Secondly, the team is in desperate need of secondary help, but there isn't a defensive back in this class worth selecting in the top 10. McKelvin is the most likely fit at corner, but only if the team moves down at least a few spots. And New England has been known to take value over need in the past, so DT Sedrick Ellis is a possibility here, too.
8. Baltimore Ravens -- Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
Record: 5-11 | Needs: QB, CB, LOT, OLB, DE, ILB
Previous mock selection: Same
The Ravens are one of the wild-card teams in the top 10. They, too, are a team that likes to take the best available talent even if he doesn't fit a need, so if DT Sedrick Ellis falls this far, he is a definite possibility. I have Clady graded higher than any corner in this class, though, and he possesses the combo of size and feet to potentially take over for perennial Pro Bowler Jonathan Ogden.
9. Cincinnati Bengals -- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Record: 7-9 | Needs: DT, LB, TE, C, S, DE
Previous mock selection: Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
The team is starving for a playmaking defensive tackle, and Ellis, who notched 58 tackles and 8.5 sacks as a senior, is one of only two elite prospects at the position. While it's highly unlikely he will fall to the ninth pick, I do hear the Bengals and Saints are among a handful of teams considering trading up for Ellis and/or DT Glenn Dorsey, depending on how the top of the board unfolds.
10. New Orleans Saints -- Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
Record: 6-9 | Needs: CB, DT, ROT, S, TE, LB, WR
Previous mock selection: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St.
If the Saints don't trade up for a defensive tackle (Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey), they are likely to bypass their need at cornerback to select the draft's top linebacker prospect, Rivers.
11. Buffalo Bills -- Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
Record: 7-9 | Needs: WR, TE, CB, DE, FS, OT, OG
Previous mock selection: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
This might be a bit of a reach for Kelly, but I am hearing the Bills will take him this high as long as he checks out physically during his on-campus workout April 9. Kelly is the type of big receiver the Bills need to add to their roster as a complement to Lee Evans. He is unusually fluid for a bigger wideout, and he might have the strongest hands of any player in the 2008 draft. However, if the team is not convinced of Kelly's long-term durability, it likely will use this selection on a cornerback, such as Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
12. Denver Broncos -- Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Record: 7-9 | Needs: DT, OT, WR, MLB, OL, CB/RS
Previous mock selection: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
The Broncos ranked 28th in points allowed and 30th versus the run last year, which explains the free-agent additions of SLB Boss Bailey, S Marquand Manuel and S Marlon McCree. Finding an upgrade at defensive tackle is the next priority. Unfortunately for Denver, Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis are off the board, and it's too early to take the next best option, Kentwan Balmer. At least the team can use the pick to solidify its offensive line with Otah. Then it can target a DT like Auburn's Pat Sims in Round 2.
13. Carolina Panthers -- Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Record: 7-9 | Needs: ROT, FS, TE, RB, DE
Previous mock selection: Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Solidifying the offensive line with OT Chris Williams is a possibility. However, Harvey is flying up teams' draft boards following a superb on-campus workout, and the Panthers need a young insurance policy at the position. Carolina signed free agent Tyler Brayton, but Julius Peppers, who is entering the final year of his contract, is coming off his worst season as a pro, and aging veteran Mike Rucker is contemplating retirement.
14. Chicago Bears -- Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Record: 7-9 | Needs: OT, QB, RB, WR, G
Previous mock selection: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
The Bears have to consider Mendenhall, who would provide a level of toughness their ground game lacked with Cedric Benson as the primary ball carrier in 2007. However, upgrading the offensive line is an even greater priority. If they can land Williams, one of the top tackles, with pick No. 14, the Bears can shift their focus to finding a good running back value in the later rounds. Oregon's Jonathan Stewart and Tulane's Matt Forte are examples of the type of talent the team will find in the second and third rounds, respectively.
15. Detroit Lions -- Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Record: 7-9 | Needs: RB, DE, OT, LB, DT
Projected pick: Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
With Harvey and the top four offensive tackles off the board, it will be far easier for the Lions to pull the trigger on the draft's second-rated running back. The Lions want to become more physical on the offensives side of the ball, and Mendenhall has the ideal blend of size, power and burst to help achieve that initiative -- certainly more so than current RBs Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun.
16. Arizona Cardinals -- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee St.
Record: 8-8 | Needs: CB, FS, RB, LOT, WR, DB
Previous mock selection: Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
The team wants to land a complement to current starting RB Edgerrin James early in this year's draft. However, turf-toe surgery has knocked Jonathan Stewart to at least the bottom of this round, and it's too early to reach for Felix Jones. The good news is that the 2008 running back crop is deep, so the smart play is to grab one of the premier defensive backs before that well dries up. Rodgers-Cromartie has been one of the fastest rising prospects during the postseason, and the Cardinals will be thrilled if he's available at pick No. 18. The small-school product stood up to the big boys at the Senior Bowl and then wowed scouts a few weeks later with one of the smoothest workouts of any DB at the combine.
17. Minnesota Vikings -- Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Record: 8-8 | Needs: DE, QB, OT, CB, WR
Previous mock selection: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
The team has bigger needs, but don't expect it to reach for a slipping player like Merling. While I can't speak for the Vikings and their board, Jenkins is the best player available in my opinion, and his services certainly can be put to use in their defensive secondary. Jenkins possesses the speed and athleticism to frequently hold up on an island in coverage. He could immediately add depth as a nickel corner behind Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin before eventually pushing for a starting job a year or two down the line.
18. Houston Texans -- Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
Record: 8-8 | Needs: CB, LOT, RB, DE, S, G, C
Previous mock selection: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Houston has spent its past five first-round picks on the defensive side of the ball, and the team easily could make it six in a row by drafting a cornerback like Talib. While his feet and decision-making skills still need polishing, he is a versatile playmaker with outstanding size and speed for the position.
19. Philadelphia Eagles -- Branden Albert, G, Virginia
Record: 8-8 | Needs: WR, S, LB, OT, G, DE
Previous mock selection: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
The Eagles have steered clear of first-round receivers since the Freddie "Millions" Mitchell fiasco, and there isn't one worth drafting here if Kelly is off the board. Coach Andy Reid is known for drafting linemen in the first round, and his tackles are aging. Albert is massive, with good feet and a finisher's mentality, and while most of his experience is at guard, he has the frame to try out tackle in the NFL, should the Eagles so choose. That will depend in part, though, on where Shawn Andrews lands.
20. T.B. Buccaneers -- Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
Record: 9-7 | Needs: WR, LOT, QB, CB, DT, RS
Previous mock selection: DeSean Jackson, WR, California
Coach John Gruden is looking for another pass-catching weapon in his version of the West Coast offense, and Thomas' run-after-catch skills make him an ideal match. Thomas also can help upgrade the Bucs' spotty return game.
21. Washington Redskins -- Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
Record: 9-7 | Needs: WR, S, DE, OT, CB, G, C
Previous mock selection: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
The Redskins' top priority is to add a big, playmaking receiver. But with Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas off the board, expect them to address that need later in the draft. In the meantime, they could either take a chance on Merling, who is dropping due to a recently discovered sports hernia, or fill the void at safety by taking the only potential first-rounder this class has to offer, Kenny Phillips. When healthy, Merling has an outstanding combination of size, quickness and power, which would make him a good fit in a rotation with veteran Phillip Daniels at left end.
22. Dallas Cowboys (from 10-6 CLE) -- DeSean Jackson, WR, California
Record: 13-3 | Needs: WR, CB, RB, G, C, QB, NT
Previous mock selection: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Sure, Jackson has limitations at 5-foot-10 and 169 pounds. But he's the fastest and most dangerous open-field weapon this class has to offer. In addition to his big-play potential in the return game, Jackson could become a nice complementary weapon for QB Tony Romo opposite Terrell Owens.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers -- Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Record: 10-6 | Needs: DE, OT, WR, G, FS
Previous mock selection: Branden Albert, G, Virginia
The Steelers are expected to invest multiple draft picks in offensive linemen. Cherilus is a right tackle prospect who struggled a bit on the left side as a senior, which is something the Steelers have to consider. Regardless, he has good feet for his size, and he's experienced enough to start at one of the tackle spots as a rookie.
24. Tennessee Titans -- Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
Record: 10-6 | Needs: WR, DE, DT, CB, OLB
Previous mock selection: Same
QB Vince Young still needs lots of polishing as a passer. In all fairness, though, he needs at least one perimeter pass-catching weapon -- and no, Justin McCareins does not count. The last time Tennessee drafted a receiver in the first two rounds, however, was in 2003 (Tyrone Calico, Round 2), and the team hasn't spent a first-round selection on a wideout since Kevin Dyson in 1998. That's why the top available defensive lineman is the best bet.
25. Seattle Seahawks -- Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
Record: 10-6 | Needs: TE, DT, WR, OL, RB
Previous mock selection: Same
Keller and USC's Fred Davis are neck and neck atop the tight end board. Davis is a bigger, more complete prospect with very good overall athleticism, but Keller takes it to another level in terms of overall explosiveness. Keller will never be a good in-line blocker, but very few H-backs display his potential to create mismatches in the passing game. Seattle is looking for a playmaker at that position, so don't be surprised if Keller sneaks off the board late in Round 1.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
Record: 11-5 | Needs: DE, DT, SS, OT, CB, WR
Previous mock selection: Same
The Jaguars hope they addressed their wide receiver issues in free agency with the additions of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson, which leaves the defensive line as the top draft priority. Campbell still is very raw, but his combination of size and athletic ability will be tough to pass on late in the first round.
27. San Diego Chargers -- Dan Connor, ILB, Penn State
Record: 11-5 | Needs: ROT, S, RB, NT, CB
Previous mock selection: Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Offensive tackle is the Chargers' biggest need, but there isn't one of value available in this scenario. San Diego is one of the few teams with the luxury to draft the best available athlete, and since there isn't a good tackle value still on the board, Connor becomes a very attractive option. He can fit well at one of the inside linebacker spots in the Chargers' 3-4 scheme and should eventually become an upgrade over current starter Stephen Cooper, who led the team in tackles in 2007 but has physical limitations.
28. Dallas Cowboys -- Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Record: 13-3 | Needs: WR, CB, RB, G, C, QB, NT
Previous mock selection: Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
It doesn't sound like owner Jerry Jones will pursue a deal to move up for Darren McFadden, which is wise. However, he could settle for Arkansas' other first-round running back prospect, Jones, whose breakaway speed (along with his versatility as a receiver and return specialist) makes him a good complement to Marion Barber, a more physical runner.
29. San Francisco 49ers (from 13-3 IND) -- Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
Record: 5-11 | Needs: ROT, OLB, WR, OL, QB, CB
Previous mock selection: Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Wide receiver is not as much of a need with Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson both on the roster, but there simply isn't a right tackle worth reaching for at this point. The team recently cut veteran WR Darrell Jackson, and it still needs weapons to help stretch the field. Sweed could emerge as a steal late in the first round if his wrist fully heals as expected.
30. Green Bay Packers -- Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Record: 13-3 | Needs: CB, S, OT, TE, QB
Previous mock selection: Kenny Phillips, S. Miami
The Packers' biggest need is at cornerback, which is why they would choose Flowers over Phillips. Flowers is a much better corner than his 40 time indicates, and he should emerge as a solid starter in a couple of years. He's savvy and tough enough to contribute right away as a sub-package DB.
31. New England Patriots -- Pick forfeited
Record: 16-0 | Needs: ILB, CB, OLB, OL depth
Previous mock selection: Same
The Patriots lost this pick as part of the penalty handed down for illegally taping Jets coaches from the sideline in Week 1.
32. New York Giants -- Jerod Mayo, OLB, Tennessee
Record: 10-6 | Needs: S, OLB, CB, WR, G, T, DT
Previous mock selection: Same
The Giants are in need of a legitimate upgrade at linebacker, and Mayo possesses just the type of athleticism and versatility to find a contributing niche within this unit.
Round 2
Team Player Position School
33. Miami Dolphins Chad Henne QB Michigan
34. St. Louis Rams Mario Manningham WR Michigan
35. Atlanta Falcons (From Oakland) Pat Sims DT Auburn
36. Kansas City Chiefs Sam Baker OT USC
37. N.Y. Jets Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
38. Atlanta Falcons Antoine Cason CB Arizona
39. Baltimore Ravens Joe Flacco QB Delaware
40. San Francisco 49ers Anthony Collins OT Kansas
41. New Orleans Saints Kenny Phillips S Miami (Fla.)
42. Buffalo Bills Tracy Porter CB Indiana
43. Denver Broncos James Hardy WR Indiana
44. Carolina Panthers Brian Brohm QB Louisville
45. Chicago Bears Ray Rice RB Rutgers
46. Detroit Lions Cliff Avril DE Purdue
47. Cincinnati Bengals Fred Davis TE USC
48. Minnesota Vikings Lawrence Jackson DE USC
49. Atlanta Falcons (From Houston) Chilo Rachal G USC
50. Philadelphia Eagles Early Doucet WR LSU
51. Arizona Cardinals Jamaal Charles RB Texas
52. Washington Redskins Jordy Nelson WR Kansas State
53. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Justin King CB Penn State
54. Pittsburgh Steelers Marcus Harrison DT Arkansas
55. Tennessee Titans Andre Caldwell WR Florida
56. Seattle Seahawks Trevor Laws DT Notre Dame
57. Green Bay Packers (From Cleveland) Duane Brown OT Virginia Tech
58. Miami Dolphins (From San Diego) Reggie Smith CB Oklahoma
59. Jacksonville Jaguars Patrick Lee CB Auburn
60. Indianapolis Colts Quentin Groves DE Auburn
61. Green Bay Packers John Carlson TE Notre Dame
62. Dallas Cowboys Mike Pollak C Arizona State
63. New England Patriots Curtis Lofton ILB Oklahoma
64. N.Y. Giants Tyrell Johnson S Arkansas State
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft08/c ... mock080401 (Mel Kiper Jr)
For the third time in as many mock drafts, I'm projecting someone new to go No. 1 overall. My initial mock draft had LSU DT Glenn Dorsey going first, then I had Virginia DE Chris Long going No. 1.
Now it's Michigan OT Jake Long's turn to reside atop the draft board.
But whether it's Dorsey, Chris Long or Jake Long, one thing's for certain: Miami executive vice president of football operations Bill Parcells wants to take a lineman with the No. 1 overall pick. Also, the one word you can expect to hear a lot leading up to the draft is sign-ability. All indications are Parcells will draft the player who he can sign and get into camp.
Two other notable changes from my last mock draft deal with the emergence of Virginia offensive lineman Branden Albert and Boston College QB Matt Ryan.
Albert was a guard at Virginia, but he did play two games at left tackle. His individual workouts have been phenomenal and Albert has convinced teams he can play left tackle in the NFL. I have him going No. 5 to the Chiefs, and they aren't going to draft him that high to play guard.
As for Ryan, if Miami, Atlanta and Kansas City all pass on this year's No. 1 quarterback prospect, the Baltimore Ravens would love to see him on the board when it's their turn to pick. One thing to watch on draft day: I'm hearing if the Falcons pass on Ryan, they might try and trade back into the first round (Atlanta owns two second-round picks) in an attempt to get Delaware QB Joe Flacco.
The three new names appearing on my mock draft are: Purdue TE Dustin Keller; USC DE Lawrence Jackson; and Arkansas St. safety Tyrell Johnson. Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly and Miami's Calais Campbell and Kenny Phillips dropped out of the first round.
My final mock draft will appear on the eve of the NFL draft, April 25.
* denotes underclassman
Kiper's First-Round Projection
No. Team Player School
1 Miami Dolphins Jake Long, OT Michigan
2 St. Louis Rams Chris Long, DE Virginia
3 Atlanta Falcons Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU
4 Oakland Raiders *Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas
5 Kansas City Chiefs *Branden Albert, OT/G Virginia
6 New York Jets *Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio St.
7 New England Patriots (from SF) *Aqib Talib, CB Kansas
8 Baltimore Ravens Matt Ryan, QB Boston College
9 Cincinnati Bengals Sedrick Ellis, DT USC
10 New Orleans Saints Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Tennessee St.
11 Buffalo Bills *Derrick Harvey, DE Florida
12 Denver Broncos Keith Rivers, LB USC
13 Carolina Panthers *Ryan Clady, OT Boise St.
14 Chicago Bears Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt
15 Detroit Lions *Rashard Mendenhall, RB Illinois
16 Arizona Cardinals Leodis McKelvin, CB Troy
17 Minnesota Vikings *Phillip Merling, DE Clemson
18 Houston Texans *Jonathan Stewart, RB Oregon
19 Philadelphia Eagles Jeff Otah, OT Pittsburgh
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Jenkins, CB South Florida
21 Washington Redskins *Devin Thomas, WR Michigan St.
22 Dallas Cowboys (from CLE) *Felix Jones, RB Arkansas
23 Pittsburgh Steelers Kentwan Balmer, DT North Carolina
24 Tennessee Titans *DeSean Jackson, WR California
25 Seattle Seahawks Dustin Keller, TE Purdue
26 Jacksonville Jaguars Lawrence Jackson, DE USC
27 San Diego Chargers Gosder Cherilus, OT Boston College
28 Dallas Cowboys *Justin King, CB Penn St.
29 San Francisco 49ers (from IND) *Jerod Mayo, LB Tennessee
30 Green Bay Packers *Brandon Flowers, CB Virginia Tech
31 New England Patriots Forfeited pick
32 New York Giants Tyrell Johnson, S Arkansas St.
