Hollinger forecast: Raptors 22-60 (could be worst)

[D-Wins-RingsIMO]

Even if Jersey doesn't get 'Melo, 22 wins is almost a lead pipe lock for 15th in the East.

I read a season preview by a stathead on another forum that evaluated Bosh to be worth 9 wins. Seems reasonable. Depending on how you look at it, Kleiza is either a near even swap to Turk, or at worst another 2-3 losses. The rest of the roster is pretty much a wash (unless Barbosa goes back into 6th man of year, which you can't assume).

That's how most ppl are putting us at just under 30 wins, and I expect the Vegas line to be somewhere around the 27-28 mark.

to put Bosh at worth 18 wins is insane, based on every piece of public data. I mean last year was the best of his career by miles and the range of wins it would translate to is 5-11 depending on what metric you used (and the ones you use to get to 11 wins are trash and are influenced a lot by the fact that we had a bunch of muppets on the floor when it comes to rebounding ..... and you can't tease out the diminishing returns of defensive boards).

Saying Bosh is worth 18 wins is a bit much. There are probably only 3 players in the league worth 18+ ..... Bron, Wade and Dwight H.

[D-Wins-RingsIMO]

Then again there's a pretty big unknown in how Triano is going to run the team with Bosh gone.

We had the 6th rated offense last year. A lot of that had to go to the skill of the players, but I'm sure Jay also deserves some credit.

Lets see what happens when there's no safety blankie, ie. "dump it to Bosh".

If Triano is in over his head perhaps this thing crumbles really really badly. But if he's even an ok offensive tactician we should still be barely acceptable.

A 22 win team is like epically bad

[Ripp]

Can you link to that season preview? What methodology does he use?

[SDM]

I read that as between 22-60 wins and was going to post a rant about how he gets paid to spew things like this out.

[mowcrowbar]

Honestly I don't know why you guys even expect anything different from Hollinger.

[Fenris-77]

Apparently, defense will be the problem again:

Not breaking news here, but the Raptors are softer than chenille. The starting center shrinks from contact and spends most of the game camped out on the perimeter, while the starting power forward is 6-9, 210 pounds and about as strong as decaf.

Anyone who doesn't know that Amir is no longer 6'9 and 210 can be safely ignored as completely uninformed.

[allenyang]

Yea 22 is a lil harsh. I high 20s to low 30s are the amount of wins we'll get this yr.

25-27 is my prediction either way we're getting a high pick this year and we'll use it one Kyrie Irving

p.s. If we are in a position to take pg or a sf do you still take Kyrie??

Harrison Barnes raptors rookie season: 22 pts, 6 reb, 3.8 ast, book it!

[Basketball_Jones]

It isn't just simply losing Bosh being the difference of 18 wins. We all should know this. The east gets stronger while this team gets weaker. It's not that hard to believe.

[Vorticity]

In Hollinger we trust!

[Ripp]

to put Bosh at worth 18 wins is insane, based on every piece of public data. I mean last year was the best of his career by miles and the range of wins it would translate to is 5-11 depending on what metric you used (and the ones you use to get to 11 wins are trash and are influenced a lot by the fact that we had a bunch of muppets on the floor when it comes to rebounding ..... and you can't tease out the diminishing returns of defensive boards).

Well, using APM and Pyth Wins, as well as the 2600 minutes that CB played last year, he seems to be worth roughly 12 or 13 wins:

Code: Select all

octave:20> a=(100+6.97*2600/(48*82))
a =  104.60
octave:21> b=100
b =  100
octave:22> (a^14/(a^14+b^14))*82-41
ans =  12.508


(Note that his APM has been pretty consistent over the past 3 or 4 years...somewhere in the 6-8 range)

Combine this with the overachieving the team did last year (36 or 37 wins based on efficiency differential), and it wouldn't be surprising if the team won 24 or 25 games. I dunno, I could see a more refined analysis giving 20...Hollinger might not be far off from the truth.

[Lionel Messi]

25-27 is my prediction.

[novi13]

Not a chance. You're not telling me you can imagine the team being this much worse than last year. Insanity.

Do the math.

Raptors:
Subtractions:
Overweight Turkoglu
Defense-Allergic Bosh
Inconsistent Marco Beli
Bosh "Distraction"
Rookie tag on DeRozan

Additions:
Ed Davis (who is not 210 pounds at all, much closer to 230-235 with a fairly solid base)
Linas
Barbosa
Second Year DeRozan
Less Jose in the lineup
More minutes for Amir Johnson
One year more experienced/better Weems
Perhaps a renewed Bargnani..another year older,stronger,wiser and finally not playing with a black-hole next to him like Bosh

If I am correct in my belief that Bosh hindered ball movement, hurt interior defense and generally disrupted chemistry with his off court distractions, inability to play with the team (20,10, allstar, MVP crap).. and his lack of willingness to foul to protect his stats and thus making us softer on the inside..

and I'm also correct in saying that
Less Calderon=better defense
Barbosa will have a bounce back year
Turk was much worse than Linas overall, esp as a rebounder and shooter
DeRozan, Weems and Johnson will show to be much better
the chemistry with Jack/Linas/Bargnani as leaders will be better than with Bosh +co
Turk was a distraction and caused the team to be worse
Triano may finally be more able to do what's best for the team with "keeping BOsh" goal out of the way

then the Raptors should not be MUCH worse than they were last year. In fact,

if you believe as I do that Bosh wasn't as good a rebounder as Ed Davis/Amir Johnson and those 2 are replacing him, and if you also accept that they are much much better shot blockers than he was,

then the only thing that could translate to a sub-40 win season is..
1. Bargnani completely failing to deal with double teams.. which I think is possible, and won't be a problem past January but could hurt the Raptors to start off..
2. With a lack of true NUMBER 1 option, the team has chemistry problems regardless
3. the East is a LOT better than it was last year with Boston, Miami..maybe even the Wizards being a lot better..

then.. I would say..
32-34 wins is realistic.

If Bargnani doesn't struggle as many feel he will and actually does start rebounding as he vowed he would.. Ed Davis actually plays to the level he's capable of without getting injured and DeRozan takes dramatic steps forward and perhaps.. one player surpasses expectations.. Wright..Johnson..Weems..Barbosa.. and Jack just stays steady..

it isn't impossible for this team to squeeze into 7th or 8th place. Unlikely? probably. but 22 wins.. really really showing a lack of faith. If EVERYTHING goes wrong.. this team will win 23-26 games. 22 is just.. pathetic. We're not THAT bad.. and Bosh was not THAT good.

[RaptikPride]

this team will win 29 games book it, quote it, copyright it, patent and, stamp, seal and deliver it!

[tsherkin]

If Triano is in over his head perhaps this thing crumbles really really badly. But if he's even an ok offensive tactician we should still be barely acceptable.

He hasn't shown any indication that he's a capable tactician in any respect, so I wouldn't hold out hope.

If one were to go by win shares, Bosh was worth about 9.6 wins last year and we won 40 games. So if you go by straight subtraction (and ignoring the sticky details of the other players we've gained and how others will fill the void and such), we should be expected to win around 29-31 games just based on that crude analysis, based on Bosh's second-best season with us (by WS, anyhow, his 07-08 campaign was better despite fewer games).

We're going to have to see some HUGE step-ups from Amir, Jack, Jose and Bargs (the next-best, according to WS) in order to fill that void, and/or Kleiza is going to have to come in and smoke it.

Unless Kleiza's a lot better than he looked in Denver, which is possible, he's a 3-5 WS kind of player. That'll blunt the loss of Bosh to a point, because he's been a noticeably-above-average offensive player in his NBA career, but he's been unimpressive defensively. Not horrible, but not really an impact defender. Again, he's had a European career that may have seriously changed the nature of his game, and coming to us may change based on the lineup around him and everything.

It bears mention that he's been fairly unimpressive past 10 feet for most of his NBA career. He's had little spurts where he could stick shots from outside (mostly the one year where he was randomply an 85% FT shooter and 38% 3P shooter), but he's usually only a decent FT shooter with a middlingshot past 10 feet most years and no great shakes in the post, either.

At least thus far.


Purportedly, his time spent in Greece was time spent focusing on learning how to play in the post, muscling up, etc. I don't know how well a 6'8 dude without top-flight athleticism is going to do down there, but we're projecting to play him at the 3, so he'll have a size advantage on some nights, and be outclassed athletically on others.

If Kleiza comes in playing some strong post-up ball for us at the 3 and occasionally stretching the defense with some range, then that'll be nice. If he gives us even 16 ppg (which would be a career-high by a notable margin, something like +37%), that would blunt the loss of both quite significantly.

He's the big X-factor, barring a major addition in the future, as far as our shot at the kind of pick we really need or winning 33 games, grabbing the 8th pick and treading water again.

1. Raps biggest strength is shooting, biggest weakness is interior D.

Well, the second part is certainly true, we're going to be balls on D again unless something significant changes. Is the first part true?

Bargs is a good shooter and Jack had a great season last year, a career-year in fact. I expect a regression back to around 34, 35% from downtown, which is more in-line with what he's done in years past, but it's possible he maintains. We lost Belli and Hedo (who, for all his faults, was still a 37%+ 3pt shooter). Jose's a careful but valuable shooter. Demar and Weems couldn't hit from downtown to save their lives, Wright was average and Banks blew. We lost Bosh; he was extremely important as far as shooting range because, while not a 3pt shooter, he took a lot of deep 2s that spaced the floor, and he was a very good perimeter shooter.

I guess how Kleiza and Barbosa perform will be huge for how we look as a shooting squad, and really determine if it's a strength or not. Kleiza's got a short career, so it's hard to project, but he's been up and down as a shooter and wasn't particularly good from past 10 feet in most years of his career, with a clear downward trend... and he's coming to us after not focusing all that much on his outside shooting, muscling up (which tends to negatively impact shooting) and shooting 35% on international 3s in the competition this summer (20 FGAs only, limited sample), which is in-line with how he shot at that range earlier in his career, suggesting minimal improvement, if any at all.

Barbosa will help us at the line, but he's also been injured a lot the last couple of years (and the three years before the two healthy seasons he had), so he's hard to gauge. Up and down as a 3pt shooter, he's pretty nasty just under the arc, though, so that should help, as long as we don't expect him to do a lot of creative scoring. He's a craptacular point guard and a very limited isolation player (head-down drives and set jumpers are his forte), but he should help open up the floor, especially if he's healthy.

3. Hardly mentions Weems, DeRozan

Why bother? DeRozan was universally uninteresting in his ability last year. Dunked nicely when he was all alone, showed some heart, but doesn't really scream "impact player" in any capacity. If he's suddenly learned how to handle the ball when he has to make more than one dribble, I'll be pleasantly surprised. Weems had a nice year... looks decent, could stand to dramatically improve his FT shooting, and he'll probably regress some because he was lights-the-hell-out from a couple of spots on the floor that were likewise at odds with his career numbers and overall shooting package. Decent bench guys, barring a major evolution in their games.

9. Says Raps may prefer to let Bosh TPE expire rather than eat into next season's cap space.

God, I hope so.

10. Liked Hedo trade, Anderson trade was benign, so was Marco for Wright.

Barring a major evolution, he's also a really uninteresting player with a limited skillset that can't really take advantage of his considerable physical gifts.

12. Forecasts lots of lopsided losses. Without Bosh, offence will fall to around league average while defence will continue to be one of the worst.

I'm pegging us 16th-18th on offense unless Kleiza has a really good year and/or Bargs makes a big leap forward.

[L3M0NAD3]

I find it funny that he dismisses the Kleiza pickup purely due to his Euroleague stats and how they apparently translate to essentially what he did with Denver before.

Anyone who knows basketball, knows the Euroleague is not stats driven and everything revolves around team play. The best player in the league probably wont average 20ppg but that doesnt mean anything when it comes to the overall aspect of the game.

Clearly he didn't watch the FIBA Worlds or any of that.
I swear, I dont think he actually watches basketball and just looks at boxscores and does his calculations based purely on that.

Although, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with his overall projection of 22 wins, I foresee between 22-27 wins with anything more being a bonus, I just completely disagree with his points and rationale behind the projection.

[Scott Carefoot]

It's not just that the Raptors got worse, the rest of the conference got better. Last season, the Raptors went 2-1 against the Bulls, 4-0 against the Pistons, 2-2 against the Heat, 4-0 against the Nets, 4-0 against the Knicks, 3-1 against the Sixers and 2-1 against the Wizards. I can see 10-12 more losses coming against those teams alone. We can also assume that the Clippers and Hornets will be better if their star players are healthy, and the Raptors went 4-0 against those teams last season.

I'm predicting 27-29 wins for the 2010-11 Raptors, but a 22-60 prediction isn't outrageous to me. I really can't make a strong case that another team in the East is definitively worse.

[AlvinWilliams_fan]

oh well raps are going to win the championship in my 2k11 game thats all that matters

[dagger]

It's not just that the Raptors got worse, the rest of the conference got better. Last season, the Raptors went 2-1 against the Bulls, 4-0 against the Pistons, 2-2 against the Heat, 4-0 against the Nets, 4-0 against the Knicks, 3-1 against the Sixers and 2-1 against the Wizards. I can see 10-12 more losses coming against those teams alone. We can also assume that the Clippers and Hornets will be better if their star players are healthy, and the Raptors went 4-0 against those teams last season.

I'm predicting 27-29 wins for the 2010-11 Raptors, but a 22-60 prediction isn't outrageous to me. I really can't make a strong case that another team in the East is definitively worse.

And they went 0-2 against the Suns, 1-3 against Cleveland, 0-2 against GSW, if the Nets get Anthony then 0-2 against Denver has reversal possibilities while NJ will not be a power, and there are other teams which will have injuries. There will be the chance to beat teams on the second games of back to backs for opponents. I can see the decline from 40 to 30, but 22 is too low.

[HomieOmey]

Seriously. I can see us being worse, but it's hard to imagine us losing so many more games than last season. Barbosa and Kleiza are replacing Hedo, which is a pretty huge upgrade considering how little Hedo did and how unmotivated he was. I can't see Bosh being the difference between 40 wins and 22 wins. Especially with Jose hopefully healthier and DD a year older.

Again. We should be worse. We lost talent and our conference got better. Still, 18 more losses for basically just losing Bosh? Not too sure about that. I won't count it out, but I also won't count out the possibility of getting closer to 30 wins (give or take another 5).

[Ted Lasso]

Second, during free agency the Raptors proudly leaked the news that they'd agreed to a two-year, $9 million sign-and-trade deal with Orlando for Matt Barnes. There was only one problem -- it wasn't legal under the salary cap, starting with the word "two" (sign-and-trade deals must be for at least three years) and extending to the dollars and the involvement of Orlando. It was shocking to see an NBA front office foul up something so rudimentary (although one could argue that would explain a lot about Toronto). In reality, the most the Raptors could have legally offered was just $6 million over three years, so Barnes eventually signed with the Lakers instead.

Embarrassing