The Memphis Grizzlies are Top 5 in the West at this point

[Mamba Venom]

Cats Griz in the Finals

BOOK IT!!!

[Blackmun]

Rudy Gay doesn't become a superstar player just because you decide to pay him like he was.

[lilojmayo]

Rudy Gay doesn't become a superstar player just because you decide to pay him like he was.

he will try to play to the level of his contract.

In terms of raw basketball talent OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay are as good as it gets from a SG/SF combo. They just need to work as a team and get along on and off the court which they havent done yet in their first two seasons together.

Their first two seasons especially the first one, they were trying to out do each other to show who was the superior basketball player instead of focusing on winning games. Rudy would get mad if OJ had a big game, Mayo wouldn't get as mad, but still wanted to out do Rudy.

Now that Rudy knows Mayo is the more talented basketball player with the higher ceililng and to be honest it really isn't isnt that close. He knows that he needs to lead the 3rd year Mayo, with his NBA experience and guide him on the track to greatness.

There is nothing wrong about being a Robin, ask LeBron James that.




Big time talent

[Blackmun]

Rudy Gay doesn't become a superstar player just because you decide to pay him like he was.

he will try to play to the level of his contract.

Oh right, so up until this point, he just hasn't felt like it?

[Sinant]

he will try to play to the level of his contract.

In terms of raw basketball talent OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay are as good as it gets from a SG/SF combo. They just need to work as a team and get along on and off the court which they have done yet in their first two seasons together.

Their first two seasons especially the first one, they were trying to out do each other to show who was the superior basketball player instead of focusing on winning games. Rudy would get mad if OJ had a big game, Mayo wouldn't get as mad, but still wanted to out do Rudy.

Now that Rudy knows Mayo is the more talented basketball player with the higher ceililng and to be honest it really isn't isnt that close. He knows that he needs to lead the 3rd year Mayo, with his NBA experience and guide him on the track to greatness.

There is nothing wrong about being a Robin, ask LeBron James that.

Big time talent

This may be the single greatest post ever. Every paragraph more sig worthy than the next.

[tsherkin]

Memphis, top 5 in the West. Hmm.

Dallas, LA Lakers, New Orleans, Phoenix, San Antonio, Oklahoma and Denver all come IMMEDIATELY to mind as teams that are likely to be better than Memphis.

Houston and Portland come to mind as teams that could be better, if healthy.

Memphis was a sub-.500 team last year and didn't appreciably improve, AND they're about to marginalize Mike Conley by moving Mayo to PG, which will deflate his trade value and make him a useless asset, which isn't terribly clever. Memphis was some 10 games behind the 8th seed, so they'd have to make a HUGE leap forward just to MAKE the playoffs, let alone be a top 5 team.

Lest we forget, Memphis was an average offensive team (a little better than average, actually) and a below-average defensive squad. It bears mention that they're strength-of-schedule adjusted margin is a loss by more than a full point, which squares with them being a 40-win team.

Consider:

Memphis was below-average in team eFG% and TOV%, but they were the best offensive-rebounding team in the league, so they made up for their comparatively mediocre playmaking and shooting ability (terrible at 3pt and FT shooting) by pounding the second-chance opportunities, and as a result managed to draw a decent number of fouls.

They were terrible at FG defense (25th in the league in opp eFG%), about average at forcing turnovers, below average on the defensive glass and extremely good at not giving up the foul on defense... though they should have done that a lot more.

Now they've gone and added... what? Tony Allen and Xavier Henry?

An extra year isn't going to make any difference, Rudy Gay is still going to be mildly overrated. He isn't any better a playmaker or scorer, he just is what he is. Rudy's been a roughly identical player for three years now, there isn't any sense in projecting a major forward leap. He's cut down on the fouls and turnovers, but is in just about all other respects an identical player to what he was in 07-08, which doesn't project major improvement.

They have a sufficient NUMBER of scorers, but they don't have an elite scorer. Randolph and Mayo are good, definitely above-average scorers efficiency-wise. Gasol is an extremely efficient scorer, though he's not a volume guy. Mayo at the point, IF it works, could do a lot for their playmaking, but even if everything goes right, this isn't a top-5 team out West.

Too many other teams are NOTICEABLY better even if a lot less goes right for them.

This is a mad homer thread to start. Memphis is interesting, but not THAT interesting, barring something really unexpected going well for them.

[ubernathan]

I don't see how you can put the Grizz above the Rockets when the Rockets won two more games last season, AND have added a full season of Kevin Martin, Yao and Brad Miller to last season's team, as well as tossing Ariza the chucker and T-Mac the cancer.

Brooks>Conley Brooks is far and away superior
Martin>Mayo Martin is a good level above Mayo
Battier<Gay Gay is a good scorer, but he's not much of a winner
Scola=Randolph - A small difference, if any
Yao=Gasol - 24 minutes of Yao is better than 34 of Gasol.

Rockets bench>>>>Grizzlies bench - No contest here

[Blackmun]

This may be the single greatest post ever. Every paragraph more sig worthy than the next.

You're funny, thumbs up

[FANOFNBA]

I don't see how you can put the Grizz above the Rockets when the Rockets won two more games last season, AND have added a full season of Kevin Martin, Yao and Brad Miller to last season's team, as well as tossing Ariza the chucker and T-Mac the cancer.

Brooks>Conley Brooks is far and away superior
Martin>Mayo Martin is a good level above Mayo
Battier<Gay Gay is a good scorer, but he's not much of a winner
Scola=Randolph - A small difference, if any
Yao=Gasol - 24 minutes of Yao is better than 34 of Gasol.

Rockets bench>>>>Grizzlies bench - No contest here

a bit harsh on ariza and tmac eh, but what ever

brooks. i agree

martin is not much better then mayo, healthy hes better but its not by that much

battier and gay its close i personally like battier better but you have to consider age

scolas much better then randolph its not even close imo

yao is better but ill take gasol if you spot me 10 extra minutes any day. so im not sure what your talking about.

and by the way im not a rockets fan.

[mid-post]

AND they're about to marginalize Mike Conley by moving Mayo to PG, which will deflate his trade value and make him a useless asset, which isn't terribly clever

OJ isn't going to be displacing Conley at the point any time soon.
Unless OJ gets a whole lot better in playing as the primary ball handler, he won't be playing any more than 5-10 minutes per game at the 1. Considering how thin Memphis is at the guard spot, Conley probably isn't going to lose many (if any) minutes to OJ or anyone else on the roster.
Basically the only way he's losing minutes is if OJ and Henry end up being a dynamite back-court (which would be fine with me).
And the Grizzlies intentionally let Mike play through his struggles to boost his (mediocre) stock anyway, so...

[tsherkin]

OJ isn't going to be displacing Conley at the point any time soon.
Unless OJ gets a whole lot better in playing as the primary ball handler, he won't be playing any more than 5-10 minutes per game at the 1. Considering how thin Memphis is at the guard spot, Conley probably isn't going to lose many (if any) minutes to OJ or anyone else on the roster.
Basically the only way he's losing minutes is if OJ and Henry end up being a dynamite back-court (which would be fine with me).
And the Grizzlies intentionally let Mike play through his struggles to boost his (mediocre) stock anyway, so...

My point was more that running OJ at the point at all will take away from what Conley can do, as largely unimpressive as that has been to date. It's not going to be enough. It's either going to deflate Conley's value or it's going to be insufficient to prop up their otherwise unimpressive offense (as in, the O isn't good enough to make up for the D). When you're offense is largely predicated upon missing shots and rebounding them, you're not going to go far against quality teams, which seems in line with what happened last season.

Memphis is not a particularly compelling team.

[Foye]

They're no better than 7th or 8th seed.

[Wavy Q]

leave it to freakin lilojmayo to bring up this atrocity of a thread.

[Milkdud]

The Grizz have alot of talent on this roster, the problem is their overall lacking of defensive mindset. They are going to give up more points then they score this season again.

[mid-post]

And the Grizzlies intentionally let Mike play through his struggles to boost his (mediocre) stock anyway, so...

I should clarify this idea. Mike had a long leash his first few seasons because they wanted to boost his stock and confidence. But last year he had a long leash because nobody else could play the point.

My point was more that running OJ at the point at all will take away from what Conley can do, as largely unimpressive as that has been to date. It's not going to be enough. It's either going to deflate Conley's value or it's going to be insufficient to prop up their otherwise unimpressive offense (as in, the O isn't good enough to make up for the D).

By now, everyone knows that Conley isn't the most attractive asset. But having OJ at the point (a hypothetical that too many seem to be making a foregone conclusion) will have no effect on Conley or his "value" because OJ will only be playing the point when Mike is on the bench.
Mike will only be on the bench because he isn't playing particularly well or because OJ is playing point guard at a level nobody (save lilOJMayo) is anticipating.
If OJ does in fact get significant minutes at the point, it won't be "just because."

There are two hypothetical scenarios by which OJ would garner significant minutes as a point guard in the coming season:
The first is that OJ is outperforming Mike when it comes to running the offense (which would bode very well for Mayo/the Grizzlies development).
The second is that Mike Conley is significantly worse than he was last year.
In either case, it has nothing to do with the the front-office or the coach messing with Conley's value.

When you're offense is largely predicated upon missing shots and rebounding them, you're not going to go far against quality teams, which seems in line with what happened last season.

That's really not what the Grizzlies offense is "predicated" on, but (like lilOJMayo) you're entitled to your opinion.

[fishnc]

Memphis, top 5 in the West. Hmm.

Dallas, LA Lakers, New Orleans, Phoenix, San Antonio, Oklahoma and Denver all come IMMEDIATELY to mind as teams that are likely to be better than Memphis.

Houston and Portland come to mind as teams that could be better, if healthy.

Memphis was a sub-.500 team last year and didn't appreciably improve, AND they're about to marginalize Mike Conley by moving Mayo to PG, which will deflate his trade value and make him a useless asset, which isn't terribly clever. Memphis was some 10 games behind the 8th seed, so they'd have to make a HUGE leap forward just to MAKE the playoffs, let alone be a top 5 team.

Lest we forget, Memphis was an average offensive team (a little better than average, actually) and a below-average defensive squad. It bears mention that they're strength-of-schedule adjusted margin is a loss by more than a full point, which squares with them being a 40-win team.

Consider:

Memphis was below-average in team eFG% and TOV%, but they were the best offensive-rebounding team in the league, so they made up for their comparatively mediocre playmaking and shooting ability (terrible at 3pt and FT shooting) by pounding the second-chance opportunities, and as a result managed to draw a decent number of fouls.

They were terrible at FG defense (25th in the league in opp eFG%), about average at forcing turnovers, below average on the defensive glass and extremely good at not giving up the foul on defense... though they should have done that a lot more.

Now they've gone and added... what? Tony Allen and Xavier Henry?

An extra year isn't going to make any difference, Rudy Gay is still going to be mildly overrated. He isn't any better a playmaker or scorer, he just is what he is. Rudy's been a roughly identical player for three years now, there isn't any sense in projecting a major forward leap. He's cut down on the fouls and turnovers, but is in just about all other respects an identical player to what he was in 07-08, which doesn't project major improvement.

They have a sufficient NUMBER of scorers, but they don't have an elite scorer. Randolph and Mayo are good, definitely above-average scorers efficiency-wise. Gasol is an extremely efficient scorer, though he's not a volume guy. Mayo at the point, IF it works, could do a lot for their playmaking, but even if everything goes right, this isn't a top-5 team out West.

Too many other teams are NOTICEABLY better even if a lot less goes right for them.

This is a mad homer thread to start. Memphis is interesting, but not THAT interesting, barring something really unexpected going well for them.

Houston and Portland were both better last season despite being as unhealthy as they could probably possibly be.

[MilBucksBackOnTop06]

they look good on paper but it's still the grizzlies. Something will go wrong.

No.You beat me to it. Games are not won on paper. This team looks good on paper but they have no mettle too them. Zach is in a contract year and so is Gasol.
I like some of their players but no...too many teams are in the way for them to make a large leap and they have a bafoon of an owner.
The have a good group of players with a solid rotation but too many teams making the leap. They will take a step back. The push will come from the Clippers, Rockets, Blazers, Kings, to join the Lakers, Spurs, Mavericks and Jazz.

You have to be out of your cotton picking mind to think the Grizzlies will be a top 5 in the West!

#1. Lakers
#2. Thunder
#3. Spurs
#3. Mavericks
#4. Blazers
#5. Rockets
#6. Clippers

Denver could be in top 5 if they do not move Melo. No way the Grizzlies even get a top 8 in the West!
Gay is not a leader. Now that he is going to be the man, teams will key on him.
Wrong mix...

[tsherkin]

I should clarify this idea. Mike had a long leash his first few seasons because they wanted to boost his stock and confidence. But last year he had a long leash because nobody else could play the point.

I realize that the Memphis PG situation is pretty bad, if that's what you're driving after. I'm not trying to say that them marginalizing Conley is going to hurt them in terms of what their offense can do, only that I believe that if they don't run him out as they did last year, they'll hurt what trade value he has. It's a comparatively minor concern relative to the other problems they have, of course, and moving him is ultimately a good idea. If Mayo can become a competent starting PG, or even take on the duties for a few minutes here and there successfully, that will be an improvement for them.

By now, everyone knows that Conley isn't the most attractive asset. But having OJ at the point (a hypothetical that too many seem to be making a foregone conclusion) will have no effect on Conley or his "value" because OJ will only be playing the point when Mike is on the bench.

OK, that last bit makes more sense. If Mayo is only doing it when Conley's sitting anyhow, it doesn't matter.

That's really not what the Grizzlies offense is "predicated" on, but (like lilOJMayo) you're entitled to your opinion.

You know what I mean, I'm sure it's not their scheme to shoot terribly and go after the offensive boards, lol.

My point was more than that the success of their offense is founded upon their ability to clean up their own mistakes on offense. They aren't a good playmaking team, they aren't a good shooting team, they don't really do very much all that well on offense. Mayo and Gasol were pretty solid, of course, and fairly efficient (Mayo) or very much so (Gasol), so perhaps if they run the ball through those guys more and they maintain their efficiency, we'll see what can be done.

Their volume scorers are OK, not elite. Z-Bo is a decent player, but he's only marginally above league average in scoring efficiency, for example, and he doesn't create well for others. Rudy Gay was right at about league average and didn't display any unique or really creative elements to his offense, either as a scorer or in terms of a guy who could create for others. The only thing that the Grizz did on O that was average or better was offensive rebounding, which they did very well.

I'd be looking at using Z-Bo to move Conley and to get some kind of legitimate backcourt partner for Mayo, though, because this is a treadmill team with very little potential for upward movement and a lot of downward potential.

[Dr Positivity]

They won't get close.

Offensive efficiency basically comes down to your points inside and and from 3. Memphis last year was decent at scoring inside (but not great).. and ranked 30th in 3pters made. Conley, Mayo, Gay all have 3pt range, that 30th number tells me more that nobody's breaking down the defense and creating kickouts. They have no legit playmaker or consistent double drawer except for Zbo, and when the ball goes into him it doesn't come out. It's just hard to score efficiently without that meal ticket offensive guy who can set up open shots inside and outside

Add that to a non playoff caliber defense and to me there's a better chance of the Mayo Gay Zbo trio imploding chemistry wise and the Griz going back to a doormat, than making the playoffs

[mid-post]

You have to be out of your cotton picking mind to think the Grizzlies will be a top 5 in the West!

#1. Lakers
#2. Thunder
#3. Spurs
#3. Mavericks
#4. Blazers
#5. Rockets
#6. Clippers

Excellent "analysis" btw. Substantive and informative!