What's Carmelo's real trade value?

GooseDiddy · Post #1 » by **GooseDiddy** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 3:03 pm

A little history lesson...

When players who are the primary scorer for their team and are parenial all-star calibre players demand to be traded, or are forced out of town what is their actual trade value?

Carmelo scored 28.2/game last season. The 3 players in the past 40 years to do the same (roughly) and then get traded during the off season are:

-Tracy McGrady (28ppg) Traded from Orlando to Houston (along with some other players) for Steve Francis (16.6ppg), Cutino Mobley (15.8ppg) and Kelvin Cato (6.1ppg)
-Adrian Dantley (29.8ppg) Traded from Utah to Detroit for Kelly Tripucka (20ppg) and Kent Benson (6.5ppg)
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (30ppg) Traded from Milwaukee to LA for Elmore Smith (10.9ppg), Brian Winters (11.7ppg), and draft picks Dave Meyers (7.4ppg the following season) and Junior Bridgeman (8.6ppg the following season)

Arguably the most even trades involving an all-star being shipped out in the past 40 years have been:

-Charles Barkley (23.1ppg) for Jeff Hornacek (20.1ppg), Tim Perry (12.3 ppg) and Andrew Lang (7.7ppg)
-Ray Allen (21.3ppg) for Gary Payton (22.1ppg) and Desmond Mason (14.1ppg)
-Kevin Garnett (22.4ppg) for Al Jefferson (16ppg), Ryan Gomes (12.1ppg), Gerald Green (10.4ppg), Sebastian Telfair (6.1ppg) and Theo Ratliff (2.5ppg)

In all of these cases the team aquiring the superstar has obviously been more succesful. Many of the decent players who've been sacrificed for the elite level players haven't lasted long with the team they've been traded to either (Steve Francis 1.5 seasons, Tripucka 2 seasons, Hornacek 1.5 seasons, Payton 1.5 seasons)

The only real case you could make for a succesful superstar exodus is The Lakers getting Odom, Caron Butler, Brian Grant, and Jordan Farmar in return for Shaq. Odom and Farmar obviously played rolls in getting the past couple rings, but if weren't for Pau Gasol getting shipped for next to nothing and the fact that Kobe is Kobe; it's unlikely they would have had much effect. (Not to mention Shaq went and almost immediately won another title with Wade.)

So what is Melo's real trade value?

Stephen Jackson? Corey Maggette? Rudy Gay?

grippah26 · Post #2 » by **grippah26** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 4:04 pm

Another Melo trade thread that is going to get locked? C'mon guys :roll:

GooseDiddy · Post #3 » by **GooseDiddy** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 4:12 pm

No not a trade thread, not really anyway. I'm not looking for trade machine results, or matching salaries. Just an open discussion about where Melo's value lies. Does he demand anything better than what other teams have gotten in the past?

grippah26 · Post #4 » by **grippah26** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:31 pm

GooseDiddy wrote:No not a trade thread, not really anyway. I'm not looking for trade machine results, or matching salaries. Just an open discussion about where Melo's value lies. Does he demand anything better than what other teams have gotten in the past?

This is the definition of a trade thread are you serious? It's just worded differently than all the other 5 million ones on this board.

GooseDiddy · Post #5 » by **GooseDiddy** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:40 pm

Well then lock it, or delete it or whatever. Jesus, what a cry baby douche.

I went ahead and pasted it in the Melo trade thread that I CREATED...

Post #6 » by **The Rebel** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 8:31 pm

GooseDiddy wrote:A little history lesson...

When players who are the primary scorer for their team and are parenial all-star calibre players demand to be traded, or are forced out of town what is their actual trade value?

Carmelo scored 28.2/game last season. The 3 players in the past 40 years to do the same (roughly) and then get traded during the off season are:

So is PPG the only gauge of value for a player? You want a history lesson, let's really discuss these deals.

GooseDiddy wrote:-Tracy McGrady (28ppg) Traded from Orlando to Houston (along with some other players) for Steve Francis (16.6ppg), Cutino Mobley (15.8ppg) and Kelvin Cato (6.1ppg)

Steve Francis was a 5 time all star still in what should have been his prime. Mobley was a 15 ppg scorer that was as known for his defense as he was his offense. Cato was cap relief and a servicable big, that they later picked up a nice prospect for. Not a bad return for a guy who was showing signs of a bad back, and who publicly demanded a trade.

GooseDiddy wrote:-Adrian Dantley (29.8ppg) Traded from Utah to Detroit for Kelly Tripucka (20ppg) and Kent Benson (6.5ppg)

Dantley was known as a major problem in the locker room Kelly Tripucka was a 26 year old 2 time all star, that people thought may get better with a change of scenery. Kent Benson was a servicable big off the bench that Utah really needed.

GooseDiddy wrote:-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (30ppg) Traded from Milwaukee to LA for Elmore Smith (10.9ppg), Brian Winters (11.7ppg), and draft picks Dave Meyers (7.4ppg the following season) and Junior Bridgeman (8.6ppg the following season)

The Bucks got screwed on this deal, and took a decade to even begin to recover.

GooseDiddy wrote:Arguably the most even trades involving an all-star being shipped out in the past 40 years have been:

GooseDiddy wrote:-Charles Barkley (23.1ppg) for Jeff Hornacek (20.1ppg), Tim Perry (12.3 ppg) and Andrew Lang (7.7ppg)

This was a decent deal all around, especially considering the Barkley refused to play for anybody other then the Suns.

GooseDiddy wrote:-Ray Allen (21.3ppg) for Gary Payton (22.1ppg) and Desmond Mason (14.1ppg)

not a bad deal, outside of it being a Karl special of trading a young rising player for a declining PG and a decent prospect. Which is the reason Karl has very little control of player movement in Denver.

GooseDiddy wrote:-Kevin Garnett (22.4ppg) for Al Jefferson (16ppg), Ryan Gomes (12.1ppg), Gerald Green (10.4ppg), Sebastian Telfair (6.1ppg) and Theo Ratliff (2.5ppg)

You call this a fair deal, yet everybody called it in insider deal when it happened, and thought Garnett was worth much more. Either way if the Nuggets get a top big prospect, a solid young 6th man type, a young PG that had been traded for the 7th pick the prior year, cap relief, and a wildcard, I don't think anybody would be upset.

GooseDiddy wrote:In all of these cases the team aquiring the superstar has obviously been more succesful. Many of the decent players who've been sacrificed for the elite level players haven't lasted long with the team they've been traded to either (Steve Francis 1.5 seasons, Tripucka 2 seasons, Hornacek 1.5 seasons, Payton 1.5 seasons)

Steve Francis had injury problems.
Payton was declining when the Bucks got him, and everybody outside of the George Karl and the Bucks front office Knew the Bucks had been ripped off.
Tripucka could not get along with Layden and Karl Malone, and was picked up by the Hornet's in the expansion draft.

As for the trading team being less successful, usually the trade of a star leads to a rebuild, and there are plenty of teams involved who managed to rebuild pretty fast after the trades.

GooseDiddy wrote:The only real case you could make for a succesful superstar exodus is The Lakers getting Odom, Caron Butler, Brian Grant, and Jordan Farmar in return for Shaq. Odom and Farmar obviously played rolls in getting the past couple rings, but if weren't for Pau Gasol getting shipped for next to nothing and the fact that Kobe is Kobe; it's unlikely they would have had much effect. (Not to mention Shaq went and almost immediately won another title with Wade.)

So because the Lakers made another deal this is successful? Let's look at this deal and what the Lakers actually got. A young former rookie of the year SF who was seen as an almost sure fire multi-time all star, a young big who was in high demand, and had just put up solid numbers, cap relief, and draft picks. Yet some said that was not even enough when the deal was done.

By the way how do you define a team being successful? And how fast do you expect teams to rebuild?
The Magic have done pretty well after trading McGrady,

the Jazz had 17 straight playoff appearances including a couple of trips to the finals immediately after dahntley,

the Bucks still made the playoffs twice in a row after missing them the year before they traded Ray Allen.

In fact the only teams that did not get better immediately or recover pretty quickley were the

The Bucks when they traded Kareem

The wolves however they were not a playoff team, and have had 2 decades of bad management before and after the trade.

The 76ers, who had another case of extremly bad management for a long time after they lost Malone and Dr J. Not to mention they were another team that was already missing the playoffs prior to the trade being made.

GooseDiddy wrote:So what is Melo's real trade value?

Stephen Jackson? Corey Maggette? Rudy Gay?

Fact is if you are looking at PPG as your only measurement I could see why you would think this way. All those stars either were traded for other all stars or very packages of prospects, and most of them ended up a better team because of the moves they made.

Fact is based on your criteria, the team that did the worst was the Lakers, and I could see someone 20 years from now trying to make the exact same point you are based on the fact that Brian Grant was never worth while with the Lakers, Bulter was gone a year later, Odom was a 6th man, and Farmar was nothing more then an 8th or 9th man. Not to mention the Lakers took a huge step back from the champions to missing the playoffs after the trade.

Yoshi2kx · Post #7 » by **Yoshi2kx** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 1:03 am

You can throw most of those stats out the window; you won't get full trade value from most teams. Why? Because they'll just view it as a one year rental of Carmelo Anthony. Who would want that? Anthony would have to agree to sign an extention before anything happens. Other wise teams such as the Nets, Knicks or any other teams that may have capspace could just sign him in the off season, so why give up talent to get him now?

Hitman33 · Post #8 » by **Hitman33** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 3:22 am

^^^^^

What he said. Throw all those other situations out the window. Carmelo's trade value is even lower than any of those because of looming free agency.

hege53190 · Post #9 » by **hege53190** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 2:58 pm

I am a bucks fan and just wanted to see what you guys thought of Carmelo's trade value.

Anyway I want to set the record straight a little bit on the Bucks trades.

While the Jabbar trade did suck as a Bucks fan. They did it to keep peace. Jabbar didn't think Milwaukee had the culture to fit his new beliefs and he wanted to be traded to either Los Angelos or New York. When you have limited trade partners, it looks pretty good given the circumstances in hindsight.

Junior Bridgeman and Brian Winters are two of 7 players to have their numbers retired as Bucks.

I don't know where you guys are getting the decade plus to recover either.

They went to the playoffs 13 out of the next 16 seasons. Reaching the conference finals on 3 occasions. Losing to Birds Celtics twice and Dr. J's Sixers once. All three teams ended up being NBA Champs.

On the other hand I don't know one Bucks fan that thought the Ray Allen Trade was a good idea. Gary Payton only played a half season in Milwaukee. The moment he arrived you could tell he was no longer the glove. Him and Anthony Mason almost killed me ever paying attention to the NBA ever again.

Desmond Mason was an OK player but it was replacing a star player/team leader with a high energy piece. That is a bad trade especially when the star player wants to stay. That actually means something in Milwaukee.

Just wanted to correct the differing views of the trades.

I think you would be lucky to get a Jabbar package while I would be ready for at least one 20 win season if you get the Ray Allen package.

As for Melo what would it take to get him for the Bucks.

I know that he wouldn't re-sign but it would be fun for one year.

The package that I was thinking of are Ersan Illyasova, Larry Sanders, Michael Redd's expiring contract(I believe it is fully insured), an unprotected #1 in 2012 for Carmello and filler.

Post #10 » by **The Rebel** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:10 am

Hitman33 wrote:^^^^^

What he said. Throw all those other situations out the window. Carmelo's trade value is even lower than any of those because of looming free agency.

You should do a little research, Shaq, KG, and I believe Barkely were all expiring, and did not have to worry about a new cba offering probably cuts in their max deals.

almost famous · Post #11 » by **almost famous** » Sun Aug 22, 2010 2:16 am

Melo will not risk losing the money. His free agency has not hurt his value. If he does happen to choose free agency, he's a fool.

Mel0Knicks9 · Post #12 » by **Mel0Knicks9** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 3:31 am

Gallo,wilson,curry 2014 1st rounder 3 mill cash

Laowai · Post #13 » by **Laowai** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 1:59 am

The team that gets the best player always wins.
So who ever gets Melo will get the best of the deal.
Denver is in a better position than most teams at least he gave fair warning and a decent trade can be made ( if Melo signs an extension)
If not basically look at Toronto Cleveland, Phoenix.........TPE and a 1st.
If he signs a extension then value can be added will it equal his talent ( No )
But if the right partner can be located not Minny or Nets.
That they can absorb some unwanted players Martin and maybe Billups ( he is a good player but will want to be moved ) or Smith ( unfortunately he is very toxic but at least on an expiring)
For Denver it will be a almost total rebuild worse things than that.

DWadeno3 · Post #14 » by **DWadeno3** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:36 am

Mel0Knicks9 wrote:Gallo,wilson,curry 2014 1st rounder 3 mill cash

I don't envy Nuggets fans for their situation at all. :roll:

CrymeTime · Post #15 » by **CrymeTime** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:25 pm

send him to TO.

klemen4 · Post #16 » by **klemen4** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:37 pm

IMO Carmelo is 3th best real shooter at sf position. After Durant and Bryant...he sure is worth a lot, but in this situation in last year of his contract Denver really has bad carts in their hand...It all depends on him. He can basically pick the team or go in 2011.

NY imo is really front because of 2011 free cap room, with Chicago close second because of really good team.

I think the best NY package will be Curry and Tyson Chandler

CHI will offer every combination of players except Rose,Boozer,Noah.

ROSE
?
ANTHONY
BOOZER
NOAH

is amazing team.

IMO Denver should wait till february deadline and take the best CHI package...

Awoooga · Post #17 » by **Awoooga** » Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:40 am

Laowai wrote:If not basically look at Toronto Cleveland, Phoenix.........TPE and a 1st.

Phoenix did not get a first rounder, they actually gave up a second round pick to get the TPE. I believe Utah did the same thing, traded away picks to get the TE for Boozer. Toronto and Cleveland got pick because the sign and trades helped Miami fill out their roster (with non minimum players). NY or Chicago would not be in that situation next year.

old rem · Post #18 » by **old rem** » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:05 pm

Unlike LeBron, Melo is basically a volume scorer. He's not a big + on rebounds,defense,assists. He is expecting Max $ or close to it,and likely also wants to be on a GOOD team.

UN-Extended? He's not worth giving up FUTURE assets or a lot of CORE...which is what the Nugs want. SO......Denver needs to narrow it down to those teams Melo is happy to sign with and who are happy to pay him the $ he wants. How many teams will that be? THAT is huge. If the list is short...2-3 teams,then the Nugs don't have a lot of leverage. If the list is bigger, Denver can get a payoff for expediting. Say there's 5 teams in the pool, one may see it as well worth it to pay Den. to beat the odds. If it was just about 2 teams...each is playing hardball since they figure their odds are pretty good.

Post #19 » by **The Rebel** » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:32 pm

old rem wrote:Unlike LeBron, Melo is basically a volume scorer. He's not a big + on rebounds,defense,assists. He is expecting Max $ or close to it,and likely also wants to be on a GOOD team.

Melo is above average in rebounding, scoring, and assists. He is also average to above average on defense. If you had watched him play the last 2 years you would know this.

old rem wrote:UN-Extended? He's not worth giving up FUTURE assets or a lot of CORE...which is what the Nugs want. SO......Denver needs to narrow it down to those teams Melo is happy to sign with and who are happy to pay him the $ he wants. How many teams will that be? THAT is huge. If the list is short...2-3 teams,then the Nugs don't have a lot of leverage. If the list is bigger, Denver can get a payoff for expediting. Say there's 5 teams in the pool, one may see it as well worth it to pay Den. to beat the odds. If it was just about 2 teams...each is playing hardball since they figure their odds are pretty good.

Where have the Nuggets said they are trading Melo without him agreeing to an extension? Right now nobody really knows who is on the list, and who is not. We shall see what happens, as I doubt anybody wants this to drag on into training camp, which starts monday for the Nuggets.

SJSF · Post #20 » by **SJSF** » Fri Oct 8, 2010 1:44 pm

Actually, his value is pretty low. Considering he is on the last year of his contract and made it obvious he wants free agency. I am a SIxers fan. And knowing he won't sign in Philly. I would only trade something i don't mind getting rid of or something i have an extra of. If i had 2 first rounders i would offer one and cap filler. If i had a player or 2 i didn't want to resign like a Thad Young i would unload him in the deal. But to think that Denver will get a big return from a team that is going to lose him at the end of the year is crazy.