The Race to the Bottom, 2010 Edition

[Schad]

As much as I would like the Jays to finish out the season strong, we're once again in the position of having quite a bit to gain from scuffling to the end. Right now, the inverted standings of the teams around or below .500:

PIT: 48-97
SEA: 55-91
ARI: 58-88
BAL: 58-88
CLE: 59-86
KC: 60-85
WSN: 62-84
CHC: 65-81
MIL: 67-78
HOU: 70-76
LAA: 71-74
LAD: 72-74
DET: 72-74
OAK: 72-73

NYM: 73-73
TOR: 73-73

FLA: 73-72
STL: 74-70


So with sixteen games remaining, we're tied with the Mets for the fifteenth-worst record in baseball. Depending on how the team intends to play the off-season, that could be an extremely important number: pick in the top fifteen, and you can make a run at a Type-A free agent without losing your first rounder. Pick below that, and you'll be paying a hefty price, which makes signing a big name a terrible idea.

Let the race to the bottom begin!

[luvtheteam]

LAA: 71-74
LAD: 72-74
DET: 72-74
OAK: 72-73

NYM: 73-73
TOR: 73-73

FLA: 73-72
STL: 74-70

Wow...these teams in particluar....there's a lot of quality organizations here that are looking at bottome feeding this year! How the tides can turn.

[Randle McMurphy]

I don't know what is funnier...your sig or the quote under it.

To stay on topic, though, I have a bet that the Jays will finish with a better record than Oakland and I don't want to lose it, so I can't be cheering for losses.

[augustine]

I did not know that top 15 picks were protected from being lost via Free Agent signings. That is interesting.

[L3M0NAD3]

I say then we call up all our prospects to play and shut down the starters. Let us tank it and let the young guys get some major league experience.

[Schad]

I did not know that top 15 picks were protected from being lost via Free Agent signings. That is interesting.

Top 15 are protected, such that you'd lose your second rounder rather than the first. It made the 2006 spending binge more palatable; we had the 14th-worst record that year, which meant that we retained our pick (Travis Snider) even after signing Ryan and Burnett. Not that I expect that we'll go on a big spree, but if teams shy away from signing a Type-A guy and we gain multiple comp picks from our relievers and Buck, it opens the door for a value play.

[evilRyu]

I say then we call up all our prospects to play and shut down the starters. Let us tank it and let the young guys get some major league experience.

as much as it'd be great - Cito is old-school and wants to keep the "integrity" of the game.. This is all an attempt to hope that down the road, teams would return the favor.. I don't buy that logic to be honest..

[youngLion]

I don't know what is funnier...your sig or the quote under it.

I don't really post there much but I do read the current affairs board quite a bit. It's the only place on RGM that can match the Raps board in terms of pure retardation.

In terms of the Jays' wins and losses I don't particularly care at this point; I'm more concerned with Jose Bautista's home run count to be honest. Naturally in the grand scheme of things it'd be nice to get a slightly higher DP, but the MLB draft is a bit of a crapshoot anyway so I'm not that concerned about it either way.

[Kurtz]

Personally, the only type-A guy I'd want this off season is Manny, and I very much doubt that he'll get a qualifying offer, and thus cost no picks.

[Geddy]

Seeing all those teams with worse records than us kind of makes me less depressed about this team.

[Schad]

Personally, the only type-A guy I'd want this off season is Manny, and I very much doubt that he'll get a qualifying offer, and thus cost no picks.

Yeah, there aren't many that I'd want, either. But I don't think that it'd hurt to have the leverage (plus, picking 3-5 spots higher each round would be a bonus).

[number15]

wow, never saw it that way....... I thought the JAYS were doing great, but after seeing the other teams we are around, its scary

i guess cause the experts had us being worse than the Baltimore Orioles early on, so maybe expectaion were too low.

[Schad]

wow, never saw it that way....... I thought the JAYS were doing great, but after seeing the other teams we are around, its scary

i guess cause the experts had us being worse than the Baltimore Orioles early on, so maybe expectaion were too low.

We were doing extremely well (sixth-best in MLB in third-order wins and all that), but we were playing above our heads...our schedule down the stretch was/is tough, and when our offense came back to earth at the same time that the young staff was tiring, we plummeted.

All in all, still a damned good season, but it does speak to why several of us were cautioning against rooting for AA to make a big move or five in search of a playoff spot.

[rtcaino]

How would tie breakers work?

it's looking pretty jumbled there in the middle of the pack.

it would be very cool to finish with an over 500 record and a protected top pick.

[Schad]

How would tie breakers work?

it's looking pretty jumbled there in the middle of the pack.

it would be very cool to finish with an over 500 record and a protected top pick.

The previous year's record is the tiebreaker...we dropped two spots last year as a result.

And nice though it is to finish the season strong, we've now dropped to a tie for 16th with Detroit and St. Louis; we had a worse record than both last year, but we're now two games back of the top 15, with 18th as our effective floor.

[Schad]

Something else that I'd forgotten...because three players failed to sign last year, we could be picking as low as 21st in the first round if we outplay the Cards.

upshot is that it looks like a deep draft, so there'll be talent available. The downside is also that it looks like a good draft, and unless you get bonus sliders (and the team is willing to pay a high price for one guy) our last ten games might have dropped us 6-8 slots, out of a position where we would have a greater range of top talent from which to choose.

[SharoneWright]

Something else that I'd forgotten...because three players failed to sign last year, we could be picking as low as 21st in the first round if we outplay the Cards.

upshot is that it looks like a deep draft, so there'll be talent available. The downside is also that it looks like a good draft, and unless you get bonus sliders (and the team is willing to pay a high price for one guy) our last ten games might have dropped us 6-8 slots, out of a position where we would have a greater range of top talent from which to choose.

Thanks for keeping on top of this...

Maybe we "fail to agree" with our first rounder, and use the money in Latin America...

[DonYon]

Something else that I'd forgotten...because three players failed to sign last year, we could be picking as low as 21st in the first round if we outplay the Cards.

upshot is that it looks like a deep draft, so there'll be talent available. The downside is also that it looks like a good draft, and unless you get bonus sliders (and the team is willing to pay a high price for one guy) our last ten games might have dropped us 6-8 slots, out of a position where we would have a greater range of top talent from which to choose.

But I would assume that in baseball picking early or late isn't really a big deal right? especially when we've seen so many top picks barely even make the big leagues and we also see so many late round picks go on to become hall of fame players. This isn't like the NBA where it's very rare to find decent talent outside the top 20 pick. Besides, some 1st round talents always seem to drop down because of signability questions and whatnot.

[SharoneWright]

Jays are losing this race to the bottom.

[Randle McMurphy]

Jays are losing this race to the bottom.

And I won my bet.

The Jays were always too good to finish in the bottom half of the league.