Poll: Grade Ernie Grunfeld

[Dat2U]

Opportunity cost: Adding a legit C like Erick Dampier would have been FAR FAR more useful & helpful than adding draft busts like Yi & Hilton Armstrong.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

All I have is two words on who Ernie will regret passing on: Dominique Jones.

+1

Here's a portion of DX's pre-draft scouting report on Dominique Jones:

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Dom ... z0zn75uOxr

The most impressive aspect of Jones’ resume is his 46.5% scoring ratio, indicating that he scores at least a point on nearly half of his extremely high 21.6 possessions per-game. The level of efficiency ranks first in this group, and his .976 PPP and 11% shots fouled are well above average as well. Jones is both a high usage and high efficiency scorer, which is a rare combination to find.

With nearly 20% of his touches coming in transition, Jones gets to the line better than any of his peers on the break, drawing a trip to the line on 21.6% of those possessions

.

Dominique Jones will start for Dallas. No doubt in my mind he's their SG of the future. He should have been a lottery pick IMO.

[Ruzious]

Dat and CCJ, I agree on Dom Jones. Actually, I think he can play the point if needed - He was certainly much better there than Beaubois (sp?) was in the Summer League. But again - like my criticism of him not taking Pondexter (at a bigger need position) - if he didn't make the trade up, it'd be a moot point - since both Jones and Pondexter went before 30.

[Ruzious]

Opportunity cost: Adding a legit C like Erick Dampier would have been FAR FAR more useful & helpful than adding draft busts like Yi & Hilton Armstrong.

Except that it would show very poor vision to sign Dampier. There's no chance he'd sign here for 1 year, so you eat up the cap room you'd have next year. Houston's a much better fit for him, and he'll probably get 2 years from them, so it'd probably take at least a 3 year deal to get him to consider coming here. The Wiz are in rebuilding mode. Call Yi whatever you want, but committing 1 year to him makes a ton more sense for a rebuilding team like the Wiz than signing Dampier for 3 years.

[closg00]

How can you suggest otherwise? Easy, Ernie potentially will have missed TWO opportunities for finding young prospects to build-with instead of one. The Wizards as a team will HAVE to be better WITH Booker than had they selected: Lazar Hayward & Hassan Whiteside, or Darington Hobson & Derrick Caracter, or Devin Ebanks & Dexter Pittman...take your picks...and that's not-even taking into account players selected 23-30 had we done the trade early. Without hindsight, you can wager now that two players selected after Booker will have made the team better than with Booker alone.

Lastly, the Hamady Ndiaye pick (as low-risk as it was) could be botched if we fail to get him a contract overseas. Undrafted centers picked after Hamady have already been locked-up by overseas teams. With our team in-need of rebounding and a big-body, I would have Zoubek at 56 rather than paying triple for Sean Marks to warm the bench.

Who cares?



You're talking about players who most likely won't have any significant impact in the NBA. Now, if you were to criticise him for not using the Booker pick on Pondexter, then I'd see your point. I got flat out laughed at in the Milwaukee forum for suggesting last midseason that Zoubek should even get a look by NBA teams. I still think he should, but he's never going to be someone you want to play. To criticise a GM for not taking Zoubek is a little bit on the bizarre side.

You are absolutely correct Ruz, most players selected in the 2nd round will make no significant impact in the NBA, so then why use BOTH of your high 2nd-round picks on Booker? Booker himself was projected to be a 2nd round pick in every major pre-draft mock. We stood a greater chance of improving our team had we either:

1. Selected BPA at pick 23 ( Dominique Jones, Quincy Pondexter, Damion James)
2. Used picks 30 & 35, two of those guys will be as-good or better than Booker i'd wager

RE: Zoubek
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Jus ... Crop-3519/
Zoubek was the best offensive rebounding Center in the DX Center rankings and the 6th best defensive rebounder, well above Hamady and he was there at 56. NOT taking a 2nd round non-guaranteed look at Zoubek was bizarre to me, we're looking at paying Sean Marks triple for the same services now.

[Ruzious]

You are absolutely correct Ruz, most players selected in the 2nd round will make no significant impact in the NBA, so then why use BOTH of your high 2nd-round picks on Booker? Booker himself was projected to be a 2nd round pick in every major pre-draft mock. We stood a greater chance of improving our team had we either:

1. Selected BPA at pick 23 ( Dominique Jones, Quincy Pondexter, Damion James)
2. Used picks 30 & 35, two of those guys will be as-good or better than Booker i'd wager

RE: Zoubek
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Jus ... Crop-3519/
Zoubek was the best offensive rebounding Center in the DX Center rankings and the 6th best defensive rebounder, well above Hamady and he was there at 56. NOT taking a 2nd round non-guaranteed look at Zoubek was bizarre to me, we're looking at paying Sean Marks triple for the same services now.

I like how you began that post. I agree about picking either Dom Jones or Pondexter over Booker - like I said. I think trading up was probably smart - just taking Booker isn't what I would have done. But it might turn out that EG was smarter than me - shocking as that might sound.

Have they even signed Marks? I thought he just got a camp invitation. As far as I know, there's no fixed slots for 2nd round picks, so why are you so sure they're spending triple for Marks? Until last season, Zoubek was generally considered a joke of a prospect, and I think you're quite a bit higher on him than most are. I think he's got a chance, but If he makes it, he'll likely be THE most awkward player in the NBA.

[JonathanJoseph]

[
Yi was a low risk, no reward signing. The most important word you said above was "FIBA". FIBA! Not the NBA, but stinkin' FIBA! Why don't we sign Kirk Penney for goodness sakes? He'd be a bargain for a couple mil or so since he averaged nearly 25 pts a game during the tourney. The circumstances in FIBA will totally different for Yi in the NBA. He's not going to be the man. He's not even going to start. Flip is not going to be asking him to lead a bunch or rec-quality players to respectability.

With Yi I prefer to look at his body of work, IN THE NBA!!! And we have all the evidence in the world to show that as an NBA player, he stinks to high hell. Could that change? I suppose the raw talent is there, but there's been absolutely no sign in the three years & 4700+ minutes that he's capable of being a useful player. Averaging 12 & 7 in 32 minutes a night, with an eFG of .417 (at PF! How can a PF be that inefficient?) is nothing to celebrate. Using a FIBA performance to justify throwing away money on a complete bust & lousy player is the absolute definition of the armchair GM'ing that you have consistently railed against.

It takes a huge negative turn of events from where we are today to find a scenario where this Yi deal looks like a bad idea.

Ha, IMO it only takes Yi being the same player he was his first three years in the league for this to be a bad idea.

This is silly. Low risk- no reward? So there is no way that Yi has a breakout season as many in the media claim is a possibility? As in zero chance, not a good chance, or some chance or little chance. No possibility of reward? Zero?

But where this really breaks down is if you assume that Yi is, as you say, nothing more than he's shown previously in the NBA, a 12/7 player last year. Well isn't a backup PF that averages 12/7 a very good value at 1 year/$4M?

Then the move was such a "steal" that it actually costs the Wizards $0 because the cash was either alloted for Quinton Ross, who would never have played, or from the Nets who paid us to take Yi.

Even if Yi is no better than he showed last year, it's still a steal because it's a 7-footer for a year for free. Yes, free, so talking about "throwing around money" is a joke.

You're trying way, way too hard to make Grunfeld look bad and you've stretched beyond the reasonable limit.

[hands11]

JonathanJoseph

Consider who you are arguing with. I mean it can be entertaining if you're into beating your head against the wall but I wouldn't expect an Ahh haa moment to happen. The glass will be half empty or empty until is isn't. And if that happens, for all the pages arguing against your point, you aren't likely to see more than a "opp" once the facts play out differently.

But if the glass does indeed end of being half empty or empty, there will be a thread on it.

[willbcocks]

I tend to armchair GM based mostly on what posters whose opinion I trust say here. But the one thing I have decided to put faith in with EG is his judgment on late draft picks (though not Ndiaye, cuz he sucks mightily--this based on my own eyeballs). So I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt on Booker.

Also, we could have bought another late first, but we didn't--I can't blame or applaud the GM when it comes to cash grabs, as that's the domain of the owner.

I'm just pissed we don't have Henry. He was available (we had the resources to trade up) and possibly still is available, and we need another good prospect, not just an assortment of average ones.

[closg00]

I tend to armchair GM based mostly on what posters whose opinion I trust say here. But the one thing I have decided to put faith in with EG is his judgment on late draft picks (though not Ndiaye, cuz he sucks mightily--this based on my own eyeballs). So I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt on Booker.

Also, we could have bought another late first, but we didn't--I can't blame or applaud the GM when it comes to cash grabs, as that's the domain of the owner.

I'm just pissed we don't have Henry. He was available (we had the resources to trade up) and possibly still is available, and we need another good prospect, not just an assortment of average ones.

Which is it?, you put faith in EG's judgment in late picks.. but his only late pick in this past draft "sucks"?

Re: Booker, I hope he'll be the steal of the draft and Thornton's back-up at SF ahead of Martin (if we sign Martin). We used two picks to get him, so that's what we should expect.

[Wizardspride]

I'm just pissed we don't have Henry. He was available (we had the resources to trade up) and possibly still is available, and we need another good prospect, not just an assortment of average ones.

With all due respect, how do you know we had the resources to trade up to grab Henry?

For all we know, the Wiz tried to move up and failed.

[Hoopalotta]

Also, we could have bought another late first, but we didn't--I can't blame or applaud the GM when it comes to cash grabs, as that's the domain of the owner.

Yeah, I always wonder how the details of these things work out. The main prominent pick that was outright sold for cash this year was the Memphis 25th (?) to Dallas for $3 million (?) which was used to slect Dom Jones. Thing is, there was a gaggle of squads looking to parlay greenbacks into a draft pick in that range according to reports.

So how did Memphis decide to sell to Mark Cuban over someone else? The incentive doesn't seem to have been any higher from what I remember, I believe being just a flat $3 million (and even if there was a future 2nd or what you, that doesn't mean that another team wasn't offering the same). I wonder if it comes down to a "working relationship" type thing whereby Memphis favors Dallas because of passing on helpful rumors or a marginal sort of "we could help each other with minor sorts of issues that comes up down the road" sort of arrangement. I'm just speculating, but I'm pretty sure that's a round about sketch of how it works in these matters. I'm open to other cockamamie theories, though. Even willbcockamamie theories.

[hands11]

Also, we could have bought another late first, but we didn't--I can't blame or applaud the GM when it comes to cash grabs, as that's the domain of the owner.

Yeah, I always wonder how the details of these things work out. The main prominent pick that was outright sold for cash this year was the Memphis 25th (?) to Dallas for $3 million (?) which was used to slect Dom Jones. Thing is, there was a gaggle of squads looking to parlay greenbacks into a draft pick in that range according to reports.

So how did Memphis decide to sell to Mark Cuban over someone else? The incentive doesn't seem to have been any higher from what I remember, I believe being just a flat $3 million (and even if there was a future 2nd or what you, that doesn't mean that another team wasn't offering the same). I wonder if it comes down to a "working relationship" type thing whereby Memphis favors Dallas because of passing on helpful rumors or a marginal sort of "we could help each other with minor sorts of issues that comes up down the road" sort of arrangement. I'm just speculating, but I'm pretty sure that's a round about sketch of how it works in these matters. I'm open to other cockamamie theories, though. Even willbcockamamie theories.

True true.

While ideas about how to get players and pick are posted it is easy to forget this and just view the situation as a lvl situation.

Relationship and politics defiantly matter on the margin. Sometimes even more than the margin.

[montestewart]

^
Do any other NBA owners own NHL teams? Imagine Leonsis sweetening the pot with some consideration that's not even in the same sport.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

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But to compile the above coherently, my current criteria for assessment of the Grunner would be:
1) Did we hose our chemistry/development by bringing on too many scorers? Do actual core players have to sacrifice shots to rentals in a way that hurts development?
2) How do the late draft picks work out? I'm far more hopeful for Seraphin than Booker, though Kevin as a project doesn't need to do much this year for me to still like the pick. I'd be pretty surprised if someone taken later didn't outperform Booker, but I could still live with it if that's a blown pick.
3) Does the second year of Hiney's deal end up hosing us? This could be a problem, though you've got to weigh it against Seraphin.
4) Did we miss out on any opportunities by filling our cap space up this summer? Like I said, I doubt any serious BOYD's get done beyond maybe Vujacic and the 29th pick, so I think we're talking more in the way of grand slams like "Melo and expensive junk" (and I don't even know if we're in that market). We'll see, but I doubt this ends up being much of a problem.

For item #1, IMO passers like Hinrich and Wall make having scorers all the more dangerous. The scorers the Wizards brought in won't dominate the ball from the guys who need to have the ball--Arenas and Blatche. A lot more points this season are coming off of dunks in transition. Wall will get to the line. Gil will get to the line or score it from deep. Guys like McGee and Yi are going to have the best effective field goal percentages of their lives. The only thing that can mess it up is shot jacking or Flip not fostering a good environment. Guys need to be free to take a good shot, no matter who the guy is shooting it. Chemistry COULD suffer if the team loses and Flip is set with a short lineup. Then it could get really bad.

For item #2, Booker really looked like a bad pick in summer league. Seraphin needs to be the real deal. I am pretty sure he is. My thought is he's going to be effective offensively from day one, but his defense and rebounding aren't there. A few blocks in transition doesn't make Kevin a good defender. However, he's got some nifty moves around the basket and he gets up and he's big. Seraphin will play a lot and he'll be a good one.

For item #3, I don't know if both Hinrich and Arenas remain Wizards beyond the end of this season. Can't evaluate that at all, but my gut feeling is the Wizards end up moving Arenas.

For item #4, I am sure this team could have done a bunch of other things on draft day and that some opportunities were missed. That ship has sailed. What matters now, however, is the season at hand. I've learned to appreciate EGs eye for talent. Seraphin will be good. I trust EG there. Booker is a player I loved until his senior year. He's got the heart but does he have the size or can he switch to SF and contribute? Didn't look like it at all in summer league. Right now, he's a bust but it is very, very, very early.

[willbcocks]

Which is it?, you put faith in EG's judgment in late picks.. but his only late pick in this past draft "sucks"?

Re: Booker, I hope he'll be the steal of the draft and Thornton's back-up at SF ahead of Martin (if we sign Martin). We used two picks to get him, so that's what we should expect.

I consider Booker a late pick so I was referring to him. Hell, Seraphin's even a late pick given the flameout rate of bigs not drafted #1 (or drafted #1 by THE #1).

Once I can judge for myself I do of course factor that in. And EG did not sign Ndiaye, allowing him to play overseas, when he's already quite old. Not exactly a beaming endorsement on a team with no defense presence in the middle.

Re: the resources to grab Henry: We had them. OKC moved up to #11 where Henry was available using picks 21 and 26. We had picks 17 and 30 and 35--we easily could have beat that package.

[LyricalRico]

Re: the resources to grab Henry: We had them. OKC moved up to #11 where Henry was available using picks 21 and 26. We had picks 17 and 30 and 35--we easily could have beat that package.

Don't forget that OKC also took on MoPete's contract in that deal for Aldrich.

Also don't forget that using assets to move up from 17 for a swingman probably wasn't in the team's longterm best interests. IMO they were always targeting a big with upside like Seraphin, which I think was the right thing to do.

[Dat2U]

JonathanJoseph

Consider who you are arguing with. I mean it can be entertaining if you're into beating your head against the wall but I wouldn't expect an Ahh haa moment to happen. The glass will be half empty or empty until is isn't. And if that happens, for all the pages arguing against your point, you aren't likely to see more than a "opp" once the facts play out differently.

But if the glass does indeed end of being half empty or empty, there will be a thread on it.

And I'm sure you'll be the one to start that thread, or criticize someone else for starting it.

And you take a half empty glass and shove it where the sun don't shine. Because your wrong. Maybe I argue my points so vehemently that you never noticed or paid attention to how optimistic I've been about the core of Wall, Arenas & Blatche. How often I've suggested they can surprise and make the playoffs. How an athletic frontline of Blatche & McGee will cause match-up problems for a number of teams. How I've predicted at least 40 wins. Maybe I don't like much of rest of the roster or what Ernie has done but no one is more excited or optimistic about the future of John Wall, the Wall/Arenas backcourt or our owner Teddy Leonsis running things.

If your going to jump into an argument and make broad generalizations about my posts, make sure you know what the **** your talking about, otherwise your silence is golden.

[Dat2U]

my bad, double post.

[Dat2U]

This is silly. Low risk- no reward? So there is no way that Yi has a breakout season as many in the media claim is a possibility? As in zero chance, not a good chance, or some chance or little chance. No possibility of reward? Zero?

I don't trust 90% of the media opinions out there. David Aldridge is one. Maybe one or two others, but for the most part the media in general know as much basketball as Michael Wilbon. Using media opinion to validate your point is an incredibly weak argument. Sorta like DCZards pointing out a couple of years back how the likes of Barkley, Wilbon & many others were calling Eddie Jordan a damn good basketball coach and claiming that was evidence that he deserved to remain HC of the Wizards for the forseeable future.

But where this really breaks down is if you assume that Yi is, as you say, nothing more than he's shown previously in the NBA, a 12/7 player last year. Well isn't a backup PF that averages 12/7 a very good value at 1 year/$4M?

Then the move was such a "steal" that it actually costs the Wizards $0 because the cash was either alloted for Quinton Ross, who would never have played, or from the Nets who paid us to take Yi.

Even if Yi is no better than he showed last year, it's still a steal because it's a 7-footer for a year for free. Yes, free, so talking about "throwing around money" is a joke.

You're trying way, way too hard to make Grunfeld look bad and you've stretched beyond the reasonable limit.

$0 cash but it's still $3 million that counts against the cap this year (minus Ross' $1.1 mil owed).

12 & 7 on by far the worst basketball team in the league on horrible efficiency. 12 & 7 in 32 minutes a night. These are not impressive numbers. If you look deeper than the basic stats, his numbers are putrid. What starting PF can't get 7 rebs in 32 minutes a night? What player can't get 12 pts or more if he's supposedly the 3rd option offensively with plenty of scoring opportunities?

I said before, I guess it's not totally impossible that Yi suddenly turns into a respectable NBA player, all I pointed out again & again is that he's shown no evidence thus far in his NBA career that he can become one. Yi has been a bust in his two previous stops because of his play, not because of a lack of opportunity. He's had plenty of chances. If he experiences a turnaround this year it will be nothing short of remarkable considering how consistently bad he's been his first 3 years.